December 2012 January 2013 CERI Commodity Report — Crude Oil · 2019-06-22 · CERI Commodity...
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December 2012-January 2013 CERI Commodity Report — Crude Oil Relevant • Independent • Objecve CERI Commodity Report – Crude Oil Editor-in-Chief: Dinara Millington ([email protected]) About CERI The Canadian Energy Research Instute is an independent, not-for-profit research establishment created through a partnership of industry, academia, and government in 1975. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, objecve economic research in energy and related environmental issues. We strive to build bridges between scholarship and policy, combining the insights of scienfic research, economic analysis, and praccal experience. In doing so, we broaden the knowledge of young researchers in areas related to energy, the economy, and the environment while honing their experse in a range of analycal techniques. For more informaon about CERI, please visit our website at www.ceri.ca. Stephen Harper approved the CNOOC-Nexen deal and a $5-billion takeover of Progress Energy by Malaysian state -owned enterprise (SOE) Petronas while cauoning there would be no more take-overs in the oil sands. 1 Harper said foreign-state control of oil sands development in parcular has reached the point where further control would not be beneficial to Canada. The deal is the largest -ever acquision by a Chinese company, and gives China a more acve presence in Canada’s oil sands. (China has already made investments totaling nearly $3 billion in Canada.) The deal prompted a wave of economic naonalism as polls suggested more than 70 percent of Canadians oppose state-run foreign corporaons controlling Canada's natural resources. The company is sll awaing US approval over its purchase of Nexen assets in the Gulf of Mexico and UK approval over the North Sea assets that Nexen held. The Alberta government provided Oawa a list of condions it wanted aached to any federal approval of the CNOOC -Nexen transacon. Those condions reportedly included guarantees that at least half of Nexen’s board and management posions would be held by Canadians; for CNOOC to maintain current staffing levels for at least five years; and a commitment to maintain planned capital spending. In a news release, CNOOC said it will “seek to retain” Nexen’s current management team and employees, and invest “significant capital” on oil and gas resources in Canada. CNOOC has also promised to make Calgary its North and Central American headquarters and to list CNOOC shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange. 2 2. Pipeline Opposions 2012 was also a year of campaigns by environmental and other groups against the development of the oil sands, which transformed into connental protests against carriers of oil sands bitumen, in other words, pipelines. This created far-reaching challenges for the proposed Northern Gateway and Trans-Mountain oil pipeline’s expansion projects in Brish Columbia and the Keystone XL in Nebraska and Texas. Public hearings in Brish Columbia and Alberta over Enbridge's $5.5-billion Northern Gateway project provided the venue for a year of protests in Canada. This hearing had over 4,000 registered parcipants to speak at the hearing. Top Five Canadian Energy Stories of 2012 Keeping on top of the news that is generated every day by the oil and gas industry is not an easy task. The year 2012 lacked a top-hit energy story like the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010 or the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster of 2011. According to Associated Press polling, the slow economic recovery came up as the year’s top story, which is not hard to believe as 2012 was another year of the ongoing European financial crisis as well as connuing lack of cooperaon by US policians over the government debt, which threatens to destabilize the world's largest economy. The Canadian economy performed beer than most economies, but not without its hiccups. The threat of "Dutch Disease" produced by Alberta's expanding oil industry pushing up the loonie and undermining the economy in the East was a persistent and highly polical story for much of the year. The theory was quickly disproved by many, including Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney. So it is no surprise that energy issues were the big story in Canada in 2012 and these were the top five. 1. CNOOC-Nexen Takeover China has long held ambions with respect to North American resources. In 2005, China Naonal Offshore Oil Corporaon Limited (CNOOC) made a takeover bid for US -based Unocal, which was the ninth largest US energy company. The bid ran into serious polical opposion, and was ulmately withdrawn. In 2012, CNOOC made a successful $15.1 billion bid to take over Canadian oil company Nexen. Aſter repeated delays, Prime Minister
Transcript of December 2012 January 2013 CERI Commodity Report — Crude Oil · 2019-06-22 · CERI Commodity...
December 2012-January 2013
CERI Commodity Report — Crude Oil
Relevant • Independent • Objective
CERI Commodity Report – Crude Oil Editor-in-Chief: Dinara Millington ([email protected]) About CERI The Canadian Energy Research Institute is an independent, not-for-profit research establishment created through a partnership of industry, academia, and government in 1975. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, objective economic research in energy and related environmental issues. We strive to build bridges between scholarship and policy, combining the insights of scientific research, economic analysis, and practical experience. In doing so, we broaden the knowledge of young researchers in areas related to energy, the economy, and the environment while honing their expertise in a range of analytical techniques. For more information about CERI, please visit our website at www.ceri.ca.
Stephen Harper approved the CNOOC-Nexen deal and a $5-billion takeover of Progress Energy by Malaysian state-owned enterprise (SOE) Petronas while cautioning there would be no more take-overs in the oil sands.1 Harper said foreign-state control of oil sands development in particular has reached the point where further control would not be beneficial to Canada. The deal is the largest-ever acquisition by a Chinese company, and gives China a more active presence in Canada’s oil sands. (China has already made investments totaling nearly $3 billion in Canada.) The deal prompted a wave of economic nationalism as polls suggested more than 70 percent of Canadians oppose state-run foreign corporations controlling Canada's natural resources. The company is still awaiting US approval over its purchase of Nexen assets in the Gulf of Mexico and UK approval over the North Sea assets that Nexen held. The Alberta government provided Ottawa a list of conditions it wanted attached to any federal approval of the CNOOC-Nexen transaction. Those conditions reportedly included guarantees that at least half of Nexen’s board and management positions would be held by Canadians; for CNOOC to maintain current staffing levels for at least five years; and a commitment to maintain planned capital spending. In a news release, CNOOC said it will “seek to retain” Nexen’s current management team and employees, and invest “significant capital” on oil and gas resources in Canada. CNOOC has also promised to make Calgary its North and Central American headquarters and to list CNOOC shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange.2 2. Pipeline Oppositions 2012 was also a year of campaigns by environmental and other groups against the development of the oil sands, which transformed into continental protests against carriers of oil sands bitumen, in other words, pipelines. This created far-reaching challenges for the proposed Northern Gateway and Trans-Mountain oil pipeline’s expansion projects in British Columbia and the Keystone XL in Nebraska and Texas. Public hearings in British Columbia and Alberta over Enbridge's $5.5-billion Northern Gateway project provided the venue for a year of protests in Canada. This hearing had over 4,000 registered participants to speak at the hearing.
Top Five Canadian Energy Stories of 2012 Keeping on top of the news that is generated every day by the oil and gas industry is not an easy task. The year 2012 lacked a top-hit energy story like the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010 or the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster of 2011. According to Associated Press polling, the slow economic recovery came up as the year’s top story, which is not hard to believe as 2012 was another year of the ongoing European financial crisis as well as continuing lack of cooperation by US politicians over the government debt, which threatens to destabilize the world's largest economy. The Canadian economy performed better than most economies, but not without its hiccups. The threat of "Dutch Disease" produced by Alberta's expanding oil industry pushing up the loonie and undermining the economy in the East was a persistent and highly political story for much of the year. The theory was quickly disproved by many, including Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney. So it is no surprise that energy issues were the big story in Canada in 2012 and these were the top five. 1. CNOOC-Nexen Takeover China has long held ambitions with respect to North American resources. In 2005, China National Offshore Oil Corporation Limited (CNOOC) made a takeover bid for US-based Unocal, which was the ninth largest US energy company. The bid ran into serious political opposition, and was ultimately withdrawn. In 2012, CNOOC made a successful $15.1 billion bid to take over Canadian oil company Nexen. After repeated delays, Prime Minister
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Meanwhile, the White House is delaying its decision again over TransCanada’s Keystone XL on the re-routed $7-billion pipeline until the first half of 2013. Canada's oil industry has a major challenge in that it needs new markets for its crude oil, but getting to those markets is more difficult than ever. In December, TD Economics said pipeline expansion in Canada must be "a national priority" or it will seriously challenge the long-term growth of the oil industry. 3. Differential Issues Prior to the shale and tight oil boom in the US and significant expansion of oil sands in Canada, the US and Canadian system for delivering crude oil to market was stable and relatively predictable. In general, the US and Canadian crude oil pipeline networks were originally designed for taking crude oil into the US Midwest. Then matters started to change as production started to rise, increasing the Cushing inventories, and pricing for WTI at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub, which had always run in close parity with Brent, started to disconnect. Discounts deepened, affecting essentially all inland Lower-48 crude grades, as well as Canadian crude oils (since these are also priced off WTI). Since January 2011, these discounts have been steep and have been considered ‘structural’.3
This year was the second consecutive year when Canadian oil and oil sands producers were faced with this on-going problem of large discounts to global and domestic crude prices. Rapid growth in the oil sands supply and a surge in US tight oil production translated into a double discount on Western Canadian oil from the top global prices. Simply put, benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trades at a discount to North Sea Brent (i.e., global benchmark) and Canadian heavy, represented by the Western Canadian Select (WCS), sells at a discount to WTI. In December of 2012, the WTI-WCS spread reached a record $40 per barrel and is estimated to cost Canadian producers, provincial and federal governments billions of dollars per year. 4. LNG Plans Amid the vigorous debate over oil pipelines and super tankers off the B.C. coast there has been remarkably little public opposition and significant Aboriginal support for the development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities at Prince Rupert and Kitimat. There are at least eight projects on the drawing board with Petronas, Shell and now Chevron taking key roles in some of the most
advanced projects. There could be significant LNG exports from Canada by late in this decade. Low continental prices and an abundance of natural gas have generated interest both publically and privately to look into exporting LNG. Of particular interest are the Asian markets where North American exporters hope to arbitrage high Asian prices against low continental prices. However, North American LNG exporters are not alone in trying to access the Asian gas premium. Australia has committed to considerable LNG export capacities and other gas producing countries are following suit. Concurrently, the abundance of continental gas supplies has increased domestic natural gas end-user demand within the utility, petrochemical, industrial and transportation sectors as well as sparked a debate on whether the United States should export large amounts of LNG. Thus, exporting LNG has significant challenges and North American exporters face considerable risks. With multiple pressures facing the North American LNG industry, many have been wondering if the window of opportunity for North American exports has vanished. The new CERI Study “Global LNG: Now, Never, or Later?” summarizes current regasification and liquefaction capacities, explains LNG pricing, and reviews some of the risks for North American LNG exporters.4 The study concludes with addressing the question of whether there is room for North American LNG exporters in an Asian-Pacific market. 5. Cumulative Effects of the Oil Sands Industry The new era of oil sands development in Alberta began in the mid-1990s. Due in part to lower production costs and higher oil prices, a record number of applications were made for new projects and for the expansion of existing oil sands operations in the region. This development resulted in questions about the ability of the environment to handle the level of projected growth and development in oil sands extraction and upgrading. It also resulted in increased stakeholder concern over the potential combined or cumulative effects that increased levels of industrial activity could have on the environment – on the land, water, and air. Cumulative environmental impacts could potentially affect environmental quality, biological diversity, and/or human health, resulting in habitat loss, wildlife loss, and a reduction in air and water quality. Since the first commercial oil sands production, Alberta delivered the Lower Athabasca Regional Plan to oversee development of this resource that produces close to 2 million barrels
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of oil a day. The issue of the cumulative effects from oil sands development was raised for the first time in 2012 as part of an environmental review for Shell's Jackpine mine expansion.5 Alberta had implemented changes to the provincial regulator by aligning its energy and environment ministries with the renamed Alberta Energy Regulator to improve oversight. As well, the industry announced the establishment of the Canadian Oil Sands Innovation Alliance (COSIA) on technology development and commercialization to address environmental issues. Shell announced it would proceed with its Quest Carbon Capture and Storage project to offset some of the greenhouse gas emissions generated from its oil sands operations. Along with these stories, there were some other notable ones, including a continuing pursuit of a National Energy Strategy by Alberta’s Premier; a well blowout near Innisfail that spilled 500 barrels of oil and water during a fracking job; approval of two north-south power lines in the Edmonton-Calgary corridor; and a wave of CEO departures, such as Rick George at Suncor Energy, John Manzoni at Talisman Energy, Pat Daniel at Enbridge and Mike Graham at Encana.
