Decoupling freshwater and marine effects on the early marine survival of steelhead

smolts through Puget SoundMegan Moore

Barry Berejikian

Manchester Laboratory, NOAA Fisheries

NWFSC

Previous Puget Sound Telemetry StudiesHood Canal Rivers: 2006-2010Moore, Berejikian, et al. (NWFSC)

Green River: 2006-2009Fred Goetz, Tom Quinn et al (UW, ACOE)

Puyallup River: 2006, 2008-2009Andrew Berger et al. (Puyallup Tribe)

Nisqually River: 2006-2009Sayre Hodgson et al. (Nisqually Tribe)

Skagit River: 2006-2009Ed Conner et al. (Seattle City Light)

Nisqually (W)

Puyallup (W)

Puyallup (H)

Green (W)

Green (H)

Skagit (W)

Skagit (H)

Surv

ival P

roba

bility

(%)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Skokomish (W)

Skokomish (H)

Dewatto (W)

Hamma (H)

Duckabush (H)

Big Beef Creek (W)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Surv

ival P

roba

bility

(%)

A

B

Puget Sound

Hood Canal

• Low marine survival rates

• Hatchery fish generally had lower survival

• Lower survival for longer migration distances

rivermarine

Salish Sea Marine Survival Project

2013 Steelhead Technical Team convened to determine causes of declines in marine survival

What we know:

• Steelhead marine survival through Puget Sound is LOW, likely limiting recovery

What we don’t know:

• Mechanisms of mortality: what is it about the Puget Sound migration that is causing fish to die?

6/10/2016 5

2014 Telemetry efforts began with the following objectives:

• Separate freshwater effects (habitat conditions and hatchery influence) from marine effects on marine survival

• Identify areas of low survival (‘hot spots’)

• Investigate effects of body size, outmigration timing, marine entry point

Treatment vs. control

Green River Watershed Nisqually River Watershed

• Lower watershed 75% industrial/residential • Lower watershed 5% industrial/residential

• Degraded riparian zone (lower river 95% armored)

• Healthy riparian zone

• 2% of historic estuary/mudflats remains • Largest undeveloped delta in Puget Sound

• Steelhead hatchery since 1964 • No steelhead released since 1994

Green River Watershed Nisqually River Watershed

Commercial/residential Federal conservation land State trust forest landUndeveloped State conservation land Agricultural use

The Experiment Smolts collected at Nisqually R. and Green R. smolt traps Surgically implanted with Vemco V7 acoustic transmitters Held overnight in flow-through tanks at trap/tagging location Released at RKM 19 the following morning at either home or away location

GREENPOPULATION

NISQUALLYPOPULATION

Release Week Away Home Away Home Delay TOTAL

1 (4/27-5/3) 12 13 12 12 10 592 (5/4-5/10) 13 12 13 13 10 613 (5/11-5/17) 12 18 13 12 11 664 (5/18-5/24) 13 10 12 13 12 60

Photos by Matt Klungle

Strait of Juan de Fuca

NAR

CPS

ADM

JDF

REL

REL

EST

EST

Survival Analysis mark-recapture (Program MARK)

Nisqually River

Green River

REL estuary NAR CPS ADM JDF

REL estuary JDFADMCPS

ᵩ1 ᵩ2

ᵩ1 ᵩ2 ᵩ3 ᵩ4

ᵩ4

ᵩ5

ᵩ5

FIXED DETECTION PROBABILITY MODEL VARIABLES

JDF = 68.5 % (Melnychuk)(V7/V9 comparison = 66.67%)

Population (genetic or habitat) River (release location) translocation (home or away) fork length release date

parameter relative weightrelease 0.64pop 0.26length 0.23translocation 0.22river 0.22

Survival Analysis - results Lowest AICc = migration segment x release date

PR-RM

RM-CPS/NAR

NAR-CPS

CPS-ADM

ADM-JDF

Green R

RM-JDF

Nisqua

lly R RM-JD

F

Sur

viva

l Pro

babi

lity

(%)

0

20

40

60

80

100Green and NisquallyGreen River onlyNisqually River only

Overall survivalestimates

Segment-specific survival estimates

Where is mortality most acute?

RM

RM

NAR

CPS

ADM

PR-R

M

RM

-NAR

/CPS

NAR

-CPS

CPS

-AD

M

ADM

-JD

F

% m

orta

lity/

km

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

Steelhead smolt travel time

CPS

NAR

ADMJDF

ESTUARY BEHAVIOR

NISQUALLY GREENRelease to RM distance 19 km 19 kmFirst - last estuary receiver distance 4 km 5 kmNumber of Estuary receivers 6 8Detection rate of lower receivers 100% 100%Distance to first marine line 19 km 19 kmDegree of urbanization Low High

Nisqually Estuary

Duwamish Estuary

Nisqually H Green A Nisqually A Green H

Estu

ary

resi

denc

e tim

e (d

ays)

0

10

20

30

40

50 Nisqually River Green River

ESTUARY RESIDENCE TIME

median = 14.2 h median = 14.6 h

Nisqually River Green River

Linearity = max track range distance travelled

Estuary residence time (days)

0 10 20 30 40 50

Line

arity

val

ue

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Not detected after estuaryDetected after estuary

Estuary residence time (days)

0 5 10 15 20 25

Line

arity

val

ue

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Not detected after estuaryDetected after estuary

