Decision-support Research for Environmental Applications...
Transcript of Decision-support Research for Environmental Applications...
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Decision-support Research for Environmental Applications and Models: « Toward practical monitoring of climate change impacts in the Mekong region »
A/Prof. Hiep Xuan Huynh, Ph.D.
LabSTICC University of Occidental Brest
June 03, 2013
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Content
Problem of climate change in the Mekong Delta
region
Problem of sea level rise
Problem of social eonomic indices
Problem of BPH (Brown Plant Hopper) propagation
Research participation
Current and prepared research projects
Support of mathematics and computer science?
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Climate change in the Mekong Delta region - Vietnam
[http://www.agroviet.gov.vn/Pages/news_detail.aspx?NewsId=987
8#]
Mekong Delta region is the coastal lowlands of Vietnam will be the
region most severely affected by climate change (CC) cause.
In the dry season, many provinces in the Mekong Delta are
affected by salinity intrusion, agricultural production is damaged,
many areas have a lack of fresh water for household ...
Before this situation, many localities in the Mekong Delta region
has been proposed many solutions to cope and adapt to climate
change impacts due
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Biến đổi khí hậu tại vùng ĐBSCL
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Climate change on the Mekong delta region - Vietnam
Rapidly increasing impact
[Report of the World Bank (WB)] Vietnam is one of the countries
most affected when global sea level rise due to climate change
impacts. Over 12% of Vietnam's coast will be submerged under 1
meter sea level. Mekong Delta and Red River Delta are the regions
lying to the most affected when flooding occurs, salinization and
severe weather phenomena. As the prediction of the United
Nations Development Program (UNDP), the impact will cause
damage of about 17 billion each year and that about 17 million
people homeless. But the Office of Management survey of marine
resources and the environment (Ministry of Natural Resources and
Environment) forecasts that sea levels will rise in Vietnam from 3-
15 cm in 2010, coming from 15-90 cm in in 2070. The affected
area is Ca Mau, Kien Giang, Ba Ria-Vung Tau, Thanh Hoa, Nam
Dinh, Thai Binh.
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Climate change on the Mekong Delta region - Vietnam
[Not many storms at the Mekong Delta region before] But with
the Linda 1997 storm went through the area and in 2006, tailed
Durion storm swept through, causing heavy losses of life and
property. Severity of storms such as hurricanes in the Delta Durion
will cause even greater and more intense if sea levels rise higher
than currently.
[A/Prof. Nguyen Huu Chiem (College of Environment and
Natural Resources-CTU)] “Mekong Delta region is influenced by
global climate change. Land discolored, biodiversity decline. The
area of land salinization, soil drought, increasing acidity. Currently,
there are about 2.1 million hectares and 1.6 million hectares of
saline soil acidity, drought. The air temperature increased and
abnormal drought, floods irregular, forming many new diseases ...
".
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Climate change in the Mekong Delta region - Vietnam
[According to the meteorological branch of the Mekong Delta
provinces] In the tidal wave from late 2008 to early 2009 has
made the area outside the dikes for 8 provinces floodplains
including: An Giang, Kien Giang, Hau Giang, Dong Thap , Long
An, Tien Giang, Vinh Long, Can Tho flooded. In addition, high tide
as the river rises to about 70,000 ha have orchards, hundreds of
kilometers of rural roads flooded depth of 10-30 cm. National road
53 is located in the town of Long Ho district was flooded on the 200
meters in length, 15 cm deep. Hundreds of people could not also
flooded embankment. Earlier, the combined effect of storm rainfall
time between 12/2008 to 100,000 ha located outside the dike in the
MDR flooded from 10-40 cm, mainly orchards. Inundation occurs
even in the dry season hinders the production and living of the
people living outside the dikes.
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Climate change in the Mekong Delta region - Vietnam
[Dry season] According to the Water Resources Research
Institute of the South said that from 6 saltwater estuaries of the
Mekong River system into the Mekong Delta 70 km inland. In Long
An, salty water from the river into the society of the state was West
Marine (Thanh Hoa district) in Ben Tre, salty water from the river to
Cua Dai Phu Tuc has (Chau Thanh district) in Tra Vinh, saltwater
Ham Luong river in the Long Thoi commune (district State needed)
in Hau Giang, salty water from the river has to Tran Huu Phu, Vinh
Long, An Dinh salt water from the river, had to come Cung Hau
commune An Quoi (Vung Liem district) and Tra district town. In Ca
Mau province, salty water from the river he had penetrated 65km
Doc. Cai Lon rivers from saltwater intrusion and 65 km to the town
of Vi Thanh (Hau Giang).