Endnotes 1The federal government released an updated foreign investment framework that establishes new rules for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and serves notice that foreign takeovers of Canadian oil sands companies won’t be permitted going forward, except on “an exceptional basis only.” 2http://www.cnooccanada.com/index.php/press-centre/press-releases.html 3To read more on differentials, see CERI Commodity Report- Crude Oil, November 2012. 4CERI Study No. 131. The study can be downloaded from www.ceri.ca 5Calgary Herald. “Ewart: Cumulative effects of oilsands development prominent as Jackpine hearing opens” http://www.calgaryherald.com/Ewart+Cumulative+effects+oilsands+development+prominent+Jackpine+hearing+opens/7467941/story.html#ixzz2KEShOXeM http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Ewart+Cumulative+effects+oilsands+development+prominent+Jackpine+hearing+opens/7467941/story.html
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World Supply and Demand Balance (MMbpd)
OPEC Crude Oil Production (MMbpd)
WTI Price Projections ($US/barrel)
2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
World Demand 88.0 88.9 89.8 90.8 88.7 87.6 89.4 89.7 89.1 89.0 90.0 91.2 90.1 89.6 91.3 92.0
OECD 46.9 46.5 46.1 45.7 47.1 45.3 46.9 46.7 46.3 45.6 45.9 46.5 46.0 44.8 45.8 46.3
non-OECD 41.1 42.4 43.7 45.0 41.5 42.3 42.6 43.0 42.8 43.4 44.0 44.7 44.1 44.9 45.4 45.8
World Supply 87.3 88.4 90.9 91.1 88.5 87.5 88.4 89.4 90.7 90.7 90.7 91.3 90.9 90.5 91.2 91.9
Non-OPEC 52.6 52.8 53.3 54.3 52.8 52.4 52.7 53.2 53.4 52.9 53.0 54.1 54.0 54.1 54.3 54.9
OPEC NGLs 5.4 5.8 6.2 6.5 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.6
OPEC Crude 26.8 27.2 28.4 27.2 29.9 29.4 29.9 30.3 31.3 31.7 31.4 30.9 30.6 30.0 30.3 30.4
Supply - Demand1 -0.7 -0.5 1.1 0.3 -0.3 0.0 -1.0 -0.3 1.7 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.9 -0.1 -0.3
OECD
Stocks (MMbbls) 2664 2631 2676 2665 2601 2659 2701 2738 2748 2785 2827 2821
Days Cover 57 58 57 57 56 58 59 59 60 62 62 61
Sustainable
Capacity Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
Saudi Arabia 10.85 10.22 9.65 9.36 2.17 1.60 1.31
Iran 4.00 2.72 2.70 2.70 -0.62 -0.64 -0.64
UAE 2.85 2.67 2.65 2.68 0.45 0.43 0.46
Kuwait 2.65 2.78 2.74 2.78 0.56 0.52 0.56
Qatar 0.90 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.01
Nigeria 2.60 1.98 1.88 2.10 0.31 0.21 0.43
Libya 1.75 1.42 1.45 1.40 -0.05 -0.02 -0.07
Algeria 1.43 1.12 1.18 1.18 -0.08 -0.02 -0.02
Ecuador 0.49 0.51 0.50 0.50 0.08 0.07 0.07
OPEC-11 32.12 28.09 27.69 27.67 -1.91 -2.31 -2.33
Iraq1 2.50 3.20 3.21 2.97
Total OPEC 34.62 31.29 30.90 30.64
Production Over (+)/Under (-) Target
2010 2011 2012 2013 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14
High Price Case 96.99 100.10 101.20 100.10 99.00 100.10 100.10
Reference Case 79.48 95.04 94.16 91.00 93.99 102.99 93.30 92.16 88.17 92.00 91.00 90.00 91.00 91.00
Low Price Case 74.94 77.35 78.20 77.35 76.50 77.35 77.35
Relevant • Independent • Objective
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Data Appendix
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A1: Historic Light Sweet Crude Futures Prices ($US per barrel)
A2: Historic Crude Product Futures Prices (¢US per gallon)
Notes (Tables A1 and A2): Prices are listed by contract month. Close: final contract close on the last day of trading. Last 3 Day Average Close: simple average con-
tract close on last three days of trading. Average When Near Month: simple average closing price on trading days when contract was near month. 12-Month Strip
Average: simple average of daily near 12-month contract closing prices in a given contract month. Spread: difference between one-month and two-month forward
prices in a given period. Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).
NYMEX Light Sweet Crude
Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread
Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.)
2010 77.20 77.37 78.28 81.19 -0.91
2011 94.11 93.62 94.15 96.21 -0.69
2012 94.86 95.15 95.30 96.89 -0.35
4Q 2011 90.07 90.29 88.55 89.59 -0.14
1Q 2012 100.51 99.50 99.42 100.76 -0.23
2Q 2012 99.85 100.62 103.27 104.98 -0.45
3Q 2012 89.97 90.19 87.38 88.91 -0.31
4Q 2012 89.12 90.30 91.12 92.91 -0.40
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -1.1% 0.0% 2.9% 3.7%
Jan-12 97.22 94.88 98.12 99.19 -0.16
Feb-12 98.46 99.81 100.45 101.62 -0.16
Mar-12 105.84 103.80 99.70 101.48 -0.37
Apr-12 105.61 106.92 106.88 108.69 -0.48
May-12 102.27 103.05 103.99 105.84 -0.50
Jun-12 91.66 91.90 98.93 100.40 -0.38
Jul-12 81.80 83.03 85.38 86.80 -0.27
Aug-12 91.44 91.32 84.90 86.56 -0.38
Sep-12 96.68 96.22 91.85 93.36 -0.28
Oct-12 91.87 93.05 95.93 97.50 -0.33
Nov-12 88.73 90.29 91.28 93.02 -0.37
Dec-12 86.75 87.57 86.17 88.22 -0.49
Jan-13 90.13 89.19 87.49 89.63 -0.57
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -7.3% -6.0% -10.8% -9.6%
NYMEX Unleaded Gasoline NYMEX Heating Oil
Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread
Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.)
2010 210.3 209.5 208.8 203.7 -0.4 210.7 210.2 210.3 220.1 -1.8
2011 286.8 284.4 280.2 268.9 2.1 296.5 294.6 292.1 298.6 -0.9
2012 296.8 295.4 291.2 274.6 5.0 301.8 301.7 301.9 307.0 -1.4
4Q 2011 261.2 262.1 266.3 255.3 2.9 295.3 296.0 298.5 303.5 -0.4
1Q 2012 287.0 287.8 280.2 283.9 -5.6 305.6 306.8 304.7 307.9 -4.9
2Q 2012 313.3 315.0 318.2 299.9 4.5 301.9 303.9 310.1 317.2 -0.6
3Q 2012 291.6 288.8 283.4 249.6 12.7 290.3 287.4 282.7 289.5 -0.4
4Q 2012 295.5 290.0 283.2 265.1 8.2 309.3 308.8 309.9 313.4 0.3
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 13.1% 10.6% 6.3% 3.8% 4.7% 4.3% 3.8% 3.3%
Jan-12 268.0 267.0 259.8 263.8 -0.4 291.8 291.0 290.2 295.6 -0.9
Feb-12 288.7 289.5 279.6 282.8 -0.6 306.3 306.2 304.6 306.6 0.7
Mar-12 304.2 307.0 301.0 305.1 -15.8 318.8 323.3 319.4 321.4 -14.6
Apr-12 339.0 339.6 334.3 319.8 1.4 316.8 317.8 322.7 330.4 -1.0
May-12 318.4 319.1 325.4 304.6 6.0 318.3 318.6 315.6 322.4 -0.5
Jun-12 282.5 286.3 295.0 275.3 6.1 270.6 275.2 291.9 298.8 -0.4
Jul-12 272.7 265.4 265.1 233.0 8.5 269.6 261.4 261.4 268.4 -0.2
Aug-12 291.5 291.3 282.1 246.0 11.0 284.2 287.0 281.4 287.7 -0.1
Sep-12 310.6 309.6 303.0 269.8 18.5 317.0 313.7 305.4 312.5 -0.8
Oct-12 334.2 318.9 299.6 271.1 13.6 316.9 314.4 314.6 318.7 0.2
Nov-12 276.2 274.9 280.6 263.3 8.2 306.8 309.0 314.0 314.6 1.8
Dec-12 276.1 276.1 269.2 261.0 2.8 304.1 303.0 301.2 306.8 -0.9
Jan-13 281.2 281.1 269.7 273.2 0.9 304.5 305.4 299.5 302.3 0.3
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.9% 5.3% 3.8% 3.6% 4.4% 5.0% 3.2% 2.2%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 11
A3: World Crude Oil Contract Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)
A4: North American Posted Crude Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)
Notes: 1. ANS is Delivered price on US West Coast. 2. Edmonton Light Sweet. 3. Hardisty Heavy. Posted prices are based on price at the end of each month. Sources:
Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada.
Notes: 1. Urals is Delivered price at Mediterranean. Contract prices are based on prices at the end of each month. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
Saudi U.A.E. Oman U.K. Norway Russia Venez. Kuwait Ecuador Mexico Nigeria Indon.
Arab Lgt Dubai Oman Brent Ekofisk Urals1 T.J. Light Blend Oriente Isthmus Bonny Lgt Minas
2009 72.41 73.86 74.05 73.63 74.44 72.58 72.99 73.22 67.42 72.88 75.44 77.94
2010 78.28 78.54 78.77 80.17 80.78 78.12 77.86 76.95 72.56 77.75 81.53 83.05
2011 107.94 106.21 106.63 111.11 112.67 108.85 105.01 105.65 100.89 105.40 113.53 114.59
3Q 2011 108.05 106.23 106.57 112.37 113.94 110.24 103.33 105.40 101.28 103.21 113.74 116.02
4Q 2011 108.32 106.50 107.18 109.32 110.73 108.65 107.11 106.87 103.48 109.00 112.67 114.07
1Q 2012 118.09 116.17 116.99 118.49 119.92 116.94 112.94 117.04 111.60 114.97 121.14 126.86
2Q 2012 107.31 106.48 106.56 108.39 109.26 106.90 103.57 106.13 101.78 105.47 110.81 118.40
3Q 2012 107.05 106.33 106.55 109.59 110.28 109.24 103.17 105.89 99.72 104.92 110.98 111.71
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.9% 0.1% 0.0% -2.5% -3.2% -0.9% -0.2% 0.5% -1.5% 1.7% -2.4% -3.7%
Oct-11 106.40 104.13 104.96 109.44 111.42 108.10 103.40 104.09 103.69 105.18 113.09 110.01
Nov-11 110.59 108.94 109.30 110.66 111.76 110.54 109.64 109.46 105.75 111.54 114.21 117.85
Dec-11 107.96 106.43 107.28 107.86 109.01 107.31 108.28 107.06 100.99 110.27 110.71 114.35
Jan-12 112.82 109.86 110.91 110.58 112.25 109.91 108.04 112.00 104.11 110.02 113.08 120.41
Feb-12 118.01 116.17 117.15 119.56 121.02 118.50 112.36 116.79 112.44 114.42 122.36 126.31
Mar-12 123.43 122.47 122.92 125.33 126.48 122.41 118.41 122.32 118.26 120.46 127.98 133.85
Apr-12 118.94 117.30 117.44 119.71 120.59 117.69 114.07 117.53 113.86 116.04 122.36 130.15
May-12 108.48 107.71 107.76 110.27 111.24 109.21 105.16 107.55 102.25 107.20 112.87 120.21
Jun-12 94.51 94.44 94.49 95.19 95.96 93.81 91.48 93.32 89.22 93.16 97.19 104.83
Jul-12 99.90 99.15 99.43 102.56 103.49 102.63 98.04 98.75 94.13 99.63 104.24 106.62
Aug-12 109.94 108.62 108.92 113.36 114.05 113.18 105.61 108.91 102.21 107.22 114.63 115.46
Sep-12 111.32 111.22 111.31 112.86 113.29 111.92 105.85 110.02 102.81 107.90 114.06 113.06
Oct-12 109.09 108.80 108.83 111.61 112.49 110.26 102.20 107.56 98.74 104.39 113.31 111.47
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 2.5% 4.5% 3.7% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% -1.2% 3.3% -4.8% -0.8% 0.2% 1.3%
United States Canada Light vs. Heavy
ANS1 Lost Hills Kern R. WTI WTS GCS Okla. Sw. Kans. Sw. Mich. So. Wyo. Sw. ELS2 HH3
2010 72.17 79.71 72.52 76.52 71.52 69.52 76.52 75.42 68.52 71.18 77.52 71.20
2011 102.36 112.50 103.21 92.00 87.38 85.42 92.42 91.69 84.42 87.64 95.04 83.74
2012 105.08 110.02 101.45 90.58 85.58 83.58 90.58 89.42 82.58 85.26 86.16 78.02
4Q 2011 106.40 115.77 106.80 92.75 87.75 85.75 92.75 92.92 84.75 89.61 97.26 89.45
1Q 2012 105.15 119.62 110.80 100.58 95.58 93.58 100.58 98.92 92.58 96.78 92.27 85.60
2Q 2012 114.98 106.23 99.33 88.33 83.33 81.33 88.33 87.33 80.33 81.85 83.98 75.71
3Q 2012 97.54 108.23 100.22 89.50 84.50 82.50 89.50 88.42 81.50 83.43 84.33 75.59
4Q 2012 102.65 106.00 95.43 83.92 78.92 76.92 83.92 83.00 75.92 78.96 84.05 75.18
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -3.5% -8.4% -10.6% -9.5% -10.1% -10.3% -9.5% -10.7% -10.4% -11.9% -13.6% -16.0%
Dec-11 108.88 107.95 100.80 95.25 90.25 88.25 95.25 94.25 87.25 93.08 97.79 93.14
Jan-12 109.20 111.75 102.80 96.00 91.00 89.00 96.00 95.00 88.00 93.81 96.69 92.13
Feb-12 101.59 126.80 118.20 106.25 101.25 99.25 106.25 105.25 98.25 103.52 94.41 87.50
Mar-12 104.66 120.30 111.40 99.50 94.50 92.50 99.50 96.50 91.50 93.02 85.71 77.16
Apr-12 113.64 118.65 112.75 101.50 96.50 94.50 101.50 100.50 93.50 94.43 83.98 74.04
May-12 116.90 105.60 98.55 87.25 82.25 80.25 87.25 86.25 79.25 81.11 87.28 79.08
Jun-12 114.39 94.45 86.70 76.25 71.25 69.25 76.25 75.25 68.25 70.01 80.66 74.01
Jul-12 104.57 103.85 96.75 86.75 81.75 79.75 86.75 85.50 78.75 80.38 75.90 70.04
Aug-12 91.21 111.80 103.55 93.00 88.00 86.00 93.00 92.00 85.00 86.72 86.51 74.24
Sep-12 96.84 109.05 100.35 88.75 83.75 81.75 88.75 87.75 80.75 83.19 90.58 82.50
Oct-12 102.63 102.75 92.55 81.25 76.25 74.25 81.25 80.25 73.25 76.36 91.99 83.97
Nov-12 104.92 107.35 96.95 85.50 80.50 78.50 85.50 84.50 77.50 80.41 85.80 78.30
Dec-12 100.41 107.90 96.80 85.00 80.00 78.00 85.00 84.25 77.00 80.11 74.37 63.27
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -7.8% 0.0% -4.0% -10.8% -11.4% -11.6% -10.8% -10.6% -11.7% -13.9% -24.0% -32.1%
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 12
A5: Crude Oil Quality Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel)
A6: Crude Oil Spot Prices and Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel)
Notes: 1. OPEC-Reference Basket is average price of seven crude streams: Algeria Saharan Blend, Dubai Fateh, Indonesia Minas, Mexico Isthmus, Nigeria Bonny
Light, Saudi Arabia Light and Venezuela Tia Juana Light. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
Notes: 1. Edmonton Light Sweet. 2. Hardisty Heavy. Based on contract prices at the end of each month. Sources: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report: Oil & Gas Jour-nal; Natural Resources Canada.