6/10/2016 16

15813

5/17 5/18 5/19 5/20 5/21 5/22 5/23 5/24 5/25

Tida

l hei

ght (

ft)

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

RKM -1.4RKM 0.2 RKM 1.1 RKM 4.0

6/10/2016 17

Fish ID

1581

3

1590

9

1583

2

1585

9

1584

3

1587

4

1598

6

1598

1

1589

2

1581

4

1577

9

1582

9

Tida

l hei

ght (

ft)

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

nearshorerkm 0-3rkm 4-5rkm 10+

Nisqually River Green River

Nisqually

Green

6/10/2016 18

Orca network sightings - 2015

January 2015December 2014

(Relevant) ORCA FACTS

• Resident Orcas eat salmon

• Transient Orcas eat marine mammals

• Transient orcas rarely come into Puget Sound

• 2015 anomalous behavior brought them into the sound for 3 months in the winter and 3 months in the spring

6/10/2016 1919

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Stee

lhea

d ea

rly m

arin

e su

rviv

al (%

)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Num

ber o

f day

s w

ith tr

ansi

ent O

rca

sigh

tings

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

no survival estimates

year (July-June)

Jul-2

014

Aug-

2014

Sep-

2014

Oct

-201

4

Nov

-201

4

Dec

-201

4

Jan-

2015

Feb-

2015

Mar

-201

5

Apr-2

015

May

-201

5

Jun-

2015

Day

s w

ith O

rca

sigh

tings

in S

outh

Pug

et S

ound

0

5

10

15

20

25

Conclusions

Puget Sound (RM-JDF) survival probabilities are low (Green – 17%, Nisqually – 6%) –similar to previously calculated Puget Sound estimates

Release date was the only important model variable; distance was the most important factor affecting early marine survival

Smolts from both rivers took a similar amount of time from release to the JDF Strait (< 2 weeks)

Highest mortality rates occurred in the first marine segment for both populations

Measures of behavior in the estuary may help identify some causes of mortality

Patterns in survival over multiple years can help us understand predator-prey interactions and the impact of anomalies

AcknowledgementsSteelhead Advisory Group to the SSMSP

LLTK: Michael Schmidt, Iris Kemp

WDFW: Joe Anderson, Pete Topping, Matt Klungle, Chris Frazier

Green River Trap Crew (Bob Green & Matt Pollack)

Nisqually Trap Crew (Devin West, Justin Miller, & Lars Swartling)

Nisqually Tribe: Chris Ellings, Sayre Hodgson, Jed Moore, Walker Duvall

Muckleshoot Tribe: Ava Fuller, Eric Warner, Sean Hildebrandt

Squaxin Tribe: Scott Steltzner

NWFSC: Anna Kagley, Heather Jackson, Rob Endicott, Jose Reyes- Tomassini, Jeff Atkins

Port of Seattle: George Blomberg, Mick Schultz

UW: Tom Quinn, Fred Goetz

FUNDING: WDFW and NOAA NWFSC

Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Upper --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> DistribLower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower

15909

5/9 5/10 5/11 5/12 5/13 5/14 5/15 5/16 5/17

Tida

l hei

ght (

ft)

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

RKM -1.4RKM 0.2RKM 1.1RKM 4.0

Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> DistribLower --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower -->Nisqually --> Animal Lower

15832

5/4 5/6 5/8 5/10 5/12 5/14 5/16

Tida

l hei

ght (

ft)

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

RKM -1.4 RKM 0.2RKM 1.1 RKM 4.0

I5 Upper --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> I5 Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> I5 Lower --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Upper --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Anderson --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Anderson

15859

5/6 5/10 5/14 5/18 5/22 5/26 5/30

Tida

l hei

ght (

ft)

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

RKM -2.0RKM -1.4 RKM 0.2RKM 1.1RKM 4.0

5 Upper --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> DistribLower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> I5 Lower --> DistribLower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> Animal Lower

15813

5/17 5/18 5/19 5/20 5/21 5/22 5/23 5/24 5/25

Tida

l hei

ght (

ft)

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

RKM -1.4RKM 0.2 RKM 1.1 RKM 4.0

Length (mm) Weight (g) age (% age‐1) age (% age‐2)

Green Home 182.0 ± 2.0 56.3 ± 2.0 49% 51%

Green Away 178.8 ± 1.8 52.6 ± 1.7 40% 53%

Nisqually Home 207.2 ± 2.8 84.8 ± 3.8 18% 72%

Nisqually Away 207.7 ± 3.6 86.9 ± 4.7 18% 77%

Size and age at tagging

Migration timing (by segment)

REL-RM RM-NAR NAR-CPS CPS-ADM ADM-JDF

Trav

el ti

me

(day

s)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Nisqually H Green A

REL-RM RM-CPS CPS-ADM ADM-JDF

Nisqually A Green H

Nisqually River Green River

Nisqually River

REL-RM RM-NAR NAR-CPS CPS-ADM ADM-JDF

trave

l rat

e (k

m/d

)

0

10

20

30

40Green A Nisqually H

Green River

REL-RM RM-CPS CPS-ADM ADM-JDF0

10

20

30

40Green HNisqually A

H and W

Release Date

Apr 14 Apr 28 May 12 May 26 Jun 09 Jun 23

Num

ber o

f sm

olts

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0

2x105

4x105

6x105

8x105

106

1x106

1x106

Not detected at JDFDetected at JDF70-75% of hatchery released sthd