BANGLADESH DELTA PLAN 2100

A challenge in meeting the uncertainties

of long-term planning

Giasuddin ChoudhuryOxford, 15 November, 2017

Decision-making under Deep Uncertainty Conference 2017

• The Honorable Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina initiated the

formulation of BDP2100

• Hosted by General Economic Division of Planning Commission,

GOB

• Funded by the Government of the Kingdom of The Netherlands

• World Bank providing technical assistance for preparation of

BDP 2100 Investment Plan

• Started on 12 March 2014 to be completed in December 2017

Background

Bangladesh Delta: Downstream of Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Rivers

Land Classification

• Area of Bangladesh:147,570 km²

• Hills : 12%

• Terraces : 8%

• Floodplains : 80%

Elevation in meter

Bangladesh Delta includes the entire country

Digital Elevation Model of Bangladesh

Bangladesh faces the challenge of balancing its available resources and plan against growing uncertainties:

• Integration of existing sectoral plans

•Urbanization & population growth

• Industrialization

•Upstream developments

• Land subsidence & environmental degradation

• Climate change (sea-level rise, flooding, droughts….)

• Adequate and/or innovative financing

A ‘new’ type of planning is needed for the Delta Plan that can deal with these uncertainties

Background: Need for a Delta Plan

2010 2100

1 2 3 4 5 6

Instead of:

Work with long term vision (e.g. 100 years), next back casting to present and subsequently work with regular plans

2010 21001

2

3

Background: Way of working with Long Term Vision

• A long-term (50 to 100 years), holistic, techno-economic, water centric, strategic plan for land and water management in support of a sustainable living environment for Bangladesh delta

• Adaptive delta management (ADM) approach followed to make robust and flexible decisions under uncertain changing conditions

• BDP ADM focusses: “How to enable socio-economic development under uncertain changing conditions especially regarding climate change and (trans-boundary) water availability?”

Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100

Framework for the Preparation of the Bangladesh Delta Plan

Water Management

Standalone

IWRM

Inter Sectoral

Integrated Delta Management

Inter-relations between Projects

Adaptive Delta Management

Scenarios reflecting exogenous factors

Decision making process (including cost benefit analysis) becomes increasingly complex

Paradigm Shift: BDP Adaptive Delta Management

Stages of BDP Strategy Formulation Process

➢National socio-economic policy goalsGoal 1: Eliminate Extreme Poverty by 2030Goal 2: Achieve Upper Middle Income Country (UMIC) status by 2030Goal 3: Being a Prosperous Country beyond 2041

Adaptive Delta Management: Vison and Goals

➢ BDP VisionEnsure long-term water and food security, economic growth and environmental sustainability while effectively coping with natural disasters, climate change and other delta issues through robust, adaptive and integrated strategies, and equitable water governance

➢Goals

Goal 1: Ensure safety from floods and climate change related disasters

Goal 2: Ensure water security and efficiency of water usages

Goal 3: Ensure sustainable and integrated river systems and estuaries . management

Goal 4: Conserve and preserve wetlands and ecosystems and promote . . their wise use

Goal 5: Develop effective institutions and equitable governance for in .. country and trans-boundary water resources management

Goal 6: Achieve optimal use of land and water resources

Adaptive Delta Management: Vison and Goals

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1. Identify major driving forces

2. Plot drivers based on impact and uncertainty (impact-uncertainty matrix)

3. Place two most important drivers along XY-axis

4. Develop plots/storylines with additional drivers -pressures–states (qualitative and quantitative)

5. Define impacts per scenario–opportunities/ vulnerabilities

6. Test performance of proposed strategies in the different scenarios

Approach towards BDP scenarios

Scenario Planning Process

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Approach towards BDP scenarios

Political, economical, social, legal,

technological, environmental

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Scenarios

Moderate

Resilient

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201416

Moderate Reactive

Flood Risk Management Strategy

Freshwater Strategy

Balancing supply and demand for sustainable inclusive growth

2030 2050 2100Short term – no-regret Medium term Long term

River/ beel/ aquifer restoration

River basin management plans for IWRM

Water budgets at basin and catchment level Surface and groundwater resource

protection

Additional surface irrigation (Ganges barrage, local irrigation development)

Deep groundwater development

Less water demanding crops

Irrigation water saving technologies

Precision irrigated agriculture

Low impact, high intensity agriculture

Wastewater reuse

Joint water resource development and protection GB basin

Domestic and industry water saving

Circular water management application in industry and domestic water use

Brahmaputra/ other barrages

Supply management

Demand management

Resource planning & protection

2016

Surface water supply to Dhaka

Adaptation Pathway for Fresh Water Strategy

Maintaining water quality for health, livelihoods and ecosystems

2030 2050 2100Short term – no-regret Medium term Long term

River basin and Environmental management plans

Protection and further designation of ECAs

Offtake stabilization Jamuna

Monitoring, permitting & control

ETP coverage divisional capitals and economic zones

Joint water quality management GB basin

Expansion of clean industrial production technologies

Circular water management application in industry and domestic water use

Flow augmentation North CentralEnhancing

freshwater flows

Pollution control and treatment

Resource planning & protection

Reduce emissions from urban and rural areasUrban wastewater master plans

Low impact agri- and aquaculture

River management and smart dredging

2016

Adaptation Pathway for Fresh Water Strategy

Delta Governance

• Adopt Delta Act

• Establish Delta Fund

• Establish Delta Commission

• Strengthen core Delta

institutions

• Strengthen cross boundary

water dialogue

• Institute beneficiary pays

principle

• Strengthen private sector

• Establish M&E system for

the Delta Plan

• Establish the knowledge

portal and data bank

• Investment portfolio : 80 nos (Physical: 65, Institutional: 15)

• Investment cost up to 2030 : $ 38 billion (World Bank IP)

• Fund allocation (7th FYP) : 2.5% of GDP per annum

• Establishment of Delta Fund‒ Public sector contribution : 2.0 % of GDP (80%)

‒ Private sector contribution : 0.5 % of GDP (20%)

• Funding strategy:‒ Tax with non-tax revenue ‒ Cost recovery for public services

o Beneficiary Pay Principleo O&M funding

‒ Green Climate Fund (GCF) ‒ Donor funding

• Public Private Partnership

Funding Arrangements and Financial Mechanism

Conclusion

• Bangladesh Delta Plan is first of its kind in the world prepared for an entire delta using Adaptive Delta Management principle (WB)

• Long-term plan formulated for managing water resources focusing on socio-economic development under uncertain changing conditions considering climate change and decreasing trans-boundary flows

• BDP2100 has taken care of the paradigm shift from sectoral to integrated planning considering exogenous factors

• Four distinctive Scenarios have been developed with the aim to offer four different, plausible stories of possible future directions important for future water management

• In the current phase of the BDP2100, the proposed measures and strategies assessed against different future outcomes

End