Light vs. Heavy Sweet vs. Sour
Arab Lt Arab Hv Diff. Isthmus Maya Diff. ELS1 HH2 Diff. GCS WTS Diff.
2009 72.41 70.79 1.62 72.88 67.26 5.61 70.03 65.55 4.47 62.37 64.02 -1.65
2010 78.28 75.91 2.37 77.75 70.09 7.66 75.26 69.13 6.14 69.52 71.52 -2.00
2011 107.94 103.95 3.99 105.40 98.77 6.63 96.69 85.19 11.50 85.42 87.38 -1.96
3Q 2011 108.05 103.89 4.17 103.21 99.06 4.15 95.90 82.71 13.19 76.67 78.50 -1.83
4Q 2011 108.32 105.89 2.42 109.00 103.31 5.69 95.04 87.41 7.63 85.75 87.75 -2.00
1Q 2012 118.09 116.59 1.49 114.97 108.80 6.17 92.14 85.47 6.66 93.58 95.58 -2.00
2Q 2012 107.31 105.39 1.92 105.47 99.46 6.01 83.13 74.95 8.18 81.33 83.33 -2.00
3Q 2012 107.05 105.49 1.56 104.92 97.59 7.32 84.76 75.98 8.78 82.50 84.50 -2.00
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.9% 1.5% 1.7% -1.5% -11.6% -8.1% 7.6% 7.6%
Oct-11 106.40 102.40 4.00 105.18 99.59 5.59 91.02 80.21 10.81 82.75 84.75 -2.00
Nov-11 110.59 108.67 1.92 111.54 105.99 5.55 98.51 90.98 7.53 86.25 88.25 -2.00
Dec-11 107.96 106.61 1.35 110.27 104.34 5.93 95.56 91.01 4.55 88.25 90.25 -2.00
Jan-12 112.82 111.73 1.09 110.02 105.91 4.11 95.33 90.84 4.49 89.00 91.00 -2.00
Feb-12 118.01 116.21 1.80 114.42 108.59 5.83 94.71 87.78 6.93 99.25 101.25 -2.00
Mar-12 123.43 121.84 1.59 120.46 111.90 8.56 86.27 77.66 8.61 92.50 94.50 -2.00
Apr-12 118.94 116.62 2.32 116.04 108.63 7.41 84.63 74.62 10.02 94.50 96.50 -2.00
May-12 108.48 106.89 1.59 107.20 101.32 5.88 86.39 78.27 8.12 80.25 82.25 -2.00
Jun-12 94.51 92.67 1.84 93.16 88.42 4.74 78.44 71.97 6.47 69.25 71.25 -2.00
Jul-12 99.90 98.24 1.66 99.63 92.95 6.68 74.84 69.07 5.77 79.75 81.75 -2.00
Aug-12 109.94 108.47 1.47 107.22 99.00 8.22 87.17 74.80 12.37 86.00 88.00 -2.00
Sep-12 111.32 109.76 1.56 107.90 100.83 7.07 92.55 84.30 8.25 81.75 83.75 -2.00
Oct-12 109.09 106.91 2.18 104.39 96.94 7.45 93.22 85.10 8.12 74.25 76.25 -2.00
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 2.5% 4.4% -0.8% -2.7% 2.4% 6.1% -10.3% -10.0%
Spot Prices Differentials
WTI Brent Dubai Urals Basket1 WTI-Brent WTI-Dubai WTI-Urals WTI-Basket
2010 79.48 79.51 78.13 78.17 75.98 -2.31 -0.93 -0.97 1.22
2011 95.04 111.21 106.33 109.61 105.85 -17.10 -12.22 -15.50 -11.74
2012 94.12 111.68 109.02 110.85 109.19 -16.82 -14.16 -15.99 -14.33
4Q 2011 93.99 109.35 106.51 109.21 107.85 -19.28 -16.44 -19.14 -17.78
1Q 2012 102.99 118.55 116.49 117.50 111.68 -18.04 -15.98 -16.99 -11.17
2Q 2012 93.30 108.31 106.15 106.87 111.32 -8.46 -6.30 -7.02 -11.48
3Q 2012 92.16 109.52 106.12 109.33 106.58 -19.55 -16.15 -19.36 -16.61
4Q 2012 88.17 110.11 107.44 109.46 107.26 -20.99 -18.32 -20.34 -18.14
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -6.2% 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% -0.6%
Dec-11 98.56 107.80 106.53 107.89 109.72 -10.58 -9.31 -10.67 -12.50
Jan-12 100.28 110.52 109.91 109.68 107.34 -12.06 -11.45 -11.22 -8.88
Feb-12 102.22 119.53 116.11 119.32 110.50 -13.69 -10.27 -13.48 -4.66
Mar-12 106.15 125.28 122.53 123.24 116.96 -19.67 -16.92 -17.63 -11.35
Apr-12 103.29 119.57 117.28 117.46 121.60 -17.30 -15.01 -15.19 -19.33
May-12 94.68 110.25 107.32 109.50 118.39 -18.59 -15.66 -17.84 -26.73
Jun-12 82.35 94.80 94.33 93.25 93.98 -13.00 -12.53 -11.45 -12.18
Jul-12 87.90 102.57 99.19 102.83 99.55 -11.13 -7.75 -11.39 -8.11
Aug-12 94.12 113.36 108.62 113.57 109.52 -16.68 -11.94 -16.89 -12.84
Sep-12 94.51 112.95 111.13 111.81 110.67 -21.08 -19.26 -19.94 -18.80
Oct-12 89.52 111.60 108.79 110.68 108.36 -22.87 -20.06 -21.95 -19.63
Nov-12 86.60 109.16 107.18 108.65 106.86 -22.41 -20.43 -21.90 -20.11
Dec-12 87.53 109.12 106.67 108.52 106.55 -18.99 -16.54 -18.39 -16.42
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -11.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.6% -2.9%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 13
A7: World Petroleum Product Spot Prices ($US per barrel)
A8: Product Spot Prices in Selected American Cities (¢US per gallon)
Notes: 1. Reformulated regular unleaded gasoline. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status
Report.
Notes: 1. Regular unleaded gasoline. 2. High Sulfur (3.0%) Residual Fuel Oil. 3. High Sulfur (3.5%) Residual Fuel Oil. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
NY Harbor, Barges Rotterdam, Barges Singapore, Cargoes
Gasoline1 No. 2 H.O. Resid.2 Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3 Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3
2010 87.01 69.70 70.63 87.32 89.75 67.99 88.48 90.39 72.88
2011 116.66 95.72 96.84 116.42 125.02 94.51 119.81 126.25 100.65
2012 120.03 99.32 113.31 122.89 128.03 97.65 123.44 128.08 103.94
4Q 2011 108.70 98.28 98.57 110.67 127.09 96.93 116.13 125.72 104.26
1Q 2012 125.75 108.03 109.28 125.59 133.17 105.93 130.80 134.41 113.89
2Q 2012 121.35 97.87 114.72 122.98 124.41 96.95 120.18 123.82 103.24
3Q 2012 123.96 97.29 114.72 125.99 126.55 96.50 121.96 127.28 101.73
4Q 2012 109.13 94.23 114.72 117.03 127.78 91.20 120.96 126.89 97.06
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.4% -4.1% 16.4% 5.7% 0.5% -5.9% 4.2% 0.9% -6.9%
Dec-11 106.58 95.38 96.76 108.90 124.43 94.84 113.90 115.42 103.27
Jan-12 116.29 102.88 102.63 115.85 127.81 102.93 124.01 125.07 111.69
Feb-12 125.73 109.26 109.94 125.47 134.30 105.98 130.86 126.76 113.75
Mar-12 134.38 111.58 114.72 134.99 137.21 108.74 136.60 138.06 115.93
Apr-12 134.43 108.55 114.72 136.35 134.62 106.00 135.06 135.04 113.53
May-12 120.41 98.56 114.72 121.81 125.51 97.89 121.61 124.95 104.45
Jun-12 109.88 86.97 114.72 110.96 112.94 86.80 104.50 111.95 92.18
Jul-12 115.47 91.58 114.72 117.06 119.09 90.83 113.35 119.27 96.09
Aug-12 128.59 99.54 114.72 128.12 128.98 98.95 127.34 130.61 103.99
Sep-12 127.73 100.88 114.72 133.45 132.06 100.03 125.78 132.61 105.56
Oct-12 116.49 96.16 114.72 122.63 132.84 94.63 124.12 129.81 100.67
Nov-12 105.93 92.86 114.72 114.48 125.66 90.14 119.69 125.68 95.36
Dec-12 103.86 93.39 114.72 113.20 124.10 88.27 118.83 124.95 94.87
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -2.6% -2.1% 18.6% 3.9% -0.3% -6.9% 4.3% 8.3% -8.1%
NY Harbor US Gulf Los Angeles
Gasoline1 No. 2 H.O. Distill. Gasoline1 Jet Fuel Distill. Gasoline1 Distill.
