Decentralized Planning and Adaptation to Drought in Rural Northeast Brazil:

An Application of GIS and Participatory Appraisal toward Transparent Governance

Timothy J. Finan (University of Arizona)

Donald R. Nelson(Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research)

OutlineHow Does Governance Shape AdaptationCeará: the Case StudyPatron-Client Relations as Bad GovernanceMAPLAN Subversive TacticsChallenges to Change in Governance

Definitions

Vulnerability

The susceptibility to disturbances determined by exposure to perturbations, sensitivity to perturbations, and the capacity to adapt

Adaptation

The decision-making process and the set of actions undertaken to maintain the capacity to deal with current or future predicted change

Articulation of scaleDistribution of impactsMultidimensionality of factorsNeed for local participation

The Capacity to Adapt: Common Characteristics

How Does Governance Affect Adaptation?

(positive) Public investment in vulnerability reduction

Mobilization of local resources/support of private forms of adaptation

Creation of a shared vision, participatory decision making

Representation of the most vulnerable: social justice

Monitoring and evaluation of change and policies (accountability/transparency)

A Case Study from Northeast Brazil

the State of Ceará

Population: 8 million, 30% rural

46% economically active in agriculture, BUT agriculture GDP is 6%

Rural population subsistence rainfed farmers (75% beneath the WB poverty line)

Year Município Limoeiro do

Norte Barbalha Parambu Boa Viagem Itarema Guaraciaba

do Norte Ceará

1974 679.4 1461.0 - 1067.7 - 1598.0 1579.0 1975 871.3 1234.7 - 992.1 - 1605.4 1141.0 1976 532.0 681.4 - 411.0 - 972.9 793.0 1977 1060.0 929.8 - 832.9 - 1372.9 1107.0 1978 914.0 1168 266.0 548.3 - 932.9 853.7 1979 701.5 1389.6 475.2 460.3 - 1049.6 679.7 1980 824.3 919.8 554.6 350.3 - 785.3 784.7

1981* 692.8 571.3 553.9 693.0 - 977.8 662.2 1982* 601.6 564.2 487.3 592.7 - 867.0 706.9 1983* 320.9 752.8 327.8 261.9 - 415.8 432.7 1984* 1289.1 1091.9 922.6 910.6 - 1536.4 1118.6

1985 1624.4 2147.5 2237.1 1371.3 - 2602.2 1890.6 1986 1310 1139.2 1114.0 973.0 - 1961.4 1317.0

1987* 734.9 875.8 514.3 454.0 - 1155.8 739.0 1988 849.0 1321.2 814.1 868.6 - 1428.0 1161.1 1989 990.0 1567.3 1378.9 1121.8 968.0 1627.0 1265.9 1990 425.4 791.3 494.0 550.3 689.0 1000.4 627.4

1991* 430.1 926.0 583.8 499.0 1281.3 1301.4 775.5 1992* 592.2 973.0 427.9 679.4 693.2 1008.0 693.7 1993* 285.6 743.9 489.7 183.8 615.5 484.0 420.0

1994 684.2 1063.3 1015.8 761.0 1713.7 1779.6 1166.6 1995 933.4 1059.4 766.5 751.0 1547.5 1462.2 1083.2 1996 760.0 1528.6 624.0 667.8 1490.8 1421.6 1066.9

1997* 410.1 855.8 643.8 536.6 689.3 1258.6 709.1 1998* 313.0 759.2 343.5 394.9 923.4 714.3 - Avg. 720.5 1153.0 532.1 703.8 1139.7 1273.0 949.9 Min. 285.6 564.2 266.0 183.8 615.5 415.8 420.0 Max. 1624.4 1461.0 1378.9 1371.3 1713.7 2602.2 1890.6 S.D. 331.4 363.41 445.3 289.3 412.8 481.5 352.3

Annual Precipitation for six municípios

Seasonal and Monthly Precipitation

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1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997

(Mean = 207 mm)

Average monthly rain for Ceará (mm)

Observed March rainfallParambu (mm)

Governance in Ceará

Patron-client relations as the fundamental form of social organization and resources distribution

Domination of the local political elite

Little sense of rights of citizenship

Prefeitos (as), Prefeituras, Vereadores, Municípios

PATRONAGE AND DROUGHT CRISIS MANAGEMENT: THE INDUSTRY OF DROUGHT

Ironic Adaptation: people pray for drought

Ironic adaptation

“Por aqui nós rezamos pela seca”Anonymous - Boa Viagem, Ceará 2001

Adaptation to Drought

Nelson and Finan, in revision

Access to Water

Rainwater cisterns

Water delivery

Public works projectsRoad clearing

Food distribution

NON-ADAPTIVE PATRONAGE

Participatory mapping for public planningCo-opting the paradigm shift Restructure the process of development and emergency relief planning in Ceará through the engagement of civil society

Increases transparency and accountability in the planning process

Encourages communication between civil society and the public sector

www.projetomaplan.com

Methodology Participatory GIS

Map vulnerabilities and assets

Data generated by participants

Agenda set by participants

Drought as a reality; what is “normal”?

Emergency and long-term plans

Government obligation

Outputs

Maps are:

• Means to an end

• Legitimate representation of reality

• Dynamic

• The final goal

• The only source of information

• Finished products

Maps are not:

ResultsMore equitable resource distributionLocal ownership of outputsLocal ownership of processNew relationships between civil society and the government

Co-existing with the semi-arid

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450

1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997

(Mean = 207 mm)

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

PARTICIPATORY GOVERNANCE

ARTICULATION OF SCALES

LOCAL DECISION-MAKING

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

MAPLAN: SUBVERSIVE TACTICS

OBJECTIVITY: THE LEGITIMIZATION OF SCIENCE IN THE ASSESSMENT PHASE

PARTICIPATION: CO-OPTING THE DISCOURSE

DECENTRALIZATION: PROVIDING THE MEANS

LOCAL PLANNING: REVERSING THE FLOW

TRANSPARENCY: THE VISUALITY OF MAPS

ACCOUNTABILITY: MOVING FROM ‘RED’ TO ‘GREEN’

MAPLAN: NEXT STEPS

INSTITUTIONALIZATION

LOCAL LEVEL CAPACITY-BUILDING

COMMUNITY-DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT

WWW.PROJETOMAPLAN.COM