Deep dive into Baby categories Impact on... · 2020-06-07 · of-stocks, strains on the supply...
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This artwork was created using Nielsen data. Copyright © 2020 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. COVID-19 OUTBREAK Nielsen Investigation of Impacts on FMCG trends A holistic approach across the Globe Update: March 16, 2020
Transcript of Deep dive into Baby categories Impact on... · 2020-06-07 · of-stocks, strains on the supply...
This artwork was created using Nielsen data.
Copyright © 2020 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
COVID-19 OUTBREAKNielsen Investigation of Impacts on FMCG trends
A holistic approach across the Globe
Update: March 16, 2020
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CONTENT
COVID-19: WHERE WE STAND
FMCG RECOVERY
COVID-19: IMPLICATIONS
FROM DIFFERENT MARKETS
WHAT’S GOING ON?
HOW WOULD IT IMPACT?
WHAT’S NEXT?
COVID-19
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>169K CASES IN 118 COUNTRIES AND GROWING…
Photo credit: Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://infographics.channelnewsasia.com/covid-19/map.html
The World Health Organisation has raised the global risk level to “VERY HIGH”
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COVID-19 KEEPS ON SPREADINGItaly leads with (24,747) registered cases followed by Spain (7,845) and Germany (5,813)
Real time 14/03/2020 https://infographics.channelnewsasia.com/covid-19/map.html
This artwork was created using Nielsen data.
Copyright © 2020 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
COVID-19 IMPACTSImportant implications to consider in 2020
Benchmarks across markets
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“NIELSEN’S INITIAL INVESTIGATION ACROSS MAJOR
COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD HAS FOUND SIGNIFICANT
SPIKES IN THE HOARDING OF EMERGENCY SUPPLIES...”
• Across countries, Nielsen has recorded record-breaking sales of health-safety
products, such as medical masks and sanitizers, but we’ve also seen a ripple effect
triggering broader consumer purchase behaviors as the number of reported
COVID-19 cases increase around the world.
• There were identified six threshold levels, based on early indicators across markets
(though at different times as the virus outbreak evolves at different rates in different
geographies). Each one correlates with different levels of consumption, but there are
some common timing elements, which are primarily driven by news cycles.
COVID-19
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COVID-19 IS CHANGING CONSUMERS BEHAVIOR
ItalyVietnam
25% increased
their online
shopping
25% reduced
their OOH
consumption
50% reduced
their frequency
of visiting stores
45% stock more
food at home
94% check news
at least once a day
35% reduced
eating out of home
% survey participants, February 2020:
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PERSONAL HYGIENE & PRESERVED FOOD ARE DRIVING FMCG
FranceItalyVietnamSingapore
+162%Multi-
vitamins
+24%Noodles
+22%Frozen
Packaged
Food
+528%Liquid
Antiseptic
+145%Wet Wipes
-32%Chocolate
-23%Beer &
Lager
-17%Ice-cream
-31%Make-up
-25%Lip Care
+29%Hand Soap
+24%Thermometers
+112%Pharma
Hygiene
+33%Rice
+29%Canned
Food
+25%Pasta
+70%
Cereals
+100%
Pasta & Canned Food
+40%
Bottled
Water
+11%
Pet
Food
Value Sales change % vs average February 2019:
+67%Noodles
+40%Frozen
Food
+78%Mouth
Wash
+45%Personal
Wash
+35%Personal
Wash
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GLOBAL TRENDS TO CAPITALIZE ON
Stockpiling supplies E-Commerce
People are trying to reduce
their exposure to others
Personal
Pharma HygieneTourism, aviation,
transportation
Canned goods, flour, pasta,
bottled water, cereals
Rapid growth on all
markets, especially in the
affected countries
The most affected industries
causing logistic challenge
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#1
Proactive Health-
Minded Buying
#2
Reactive Health
Management
#3
Pantry Preparation
#4
Quarantined Living
Preparation
#5
Restricted Living
#6
Living a New Normal
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR SHIFTS
Interest rises in
products that support
overall maintenance
of health and
wellness.
Prioritize products
essential to virus
containment, health
and public safety. E.g.
face masks
Pantry stockpiling of
shelf-stable foods and
a broader assortment
of health-safety
products; spike in
store visits; growing
basket sizes.
Increased online
shopping, a decline in
store visits, rising out-
of-stocks, strains on
the supply chain.
Severely restricted
shopping trips, online
fulfillment is limited,
price concerns rise as
limited stock availability
impacts pricing in some
cases.
People return to daily
routines (work, school,
etc.) but operate with a
renewed cautiousness
about health.
Permanent shifts in
supply chain, the use
of e-commerce and
hygiene practices.
COVID-19 EVENT MARKERS
Minimal localized
cases of COVID-19
generally linked to an
arrival from another
infected country.
First local transmission
with no link to other
location + first COVID-
19 related death/s.
Multiple cases of local
transmission and
multiple deaths linked
to COVID-19.
Localized COVID-19
emergency actions.
Percentage of people
diagnosed continues
to increase.
Mass cases of COVID-
19. Communities
ordered into lockdown.