2010 209.23 212.48 219.41 205.11 214.61 215.59 220.97 220.41
2011 279.50 294.63 301.44 274.58 299.61 296.95 289.49 304.88
2012 293.97 302.38 311.33 281.37 305.65 305.29 303.06 310.61
4Q 2011 267.83 296.60 301.33 259.07 296.17 296.13 279.60 306.37
1Q 2012 301.10 315.57 320.17 298.17 318.33 316.07 320.17 323.80
2Q 2012 289.50 289.40 297.97 279.90 295.93 294.37 303.67 297.10
3Q 2012 301.30 299.73 310.97 288.23 307.97 306.93 303.67 312.60
4Q 2012 283.97 304.80 316.20 259.17 300.37 303.80 284.73 308.93
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.0% 2.8% 4.9% 0.0% 1.4% 2.6% 1.8% 0.8%
Dec-11 263.40 289.10 293.70 254.40 287.30 287.80 270.20 291.00
Jan-12 282.20 305.40 308.00 277.70 308.70 303.40 292.00 308.80
Feb-12 304.40 319.60 322.30 299.90 320.70 317.80 330.20 324.20
Mar-12 316.70 321.70 330.20 316.90 325.60 327.00 338.30 338.40
Apr-12 320.60 315.00 324.20 310.10 322.60 321.70 325.00 325.20
May-12 287.70 291.30 298.70 278.00 297.40 294.70 323.40 300.70
Jun-12 260.20 261.90 271.00 251.60 267.80 266.70 262.60 265.40
Jul-12 274.70 281.30 292.10 264.50 289.20 287.90 281.90 285.40
Aug-12 302.20 304.50 317.90 296.80 315.60 314.30 312.90 322.50
Sep-12 327.00 313.40 322.90 303.40 319.10 318.60 316.20 329.90
Oct-12 297.50 314.00 323.60 277.80 311.10 315.70 313.50 322.60
Nov-12 281.70 300.90 318.00 252.20 296.00 299.70 279.20 307.10
Dec-12 272.70 299.50 307.00 247.50 294.00 296.00 261.50 297.10
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.5% 3.6% 4.5% -2.7% 2.3% 2.8% -3.2% 2.1%
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 14
B1: World Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Totals for OECD and non-OECD supply include net refining gains; specific regions/groupings within each do not. 2. OPEC demand is an estimate based on
historical annual data. 3. Balance for World equals global stockbuilds (+) and stockdraws (-) for crude oil and petroleum products and miscellaneous gains and loss-
es. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports and stock changes in the short-term, and net-imports in the longer term. Supply includes
crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products.
Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
OECD Non-OECD OPEC World
N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total1 Asia Non-Asia FSU Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total2 Total3
Demand
2008 24.2 15.4 8.1 47.6 16.3 11.5 4.2 32.0 4.3 2.6 7.0 86.7
2009 23.7 14.7 8.0 46.3 17.0 10.8 4.0 31.8 4.5 2.7 7.3 85.4
2010 24.1 14.7 8.1 46.9 18.5 11.0 4.2 33.7 4.7 2.8 7.5 88.0
2011 24.1 14.3 8.1 46.5 18.9 11.1 4.4 34.4 4.9 2.9 7.9 88.9
2012 23.8 13.8 8.5 46.1 19.6 11.4 4.6 35.6 5.1 3.0 8.2 89.8
4Q 2010 23.8 14.9 8.1 46.8 19.1 11.9 4.4 35.4 4.7 2.8 7.5 89.8
1Q 2011 24.2 14.3 8.6 47.1 19.1 10.4 4.2 33.7 4.9 2.9 7.9 88.7
2Q 2011 23.8 14.2 7.4 45.3 19.1 11.1 4.4 34.6 4.9 2.9 7.9 87.6
3Q 2011 24.2 14.7 8.0 46.9 18.5 11.6 4.6 34.7 4.9 2.9 7.9 89.4
4Q 2011 24.0 14.1 8.6 46.7 19.3 11.1 4.6 35.0 4.9 2.9 7.9 89.7
1Q 2012 23.5 13.7 9.1 46.3 19.5 10.7 4.5 34.7 5.1 3.0 8.2 89.1
2Q 2012 23.8 13.8 8.0 45.6 19.3 11.4 4.5 35.2 5.1 3.0 8.2 89.0
3Q 2012 23.9 13.8 8.2 45.9 19.2 11.9 4.7 35.8 5.1 3.0 8.2 90.0
4Q 2012 24.1 13.9 8.6 46.5 20.3 11.6 4.7 36.6 5.1 3.0 8.2 91.2
Supply
2008 13.3 4.8 0.6 19.9 7.5 8.1 12.8 29.2 24.5 10.4 35.6 86.7
2009 13.6 4.5 0.6 20.0 7.4 8.3 13.3 29.8 23.0 10.5 34.1 85.4
2010 14.1 4.1 0.7 20.1 7.8 8.5 13.5 30.7 23.3 10.7 34.6 87.3
2011 14.6 3.8 0.6 20.1 7.7 8.5 13.6 30.7 25.5 9.5 35.7 88.4
2012 15.8 3.5 0.6 21.0 7.7 8.1 13.7 30.4 26.3 10.5 37.6 90.9
4Q 2010 14.4 4.1 0.6 20.3 7.9 8.5 13.7 31.0 23.9 10.8 35.2 88.1
1Q 2011 14.3 4.0 0.6 20.1 7.9 8.7 13.6 31.1 24.8 10.5 35.8 88.4
2Q 2011 14.3 3.7 0.6 19.8 7.7 8.6 13.6 30.8 25.4 9.4 35.2 87.6
3Q 2011 14.5 3.5 0.6 19.8 7.6 8.6 13.5 30.6 26.0 9.1 35.7 88.4
4Q 2011 15.3 3.7 0.6 20.8 7.6 8.5 13.6 30.6 26.1 9.3 36.1 89.4
1Q 2012 15.6 3.8 0.5 21.1 7.8 8.2 13.7 30.6 26.4 10.3 37.4 90.8
2Q 2012 15.5 3.6 0.5 20.9 7.6 8.0 13.6 30.1 26.6 10.5 37.9 90.7
3Q 2012 15.7 3.1 0.6 20.6 7.7 8.0 13.6 30.3 26.3 10.7 37.8 90.8
4Q 2012 16.4 3.3 0.6 21.6 7.8 8.1 13.8 30.6 26.1 10.4 37.3 91.4
Balance
2008 -10.9 -10.6 -7.5 -27.7 -8.8 -3.4 8.6 -2.8 20.2 7.9 28.7 0.0
2009 -10.1 -10.2 -7.4 -26.3 -9.6 -2.5 9.3 -2.0 18.5 7.8 26.8 0.0
2010 -10.0 -10.6 -7.4 -26.8 -10.7 -2.5 9.3 -3.0 18.5 8.0 27.1 -0.7
2011 -9.5 -10.5 -7.5 -26.4 -11.2 -2.6 9.2 -3.7 20.6 6.7 27.8 -0.5
2012 -8.0 -10.3 -7.9 -25.1 -11.9 -3.3 9.1 -5.2 21.2 7.5 29.4 1.1
4Q 2010 -9.4 -10.8 -7.5 -26.5 -11.2 -3.4 9.3 -4.3 19.2 8.0 27.6 -1.7
1Q 2011 -9.9 -10.3 -8.0 -27.0 -11.2 -1.7 9.4 -2.7 19.9 7.6 27.9 -0.3
2Q 2011 -9.5 -10.5 -6.8 -25.5 -11.4 -2.5 9.2 -3.8 20.5 6.5 27.4 0.0
3Q 2011 -9.7 -11.2 -7.4 -27.1 -10.9 -3.0 8.9 -4.1 21.1 6.2 27.9 -1.0
4Q 2011 -8.7 -10.4 -8.0 -25.9 -11.7 -2.6 9.0 -4.4 21.2 6.5 28.3 -0.3
1Q 2012 -7.9 -9.9 -8.6 -25.2 -11.7 -2.5 9.2 -4.1 21.2 7.3 29.2 1.7
2Q 2012 -8.3 -10.2 -7.5 -24.7 -11.7 -3.4 9.1 -5.1 21.5 7.5 29.7 1.7
3Q 2012 -8.2 -10.7 -7.6 -25.3 -11.5 -3.9 8.9 -5.6 21.2 7.7 29.6 0.8
4Q 2012 -7.7 -10.6 -8.0 -24.9 -12.5 -3.5 9.1 -6.0 21.0 7.4 29.1 0.2
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 15
B2: World Petroleum Production (million barrels per day)
B3: OECD Commercial Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)
Notes: 1. Production includes crude oil, condensates and NGLs. 2. Reserve-Production ratio is based on latest month production and British Petroleum reserve
estimates. Sources: IEA Oil Market Report and BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
Notes: 1. Product includes only finished petroleum products. 2. Total stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All
stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
OECD Non-OECD OPEC World
N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total Asia Non-Asia FSU Total P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1
2010 14.07 4.13 0.61 18.82 7.80 8.46 13.55 29.81 23.26 10.73 34.61 83.24
2011 14.59 3.77 0.57 18.93 7.68 8.62 13.58 29.88 25.54 9.55 35.65 84.46
2012 15.80 3.45 0.58 19.83 7.72 8.09 13.70 29.50 26.29 10.52 37.56 86.89
4Q 2011 15.19 3.74 0.54 19.46 7.58 8.50 13.59 29.67 26.12 9.35 36.11 85.24
1Q 2012 15.58 3.80 0.52 19.90 7.79 8.27 13.73 29.79 26.35 10.34 37.41 87.10
2Q 2012 15.46 3.60 0.54 19.60 7.60 8.03 13.62 29.24 26.56 10.54 37.85 86.69
3Q 2012 15.65 3.14 0.61 19.41 7.71 7.99 13.60 29.30 26.33 10.67 37.76 86.47
4Q 2012 16.44 3.28 0.65 20.36 7.77 8.10 13.83 29.70 26.08 10.42 37.27 87.33
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 8.2% -12.3% 20.4% 4.6% 2.5% -4.7% 1.8% 0.1% -0.1% 11.4% 3.2% 2.5%
Dec-11 15.04 3.85 0.60 19.49 7.76 8.50 13.68 29.95 26.21 9.81 36.72 86.16
Jan-12 15.36 3.89 0.50 19.75 7.74 8.52 13.73 29.99 26.30 10.20 37.13 86.87
Feb-12 15.49 3.91 0.49 19.89 7.77 8.12 13.76 29.66 26.37 10.30 37.41 86.96
Mar-12 15.42 3.69 0.48 19.59 7.79 8.03 13.75 29.57 26.47 10.50 37.70 86.86
Apr-12 15.41 3.64 0.52 19.56 7.67 8.02 13.71 29.40 26.82 10.49 38.03 86.99
May-12 15.33 3.51 0.53 19.37 7.74 8.04 13.75 29.52 26.66 10.53 38.01 86.90
Jun-12 15.52 3.45 0.52 19.50 7.56 8.01 13.65 29.22 26.46 10.57 37.73 86.45
Jul-12 15.64 3.52 0.68 19.84 7.64 7.91 13.64 29.20 26.54 10.74 37.90 86.94
Aug-12 15.45 3.21 0.66 19.32 7.70 8.02 13.49 29.21 26.41 10.77 37.99 86.52
Sep-12 15.62 2.75 0.58 18.95 7.86 8.00 13.54 29.40 26.20 10.53 37.50 85.85
Oct-12 16.25 3.14 0.67 20.06 7.75 8.07 13.82 29.64 26.51 10.34 37.62 87.32
Nov-12 16.43 3.25 0.63 20.31 7.79 8.06 13.90 29.75 26.12 10.34 37.23 87.29
Dec-12 16.64 3.44 0.64 20.72 7.77 8.14 13.78 29.70 25.62 10.59 36.97 87.39
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 10.6% -10.6% 6.7% 6.3% 0.1% -4.2% 0.7% -0.8% -2.3% 8.0% 0.7% 1.4%
R/P Ratio2 35.8 11.1 17.1 31.1 11.7 22.5 25.2 20.9 83.8 102.7 87.5 51.8
North America Europe Asia-Pacific OECD
Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product1 Total2
2009 470 695 1,309 333 574 972 161 161 383 963 1,431 2,664
2010 471 706 1,327 323 554 947 158 163 390 952 1,422 2,664
2011 464 698 1,313 286 546 898 156 164 390 906 1,408 2,601
3Q 2011 467 707 1,342 308 539 911 157 181 412 932 1,427 2,665
4Q 2011 464 698 1,313 286 546 898 156 164 390 906 1,408 2,601
1Q 2012 501 666 1,331 310 570 951 155 152 377 966 1,388 2,659
2Q 2012 523 668 1,359 316 539 927 170 167 413 1,010 1,374 2,699
3Q 2012 510 694 1,381 309 551 929 172 185 429 991 1,430 2,738
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 9.3% -1.8% 2.9% 0.3% 2.2% 1.9% 9.4% 2.4% 4.2% 6.3% 0.2% 2.8%
Nov-11 476 698 1,336 303 537 909 156 179 409 935 1,414 2,654
Dec-11 464 698 1,313 286 546 898 156 164 390 906 1,408 2,601
Jan-12 479 705 1,340 291 561 921 154 164 391 924 1,430 2,652
Feb-12 478 687 1,323 301 548 919 162 153 386 941 1,388 2,629
Mar-12 501 666 1,331 310 570 951 155 152 377 966 1,388 2,659
Apr-12 510 657 1,334 312 561 945 165 162 403 988 1,379 2,681
