Decision Economies - Dataföreningen Kompetens@cyetain Knowledge can only be volunteered it cannot...
Transcript of Decision Economies - Dataföreningen Kompetens@cyetain Knowledge can only be volunteered it cannot...
@cyetain
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Joshua (Jabe) Bloom
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=0130d003aa&view=att&th=1454b6fdf9da6bbb&attid=0.1.1&disp=emb&zw&atsh=0@cyetain
No man treats a motor car as foolishly as he treats another human being. When the car will not go, he does not attribute its annoying behavior to sin, he does not say, "You are a wicked motorcar, and I shall not give you any more petrol until you go." He attempts to find out what is
wrong and set it right. !
-Bertrand Russell
@cyetain
We sail within a vast sphere, ever drifting in uncertainty, driven
from end to end. !
-Blaise Pascal
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decidere "to decide, determine," literally "to cut off,"
from de-"off" (see de-)+caedere "to cut"
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It has been said that man is a rational
animal. All my life I have been searching for evidence which could support this.
-Russell
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Biased Rationality
Regular measurable deviation from rational judgement caused by
cognitive or motivational influences
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Knowledge can only be volunteered it cannot be conscripted.
!We only know what we know when we need to know
it. !
Everything is fragmented !
The way we know things is not the way we report we know things.
!We always know more than we can say, and we will
always say more than we can write down.
@cyetain
Information, skill and knowledge are embedded in networks and
relationships. !
Individuals, instead of “owning” information, attract, translate and
know how to and where to access to the information that
emerges in the networks around them.
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Peter’s PrincipleIn a hierarchy every employee tends to rise to his
level of incompetence ... in time every post tends to be occupied by an employee who is incompetent to
carry out its duties ... Work is accomplished by those employees who have not yet reached their
level of incompetence.
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Economies
An economy or economic system consists of the production, distribution or trade, and consumption of limited goods and services by different agents in a given
geographical location.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy
@cyetain
Strategy
Operating
Tactical
Experiment
Task
Quarters
Month
Week
Days
Hours
Pop The Why Stack
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Information is the resolution of uncertainty.
!
-Claude Shannon
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PROTIP (for Human Systems Thinkers) !
Human Error is Aleatory !
(systems that assume infallibility of human reason WILL fail)
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If the time it takes to recover, is greater than the time you can survive, you die.
!
Which means you need more options.
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Given there are NO other OPTIONS, if you do not have good information
you are about to convert a SPECULATIVE Option into a COMMITMENT
@cyetain
Estimates are a function of Duration and
Uncertainty (often reduced to a single
variable duration)
@cyetain
Decision
Commitment
Option
Pragmatic Action
Epistemic Action
Result
Option Expiration
Success Criteria
Expiration Criteria
Bounds the
Option
Unbounded Uncertainty
Causes Stress
Defer Decision
@cyetain
The temporal and social distance between relevant
information and those making decisions impacts the quality, efficiency and timeliness of those decisions
@cyetain
Distributed decision making enable faster
cycle times. !
Faster cycle times enable more options and
therefore less “big bet” risks.
@cyetain
Faster cycle times result in higher quality customer interactions.
!
Resulting in higher quality software
@cyetain
More Options More Value !
More Time More Information !
More Information & Options Better Decisions
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Donald Reinertsen
David Snowden
Chris Matts
Olav Maassen
Troy Magennis
David Anderson
@cyetain
blog http://jabe.co Send Anonymous Feedback
http://sayat.me/jabebloom
Joshua (Jabe) Bloom