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Climate change in the Mekong Delta region - Vietnam
Salt water from the Mekong River and 6 doors Cổ Chiên (of the
Mekong River system), from the estuary Ông Đốc, Cái Lớn has
deep intrusion from 10-60 km to 53 local communes in the
provinces of Long An, Tien Giang , Ben Tre, Tra Vinh, Soc Trang,
Bac Lieu, Kien Giang, Ca Mau, Vinh Long, Hau Giang.
Currently a number of localities in the Mekong Delta has emerged
the severe water shortage.
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Climate change in the Mekong Delta region - Vietnam
[Pham Dinh Don, Director of the Environmental Protection
Department of the South West region] In the next few decades if
sea levels rise, Mekong Delta will have to face the situation salinity
and flooding conditions downstream Mekong Delta large scale.
Delta is the nation's largest rice bowl and the strength of the
aquaculture sector should 2 will be most affected when the salinity
change on soil and water resources. Mangrove ecosystem would
also adversely affected by the deep water regime altered by rising
sea levels. Salinization process at a high level can destroy
vegetation and biodiversity of mangrove forest ecosystems in Ca
Mau, Kien Giang ... ? Under such circumstances, if the sea level
rises, national food security will be threatened and the lives of poor
farmers in the region will be seriously affected.
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Administration of climate change in the Mekong Delta region
Climate change office of Can Tho city (Steering committee 158)
http://biendoikhihau.cantho.gov.vn/
Institute for Climate Change, Cantho University
http://www.ctu.edu.vn/institutes/dragon/
Multidisciplinary research team DREAM (Decision-support
Research for Environmental Applications and Models)
http://www.ctu.edu.vn/dream/
College of Information and Communication Technology, College of Natural
Sciences (Mathematics Department), College of Environment and Natural
Resources
http://biendoikhihau.cantho.gov.vn/http://www.ctu.edu.vn/institutes/dragon/http://www.ctu.edu.vn/dream/
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Sea level rise
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Flooding by tide (in Can Tho city)
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Peace Avenue Road (Can Tho city) inundated by rising
tides pm 15-10 - Photo: Thanh Xuan.
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Flooding by tide (in Ho Chi Minh city)
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Land-used planning
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BPH on rice plant
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BPH’s fired
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Affected of salinity intrusion in rice plant in the Soc Trang province (spring-summer)
http://www.sggp.org.vn/moitruongdothi/2013/4/315673/
http://www.sggp.org.vn/moitruongdothi/2013/4/315673/
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Haì TiãnHaì Tiãn
Kiãn LæångKiãn Læång
Hoìn ÂáútHoìn Âáút
ÂAÍO PHUÏ Q UÄ ÚCÂAÍO PHUÏ Q UÄ ÚC
Tri ToânTri Toân
G oì Q uaoG oì Q uao
Tán HiãûpTán Hiãûp
Minh LæångMinh Læång
Thæï BaThæï Ba
KIEÂNG GIANG
Nhaì BaìngNhaì Baìng
AN GIANG
Tr áön Vàn ThåìiTr áön Vàn Thåìi
Âáöm DåiÂáöm Dåi
C aïi næåïcC aïi næåïc
Nàm C ànNàm C àn
U MinhU Minh
Thåïi BçnhThåïi Bçnh
Thæï Mæåìi MäütThæï Mæåìi Mäüt
Vénh ThuáûnVénh Thuáûn
CAØ MAU
H oàng NgöïH oàng Ngöï
An PhuïAn Phuï
Tán C háuTán C háu
C håü VaìmC håü Vaìm
C aïi DáöuC aïi Dáöu
An C háuAn C háu
Nuïi SáûpNuïi Sáûp
C háu ÂäúcC háu Âäúc
Q . B çn h T h u y íQ . B çn h T h u y í
C aïi VäönC aïi Väön
Thäút NäútThäút Näút
Q . Ä MänQ . Ä Män
C åì ÂoíC åì ÂoíQ . N in h K iã öu
Q . N in h K iã öu
CAÀN THÔ
Vó nh ThaïnhVó nh Thaïnh