May-12 523 659 1,348 311 547 928 172 169 417 1,007 1,375 2,693
Jun-12 523 668 1,359 316 539 927 170 167 413 1,010 1,374 2,699
Jul-12 510 689 1,368 312 550 933 177 173 425 1,000 1,412 2,726
Aug-12 502 691 1,361 321 558 949 166 182 420 989 1,431 2,731
Sep-12 510 694 1,381 309 551 929 172 185 429 991 1,430 2,738
Oct-12 515 684 1,369 306 534 907 175 188 436 995 1,405 2,712
Nov-12 511 681 1,360 311 533 910 172 178 422 993 1,393 2,693
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 7.4% -2.5% 1.8% 2.7% -0.6% 0.1% 9.8% -0.2% 3.4% 6.2% -1.5% 1.5%
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 16
B4: OPEC Crude Oil Production and Targets (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Does not include NGLs; OPEC production targets apply to crude oil only. 2. Iraq does not have an official OPEC target. 3. OPEC-10 production targets. 4. As
of latest month. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
B5: OECD Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent) - Refining Margins ($US/barrel)
Notes: 1. Based on dated Brent being processed in average US Gulf cracking refinery. 2. Based on dated Brent in average Rotterdam cracking refinery. 3. Based on
spot Dubai in average Singapore hydroskimming refinery. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
Non-Persian Gulf OPEC-11 OPEC-11
Arabia Iran UAE Kuwait Qatar Venez. Nigeria Libya Algeria Angola Ecuador Total1 Target Iraq2
2010 8.24 3.70 2.31 2.30 0.74 2.53 2.08 1.55 1.21 1.73 0.47 26.86 27.75 2.36
2011 9.34 3.62 2.50 2.54 0.74 2.50 2.18 0.46 1.18 1.66 0.50 27.21 27.75 2.67
2012 9.87 3.00 2.65 2.74 0.74 2.50 2.10 1.39 1.17 1.75 0.50 28.41 27.75 2.95
4Q 2011 9.67 3.51 2.54 2.73 0.74 2.40 2.06 0.55 1.16 1.72 0.49 27.56 24.85 2.68
1Q 2012 9.95 3.37 2.61 2.72 0.75 2.51 2.06 1.30 1.16 1.77 0.48 28.67 30.00 2.69
2Q 2012 10.07 3.14 2.65 2.75 0.74 2.50 2.17 1.40 1.16 1.76 0.48 28.81 30.00 2.92
3Q 2012 9.87 2.81 2.69 2.74 0.75 2.52 2.17 1.43 1.18 1.72 0.50 28.38 30.00 3.07
4Q 2012 9.65 2.71 2.67 2.77 0.73 2.48 1.99 1.42 1.16 1.74 0.50 27.82 30.00 3.12
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.2% -22.8% 5.1% 1.5% -1.4% 3.3% -3.4% 158.2% 0.0% 1.2% 2.0% 0.9% 16.4%
Dec-11 9.85 3.45 2.58 2.60 0.82 2.50 2.06 0.75 1.29 1.75 0.48 28.13 24.85 2.69
Jan-12 9.85 3.30 2.58 2.75 0.82 2.47 2.04 1.15 1.20 1.70 0.48 28.34 30.00 2.65
Feb-12 10.00 3.35 2.59 2.70 0.75 2.46 2.10 1.29 1.14 1.76 0.48 28.61 30.00 2.62
Mar-12 10.00 3.30 2.65 2.72 0.75 2.55 2.05 1.45 1.14 1.75 0.48 28.84 30.00 2.79
Apr-12 10.10 3.30 2.67 2.74 0.75 2.49 2.15 1.40 1.14 1.75 0.48 28.97 30.00 2.92
May-12 10.00 3.30 2.67 2.74 0.75 2.49 2.18 1.42 1.14 1.80 0.48 28.97 30.00 2.89
Jun-12 10.10 3.00 2.66 2.76 0.73 2.51 2.20 1.38 1.16 1.71 0.48 28.69 30.00 2.91
Jul-12 10.00 2.90 2.68 2.76 0.75 2.56 2.16 1.45 1.19 1.63 0.48 28.55 30.00 3.02
Aug-12 9.90 2.85 2.69 2.76 0.75 2.51 2.30 1.38 1.18 1.79 0.50 28.61 30.00 3.07
Sep-12 9.80 2.63 2.69 2.78 0.75 2.48 2.06 1.44 1.17 1.75 0.50 28.04 30.00 3.14
Oct-12 9.95 2.72 2.67 2.78 0.73 2.48 1.98 1.42 1.12 1.73 0.51 28.09 30.00 3.20
Nov-12 9.65 2.70 2.65 2.74 0.73 2.47 1.88 1.45 1.18 1.75 0.50 27.69 30.00 3.21
Dec-12 9.36 2.70 2.68 2.78 0.74 2.50 2.10 1.40 1.18 1.73 0.50 27.67 30.00 2.97
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -5.0% -21.7% 3.9% 6.9% -9.8% 0.0% 1.9% 86.7% -8.5% -1.1% 4.2% -1.6% 10.4%
Quotas3 8.05 3.34 2.22 2.22 0.73 1.99 1.67 1.47 1.20 1.52 0.43 30.00
Over/Under4 16.3% -19.2% 20.7% 25.2% 1.4% 25.6% 25.7% -4.8% -1.7% 13.8% 16.3% -7.8%
Persian Gulf
North America Europe Asia-Pacific OECD
Input Util. Margin1 Input Util. Margin2 Input Util. Margin3 Input Util.
2009 17.3 82.1 -1.54 12.2 78.9 1.30 6.4 71.1 -3.23 35.9 78.8
2010 17.7 84.2 -2.10 12.4 81.3 2.28 6.6 73.5 -2.41 36.6 81.1
2011 17.8 84.6 -4.17 12.1 79.7 0.62 6.5 73.0 -1.38 36.4 80.7
3Q 2011 18.4 87.9 -3.17 12.4 81.3 0.97 6.4 72.1 -0.6 37.3 82.6
4Q 2011 17.9 85.2 -5.38 12.1 79.4 0.62 6.5 73.2 -1.1 36.5 80.9
1Q 2012 17.7 84.3 -1.46 12.0 78.5 1.72 6.9 77.9 -1.7 36.6 81.1
2Q 2012 18.2 86.7 3.90 11.9 78.1 6.30 6.6 73.6 -0.8 36.6 81.2
3Q 2012 18.4 87.5 5.38 12.6 82.8 9.37 6.8 75.7 1.5 37.7 83.6
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.4% -269.4% 1.8% 862.7% 5.0% -340.7% 1.2%
Nov-11 18.0 86.0 -6.00 12.1 79.6 0.55 6.6 73.6 -1.6 36.7 81.4
Dec-11 18.0 85.6 -6.30 12.3 80.6 -0.21 6.8 75.8 -2.1 37.0 82.0
Jan-12 17.5 83.4 -1.86 12.1 79.7 2.69 6.9 76.9 0.8 36.5 80.8
Feb-12 18.0 85.9 -1.86 12.2 79.8 0.80 7.1 79.9 -1.3 37.3 82.6
Mar-12 17.6 83.7 -0.65 11.6 76.2 1.68 6.9 77.1 -4.7 36.0 79.8
Apr-12 17.6 84.1 3.49 11.8 77.5 4.88 6.8 75.7 -2.6 36.2 80.2
May-12 18.2 86.8 3.42 11.9 77.8 5.48 6.6 73.6 -0.3 36.6 81.2
Jun-12 18.7 89.1 4.78 12.0 79.0 8.53 6.4 71.4 0.5 37.1 82.2
Jul-12 18.8 89.7 3.71 12.7 83.4 7.97 6.8 75.7 1.4 38.3 84.8
Aug-12 18.4 87.8 5.68 12.7 83.6 7.83 6.8 76.7 1.8 38.0 84.2
Sep-12 17.8 85.1 6.74 12.4 81.3 12.31 6.7 74.7 1.2 36.9 81.7
Oct-12 17.9 85.1 3.31 11.9 77.8 9.03 6.7 74.8 0.5 36.4 80.6
Nov-12 18.2 86.6 -2.06 12.1 79.5 5.68 6.6 74.5 -2.7 36.9 81.8
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.7% -65.7% -0.2% 933% 1.2% 70.0% 0.5%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 17
C1: US Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Does not balance because of unaccounted for crude oil. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports/transfers and stock chang-
es in the short-term, and net-imports/transfers in the longer term. 2. As of most recent month. Supply includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-
conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
United States1 East Mid-West
Supply Demand Net-Imp. Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance
2009 8.91 18.64 9.69 0.16 0.11 5.62 -5.51 1.73 4.71 -2.97
2010 9.48 19.15 9.46 0.05 0.12 5.61 -5.48 2.01 4.86 -2.84
2011 9.89 18.84 8.43 -0.12 0.14 5.40 -5.26 2.26 4.81 -2.56
3Q 2011 9.92 18.83 8.29 -0.29 0.14 5.21 -5.07 2.26 4.92 -2.66
4Q 2011 10.26 18.68 7.76 -0.32 0.14 5.40 -5.25 2.44 4.89 -2.45
1Q 2012 10.54 18.39 7.71 0.27 0.14 5.38 -5.24 2.48 4.63 -2.15
2Q 2012 10.64 18.64 7.83 0.33 0.14 5.28 -5.14 2.57 4.82 -2.24
3Q 2012 10.68 18.67 7.60 0.11 0.15 5.08 -4.93 2.57 4.88 -2.31
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 7.7% -0.9% -8.3% 7.8% -2.5% 13.9% -0.7%
Nov-11 10.29 18.73 7.98 0.07 0.15 5.52 -5.37 2.46 4.88 -2.42
Dec-11 10.37 18.74 7.41 -0.65 0.15 5.40 -5.25 2.48 4.80 -2.33
Jan-12 10.49 18.27 8.11 0.64 0.14 5.35 -5.21 2.48 4.62 -2.13
Feb-12 10.55 18.73 7.48 -0.23 0.14 5.43 -5.29 2.51 4.74 -2.24
Mar-12 10.58 18.17 7.55 0.41 0.15 5.35 -5.21 2.46 4.53 -2.07
Apr-12 10.48 18.28 7.37 -0.02 0.14 5.26 -5.12 2.52 4.65 -2.13
May-12 10.75 18.71 7.94 0.52 0.14 5.30 -5.16 2.61 4.90 -2.30
Jun-12 10.70 18.92 8.18 0.49 0.15 5.27 -5.13 2.59 4.90 -2.31
Jul-12 10.58 18.60 7.54 0.03 0.14 5.10 -4.95 2.49 4.86 -2.38
Aug-12 10.57 19.23 7.88 -0.27 0.15 5.20 -5.05 2.63 5.03 -2.40
Sep-12 10.90 18.17 7.38 0.58 0.14 4.94 -4.80 2.60 4.75 -2.15
Oct-12 11.22 18.72 6.83 -0.28 0.15 4.76 -4.61 2.66 5.03 -2.37
Nov-12 11.46 18.60 6.70 -0.04 0.14 5.06 -4.91 2.65 4.78 -2.13
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 11.3% -0.7% -16.1% -4.0% -8.4% 7.7% -1.9%
% of Total2 100.0% 100.0% 1.3% 27.2% 23.1% 25.7%
South-Central North-West West Finished Petroleum Products
Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance
2009 4.85 4.82 0.03 0.68 0.65 0.03 1.54 2.83 -1.30
2010 5.13 5.14 0.00 0.74 0.65 0.09 1.47 2.90 -1.43
2011 5.29 5.12 0.17 0.79 0.67 0.12 1.42 2.83 -1.41
3Q 2011 5.36 5.08 0.27 0.80 0.70 0.10 1.37 2.92 -1.55
4Q 2011 5.40 4.97 0.43 0.83 0.66 0.17 1.44 2.76 -1.32
1Q 2012 5.63 5.04 0.58 0.86 0.70 0.17 1.43 2.65 -1.22
2Q 2012 5.72 5.05 0.67 0.85 0.69 0.16 1.36 2.80 -1.45
3Q 2012 5.84 5.12 0.72 0.86 0.72 0.14 1.26 2.86 -1.60
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 9.1% 0.7% 7.6% 3.0% -8.0% -2.1%
Nov-11 5.41 4.88 0.53 0.83 0.66 0.17 1.44 2.80 -1.36
Dec-11 5.42 5.14 0.29 0.84 0.68 0.16 1.47 2.71 -1.24
Jan-12 5.55 4.96 0.59 0.86 0.68 0.18 1.46 2.66 -1.20
Feb-12 5.62 5.19 0.44 0.87 0.71 0.16 1.41 2.66 -1.25
Mar-12 5.70 4.98 0.72 0.87 0.70 0.17 1.40 2.61 -1.21
Apr-12 5.63 5.00 0.63 0.84 0.67 0.17 1.36 2.71 -1.35
May-12 5.76 5.05 0.72 0.86 0.67 0.19 1.37 2.78 -1.41
Jun-12 5.78 5.10 0.67 0.84 0.71 0.13 1.35 2.92 -1.58
Jul-12 5.86 5.02 0.84 0.84 0.76 0.08 1.25 2.86 -1.61
Aug-12 5.71 5.27 0.44 0.85 0.76 0.09 1.22 2.96 -1.74
Sep-12 5.96 5.06 0.90 0.88 0.64 0.23 1.32 2.77 -1.45
Oct-12 6.15 5.48 0.67 0.86 0.67 0.19 1.40 2.79 -1.39
Nov-12 6.36 5.42 0.95 0.87 0.64 0.23 1.44 2.71 -1.28
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 17.6% 10.9% 4.3% -2.9% -0.2% -3.2%
% of Total2 55.5% 29.1% 7.6% 3.4% 12.6% 14.6%
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 18
C2: US Petroleum Demand by Product (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons.
Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
C3: US Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)
Notes: 1. Petroleum stocks include crude oil, finished products, NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. 2. Includes Strategic
Petroleum Reserves. 3. Total includes other finished petroleum products. All stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply
Monthly.
Finished Petroleum Products NGLs Petroleum
Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2
2009 8.98 1.40 3.62 0.50 16.62 2.15 18.73
2010 9.03 1.43 3.81 0.54 16.95 2.18 19.15
2011 8.74 1.43 3.85 0.48 16.57 2.26 18.84
3Q 2011 8.87 1.48 3.78 0.37 16.77 2.06 18.83
4Q 2011 8.60 1.38 3.93 0.44 16.34 2.37 18.68
1Q 2012 8.48 1.35 3.81 0.41 15.88 2.41 18.39
2Q 2012 8.95 1.44 3.71 0.36 16.49 2.15 18.64
3Q 2012 8.84 1.44 3.66 0.36 16.39 2.25 18.67
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.3% -2.7% -3.2% -3.9% -2.2% 8.8% -0.9%
Nov-11 8.53 1.43 4.06 0.40 16.41 2.31 18.73
Dec-11 8.66 1.35 3.78 0.52 16.13 2.60 18.74
Jan-12 8.19 1.31 3.81 0.42 15.64 2.57 18.27
Feb-12 8.62 1.35 3.95 0.39 16.14 2.45 18.73
Mar-12 8.63 1.38 3.67 0.42 15.88 2.23 18.17
Apr-12 8.82 1.36 3.66 0.41 16.15 2.13 18.28
May-12 9.00 1.41 3.75 0.29 16.54 2.22 18.71
Jun-12 9.04 1.55 3.73 0.37 16.80 2.09 18.92
Jul-12 8.82 1.47 3.55 0.42 16.38 2.19 18.60
Aug-12 9.14 1.47 3.74 0.35 16.88 2.31 19.23
Sep-12 8.58 1.38 3.68 0.30 15.93 2.24 18.17
Oct-12 8.70 1.34 3.84 0.28 16.08 2.47 18.72
Nov-12 8.54 1.41 3.90 0.29 16.04 2.41 18.60
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.1% -1.4% -3.8% -25.6% -2.2% 4.2% -0.7%
Petroleum Stocks1 Crude Oil Finished Products
East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West U.S. Total2 Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total3
2009 192 249 1,164 31 139 1,776 1,052 86 43 165 38 375
2010 173 262 1,182 34 143 1,794 1,059 63 43 164 41 357
2011 171 268 1,134 35 143 1,751 1,027 61 42 150 34 333
3Q 2011 181 272 1,156 33 140 1,781 1,028 57 46 154 35 335
4Q 2011 171 268 1,134 35 143 1,751 1,027 61 42 150 34 333
1Q 2012 162 271 1,163 36 145 1,777 1,064 54 39 134 36 314
2Q 2012 150 283 1,197 35 144 1,808 1,082 52 38 120 37 296
3Q 2012 151 289 1,200 35 143 1,818 1,064 49 44 127 36 300
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -16.2% 6.3% 3.8% 8.4% 1.9% 2.1% 3.5% -14.3% -4.5% -17.1% 2.8% -10.5%
Nov-11 177 267 1,151 34 142 1,772 1,034 58 42 144 39 328
Dec-11 171 268 1,134 35 143 1,751 1,027 61 42 150 34 333
Jan-12 176 274 1,140 36 145 1,771 1,036 63 42 149 34 336
Feb-12 167 271 1,143 36 148 1,764 1,043 59 41 139 36 325
Mar-12 162 271 1,163 36 145 1,777 1,064 54 39 134 36 314
Apr-12 152 276 1,173 36 139 1,776 1,073 51 40 125 34 300
May-12 152 280 1,186 36 139 1,794 1,082 50 40 122 33 295
Jun-12 150 283 1,197 35 144 1,808 1,082 52 38 120 37 296
Jul-12 155 280 1,199 34 142 1,809 1,066 53 40 127 36 303
Aug-12 158 285 1,187 33 138 1,801 1,058 49 43 127 34 300
Sep-12 151 289 1,200 35 143 1,818 1,064 49 44 127 36 300
Oct-12 145 277 1,205 36 146 1,810 1,070 51 45 119 37 295
Nov-12 146 275 1,202 38 147 1,809 1,074 54 41 118 38 294
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -17.4% 2.9% 4.4% 12.2% 3.7% 2.1% 3.9% -8.3% -3.2% -18.2% -4.4% -10.1%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 19
C4: US Petroleum Net Imports by Source (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Total includes net-imports from Russia and Asia-Pacific region. 2. Total OPEC includes the other eight cartel members. 3. As of latest month. Source EIA
Petroleum Supply Monthly.
C5: US Regional Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. California includes Federal Offshore crude oil production. 2. Gulf of Mexico includes Federal Offshore production adjacent to Texas and Louisiana. 3. Crude
oil Reserve-Production ratio as of latest production month. Crude oil production does not include NGLs. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
OPEC
Canada Mexico Lat. Am. Europe Africa M.E. Total1 Venez. S. Arabia Nigeria Total2 P. Gulf
2009 2.26 0.95 1.84 0.37 1.39 1.73 9.90 1.05 1.01 0.79 4.70 1.69
2010 2.34 0.83 1.56 0.30 1.60 1.76 9.46 0.95 1.12 1.00 4.79 1.75
2011 2.41 0.64 1.42 0.09 1.23 1.89 8.43 0.91 1.19 0.80 4.42 1.84
3Q 2011 2.37 0.68 1.36 -0.09 1.16 2.10 8.29 0.85 1.29 0.77 4.51 2.02
4Q 2011 2.47 0.54 1.33 0.00 0.95 1.96 7.76 0.79 1.22 0.64 4.11 1.91
1Q 2012 2.61 0.54 1.35 0.08 0.76 2.13 7.71 0.85 1.41 0.40 4.05 2.12
2Q 2012 2.59 0.49 1.03 0.02 0.79 2.38 7.83 0.79 1.50 0.43 4.37 2.38
3Q 2012 2.53 0.46 1.16 0.11 0.74 2.11 7.60 0.92 1.33 0.44 4.13 2.08
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.9% -31.5% -14.3% -231.1% -36.0% 0.5% -8.3% 7.4% 2.5% -42.9% -8.4% 3.1%
Nov-11 2.45 0.57 1.15 0.12 1.04 1.99 7.99 0.73 1.22 0.70 4.25 1.94
Dec-11 2.58 0.48 1.47 -0.12 0.90 1.96 7.41 0.79 1.31 0.53 3.93 1.90
Jan-12 2.66 0.58 1.26 -0.01 0.86 2.23 8.10 0.71 1.42 0.50 4.09 2.21
Feb-12 2.62 0.60 1.43 0.09 0.68 1.94 7.48 0.90 1.42 0.35 3.89 1.94
Mar-12 2.56 0.43 1.38 0.15 0.76 2.22 7.55 0.95 1.37 0.36 4.18 2.22
Apr-12 2.56 0.54 1.00 0.01 0.78 2.19 7.37 0.85 1.58 0.45 4.19 2.21
May-12 2.62 0.48 1.02 0.07 0.74 2.57 7.94 0.83 1.47 0.36 4.49 2.56
Jun-12 2.59 0.46 1.07 -0.01 0.84 2.37 8.18 0.69 1.45 0.50 4.44 2.37
Jul-12 2.54 0.43 1.25 0.10 0.63 2.12 7.54 0.99 1.47 0.37 4.22 2.12
Aug-12 2.68 0.44 1.24 0.16 0.86 2.11 7.88 0.92 1.22 0.50 4.19 2.07
Sep-12 2.39 0.51 1.00 0.08 0.74 2.09 7.38 0.84 1.29 0.45 3.99 2.07
Oct-12 2.27 0.40 0.92 -0.03 0.86 2.14 6.83 0.87 1.26 0.52 4.03 2.14
Nov-12 2.44 0.40 0.98 -0.04 0.74 2.10 6.70 0.96 1.32 0.48 4.01 2.10
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.5% -30.7% -14.7% -135.5% -29.0% 5.6% -16.1% 31.8% 8.3% -30.6% -5.7% 7.9%
% of Total3 36.4% 5.9% 14.6% -0.6% 11.0% 31.3% 100.0% 14.3% 19.8% 7.2% 59.8% 31.3%
Region of Origin
PAD District U.S. Major Producers
East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Alaska Calif.1 Louis. Texas G. of Mex.2
2009 0.02 0.58 3.06 0.35 1.27 5.27 0.63 0.63 0.20 1.08 1.51
2010 0.02 0.65 3.18 0.35 1.24 5.44 0.62 0.62 0.18 1.12 1.65
2011 0.02 0.79 3.29 0.37 1.17 5.63 0.56 0.60 0.19 1.36 1.45
3Q 2011 0.02 0.79 3.32 0.37 1.12 5.62 0.53 0.60 0.19 1.41 1.43
4Q 2011 0.02 0.87 3.29 0.39 1.15 5.73 0.56 0.58 0.18 1.54 1.28
1Q 2012 0.02 0.96 3.42 0.40 1.20 6.01 0.61 0.59 0.19 1.64 1.28
2Q 2012 0.02 1.00 3.54 0.41 1.14 6.11 0.56 0.57 0.18 1.73 1.31
3Q 2012 0.02 1.09 3.66 0.43 1.06 6.27 0.48 0.58 0.19 1.89 1.25
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 5.0% 38.8% 10.2% 16.7% -5.3% 11.6% -8.3% -3.1% 2.4% 33.6% -12.6%
Nov-11 0.02 0.87 3.19 0.40 1.17 5.64 0.58 0.58 0.18 1.54 1.15
Dec-11 0.02 0.90 3.32 0.39 1.15 5.78 0.57 0.58 0.18 1.58 1.29
Jan-12 0.02 0.90 3.22 0.37 1.13 5.65 0.57 0.56 0.18 1.55 1.18
Feb-12 0.03 1.00 3.56 0.42 1.28 6.28 0.65 0.63 0.20 1.70 1.33
Mar-12 0.02 0.97 3.50 0.40 1.20 6.09 0.61 0.59 0.19 1.67 1.33
Apr-12 0.02 0.95 3.44 0.40 1.14 5.94 0.56 0.57 0.18 1.66 1.29
May-12 0.02 1.00 3.67 0.41 1.15 6.26 0.57 0.59 0.18 1.76 1.41
Jun-12 0.02 1.04 3.53 0.42 1.12 6.13 0.55 0.56 0.18 1.77 1.25
Jul-12 0.02 1.08 3.62 0.43 1.12 6.27 0.55 0.57 0.19 1.83 1.27
Aug-12 0.02 1.07 3.52 0.41 1.04 6.06 0.48 0.56 0.18 1.84 1.17
Sep-12 0.02 1.14 3.84 0.45 1.03 6.48 0.43 0.60 0.20 1.99 1.31
Oct-12 0.02 1.14 3.56 0.43 0.99 6.15 0.40 0.59 0.18 2.00 1.05
Nov-12 0.02 1.18 3.74 0.44 1.08 6.47 0.50 0.58 0.18 2.05 1.17
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 11.8% 35.9% 17.4% 11.3% -7.4% 14.7% -14.1% -0.5% -2.3% 32.9% 1.5%
R/P Ratio3 6.5 7.0 8.3 11.0 17.8 9.9 20.3 15.6 6.5 7.6 9.7
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 20
C6: US Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent)
Notes: 1) As of most recent month. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
C7: US Refinery Margins ($US per barrel)
Note: Based on specific crude being processed in average cracking refinery in a given area. As of February 2010, NY Harbor Arab Med. is now East Coast Composite.
Source: Oil and Gas Journal.
East Mid-West South-Central North-West West U.S.
Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util.
