Decision to Pick - Presentation from the 10th Australian Mango Conference
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Transcript of Decision to Pick - Presentation from the 10th Australian Mango Conference
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Why?
and we grow a highly variable crop
Because customers need aconsistently good
eating experience …
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Overview• Background• Decision to Pick Process• Decision Support Tools• Wrap up
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
People, Process, Tools
People (Enablement)
Process (Methodology)
Tools (Insight)
• Decision Support Toolsprovide insight into crop maturity status and can predict DTP dates
• Standard operating procedures are usedto collect the data
• People operate theprocesses and the tools
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Variability• Main sources of variability in fruit maturity derive from:
• the location of the fruit within each tree• Ferguson & Triggs (1990) “… there was much greater variability
within a tree than between trees”• Ferguson, I.B. & Triggs, C.M. (1990) Sampling factors affecting
the use of mineral analysis of apple fruit for the prediction of bitter pit. New Zealand Journal of Crop and Horticultural Science. Vol. 18: 147-152.
• Reitz & Sites, 1948• Reitz, H.J. & Sites J.W. (1948) Relation between position on
tree and analysis of citrus fruit with special reference to sampling and meeting internal grades. Proc ser. Soc. hort. Sci. 1950 Vol. 55 pp. 73-1
• variability between trees from differences in tree age, architecture, soil, water, agronomy, light interception, etc.
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Decision Support Systems• Fruit quality Decision Support Systems we have developed
that are in consistent commercial use:• Zespri
• Gold kiwifruit• Harvest date prediction (flesh colour) since 2007, Firmness prediction since
2008, Harvest window from 2010, Bimodality from 2014• Green Kiwifruit
• Inventory management in 2011 & 2012, Transport temperature from 2014
• Harvest Fresh Fruits• Mango
• Decision to Pick since 2011
• Delytics Platform• Summerfruit, apples & cherries
• Crop status since 2013
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Decision to Pick Process• Define areas of consistent maturity (block?)
• Plus maturity zones?
• Develop a sample collection protocol • Aim is to take a representative sample from each block• In order to quantify variability in maturity within each block• We have experience in this area
• Determine the sample size • Number of fruit (more is better)
• Determine the sampling frequency• Weekly as you approach maturity and beyond
• Fruit property measurements and methods• Non-destructive (NIR gun)?
• Decision Support Tools
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Harvest specifications• Each measurement will have its own specification
• Dry Matter, Flesh Colour, Skin Colour, Firmness, Shape, etc.
• Determine what percentage of fruit must meet the specification?
• Your specifications may be higher than the industry minimum standard
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
What to measure? Options include
• Visual appeal• Skin colour• Flesh colour• Defects• Firmness• Fruit weight and / or size
• Taste• Dry matter• Brix?• Acid?
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Typical NIR OutputLot sample sampleTime lat long dm fc
1 1 01:00.0 0 0 10.12374 2.1846281 2 01:00.0 0 0 10.95018 1.7993261 3 01:00.0 0 0 13.22173 3.3659411 4 02:00.0 0 0 12.48054 3.7552021 5 02:00.0 0 0 10.4524 1.5219141 6 03:00.0 0 0 10.88187 2.7172121 7 03:00.0 0 0 11.02853 2.0240261 8 03:00.0 0 0 11.0932 1.9674471 9 03:00.0 0 0 14.52913 4.5072171 10 03:00.0 0 0 11.73714 2.3942871 11 07:00.0 0 0 13.44219 4.1722251 12 07:00.0 0 0 13.23002 4.1803321 13 07:00.0 0 0 14.49739 4.118111 14 08:00.0 0 0 13.43534 3.908661 15 08:00.0 0 0 13.49014 3.5818631 16 08:00.0 0 0 13.27886 2.3413681 17 09:00.0 0 0 12.37506 2.0636971 18 09:00.0 0 0 13.97579 3.505971 19 09:00.0 0 0 12.29559 3.3021851 20 09:00.0 0 0 12.65907 1.9418
• Lists all data collected
• Can be loaded into a spreadsheet
• Decision support tools provide greater insight
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Decision Support ToolsAfter you have taken your measurements, what can you do with the data?Some examples …
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Decision Support Features
Crop Status• What is the crop
maturity status in relation to our harvest criteria?
• How is the crop in each block progressing?
• How do our farms compare?
Crop Prediction• When could we be
ready to harvest each block?
• What order will we harvest our farms / blocks?
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Dry Matter statusImmediately visualise the percentage of crop meeting specification - for select picks
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Dry Matter seriesVisualise the percentage of crop meeting specification over time – DM rising
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
DM time series + modelA DM model fitted to 23 Sep sample to predict harvest date - when the Yellow curve meets Red
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Flesh Colour time series + model
A flesh colour model to predict harvest date - when the Yellow curve meets Red
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Acceptance CurvesShows the percentage of fruit in each sample meeting the DM and FC specifications over time
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
GPS location of fruit sampledFrom the NIR gun – a useful check on your sampling process
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Biphase weight data + model
Very useful to understand the range of fruit sizes before harvest
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Avg. DM Models for all farmsThe maturity status of each Farm Block - for determining harvest sequence?
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
DM Variability by FarmCrop variability is important – samples from four farms showing some with high variability
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Summary – Decision to Pick• Define:
• Maturity areas (zones)• Sampling procedure, Sample Size & Sampling frequency• Measurements & measurement methods
• E.g. Dry Matter (NIR?)• Harvest Specifications
• Implement maturity monitoring programme• Use Decision Support Tools to gain insight into your
maturity data and aid decision making
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
HFF benefits• Using decision support tools since
2011• Kieren Brown, Chief Operating Officer
of HFF:• It’s extremely useful to the point where
the orchard managers probably couldn’t imagine doing the pre-harvest pick plans without it
• The estimated gains in the first season using the tools were approximately 2% of crop value, and the benefits are ongoing
• The return on investment was very quick
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Acknowledgements• Kieren Brown, Harvest Fresh Fruits• Horticulture Australia Ltd (Horticulture Innovation
Australia)