Decision and Policy Analysis

www.ciat.cgiar.orgSince 1967 / Science to cultivate change

Andy Jarvis23 March 2013

• The misfits of CIAT (or the rest of CIAT are the misfits)

• Cross-cutting, multi-disciplinary team who believe that better decisions can be made with the power of information

• Supporting functions within CIAT, and global research leadership in specific themes

Decision and Policy Analysis

• Focussed on delivering research outcomes in:

o Climate change (CRP7)

o Ecosystem Services (CRP5)

o Linking Farmers to Markets (CRP2)

• Through expert, disciplinary groups in:

o Modelling

o Gender analysis

o Impact and Strategic Studies

o Policy Analysis

o Knowledge Management

o Big Data

Decision and Policy Analysis

Climate change: Let’s start with our mandate crops

What will be the role of cassava in a climate changed world?

• We know cassava is a resistant crop….

• …..but will it stand up to climate change?

• How does it fair up with other major staples?

• What are the research challenges over the coming decades?

• What has all this got to do with film stars?

Current suitability

Future suitability change

What will this mean for cassava?

The Rambo root!

But what about other staples?

The Rambo root versus Mr. Bean

Cassava suitability change compared with other staples

• Cassava consistently outperforms other staples in terms of changes in suitability

Cassava’s role as a substitution crop

• Cassava as a fallback crop under an uncertain climate (risk management)

• Cassava as the substitution crop for other staples more sensitive to heat and drought

• Ongoing: finalizing a cassava mechanistic model to further support breeding programs

Getting to grips with climate adaptation: The right choices

Evaluating varietal adaptationV

ar. C

ario

ca

Var

. Cal

ima

Var

. Jam

apa

Likely yield with different planting dates

Modelling potential losses from extreme events with different planting dates

Benefits of potential adaptation options: conservation agriculture

% y

ield

loss

% water deficit

Playing out transformative climate smart adaptation in CCAFS benchmark sites in East Africa: When, where, how and with whom?

CCAFS sites Main crops Main livestock

(forages)

Borana(ET)Maize

(96.6%)

Beans

(86.4%)

Wheat

(33.1%)

Beef cattle

(93.2%)

Goats

(77.8%)

Nyando (KE)Maize

(99.2%)

Sorghum

(73.3%)

Beans

(34.4%)

Goats

(66.9%)

Chicken/hens

(61.2%)

Usambara (TZ)Maize

(87.1%)

Beans

(75%)

Tomatoes

(29%)

Chicken/hens

(82.1%)

Dairy cows

(56.4%)

Albertine

Rift (UG)

Cassava

(78.6%)

Beans

(68.4%)

Sweet

potatoes

(59.8%)

Chicken/hens

(82.5%)Pigs (63.1%)

Where do we work?

Climate smart agriculture: tackling adoption head on

Rash model (Campell, 1963): Attitude towards change = number + difficulty of change made

Gender Dimensions

• Why consider gender?

o To develop appropriate adaptation strategies for both male and female farmers (to ensure inclusion of female farmers)

• Findings (Context Specific)

o Gender division of labor

o Decision-making

o Control and Access of Resources

Relations with the Host Country:CIAT-Ministry of Agriculture Agreement on

Integrative analysis of production systems in Colombia for adaptation to climate

Objective of the Agreement

Unite effort, resources and capacity between the ministry and CIAT to strengthen the agricultural and livestock sector to adaptto climate change, and improve the resource use-efficiency in prioritised production systems

• US$8m, 18 months, 11 national partners, 3 internationalpartners

• “CCAFS Colombia”, 4 themes

• Improved crop models, seasonal climate and cropforecasting, carbon and water footprints, varietal evaluationacross climate gradients

• Direct input into National Adaptation Plan for the AgriculturalSector, and the national mitigation plan for the agriculturalsector

Rewarding for Ecosystem Servicesin watersheds

Different groups want different things

• Downstream

o Urban dwellers want clean, reliable water supplies o Lowland farmers want cheap, reliable irrigation water o Tourists want clean, attractive water

• Midstream

o Hydropower companies want reliable low-silt water without having to invest in large storage reservoirs

• Upstream

o Highland communities want to live better o Citizens want to preserve highland ecosystem services

Up

per b

asin(4

00

0-5

80

0

Ecosystem service provision (Water yield (mm))

1111-1507

Mid

dle b

asin(3

50

–4

00

0

51-256

Low

erb

asin

(0-3

50

)

0-50

Peruvian case study, Canete River watershed – Current situation

Up

per b

asin(4

00

0-5

80

0

River flow use (m3/s)

0 (mostly from springs)

Mid

dle b

asin(3

50

–4

00

0 250, 64

Low

erb

asin

(0-3

50

)U

pp

er b

asin(4

00

0-5

80

0

Water and land uses

Extensive degrading grazing, subsistence agriculture

Mid

dle b

asin(3

50

–4

00

0

Hydropower companyShrimp growers

Low

erb

asin

(0-3

50

)

Urban dwellersWater inefficient commercial agricultureTourists (rafting)

Desired situation

Up

per b

asin(4

00

0-5

80

0M

idd

le basin

(35

0–

40

00

Low

erb

asin

(0-3

50

)

