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Decision Analysis A. A. Elimam College of Business San Francisco State University.
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Transcript of Decision Analysis A. A. Elimam College of Business San Francisco State University.
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Decision AnalysisDecision Analysis
A. A. ElimamA. A. ElimamCollege of BusinessCollege of Business
San Francisco State UniversitySan Francisco State University
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Characteristics of a Good Characteristics of a Good DecisionDecision
Based on Logic Considers all Possible Alternatives Uses all Available Data Applies Quantitative Approach
Decision Analysis Frequently results in a favorable outcome
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Decision Analysis (DA) StepsDecision Analysis (DA) Steps
Clearly define the problem List all possible alternatives Identify possible outcomes Determine payoff for each
alternative/outcome Select one of the DA models Apply model to make decision
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Types of Decision Making (DM)Types of Decision Making (DM)
DM under Certainty: Select the alternative with the Maximum payoff
DM under Uncertainty: Know nothing about probability
DM under Risk: Only know the probability of occurrence of each outcome
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Decision Table ExampleDecision Table Example
200,000
100,000
0
-180,000
-20,000
0
Favorable($) Unfavorable($)Alternatives
Large Plant
Small Plant
Do Nothing
State of Nature (Market)
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Decision Making Under RiskDecision Making Under Risk
Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
EMV (Alternative i) =
(Payoff of first State of Nature-SN) x (Prob. of first SN) + (Payoff of second SN) x (Prob. of Second SN) + (Payoff of third State of Nature-SN) x (Prob. of third SN) + . . . + (Payoff of last SN) x (Prob. of last SN)
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Thompson Lumber ExampleThompson Lumber Example
EMV(Large F.) =
(0.50)($200,000)+(0.5)(-180,000)= $10,000
EMV(Small F.) =
(0.50)($100,000)+(0.5)(-20,000)= $40,000
EMV(Do Nothing) =
(0.50)($0)+(0.5)(0)= $0
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Thompson LumberThompson Lumber
200,000
100,000
0
-180,000
-20,000
0
Favorable ($) Unfavorable ($)Alternatives
Large Plant
Small Plant
Do Nothing
State of Nature (Market)
EMV ($)
Probabilities 0.5 0.5
10,000
40,000
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Expected Value of PerfectExpected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) Information (EVPI)
Expected Value with Perfect Information =
(Best Outcome for first SN) x (Prob. of first SN) + (Best Outcome for second SN) x (Prob. of Second SN) +
. . . + (Best Outcome for last SN) x (Prob. of last SN)
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Expected Value of Perfect Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI)Information (EVPI)
EVPI = Expected Outcome with Perfect Information - Expected Outcome without Perfect Information
EVPI = Expected Value with Perfect Information - Maximum EMV
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Thompson LumberThompson LumberExpected Value of Perfect Information
Best Outcome For Each SN •Favorable: Large plant, Payoff = $200,000 •Unfavorable: Do Nothing, Payoff = $0
So Expected Value with Perfect Info.
= (0.50)($200,000)+(0.5)(0)= $100,000
The Max. EMV = $ 40,000 EVPI = $100,000 - $40,000 = $ 60,000
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Decision Table ExampleDecision Table Example
200
160
0
270
800
0
Low ($) High ($)Alternative
Small Facility
Large Facility
Do Nothing
Possible Future Demand
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Example A.5Example A.5
200
160
0
270
800
0
Low ($) High ($)Alternatives
Small
Large
Do Nothing
Demand
EMV ($)
Probabilities 0.4 0.6
242
544
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Example A.8Example A.8Expected Value of Perfect Information
Best Outcome For Each SN •High Demand: Large , Payoff = $800 •Low Demand : Small , Payoff = $200
So Expected Value with Perfect Info.
= (0.60)($800)+(0.4)(200)= $560
The Max. EMV = $ 544 EVPI = $ 560 - $ 544 = $ 16
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Opportunity Loss : Thompson LumberOpportunity Loss : Thompson Lumber
200,000-200,000
200,000-100,000
200,000-0
0-(-180,000)
0-(-20,000)
0 - 0
Favorable ($) Unfavorable($)
State of Nature (Market)
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Opportunity Loss : Thompson LumberOpportunity Loss : Thompson Lumber
0
100,000
200,000
180,000
20,000
0
Favorable ($) Unfavorable ($)Alternatives
Large Plant
Small Plant
Do Nothing
State of Nature (Market)
EOL ($)
Probabilities 0.5 0.5
90,000
60,000
100,000
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Sensitivity AnalysisSensitivity AnalysisEMV, $
0
-100,000
1
Values of P
-200,000
100,000
200,000
EMV(LF)
EMV(DN)
EMV(SF)
Point 2, p=0.62 Point 1
p=0.167
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One Time DecisionOne Time Decision
Fruit Baskets: GivenDemand and Associated ProbabilitiesCost = $ 10/ unit Selling Price = $ 15/unitFind the Quantity yielding Maximum EMV
Probability 0.3 0.5 0.2Demand, DQuantity,Q
10 25 40 EMV
10 $50 $50 $50 $5025 -$100 $125 $125 $57.5040 -$250 -$25 $200 -$47.5
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Decision TreesDecision Trees
Decision Table: Only Columns-Rows
Columns: State of Nature
Rows: Alternatives- 1 Decision ONLY
For more than one Decision Trees
Decision Trees can handle a sequence of one or more decision(s)
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Decision TreesDecision Trees
Two Types of Nodes
Selection Among Alternatives
State of Nature
Branches of the Decision Tree
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Decision Tree: ExampleDecision Tree: Example
SmallLarge
Do Nothing
Unfavorable (0.5)
F. (0.5)
Favorable (0.5)
U. (0.5)
U. (0.5)
F. (0.5)
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A Decision Tree for Capacity ExpansionA Decision Tree for Capacity Expansion(Payoff in thousands of dollars)(Payoff in thousands of dollars)
Low demand [0.40]$70
High demand [0.60]
($135)
2
Low demand [0.40]$40
High demand [0.60]$220
($109)
($148)
($148)
1
Don’t expand$90
Expand$135
Small expansion
Large expansion
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Decision Tree for RetailerDecision Tree for Retailer
3
2
1
Low demand [0.4]$200
Don’t expand$223
Expand$270
Do nothing$40
AdvertiseModest response [0.3]
$20
Sizable response [0.7]
$220
High demand [0.6]$800
($544)
($544)
($160)
($160)
($270)
($242)
Large facility Low demand
[0.4]
Small facil
ityHigh demand
[0.6]