COVID-19 quarantines
lift beyond
region/country’s most-
affected hotspots and
life starts to return to
normal.
6 KEY CONSUMER BEHAVIOR THRESHOLDS IDENTIFIED
AS THE CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK EVOLVES
This artwork was created using Nielsen data.
Copyright © 2020 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
COVID-19 AROUND THE GLOBEBenchmarks across markets
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GREECE: INITIAL PROGRESSION OF COVID-CONCERN FROM
BEHAVIOR THRESHOLDS 1 – 2Greek Weekly Sales Growth Trend vs. Year-ago
RICE HOUSEHOLD CLEANERS CLEANING WIPES BAR & LIQUID SOAP
Source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Services, Total Greece Supermarkets +Superettes From week ending 'W 05/01/20 to 'W 01/03/20 vs. year-ago
JAN. 7 China reports novel
coronavirus.
#1 – PROACTIVE HEALTH-MINDED BUYING
FEB. 27First incidence of COVID-19
JAN FEB MAR
FEB#2 – REACTIVE HEALTH
MANAGEMENT
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GEOGRAPHICAL AREAS SHOP TYPES
+32,8%
+34,7%
+33,6%
+34,6%+31,7%
+28,7%
% Value change vs YA
TTL GRECE
33,8%
27/2: First case is
confirmed in
Thessaloniki
Source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Services, Total Greece Supermarkets +Superettes week ending W 01/03/20 vs. year-ago
Above 2,500m2 selling surface +55,1%
Hypermarkets
Btw 1,000m2 and 2,500m2 selling surface +37,5%
Large Supermarkets
Btw 400m2 and 1,000m2 selling surface +28,5%
Small Supermarkets
Btw 100m2 and 400m2 selling surface +19,1%
Superettes
Massive sales implication
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TOTAL STORE
READ +33,8%
HOUSEHOLD CARE
+49,2%
HEATH & BEAUTY +41,4%
PACKAGED FOOD & BEVERAGE +32,7%
Source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Services, Total Greece Supermarkets +Superettes week ending W 01/03/20 vs. year-ago
FRESH BULK PRODUCTS +32,6%
BAZAAR PRODUCTS +13,2%
GREEKS STARTED REACTING TO COVID-19:
IMPACT ON TOTAL STORE READ
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DECLINING CATEGORIES
-16%Wines
-8%Brandy
-6%Beers
-5%Whiskey
-1%Diapers
-2%Toys
-2% CosmeticsLip Liners
-1%Clothing
-5%Beauty
Eye Care
-3%Stain Removers
GROWING CATEGORIES
+484%RTE Meals
+187%Pulses
+165%Luncheon Meat
+164%Rice
+344%Cleaning Wipes
+231%Liquid/Bar Soaps
+149%Baby Wipes
+112%Household
Cleaners
+99%Elastic Gloves
+98%Bleaches
FOOD
GROWING & DECLINING CATEGORIES IN GREECE
NON FOOD
Source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Services, Total Greece Supermarkets +Superettes week ending W 01/03/20 vs. year-ago
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JAN FEB MAR
HAND SANITIZER
ITALY: INITIAL PROGRESSION OF COVID-CONCERN
FROM BEHAVIOR THRESHOLDS 1 – 3Italy Weekly Sales Growth Trend vs. Year-ago
Source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Services, Total Italy All Outlets Combined, 1 week periods ended Mar 1, 2020 vs. year-ago
JAN. 31First two cases confirmed in Italy
QUICK TRANSITION FROM
#2 – REACTIVE HEALTH MANAGEMENT TO
#3 – PANTRY PREPARATION
JAN. 7 China reports novel coronavirus
#1 – PROACTIVE HEALTH-MINDED BUYING
HAND SOAP CANNED FOOD VITAMINS MULTI-PURPOSE CLEANERS
FEB. 21 - 23Italy reports 1st death.
Government begins to shut down
public events, schools and towns.
FEB. 2717 deaths reported.
Cases increase by 50% over 24
hours reaching 650.
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EGROCERY: SALES UPLIFT ON WEEK ENDING 23/02
Source: Nielsen eCommerce tracking, vendite online Week 8 2020 vs. Week 8 2019.
+56,8%VS. WEEK 8 2019
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SPAIN: PURCHASE TURN AROUND TO
COVID-19 NEWS CYCLESpain weekly sales growth trend vs. year ago
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POLAND: PRECAUTIONARY PURCHASES
OF POLES IN W9(24.02 – 1.03.2020)
TOTAL TURNOVER
INCREASE
17%
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Source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Services, Total KAI Romania, 1 week periods ended Mar. 1, 2020 vs. year-ago
JAN. 7 China reports novel
coronavirus.