Transfer part of their benefits

Investment in productive alternatives

Watershed’s socioeconomic asymmetries might be balanced by this benefit-sharing mechanism

Research outputs and intermediate project outcomes

• Conceptual approach: Adopted by MINAM …Is not only about paying for improving the delivery of the ESS but also aboutrewarding for ESS alreadybeing delivered (positive externalities)

Recently presented byVice-Ministry of Environment

(Nov, 2012)

Where we are right now: Putting research into use

• Participating in drafting national Ecosystem Services Law that draws on Cañete experience: Final version of ESS Law before Congress for approval

• Other case study catchments (6 others) contributing to a systematic review of potential for benefit sharing schemes in Andes

Linking Farmers to Markets

Under what conditions can market linkages be an effective tool for rural poverty reduction for gender and socially differentiated actors?

Iterative process of design, testing and documentation of approaches for inclusive business models, R4D platforms and public policies in Latin America, E. Africa and S.E. Asia

Donors, business and civil society are in broad consensus on

benefits of linking smallholders to markets.

• Many islands of success but few cases of sustained, transformational

change that benefit women, minorities and the rural poor.

• The concept is clear but HOW to achieve beneficial and sustained

market access is not.

• Need to understand appropriate roles for public, private and civil society

actors

AMBITIOUS DESTINATIONS,

FEW ROADS

Supply chain policies in Colombia

Policy density (# chains) by Department

CUADRO 4 10 ORGANIZACIONES DE LAS CADENAS PRODUCTIVAS:

ANALISIS DE FOCALIZACIÓN FOCALIZACIÓN GEOGRÁFICA

Aguacate Arroz Cacao Caucho Cítricos

Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI

% Población con NBI

% Población Rural con NBI

Índice Desarrollo Humano

Índice Gini de Tierras 2009

Índice Gini de Propietarios 2009

Núm. Intervenciones USAID (Programas MIDAS y ADAM)

Núm. Intervenciones MADR (Oportunidades Rurales y Alianzas Productivas)

FOCALIZACIÓN GEOGRÁFICA

Fique Fruticola Guayaba Mango Platano

Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI

% Población con NBI

% Población Rural con NBI

Índice Desarrollo Humano

Índice Gini de Tierras 2009

Índice Gini de Propietarios 2009

Núm. Intervenciones USAID (Programas MIDAS y ADAM)

Núm. Intervenciones MADR (Oportunidades Rurales y Alianzas Productivas)

Social performance by supply chain

Policy performance by Department

Quantitative macro analysis(policies & development outcomes)

Qualitative meso analysis (why does the policy work /fail?)

Household level surveys(what does it mean for the poor?)

Research

Incidence

Thinking through impact

Strategy & Results Framework:Performance management….

• Over 5.3 million rural households in sub-Saharan Africa have adopted modern bean varieties over the last 17 years, generating benefits worth nearly US$200 million

• Adoption of improved cassava varieties in Thailand and Vietnam has nearly reached 90%, creating benefits worth almost $12 billion over the last 20 years

• Improved forages now cover an area estimated at 25.4 million hectares in tropical America, generating huge benefits through improved livestock production – estimated at $1 billion in Colombia, for example

• Nearly 60% of Latin America’s rice area is planted to improved rice, with benefits valued at $860 million from 1967 to 1995 alone

Examples of Impacts

LAC Foresight: CIAT, IADB and IICA

• Presented at GCARD2

• Resulted from IADB Workshop March 2012, and CIAT hosted expert meeting October 2012

• First concrete step towards a longer term combined effort – a regional platform?

Big Data: The engine behind it all

• Great climate data

• Improved soil information

• Crop distribution and yield data

• Land-use data

• Capacity to manage and analyze it:

o Infrastructure

o Geeks

CCAFS Climate: 40,000 users in 18 months

Agtrials http://agtrials.org/

Public data! 4296 trials

20000 varieties/races

• Calibration, validation of crop models

• Exploration and testing of adaptation options

o Genetic improvemento On-farm management

practices

• Assess technology transfer options

• Build “adaptation packages”

ResultsLatin America

Loss detections

Jan 2004

Oct 2012

Terra-i is a system of habitat changesmonitoring that uses different mathematicalmodels that combine vegetation data (MODIS NDVI) and precipitation data (TRMM) to detect deviations from the natural cycle of the vegetation over time and thus antrophogenic impacts onnatural ecosystems

What is Terra-

It has maps of habitat loss every 16 days at the continental level with 250 meters of spatial resolution

Case study: Sierra de Rio Tinto National Forest, Sanguijuelosa Forest

Sanguijuelosa Forest Photo, GreenWood, Feb 2013

Visualization tool

- Explore, visualize and get Terra-i data for Latin-America -http://www.terra-i.org/

In conclusion….

• Science informed laws on benefit sharing

• Better national plans and policies for dealing with climate change

• Breeders breeding for the right traits

• Farmers and their organizations making the right choices in a dynamic climate

• Countries tackling deforestation head on with REDD+ (e.g. Bolivia)

• Some very motivated and dedicated geeky misfits

• And much more….

CIAT: Science to Cultivate Change

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