Thaïnh TròThaïnh TròPhæåïc LongPhæåïc Long
G iaï RaiG iaï Rai
Hoìa BçnhHoìa Bçnh
Long MyîLong Myî
BAÏC LIEÂU
Ngaõ NaêmNgaõ Naêm
Q . C a ïi R à n gQ . C a ïi R à n g
Phuûng HiãûpPhuûng HiãûpVë ThanhVë Thanh
P h o n g  iã önP h o n g  iã ön
C háu Thaình AC háu Thaình A
HAÄU
GIANG
G i oàng Ri eàngG i oàng Ri eàng
Tr aìm C himTr aìm C him
Thanh BçnhThanh Bçnh
Taân H oàngTaân H oàng
Taân H öngTaân H öng
Cao LaûnhCao Laûnh
C håü MåïiC håü Måïi
Lai VungLai Vung
Láúp VoìLáúp Voì
Thaùp MöôøiThaùp Möôøi
Traø OÂnTraø OÂn
Kãú SaïchKãú Saïch
C aïi Taìu HaûC aïi Taìu Haû
Long HäöLong Häö
C háu ThaìnhC háu Thaình
Tam Bì nhTam Bì nh
Vénh HængVénh Hæng
C háu ThaìnhC háu Thaình
Huyình Hæîu NghéaHuyình Hæîu Nghéa
Myî XuyãnMyî Xuyãn
Vénh C háuVénh C háu
SOÙC TRAÊNG
Long PhuùLong Phuù
C aïi NhumC aïi Nhum
C áöu keìC áöu keì
VÓNH LONG
Vuõng Li eâmVuõng Li eâm
Tán ThaûnhTán Thaûnh
C ai LáûyC ai Láûy
C aïi BeìC aïi Beì
Mäüc HoaïMäüc Hoaï
LONG ANThaïnh H oùa
Thaïnh H oùaThuû Thöøa
Thuû Thöøa
Ñ öùc H oøaÑ öùc H oøa
Tr aíng BaìngTr aíng Baìng
Dæång Minh C háuDæång Minh C háu
Hoaì ThaìnhHoaì Thaình
G oì DáöuG oì Dáöu
häö Dáöu Tiãúnghäö Dáöu Tiãúng
Taây Ninh
Beán CaàuBeán Caàu
Myî PhæåïcMyî Phæåïc
Tán HiãûpTán Hiãûp
C håü G aûoC håü G aûo
C háu ThaìnhC háu Thaình
C håü LaïchC håü Laïch
TIEÀN GIANGChaâu Thaønh
Chaâu Thaønh
C áöu NgangC áöu Ngang
Moí C aìyMoí C aìy
C aìng LongC aìng Long
C háu ThaìnhC háu Thaình
Tiãøu C áönTiãøu C áön
Tr aì C uïTr aì C uï
Duyãn HaíiDuyãn Haíi
TRAØ VINH
G iäöng Tr ämG iäöng Tr äm
Bçnh ÂaûiBçnh Âaûi
Ba Tr iBa Tr i
Thaûnh PhuïThaûnh Phuï
BEÁN TRE
Myî Phæåïc Myî Phæåïc
Bãún læïcBãún læïc
Âæïc HoìaÂæïc Hoìa
C uí C hiC uí C hi
Hoïc MänHoïc Män
An LaûcAn Laûc
C áön G iåìC áön G iåì
Vénh BçnhVénh Bçnh
Tán HoaìTán Hoaì
G oì C ängG oì C äng
C áön G iuäücC áön G iuäüc
C áön ÂæåïcC áön ÂæåïcTraân Truï
Traân Truï
Läüc NinhLäüc Ninh
Âaû TeíhÂaû Teíh
Âäöng NaiÂäöng Nai
Thaïc MåThaïc MåÂæïc PhongÂæïc Phong
An LäücAn Läüc
Tán BiãnTán BiãnTán C háuTán C háu
Bình Phöôùc
laïi Thiãulaïi Thiãu
Nhaì BeìNhaì Beì
Thuí ÂæïcThuí Âæïc
Nhån Tr aûchNhån Tr aûch
Uyãn HængUyãn Hæng
Tp. HCM
Bình Döông
Vó nh CöûuVó nh Cöûu
Âënh Q uaïnÂënh Q uaïn
Tr aíng BomTr aíng Bom
Xuán LäücXuán Läüc
H ä ö H ä ö
T r ë A nT r ë A n
Ñoàng Nai
Long ThaìnhLong Thaình
Long ÂiãönLong Âiãön
NG aîi G iaoNG aîi G iao
Phuï MyîPhuï Myî
Baì RëaBaì Rëa
Phæåïc BæíuPhæåïc Bæíu
Haìm TánHaìm Tán
Baø Ròa-Vuõng Taøu
Taân PhuùTaân Phuù
G ia RayG ia Ray
Âæïc LinhÂæïc Linh
Taïnh LinhTaïnh Linh
Ma Âa G uiMa Âa G ui
Läüc ThàõngLäüc Thàõng
Laûc DæångLaûc Dæång
Nam BanNam Ban
Liãn NghéaLiãn Nghéa
Di linhDi linhBaío LäücBaío Läüc
Laâm Ñoàng
C håü LáöuC håü Láöu
H aøm Thuaän BaécH aøm Thuaän Baéc
Haìm Thuáûn namHaìm Thuáûn nam
Liãn HæångLiãn Hæång
Bình Thuaän
khaïnh Haíikhaïnh Haíi
Thaûnh MyîThaûnh Myî
Ninh SånNinh Sån
Phæåïc DánPhæåïc Dán
Ninh Thuaän
ÑOÀNG THAÙP
Predicting PBH’s infected
Không nhiễm Dt nhiễm ít
Dt nhiễm TB DT nhiễm nhiều
Predicting model for all of 22 provinces/cities in the South
of Vietnam
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Predicting model for PBH’s infected on rice
Mật số rầy biến động
Xịt
thuốc
sâu
Bón
phân Thiên
địch
Gieo
sạ
giống
Mức gây hại và Di trú của rầy
GĐST
lúa
Độ
tuổi
rầy
MỨC ĐỘ NHIỄM RẦY Mật số rầy
ngoài đồng
Hướn
g gió
Nhiễm vùng lân cận
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Predicting model for PBH’s infected on rice (in detail)
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Simulating of BPH’s propagation
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Simulating of salinity intrsion (Bac Lieu province)
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Models for the problem of sea level rise
The sub problems are studied:
Simulating the affect of salinization in a province of Mekong Delta