2009 1.25 77.9 3.21 87.1 7.30 86.1 0.55 87.6 2.62 81.8 14.93 84.8
2010 1.14 82.4 3.34 89.7 7.66 89.0 0.55 88.4 2.63 82.2 15.32 87.4
2011 1.20 77.2 3.43 92.6 7.81 90.8 0.56 89.0 2.67 86.9 15.66 89.2
3Q 2011 1.25 77.4 3.45 92.7 7.94 91.9 0.54 85.8 2.75 88.0 15.93 89.8
4Q 2011 1.46 105.9 3.60 98.0 8.29 97.6 0.60 96.5 2.88 99.6 16.83 98.7
1Q 2012 1.11 102.6 3.57 98.1 8.34 96.9 0.61 97.3 2.85 97.1 16.48 97.6
2Q 2012 1.04 91.3 3.54 98.5 8.16 94.0 0.59 94.3 2.71 92.1 16.05 94.5
3Q 2012 0.99 82.6 3.42 92.6 7.97 91.3 0.58 92.6 2.65 87.5 15.61 90.3
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -21.1% -0.7% 0.3% 7.9% -3.7% -2.1%
Nov-11 1.62 127.2 3.72 102.0 8.64 103.7 0.62 100.0 3.13 119.8 17.73 107.5
Dec-11 1.62 131.1 3.72 102.0 8.64 101.5 0.62 100.0 3.13 106.3 17.73 104.6
Jan-12 1.19 117.6 3.66 101.1 8.73 102.0 0.62 100.0 3.12 106.3 17.32 103.4
Feb-12 1.19 114.2 3.66 101.1 8.73 102.1 0.62 100.0 3.11 109.2 17.31 103.8
Mar-12 0.95 79.6 3.38 92.1 7.58 86.8 0.57 92.0 2.33 76.9 14.80 85.9
Apr-12 0.96 80.9 3.55 96.8 7.54 86.4 0.53 84.6 2.35 77.5 14.93 86.6
May-12 1.19 112.7 3.67 106.0 8.73 101.6 0.62 100.0 3.03 109.2 17.23 104.4
Jun-12 0.98 82.7 3.41 93.1 8.22 94.2 0.61 98.2 2.76 91.0 15.98 92.8
Jul-12 0.98 82.7 3.48 94.9 8.18 93.8 0.60 96.3 2.74 90.5 15.98 92.8
Aug-12 0.97 87.5 3.46 93.3 7.98 91.4 0.59 93.9 2.62 86.6 15.62 90.8
Sep-12 1.01 78.3 3.33 89.6 7.74 88.7 0.55 87.7 2.59 85.3 15.22 87.5
Oct-12 1.05 80.9 3.33 89.3 7.77 89.0 0.52 84.0 2.48 81.9 15.15 87.1
Nov-12 0.93 71.7 3.27 87.9 8.20 93.9 0.56 89.9 2.45 80.7 15.41 88.5
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -42.7% -12.1% -5.1% -9.9% -21.8% -13.1%
% of Total1 6.0% 21.2% 53.2% 3.6% 15.9% 100.0%
NY Harbor Chicago US Gulf Los Angeles
(East Coast Comp.) (WTI) (WTS) (ANS)
2010 5.49 6.42 7.53 14.47
2011 9.38 22.39 16.94 16.76
2012 11.76 27.15 14.44 10.69
4Q 2011 5.69 17.05 6.33 15.29
1Q 2012 8.72 17.28 12.41 12.19
2Q 2012 11.69 29.64 15.71 9.80
3Q 2012 16.01 35.50 17.92 12.34
4Q 2012 10.60 26.18 11.73 8.43
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 86.1% 53.6% 85.3% -44.9%
Dec-11 3.51 7.62 5.32 14.13
Jan-12 9.79 11.55 11.35 16.87
Feb-12 8.89 13.56 12.31 7.54
Mar-12 7.47 26.73 13.57 12.16
Apr-12 12.25 25.23 17.11 8.99
May-12 11.19 26.99 13.86 15.94
Jun-12 11.64 36.71 16.15 4.48
Jul-12 14.60 29.10 15.63 7.25
Aug-12 15.29 39.25 18.60 14.23
Sep-12 18.15 38.15 19.54 15.53
Oct-12 14.15 30.36 16.24 18.77
Nov-12 11.07 28.70 10.73 8.21
Dec-12 6.57 19.47 8.23 -1.69
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 87.2% 155.5% 54.7% -112.0%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 21
D1: Canada Petroleum Supply and Demand Balances (million barrels per day)
D2: Canada Demand by Product (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. As of most recent month. See notes for Table C1 for additional comments. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.
D3: Canada Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)
Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.
Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All stocks are closing levels. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.
Canada East West
Supply Demand Net-Exp Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance
2009 3.21 1.68 1.58 0.05 0.30 1.04 -0.74 2.92 0.64 2.28
2010 3.32 1.73 1.68 0.08 0.32 1.07 -0.75 3.01 0.66 2.35
2011 3.53 1.64 1.84 -0.05 0.32 1.02 -0.70 3.21 0.63 2.59
4Q 2010 3.57 1.70 1.89 0.02 0.36 1.04 -0.67 3.20 0.66 2.54
1Q 2011 3.63 1.75 1.78 -0.10 0.38 1.07 -0.69 3.25 0.68 2.58
2Q 2011 3.30 1.56 1.69 -0.06 0.37 0.97 -0.61 2.94 0.58 2.36
3Q 2011 3.61 1.62 1.95 -0.04 0.37 1.01 -0.63 3.24 0.61 2.62
4Q 2011 3.79 1.65 2.15 0.01 0.37 1.02 -0.65 3.42 0.63 2.79
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.1% -3.1% 13.9% 1.4% -1.8% 6.7% -5.0%
Jan-11 3.65 1.63 1.92 -0.10 0.38 1.00 -0.62 3.27 0.63 2.63
Feb-11 3.63 1.76 1.74 -0.13 0.37 1.08 -0.71 3.26 0.68 2.58
Mar-11 3.61 1.86 1.69 -0.07 0.38 1.13 -0.76 3.23 0.72 2.51
Apr-11 3.51 1.59 1.85 -0.07 0.40 0.99 -0.60 3.11 0.60 2.51
May-11 3.18 1.57 1.56 -0.05 0.39 0.97 -0.57 2.79 0.60 2.19
Jun-11 3.23 1.51 1.66 -0.05 0.31 0.96 -0.66 2.92 0.55 2.37
Jul-11 3.53 1.54 2.05 0.06 0.36 0.97 -0.61 3.16 0.57 2.60
Aug-11 3.73 1.63 2.02 -0.08 0.39 1.02 -0.63 3.34 0.61 2.73
Sep-11 3.57 1.69 1.79 -0.09 0.37 1.03 -0.67 3.20 0.66 2.54
Oct-11 3.68 1.69 2.00 0.01 0.36 1.05 -0.69 3.32 0.64 2.68
Nov-11 3.72 1.68 2.05 0.01 0.37 1.03 -0.66 3.35 0.64 2.71
Dec-11 3.96 1.58 2.39 0.01 0.38 0.97 -0.60 3.58 0.60 2.98
Jan-12 3.82 1.61 2.15 -0.07 0.37 0.99 -0.62 3.45 0.62 2.84
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.8% -1.4% 11.8% -4.1% -0.9% 5.8% -2.1%
% of Total1 100.0% 100.0% 9.6% 61.5% 90.4% 38.5%
Finished Products NGLs Petrol.
Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2
2009 0.73 0.51 0.09 1.70 0.53 2.22
2010 0.75 0.55 0.09 1.79 0.53 2.32
2011 0.76 0.58 0.08 1.82 0.55 2.37
2Q 2011 0.77 0.55 0.08 1.79 0.49 2.28
3Q 2011 0.80 0.59 0.07 1.90 0.49 2.39
4Q 2011 0.75 0.58 0.08 1.77 0.57 2.35
1Q 2012 0.77 0.56 0.08 1.78 0.57 2.35
2Q 2012 0.82 0.56 0.08 1.89 0.38 2.27
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.8% 2.4% 0.1% 5.6% -21.6% -0.3%
Jul-11 0.81 0.53 0.06 1.83 0.48 2.31
Aug-11 0.83 0.60 0.08 1.97 0.54 2.51
Sep-11 0.75 0.65 0.08 1.90 0.45 2.35
Oct-11 0.74 0.56 0.07 1.76 0.50 2.25
Nov-11 0.76 0.63 0.08 1.79 0.55 2.35
Dec-11 0.76 0.54 0.10 1.77 0.67 2.44
Jan-12 0.76 0.57 0.08 1.74 0.56 2.31
Feb-12 0.72 0.55 0.07 1.71 0.57 2.28
Mar-12 0.82 0.57 0.09 1.89 0.56 2.45
Apr-12 0.84 0.51 0.08 1.79 0.38 2.18
May-12 0.81 0.61 0.07 1.89 0.38 2.28
Jun-12 0.81 0.56 0.09 1.98 0.38 2.37
Jul-12 0.84 0.55 0.08 1.98 0.38 2.37
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.0% 3.4% 30.2% 8.4% -20.7% 2.3%
Finished Products Crude Oil Petrol.
Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2
2009 15.5 15.8 2.6 65.8 76.5 142.3
2010 19.2 16.7 3.3 54.5 99.5 154.0
2011 19.0 18.0 2.9 56.1 100.1 156.2
2Q 2011 17.1 14.4 3.0 52.1 98.9 151.0
3Q 2011 19.4 15.1 3.4 54.4 97.1 151.5
4Q 2011 19.0 18.0 2.9 56.1 100.1 156.2
1Q 2012 19.4 17.3 3.1 56.5 101.1 157.6
2Q 2012 16.3 13.7 3.0 50.1 101.1 151.2
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -4.3% -4.9% 2.5% -3.7% 2.2% 0.2%
Jul-11 16.0 16.5 3.2 53.8 100.2 154.0
Aug-11 18.1 15.6 2.8 53.5 98.5 152.0
Sep-11 19.4 15.1 3.4 54.4 97.1 151.5
Oct-11 19.0 15.0 3.2 53.8 98.2 152.0
Nov-11 18.9 14.8 3.2 52.8 100.3 153.0
Dec-11 19.0 18.0 2.9 56.1 100.1 156.2
Jan-12 19.4 18.7 2.6 57.0 101.1 158.1
Feb-12 20.5 18.2 2.7 58.4 101.1 159.5
Mar-12 19.4 17.3 3.1 56.5 101.1 157.6
Apr-12 18.8 17.0 3.1 55.9 101.1 157.0
May-12 17.1 15.0 3.0 51.3 101.1 152.4
Jun-12 16.3 13.7 3.0 50.1 101.1 151.2
Jul-12 17.4 13.9 3.0 51.2 101.1 152.3
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 9.1% -15.5% -6.2% -4.8% 0.9% -1.1%
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 22
D4: Canada Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)
Note: Total includes small amounts of production from Manitoba and Ontario. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.
D5: Canada Petroleum Imports by Source (thousand barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Includes all non-OPEC production. 2. Includes production by the other seven OPEC members. 3. As of most recent month. Sources: Statistics Canada’s
Energy Statistics Handbook.
