Decision Making

Brigham YoungUniversity

January 30, 2008

Workforce Skills in Demand at BYU

In 2001, BYU managers said the number one skill their people needed to develop was:

Problem Solving

There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all.- Peter Drucker

Do less with less.

Why don’t we always make the best decisions?

Three Blunders:• Premature commitments• Wrongheaded investments• Failure prone practices

– Dr. Paul Nutt, Why Decisions Fail

Blunder 1 – Premature Commitments

Pain Gain

There is perhaps no psychological skill more fundamental than resisting impulse.

- Daniel Goleman, Emotional Intelligence

Blunder 2 – Wrongheaded Investments

Every problem has an easy, cheap, obvious, and wrong solution.

- Donald Rumsfeld

Blunder 3 – Failure Prone Practices

Idea vs. Discovery

Decision-Making Process

1. Evaluate the Problem2. Identify the Objective3. Plan the Decision4. Generate Alternatives5. Screen Alternatives6. Decide

1. Evaluate the Problem

Please give me an example. These are the five most important words used in the [business person’s] arsenal, and they can’t be used enough.

-Tom Peters

While hard data may inform our intellect, it is largely soft data that generates wisdom…Hard information is often limited in scope, lacking richness, and often fails to encompass important non economic and non quantitative factors.

– Henry Mintzberg, The Rise and Fall of Strategic Thinking

2. Identify the Objective

The reason most people never reach their goals is that they don’t define them… Winners can tell you where they are going, what they plan to do along the way, and who will be sharing the adventure with them. – Denis Waitley

SMART Objectives…

• Specific• Measurable• Achievable• Reach• Time-bound

3. Plan the Decision

IYou WeOnly 7 percent of decisions are made after considering long-term priorities or conferring with colleagues. – Dr. Paul Nutt

4. Generate Alternatives

Success rates of students successfully solving a business problem, 1968, University of Michigan

Group 1: Instructions = 39%Group 2: Instructions + “be creative”

= 52%

5. Screen Alternatives

•Link to objectives•Gut check

6. Decide

Satisfice vs. Maximize

Decision-Making Process

1. Evaluate the Problem2. Identify the Objective3. Plan the Decision4. Generate Alternatives5. Screen Alternatives6. Decide

Ego in Decision Making1/3 ego drove the decision81% edict or persuasion drove the

decision2/3 never explored alternatives once

they made up their minds

- Dr. Paul Nutt, Why Decisions Fail

Ego in Decision-Making

1. Being defensive2. Showcasing your

brilliance3. Seeking approval

- MarcumSmith, BusinessThink

Strengths x Ego = Weakness

ConfidenceQuicknessSharp witDeterminationDedicationCommitmentPerseverancePersuasive

Sense of infallibilityOverhastinessAbrasivenessInflexibilityWorkaholismIntoleranceResistance to changeManipulation

- Adapted from The Paradox of Success by John O’Neil

How to Combat Ego• Exercise humility• Assume good intentions• Focus on the issue at hand• Understand the intent and

purpose of the question

- MarcumSmith, BusinessThink

The people who get on in this world are the people who get up and look for circumstances they want,

and if they can’t find them, make them.

- George Bernard Shaw

The nicest thing about not planning is that failure comes as a complete surprise rather than being preceded by a period of worry and depression.

- Sir John Harvey-Jones