Delivering to the Energy Marketplace - Texas Harvests Wind and Solar
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Transcript of Delivering to the Energy Marketplace - Texas Harvests Wind and Solar
Principal Solar Institute
Ron SeidelDirector, Principal Solar
Ron Seidel is principal of RBS Energy Consulting, working with private equity, investment banks, and government on electric energy issues primarily in the ERCOT market. Previously, he was president of Texas Independent Energy, senior vice president of Energy Supply at City Public Service of San Antonio, and an executive at TXU where he was senior vice president of Fossil Generation and Mining, president of TXU Energy Trading, and operations manager at the Comanche Peak Nuclear Plant.
Delivering to the Energy Marketplace -Texas Harvests Wind and Solar
ERCOT Facts & Figures200,000 Square Miles >43,000 miles of High Voltage Transmission>74,000 MW Peak Capacity~12,000 MW of wind capacity <200 MW utility scale solar capacity 69,783 MW Peak Load (August 10, 2015)– Increase of 3,356 MW over 2014 Peak Load (5.1%)
13.75% Target Reserve Margin
Source: ERCOT
Texas Ties to Mexico and the Eastern Interconnection
Source: RBS Energy Consulting
Wind13% Hydro,
biomass, other1%
Nuclear 7%
Coal23%
Natural Gas56%
Installed Capacity2011
Wind14%
Hydro, biomass, other
1%Nuclear
6%
Coal24%
Natural Gas55%
Installed Capacity2014
69,704 Megawatts 73,910 Megawatts
ERCOT Capacity2011 and 2014
Source: ERCOT
Wind8%
Hydro, biomass, other
1%Nuclear
12%
Coal39%
Natural Gas40%
Energy Produced2011
Wind11%
Hydro, biomass, other
1%Nuclear
12%
Coal36%
Natural Gas41%
Energy Produced2014
335,000 Gigawatt-hours 340,000 Gigawatt-hours
ERCOT Energy2011 and 2014
Source: ERCOT
Reliability Values
Gas/Coal/Nuclear
West Texas Wind
Coastal Wind Current Solar Future Solar0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%100%
12%
56%
100%
70%
Reliability %
ERCOT Load Growth
ERCOT Average Load Growth 2016 – 2025 is 1.3% or about 1,000 MW per year
Equivalent to–One nuclear plant each year–Two coal plants each year–Two combined cycle gas plants each year
Sources: ERCOT , RBS Energy Consulting
ERCOT Reserve MarginsDecember 2012 Report
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0 13.2
10.9 10.5
8.5 8.47.1
5.04.1 3.6
2.8
Target =13.75%
%
Source: ERCOT
ERCOT Reserve MarginsMay 2015 Report
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20250.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
17.018.5
21.4
18.717.1
16.114.6
13.211.8
10.4
Target =13.75%
%
Source: ERCOT
Potential Solar Capacity2022
Long Term Assessment for the ERCOT Region, December 2012
2029 ERCOT Generation
51%
25%
9%
9%6%
%
Natural Gas
Coal
Wind
Nuclear
Solar
Source: 2014 Long-Term Assessment for the ERCOT Region,December 2014
Percent Energy by Source
2014 2018 2021 2024 2027 20290
20
40
60
80
100
41 46 51 49 51 51
36 31 27 28 26 25
12 11 11 10 9 9
10 12 11 11 10 92 4 6
SolarWindNuclearCoalNatural Gas
Source: 2014 Long-Term Assessment for the ERCOT Region,December 2014
Solar PV Cost History
Source: NREL / DOE
Capital Cost by Generation Technology
Nuclear Coal Solar PV Wind Natural Gas CC
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
Capital Cost ($/kW)
Capital Cost ($/kW)
ERCOT Wind Zones
Source: ERCOT
Texas Solar Intensity
U.S. Solar PV Capacity
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Meg
awatt
s DC
Achievable Solar PV Energy in Texas
Reference: ERCOT Peak Load ~70 GW
Urban PV = 154 GW (13% of U.S. Total)Rural PV = 20,000 GW (14% of U.S. Total)
Achieving just 1% of this capability would produce over 200 GW or almost three times the current ERCOT maximum load.
Sources: NREL, RBS Energy Consulting
Source: ERCOT
ERCOT Transmission
CREZ Program
A CREZ is a geographic area with optimal conditions for the economic development of wind power generation facilities
Enabled by Senate Bill 20, passed in 2005 Designed to move wind electricity from
West Texas to the more heavily populated areas
Allow transmittal of about 18,500 MW wind
CREZ Metrics
2008$4.97 Billion
2963 miles
109 Projects
2015$6.9 Billion
+39%3589 miles
+21%169 Projects
+55%
Source: ERCOT
CREZ Transmission Additions
Source: ERCOT
CREZ in Prime Solar Area
Source: ERCOT
ERCOT Transmission + CREZ Lines
Source: ERCOT
Impact of Solar generation on the 2029 summer hourly load
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
Load Solar Net Load
Source: ERCOT 2014 Long Term System Assessment Report
Solar Synergy with Load
0:00
1:00
2:00
3:00
4:00
5:00
6:00
7:00
8:00
9:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
System Load Wind Generation Solar Generation
Hour
Syst
em Lo
ad (M
W)
Gene
ratio
n (M
W)
ERCOT Load
Wind Profile
Solar Profile
Source: RBS Energy Consulting
Solar Synergy with Load
0:002:00
4:006:00
8:0010:00
12:0014:00
16:0018:00
20:0022:00
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000System Load Solar Wind Solar + Wind MW
Source: RBS Energy Consulting
MW
Solar, Wind and Natural Gas
Summary Demand for electricity in Texas is growing ERCOT has a large renewable portfolio
– Currently almost 12,000 MW of wind is in operation – Less than 200 MW of utility scale solar PV operating
Texas has an enormous solar PV opportunity CREZ transmission supports wind and solar Solar PV has a higher capacity value than wind and is
synergistic with load Solar costs are nearing grid parity and and continue to fall ERCOT provides a unique opportunity to combine solar , wind
and natural gas generation
Questions and Discussion
Ron SeidelDirector, Principal Solar
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