Major Producers Canada Petroleum Type
Alta. Sask. B.C. N.W.T. Atlantic Total1 Light SCO Heavy Bitumen NGLs
2009 1.97 0.42 0.03 0.02 0.27 2.74 0.77 0.77 0.43 0.61 0.15
2010 2.06 0.42 0.03 0.02 0.28 2.85 0.80 0.79 0.42 0.68 0.14
2011 2.23 0.43 0.04 0.01 0.27 3.03 0.83 0.86 0.43 0.76 0.14
4Q 2010 2.19 0.43 0.03 0.02 0.27 2.98 0.81 0.90 0.42 0.70 0.14
1Q 2011 2.18 0.44 0.04 0.02 0.27 2.98 0.83 0.84 0.42 0.74 0.14
2Q 2011 2.06 0.40 0.03 0.01 0.27 2.81 0.78 0.74 0.41 0.73 0.14
3Q 2011 2.32 0.43 0.03 0.01 0.28 3.11 0.82 0.94 0.43 0.78 0.14
4Q 2011 2.38 0.47 0.04 0.01 0.26 3.21 0.89 0.93 0.45 0.79 0.14
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 8.4% 8.2% 20.4% -12.6% -0.1% 7.9% 10.5% 3.9% 5.4% 12.8% 2.8%
Jan-11 2.17 0.43 0.04 0.02 0.27 2.96 0.82 0.83 0.42 0.74 0.14
Feb-11 2.21 0.44 0.04 0.02 0.26 3.00 0.82 0.85 0.42 0.75 0.14
Mar-11 2.17 0.44 0.04 0.02 0.27 2.98 0.84 0.83 0.43 0.73 0.14
Apr-11 2.17 0.41 0.04 0.02 0.29 2.97 0.85 0.82 0.41 0.74 0.15
May-11 1.91 0.40 0.03 0.01 0.29 2.68 0.79 0.61 0.42 0.72 0.14
Jun-11 2.09 0.39 0.03 0.00 0.23 2.78 0.72 0.77 0.41 0.74 0.14
Jul-11 2.28 0.41 0.03 0.01 0.28 3.04 0.78 0.90 0.42 0.79 0.14
Aug-11 2.38 0.43 0.03 0.01 0.30 3.19 0.84 0.99 0.43 0.79 0.14
Sep-11 2.30 0.44 0.04 0.01 0.28 3.11 0.85 0.93 0.44 0.75 0.14
Oct-11 2.36 0.46 0.04 0.01 0.27 3.18 0.87 0.95 0.44 0.78 0.14
Nov-11 2.33 0.46 0.04 0.01 0.27 3.17 0.89 0.90 0.44 0.78 0.14
Dec-11 2.45 0.48 0.04 0.01 0.26 3.29 0.92 0.95 0.45 0.81 0.15
Jan-12 2.42 0.47 0.04 0.01 0.26 3.25 0.90 0.94 0.45 0.81 0.14
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 11.6% 9.2% 8.4% -7.7% -2.3% 9.9% 10.1% 13.3% 7.0% 9.6% 0.3%
R/P Ratio2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Non-OPEC OPEC Imports
Mexico U.S. U.K. Norway Total1 Algeria Nigeria S. Arabia Venez. Total2 P. Gulf Total
2009 26 14 108 98 492 129 48 66 25 294 92 786
2010 23 13 99 72 451 112 71 69 27 318 109 770
2011 20 8 40 76 379 129 54 73 15 300 102 679
2Q 2011 21 5 58 46 349 121 47 91 46 317 103 666
3Q 2011 32 7 10 118 369 114 63 57 13 256 67 625
4Q 2011 15 10 26 69 392 143 28 73 0 294 123 686
1Q 2012 15 3 42 41 326 140 63 79 9 364 152 690
2Q 2012 22 0 37 45 354 151 14 80 17 343 160 697
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 7.8% -100.0% -35.9% -2.5% 1.3% 25.4% -70.1% -12.3% -62.7% 8.1% 54.9% 4.5%
Jul-11 29 6 0 75 319 107 84 69 21 281 69 600
Aug-11 39 6 29 180 449 106 21 33 17 177 33 626
Sep-11 27 9 0 100 339 128 83 69 0 311 100 650
Oct-11 33 11 35 101 517 127 31 80 0 238 80 755
Nov-11 10 11 43 33 346 150 32 70 0 400 218 746
Dec-11 0 8 0 72 311 153 22 70 0 245 70 557
Jan-12 22 0 44 45 270 182 62 68 0 400 156 670
Feb-12 0 8 55 2 421 123 69 71 26 337 119 758
Mar-12 22 0 27 76 285 115 59 99 0 356 182 641
Apr-12 19 0 20 24 307 151 12 95 32 333 138 640
May-12 26 0 14 24 367 165 30 77 0 436 241 803
Jun-12 23 0 77 88 388 139 0 67 20 259 100 647
Jul-12 26 0 23 65 395 99 67 69 21 319 132 714
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -10.6% -100.0% #DIV/0! -13.8% 23.6% -7.3% -20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 92.7% 19.0%
% of Total3 3.6% 0.0% 3.3% 9.1% 55.3% 13.9% 9.3% 9.6% 2.9% 44.7% 18.5% 100.0%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 23
E1: World Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)
Notes: 1. Does not include active rigs in the Former Soviet Union and onshore rigs in China. 2. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.
E2: North American Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)
Notes: 1. Excluding Mexico. 2. Includes drilling on inland waterways. 3. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.
OECD Non-OECD OPEC World
N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total Asia Non-Asia Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1
2010 1,968 78 21 2,067 189 390 579 109 173 282 2,929
2011 2,363 96 18 2,477 -42 666 624 172 161 333 3,433
2012 2,390 99 24 2,513 -33 661 628 230 145 376 3,517
4Q 2011 2,473 95 19 2,586 -44 673 629 173 155 329 3,544
1Q 2012 2,681 92 19 2,791 -44 670 626 187 167 354 3,772
2Q 2012 2,253 97 25 2,375 -42 663 621 219 157 376 3,372
3Q 2012 2,340 98 25 2,463 -13 647 634 265 126 391 3,488
4Q 2012 2,285 110 27 2,422 -31 663 631 250 131 381 3,434
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -7.6% 16.2% 42.1% -6.4% -29.3% -1.5% 0.4% 44.0% -15.5% 15.9% -3.1%
Dec-11 2,189 83 22 2,294 -58 673 615 152 165 317 3,226
Jan-12 2,679 85 17 2,781 -46 665 619 190 161 351 3,751
Feb-12 2,793 99 20 2,912 -43 676 633 187 169 356 3,901
Mar-12 2,570 91 20 2,681 -42 669 627 184 171 355 3,663
Apr-12 2,222 97 24 2,343 -51 665 614 186 155 341 3,298
May-12 2,225 99 25 2,349 -55 678 623 194 169 363 3,335
Jun-12 2,312 96 26 2,434 -21 647 626 278 146 424 3,484
Jul-12 2,361 93 28 2,482 -15 640 625 281 127 408 3,515
Aug-12 2,341 100 25 2,466 -7 643 636 263 123 386 3,488
Sep-12 2,317 101 23 2,441 -16 657 641 252 127 379 3,461
Oct-12 2,305 102 22 2,429 -26 658 632 254 137 391 3,452
Nov-12 2,299 109 28 2,436 -32 667 635 260 130 390 3,461
Dec-12 2,251 119 31 2,401 -36 663 627 235 127 362 3,390
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 2.8% 43.4% 40.9% 4.7% -37.9% -1.5% 2.0% 54.6% -23.0% 14.2% 5.1%
% of Total2 66.4% 3.5% 0.9% 70.8% -1.1% 19.6% 18.5% 6.9% 3.7% 10.7% 100.0%
United States Canada North America1
East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Land2 Offshore Total Oil Gas Total
2010 112 282 969 131 46 1,540 1,509 32 351 949 942 1,891
2011 133 399 1,132 156 55 1,875 1,843 32 431 1,419 888 2,307
2012 113 440 1,144 168 53 1,919 1,871 47 364 1,725 558 2,283
4Q 2011 141 442 1,198 170 59 2,010 1,973 38 492 1,624 878 2,502
1Q 2012 137 441 1,187 170 55 1,990 1,948 43 592 1,856 726 2,582
2Q 2012 116 448 1,181 166 59 1,970 1,924 46 172 1,547 595 2,143
3Q 2012 100 444 1,134 172 56 1,905 1,855 51 326 1,746 485 2,231
4Q 2012 97 429 1,076 164 44 1,809 1,759 50 368 1,753 423 2,176
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -31.4% -2.9% -10.2% -3.6% -26.1% -10.0% -10.8% 32.3% -25.3% 7.9% -51.8% -13.0%
Jan-12 143 432 1,200 173 55 2,003 1,960 43 577 1,790 790 2,580
Feb-12 139 444 1,179 173 55 1,990 1,949 42 706 1,974 723 2,697
Mar-12 130 447 1,182 165 54 1,979 1,935 43 492 1,804 667 2,471
Apr-12 124 442 1,177 163 55 1,962 1,917 44 158 1,491 629 2,119
May-12 117 452 1,186 166 57 1,977 1,931 46 133 1,511 600 2,110
Jun-12 108 450 1,180 170 64 1,972 1,923 49 227 1,641 558 2,199
Jul-12 108 453 1,150 172 63 1,944 1,894 51 307 1,729 522 2,251
Aug-12 100 443 1,140 173 58 1,913 1,863 50 316 1,742 487 2,229
Sep-12 94 437 1,111 171 47 1,859 1,808 51 355 1,767 447 2,214
Oct-12 96 429 1,092 173 45 1,834 1,785 49 365 1,773 426 2,199
Nov-12 97 432 1,076 159 44 1,809 1,758 51 385 1,772 421 2,193
Dec-12 98 426 1,059 158 43 1,784 1,734 50 353 1,714 423 2,137
Jan-13 98 428 1,039 148 44 1,756 1,705 52 463 1,786 434 2,220
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -31.1% -1.0% -13.4% -14.5% -20.4% -12.3% -13.0% 20.3% -19.7% -0.2% -45.0% -14.0%
% of Total3 4.4% 19.3% 46.8% 6.7% 2.0% 79.1% 76.8% 2.3% 20.9% 80.4% 19.6% 100.0%
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 24
Geographical Specifications
1. The World: OECD is comprised of countries from three regions: North America (Canada, Mexico, US); Europe (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic,
Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak
Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK); and Asia-Pacific (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea). OPEC is comprised of Persian Gulf (Iran,
Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) and non-Persian Gulf countries (Algeria, Indonesia, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela). Non-OECD is
comprised of countries from three regions: Former Soviet Union (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirghizstan, Moldova, Russia,
Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan); Asia (including non-OECD
Oceania); and non-Asia (Africa, Middle East, Latin America, and non-
OECD Europe). 2. United States: East (PADD I) – New England
(Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island,
Vermont); Central Atlantic (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York,
Pennsylvania, and the District of Columbia) and Lower Atlantic (Florida,
Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia). Mid
-West (PADD II) – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan,
Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South
Dakota, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. South-Central (PADD III) – Alabama,
Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico and Texas. North-West
(PADD IV) – Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming. West
(PADD V) – Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon,
Washington.
3. Canada: East is comprised of Ontario, Manitoba, Quebec and the
Maritime provinces (New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova
Scotia, and Prince Edward Island). West is comprised of Alberta, British
Columbia, Saskatchewan and the northern territories (NorthWest
Territories, Nunavuut, and Yukon).
Additional Notes
1. Petroleum and oil refer to crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs),
whereas crude oil refers to its namesake and field condensates.
Condensates derived from natural gas processing plants are classified as
NGLs. 2. The spot price is for immediate delivery of crude oil or refined
products at a specific location. Spot transactions are generally on a cargo
by cargo basis. In contrast, a futures price is for delivery of a specified
quantity of a commodity at a specified time and place in the future. 3.
Crude oil sold Free-On-Board (FOB) is made available to the buyer at the
loading port at a particular time, with transportation and insurance the
responsibility of the buyer. Crude oil sold Cost-Insurance-Freight (CIF) is
priced at a major destination point, with the seller responsible for the
transportation and insurance to that point. A “Delivered” transaction is
similar to a CIF transaction, except the buyer in the former pays based on the quantity and quality ascertained at the unloading port, whereas in a CIF
transaction, the buyer accepts the quantity and quality as determined at the loading port. 4. Processing gain is the volume of which refinery output is
greater than crude oil inputs. The difference is due to the processing of crude oil products, which in total have a lower specific gravity than crude oil. 5.
Unaccounted for crude oil reconciles the difference between crude input to refineries and the sum of domestic production, net imports/exports, stock
changes and documented losses (in the U.S.). 6. Totals may not equal the sum of their parts in the statistical tables due to rounding.
Crude Stream
Producing
Country or
Region
API
Gravity
(@60° F)
Sulfur
Content
(%)
BBLs/Metric
Tonne
Tapis Blend Malaysia 44 0.1 7.910
Ekofisk Blend Norway 43 0.2 7.773
WTI Texas 40 0.3 7.640
GCS Gulf of Mexico 40 0.3 7.640
Oklahoma Sweet Oklahoma 40 0.3 7.640
Kansas Sweet Kansas 40 0.4 7.640
Wyoming Sweet Wyoming 40 0.2 7.640
ELS Alberta 40 0.5 7.640
Brent Blend United kingdom 38 0.8 7.551
Bonny Light Nigeria 37 0.1 7.506
Oman Blend Oman 36 0.8 7.462
Arabian Light Saudi Arabia 34 1.8 7.373
Minas Indonesia 34 0.1 7.373
Isthmus Mexico 34 1.5 7.373
Michigan Sour Michigan 34 1.7 7.373
WTS Texas 33 1.7 7.328
Urals Russia 32 1.7 7.284
Tia Juana Light Venezuela 32 1.2 7.284
Dubai U.A.E. 31 1.7 7.239
Lost Hills California 30 0.6 7.194
Cano Limon Colombia 28 0.6 7.105
Arabian Heavy Saudi Arabia 27 2.8 7.061
ANS Alaska 27 1.1 7.061
Oriente Ecuador 25 1.4 6.971
Hardisty Heavy Alberta 25 2.1 6.971
Maya Mexico 22 3.3 6.838
Kern River California 13 1.0 6.436
Crude Oil Qualities
For more information, please contact Dinara Millington at [email protected]. Canadian Energy Research Institute 150, 3512 – 33 Street NW Calgary, AB T2L 2A6
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