region (Hoang Ngoc Hien)
Simulating the affect of water levels by tides in Cantho City,
Vietnam (Nguyen Van Trong)
Simulating the flooding progression by the influence of rainfall in
Can Tho city (Ngo Tuong Dan)
Simulating the affect of water levels by the influence of flooding?
Simulating the affect of water levels by the influence of
temperature?
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Sea level rise (in Can Tho city)
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Problem of social-economics indices
Establishing an administrative information system for leaderships
of province and district in a province of Vietnam (Huynh Xuan
Hiep)
Establishing an information technology model for industrial and
agriculture development in rural areas (Huynh Xuan Hiep)
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Problem of PBH propagation
Modeling and simulating based on multiagents apparoach to study
the propagation of BPH on rice (Vo Tran Son Trang)
Simulating the invasion of BPH on rice (Phan Huy Cuong)
Predicting the infected and fired of Brown Plant Hopper (Vu Duy
Linh)
Establishing a model to simulating the BPH’s distribution on rice
field (Vo Thanh Tung)
Identifying the affects of BPH on rice field (Nguyen Trong Thuan)
Estimating the BPH’s density in light traps with spatial approach
(Huynh Khai Vinh)
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BPH propagation and models (Ph.D. students)
A dynamically multiscale approach to modeling of environmental
issues (Vinh Gia Nhi Nguyen)
Optimization by simulation of environmental surveillance network –
Application to the monitoring of Brown Plant Hopper invasion in
Mekong Delta, Vietnam (Viet Xuan Truong)
CO-MODELS, engineering dynamic compositions of coupled
models to support the simulation of complex systems (Nghi Quang
Huynh)
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Student participating?
Engineer and bachelor level
Some concrete problems?
Master level
Some concrete problems?
Overview knowledge about the research problems?
Ph.D. level
Some concrete problems?
Overview knowledge about the research problems?
Research results are new and applicable?
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Current research projects
JEAI-DREAM (Decision-support Research for Environmental
Applications and Models)
PEERS-ACCCLIMATE (Adaptation to Climate Change : Land-use
Innovative Models Applied To Environmental management –
ACCLIMATE)
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Prepared research projects
DREAMS (Designing Resilient urban Environments through
Advanced Modeling and Simulation)
SAUTEREL (Surveillance par cApteUrs auTonomes des insEctes
Ravageurs et nuisibLes)
USTH (Crowd-Based Monitoring: Using Images and Voice
Recognition to Build Flexible and Dynamic Surveillance Networks
of Insects Invasions)
MOET (Optimizing the Brown Plant Hopper surveillance network
using automatic light traps in the Mekong Delta region)
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Informatics and mathematics
Multi agents modeling and simulation
Data mining
Machine learning, SVM - support vector machine
Image, video and voice processing
Geographic information systems
Global optimization
Aggregation operators
Sensor networks?
…
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Light trap
http://www.bvtvhcm.gov.vn/technology.php?id=66
http://www.bvtvhcm.gov.vn/technology.php?id=66http://www.bvtvhcm.gov.vn/technology.php?id=66http://www.bvtvhcm.gov.vn/technology.php?id=66
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Mekong Delta map
http://websrv.ctu.edu.vn/guide_det.php?id=14
http://websrv.ctu.edu.vn/guide_det.php?id=14
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Thank you for your attention!