#1 – PROACTIVE HEALTH-
MINDED BUYING
JAN FEB MAR
JAN. 31First two cases confirmed in Italy
FEB. 26First case confirmed in Romania
ROMANIA: EARLY SIGNS OF COVID-CONCERN FROM BEHAVIOR
THRESHOLDS 1 – 2 ARE VIZIBLE AS OF WEEK ENDING 1ST OF
MARCHRomania Weekly Sales Growth Trend vs. Year-ago
FRESH FOOD
GROCERY
BEVERAGES
BEAUTY
HOUSEHOLD
HEALTH
RO KAI
ROBUCHAREST
Bucharest registered higher peaks
during the first week of local outbreak
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NETHERLANDS: AS EXPECTED, HAND SANITIZING GEL SALES BOOM
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SOUTH KOREA: PURCHASE TURN AROUND
TO COVID-19 NEWS CYCLESouth Korea weekly sales growth trend vs. year ago
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Thre
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e infe
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oro
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n 2
5/1
/2020
SAN
ITIZ
ER
59 104211
260
640
957
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Averageweekly sales
- 2018
Averageweekly sales
- 2019
Sales in weekending 5 Jan
2020
Sales in weekending 12Jan 2020
Sales in weekending 19Jan 2020
Sales in weekending 26Jan 2020
Hand Sanitizer Sales
3 confirmed Covid-19
cases in Malaysia
announced on 25 Jan
HAND SANITIZER SCANTRACK | VALUE SALES (RM’000) | PAST 2 YEARS - WEEKLY
MALAYSIA: HAND SANITIZER SALES SOAR
50ml/gm95% of sales were contributed
by a handy pack
RM4 – RM10US$1 to US$2.50
Price per bottle of Hand
Sanitizer @ 50ml/gm
Source: ScanTrack Jan 2020 (Aeon, Aeon Big, Aeon Wellness, Caring, Cold Storage, Giant, Guardian, Mydin, Sunshine, Tesco and Watsons
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AUSTRALIA: ONLINE SALES OF PANDEMIC
PANTRY STOCKING% dollar growth vs YA
Source: Nielsen Homescan | Total Grocery Market | Latest 4 weeks to 22.02.2020 vs YA
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USA: PURCHASE TURN AROUND TO COVID-19 NEWS CYCLE
U.S. weekly sales growth trend vs. year ago
29This artwork was created using Nielsen data.
Copyright © 2020 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
WHAT’S NEXT?
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#4
Quarantined Living Preparation
#5
Restricted Living
#6
Living a New Normal
Online shopping infrastructure will be put to
the test.
Supply chain challenges will drive consumers
to be less price sensitive on high demand
packaged goods or those that guarantee
hygiene standards.
Crisis-buying patterns during the outbreak will
speed adoption of new, permanent behavior
change.
In Italy, consumers grew heavily reliant on online
shopping and fulfillment (while significantly
reducing in-store visits) to meet their health and
household needs. This will challenge areas where
fulfillment infrastructure cannot keep up with
demand.
New health and safety labeling may be critical in
winning over cautious consumers, based on
changes made in China, particularly in home
delivery products. Older generations are turning to
online shopping to meet more of their household
needs.
Getting Ahead of Panicked Purchasing
PREDICTIONS
EARLY INDICATORS
China experienced severely restricted
shopping trips and online fulfillment challenges
at this stage. And, price hikes on in-demand
products will occur in some countries, but not
all. We expect these factors will drive
increased basket sizes in other markets and in
some cases, influence consumer willingness to
spend more on hygiene needs and healthful
food products.
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LESSONS FROM THE PAST: RETAIL’S RECOVERY IN 3 ASIAN CRISES: SARS OUTBREAK IN CHINA, FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR DISASTER & EARTHQUAKE IN JAPAN, MERS OUTBREAK IN SOUTH KOREA
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DEMAND FLUCTUATES AFTER AN EPIDEMIC, BUT TENDS TO FOLLOW ONE OF THREE PATTERNS
Clothes and
Cosmetics are
among the
products subject to
this sudden release
of pent-up demand
Source: Bain and Company - China’s Retailers and the Coronavirus Outbreak: Lessons from the Past
https://www.bain.com/insights/chinas-retailers-and-the-coronavirus-outbreak-lessons-from-the-past/?_lrsc=70f97d41-56f6-42df-b1ca-43202cefbe7d&utm_source=Elevate_LinkedIn&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=LinkedIn
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KEY THEMES ON COVID-19 AND IMPLICATIONS
Demand for Health and
Cleaning products will
likely drop.
Watch out for high
“pantry” loaded stock
levels.
Demand for Pantry
Staples will
normalize.
Watch out for high
“pantry” loaded stock
levels. Ensure
availability
Demand for Non-
essential luxury
goods will recover
along with consumer
confidence.
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KEY THEMES ON COVID-19 AND IMPLICATIONS
More people stay home
Step up online or delivery
programs to shore up possible
lost in-store sales and seize on
pantry loading opportunities
For food categories to ride on the
wave of increased incidence of
home cooking, provide materials
(e.g., new recipes) to build usage
and consumption occasions
Heightened awareness on
health and fear of germs
/contagion
Brand communications on
prevention (ie., hand
sanitizers, alcohol) and
strengthening of body’s
immunity
This artwork was created using Nielsen data.
Copyright © 2020 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
#stayhome#staysafe
