Decision analysis and risk management: Introduction to course

Jouni Tuomisto, THL

Outline for session 1 (28.2.)

• Introduction and objectives of the DARM course

• Practicalities: schedule, website– http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm

• Lectures and classroom exercises

• Case study exercise– Group work: decision analysis on swine flu case– Individual work: risk management analysis on swine flu

• Evaluation and credits

• Guidance, help, and communication

• What are DA and RM?

• Introduction to the swine flu case in Finland

Objectives of the course.The student should:

• Get a good overview of modern assessment methods.

• Learn basic concepts of decision analysis.

• Learn to use decision analysis in practice.

• Understand the connections between societal decision-making and decision analysis.

• Be able to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of decision analysis.

• Know how to build a decision analysis based on the requirements of risk management.  

• Be able to utilize modern web workspaces for decision analysis.

Schedule of the course

– http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm

Lectures and classroom exercises

• Theory of DA & RM

• Swine flu story discussions– Considering the theory in a practical context

• Exercises– Calculation exercises– Using Opasnet

Case study exercise

• Analyze the swine flu case and consider yourself as giving advice to the Ministry of Social and Health affairs of Finland

– What could be learned from the swine flu case for improving public health risk management in Finland?

• Exercise consists of two parts:– Decision analysis study plan (group work)– Risk management analysis (individual work)

• Case study exercise description and instructions: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Category:DARM_exercise

Decision analysis study plan

• Plan a decision analysis study on the swine flu case– Background description– Purpose and scope of the study– Analysis plan– (Expected) results

• If possible, the plans can try to be realized, at least partially– Write the plan in Opasnet

• Group work – 3-4 people/group– Recommended: at least one fluent in Finnish in each group

• Some swine flu case material only available in Finnish

Risk management analysis

• Analyze risk management in the swine flu case and consider alternative ways to making it

– Background (cf. DA study plan background)– RM in the swine flu case– Alternative approach to (a part of) RM in the swine flu– Alternative vs. actual– Conclusions and recommendation (for the Ministry)– Write your report in Opasnet

• Individual work• Not limited by the scope of the DA study plan of the

group one attended

Hints to making case study exercise

• Build on: – theory lectures and classroom exercises on this course – classroom discussions on the swine flu case as a DA and RM

problem – materials listed and linked to on the course web-page – the demonstrator DA model – assessments in Opasnet – descriptions of assessment and variable objects in Opasnet– other related information e.g. on the web and libraries – your own expertise and opinions – other groups'/individuals' exercise works

• Clear and focused scoping is important!

Using Opasnet

• Basics: 4.3. 9-12, MC9

• Possible problems can be discussed in classroom as they occur

• Discussion and argumentation exercise 1.4. 9-12, MC9

Evaluation and credits

• DARM: 6 ECTS– Whole course obligatory for ToxEn students– For others partial accomplishments are also possible

• Lectures and classroom exercises: 3 ECTS• Case study exercises: 3 ECTS

– Decision analysis study plan 2 ECTS– Risk management analysis 1 ECTS

• Lectures are voluntary, but highly recommended– Active participation practically necessary for

successful accomplishment of exercises

Evaluation and credits

• 2/3 * exercise grade + 1/3 * classroom exercise grade = overall course grade

Evaluation and credits

• Classroom exercise evaluation– Scoring of some calculation exercises

• Marko will explain details at the exercises– Bonus for active participation in classroom

Evaluation and credits

• Exercise evaluation– DA study plan = 2/3 of the exercise grade– RM analysis = 1/3 of the exercise grade– Bonus for active commenting and discussion in

Opasnet– Clarity and reasoning (not length)

• Basis for evaluation (to be) explained in more detail on the case study exercise page

Guidance, help and communication during the course

• General arrangements

• Case study exercise

• Technical help

• Commenting and discussion in Opasnet

What are DA and RM?

Swine flu case in Finland