Delta Region Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and ... · 12/7/2018 · VA/AS Project...
Transcript of Delta Region Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and ... · 12/7/2018 · VA/AS Project...
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Delta Region Climate Change VulnerabilityAssessment and Adaptation Strategy
Integrated Climate Adaptation and Resiliency Program (ICARP)
Quarterly Technical Advisory Council (TAC) Meeting, December 7th, 2018
Kate Anderson, Senior Environmental Planner
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Where is the Delta?
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Presentation Overview
• Project Background
• Project Overview
• Conceptual Framework
• Goals
• Process
• Example management questions and initial scoping
• Discussion
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Who is the Delta Stewardship Council?
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Climate Project Background
• Climate change in the Delta Reform Act:
• “the future impact of climate change and sea level rise” in restoration planning to 2100
• “the effects of climate change and sea level rise on the three state highways that cross the Delta”
• Climate change in the Delta Plan
• 2 regulatory policies: restoration planning, some residential development
• 5 recommendations: i.e. update Suisun Marsh Plan
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Advances since 2013:
Science• Updated OPC Sea Level Rise Guidance (2018)
• California 4th Climate Change Assessment
• Science Action Agenda (tidal marsh locations over time, water/natural resource mgmt)
Regulations• Delta Plan amendments
• EO B-30-15, SB 379, SB 246, AB 398
• Local government plans (Solano, San Joaquin, Sacramento, Yolo, Contra Costa, Stockton)
Policy• San Francisco Bay Conservation and
Development Commission (BCDC) Adapting to Rising Tides (ART) for Eastern Contra Costa
• SWRCB 2017 Climate Resolution
Council embarking on VA/AS to better understand climate change vulnerabilities and potential adaptation strategies in the Delta to support the achievement of the coequal goals
A synthesis of over 200 journal articles and technical reports on climate change as it relates to ecosystem restoration was conducted
in early 2018 to support the Delta Plan Ecosystem Amendment
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Conceptual Framework for Climate Project
Goals, Roles, Process
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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment andAdaptation Strategy
Goals, Roles, and Process
B a l a n c e d A p p r o a c h
Society and Equity Economy Environment Governance
More Reliable
Water Supply
Ecosystem Restoration
Protect / Enhance Delta
as Evolving Place
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VA/AS Project OverviewPhase 1: Vulnerability Assessment• Characterize climate change impacts and risk
• SLR, precip/ runoff patterns, air / water temps
• On assets including:
• residents, disadvantaged communities, agriculture, community facilities and services, land uses, water management / flood control, parks /recreation, transportation, natural resources, and energy / fuel supply
Phase 2: Adaptation Strategy
• Evaluate potential responses that could be implemented that would achieve resilience goals
Process:• Technical Advisory Committee (TAC)• Stakeholder workgroup• Council engagement• Public awareness / communications plan
Deliverables
• VA Assessment
• AS with:• High priority adaptation responses• Assessed costs/benefits• Financing • Governance• Council role
• TAC workgroup /workshops• Stakeholder workgroups / workshops • VA/AS public communication materials
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VA/AS General Process
1. Identify Management Questions: What is of interest to Delta stakeholders
2. Prioritize Questions: Input from TAC / stakeholders on scope and criteria
3. Analysis Approach: Identify appropriate methods (ie modeling) to address priority management questions
4. Assess Vulnerabilities
5. Develop Potential Adaptation Options
6. Prioritize Adaptation Options
Multiple Levels of Engagement
• Technical Advisory Committee (TAC)
• Stakeholder workgroup
• Council engagement
• Public awareness / communications plan
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VA/AS Timeline
Nov 2018: First TAC Meeting
Spring 2019: Begin Vulnerability Assessment and Stakeholder outreach
Fall 2019: Conclude Vulnerability Assessment, Begin Adaptation Strategy
Spring 2020: Draft Adaptation Strategy
Summer/ Fall 2020: Final Adaptation Strategy
June, 2018: Council approved VA/AS project
Fall 2019: Scope Vulnerability Assessment Approach
Implement Adaptation
Strategy
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Example VA Management Questions
Water Surface Elevations
• How would inundation of various Delta polders affect water supply/water quality?
• What are the implications for carryover storage of preserving/modifying salinity regulations?
• Which polders are most at risk from overtopping from SLR & inflows? And what assets/populations would be flooded?
• What is the impact to habitat types (intertidal, upland refugia, etc)?
• What parcels should be acquired for restoration?
Water Quality
• What are water quality impacts from upper watershed degradation?
Climate/Economic/Social
• What is the cost to achieve PL 84-99, HMP, and other levee standards at higher water levels?
• What are the crop yield / productivity losses from temperature / precipitation/water quality changes?
• How vulnerable are Delta communities to extreme temperatures?
• How could air temperature affect recreational opportunities?
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Potential ICARP TAC Engagement:
• Project Guidance
• Periodic updates as progress through the Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Strategy
• Resources and Outreach
• Adaptation Clearinghouse
• Alignment with best available science and policy
• Local government engagement
• CivicSpark Fellow
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Acknowledgements
Cory Copeland
Dan Constable
Jeff Henderson
Matt Kubasak
Jessica Law
Ron Melcer
Andrew Schwarz