December 2007 Predictive Profiling and Terrorist Threat Mitigation Anaheim, CA.
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Transcript of December 2007 Predictive Profiling and Terrorist Threat Mitigation Anaheim, CA.
December 2007December 2007Predictive Profiling and Predictive Profiling and
Terrorist Threat MitigationTerrorist Threat Mitigation
Anaheim, CA Anaheim, CA
What is “Profiling”?What is “Profiling”?
CRIME TERRORISM
The nature of the terrorist threatThe nature of the terrorist threat
Terrorist ActsTerrorist Actsvs.vs. Criminal ActsCriminal Acts
The Nature of the Terrorist ThreatThe Nature of the Terrorist Threat
1. Modern Terrorism
2. State Sponsored Terrorism
3. Detailed Planning
4. Sophisticated but Not Complex Execution
5. Building a Legitimate Profile
6. Highly Motivated
1. Indiscriminate 2. Soft Targets 3. Politically Motivated4. Driven by Media Exposure 5. Usage of WMD
Modern TerrorismModern Terrorism
Political AspectPolitical Aspect
Democracy Democracy
Terrorism
Totalitarian Totalitarian
AssassinationAssassination
Modern TerrorismModern Terrorism
1. Unlimited Funds
2. Ability to Assume Legitimate Identities
3. Ability to Train in a Safe Environment
4. Working Under Diplomatic Cover
5. Accessibility to Means of Aggression
State Sponsored TerrorismState Sponsored Terrorism
$250,000www.belizeretire.com
“Karine A” $7m“Karine A” $7m
1. One to Five Years of Careful Planning
2. Learning Security Loopholes
3. Learning the Operational Environment of the Target
4. Rehearsing the Plan (Dry Runs)
Detailed PlanningDetailed Planning
Sophisticated but Not Complex ExecutionSophisticated but Not Complex Execution
1. Swift and Aggressive Execution 2. Element of Surprise3. Utilizing Available Resources4. Multiple Targets Simultaneously
5. Using Suicide Bombers (“Smart Bomb”)6. Multiple Bombs in One Target
Building a Legitimate ProfileBuilding a Legitimate Profile
1. Assuming New Identities
2. Blending In as Law-Abiding Citizens
3. Becoming “Normal” Social Participants
4. Utilizing “Mules”
April 1994 – Hussein MikdadApril 1994 – Hussein Mikdad
1. Hezbollah Operation
2. Stolen UK Passport (John Newman)
3. Infiltration through Israeli Immigration
4. Prolonged Surveillance Activity
5. Failure due to “working accident” with the explosive charges
The Hezbollah Infiltration MO The Hezbollah Infiltration MO
An International NetworkAn International Network
The Doctors’ Plot – UK July 2007The Doctors’ Plot – UK July 2007
Bilal AbdullahMohammed Asha
Palestinian, Born in SA and raised in Jordan. On a year-long license to practice medicine in the UK
Born in the UKTrained in Iraq as a doctor and was practicing medicine in the UK
Kafeel Ahmed
Indian Muslim born in India and raised in Saudi Arabia. Studying in UK for a PHD in engineering
Video
The Ann Marie Murphy CaseThe Ann Marie Murphy Case
Name:Name: Ann Marie Murphy
Gender:Gender: Female
Age:Age: 26
Nationality:Nationality: Irish
Visual Suspicion Indicator:Visual Suspicion Indicator: A Pregnant Woman Traveling Alone
Possible AMO:Possible AMO: Use of an innocent person to deliver a bomb onto the aircraft (“Mule”)
Q: Good morning Ma’am, my name is Erez and I’m the security officer in charge of the security of your flight. With your permission I’d like to ask you a couple of questions
A: Sure, go ahead
Q: May I ask what is the purpose of your visit to Israel?
A: I’m going to see the holy places
Q: Have you ever been to Israel before?
A: No. this is my first time
Q: Do you know anyone in Israel or in the West Bank?
A: I told you – This is my first visit…
Q: But do you know anyone there?
A: No.
Q: How long do you plan to stay in Israel?
A: Two weeks.
Q: Where are you going to stay?
A: In Hilton Hotels.
Q: Where Exactly?
A: Hilton Tel Aviv and Hilton Bethlehem.
Q: Do you have reservations for these hotels?
A: I don’t need reservations – I work for the Hilton Hotel Chain.
Q: That is great. May I ask in what capacity?
A: I am a chamber maid.
Q: Do you happen to have your employee I.D with you?
A: Yes I do (Presents the I.D.)
Q: Did you call ahead of time to let anyone know that you are coming?
A: No.
Q: What will you do if the hotels are fully booked when you arrive?
A: I will have to stay in a different hotel…Why are you asking all these questions?
A: I have 100 pounds in cash and a credit card.
Q: As I explained, this is a standard procedure. I am asking these questions to insure the safety and security of the flight. Do you have funds in case you need to stay in an alternative hotel?
Q: May I see the credit card?
A: (Presents a retail store credit card valid only in certain retail chains in GB)
Q: Ma’am, this is not a valid credit card for use in Israel.
A: Well…I’ll probably not need it anyways…
Q: Ma’am, did anyone ask you to take anything with you on board the flight?
A: No.
Q: I am asking this because in the past there have been cases in which innocent passengers where used to carry explosives onto the aircraft without their knowledge. Are you sure everything here belongs to you?
A: Yes
Name:Name: Ann Marie Murphy
Gender:Gender: Female
Age:Age: 26
Nationality:Nationality: Irish
Suspicion Indicator from questioningSuspicion Indicator from questioning A Pregnant Woman Traveling Alone
Insufficient funds for the duration and nature of the trip
Incoherent story
There is no Hilton hotel in Bethlehem
MitigationMitigation – Thorough inspection of Ann Marie’s suitcase FindingsFindings 2 kg of Semtex explosives with a barometric mechanism hidden inside of a calculator
Explosives came to London via Syrian diplomatic mail
OperatorOperator – Nezar Hindawi
Success Success
375 lives were saved
War between Israel and Syria was prevented
May 2002 – Pi Glilot Gas DepotMay 2002 – Pi Glilot Gas Depot
1. Use of a mule
2. Prolonged surveillance
3. Estimated death toll – 20,000
4. Bomb activation through remote control
5. Explosion occurred
Terrorists’ MotivationTerrorists’ Motivation
Motive + Opportunity = Motive + Opportunity = TerroristTerroristPotentialPotential
Marking1. Marking
2. Intelligence Gathering
3. Surveillance
4. Planning
5. Tooling Up
6. Rehearsing / Training
7. Execution
8. Getaway
to Getaway
ExecutionExecution
Predictive Profiling is a method of threat assessment designed to predict and categorize the potential for inappropriate, harmful, criminal and/or terrorist behavior and consequently deploy the procedures required in order to eliminate these threats.
Predictive Profiling DefinitionPredictive Profiling Definition
Kozo Okamoto - 1972
What was the nationality of the first What was the nationality of the first terrorist to attack Ben Gurion AP?terrorist to attack Ben Gurion AP?
Patrick Argüello - 1970
1.1. American MotherAmerican Mother
2.2. Nicaraguan FatherNicaraguan Father
3.3. Raised in L.A. and Raised in L.A. and South AmericaSouth America
4.4. Sandinista TerroristSandinista Terrorist
The Course of Action Used by Terrorists to The Course of Action Used by Terrorists to Achieve Their ObjectiveAchieve Their Objective
Establishing a commercial company to be involved in a terrorist activity
Recruiting an employee from within the protected environment
Using emergency vehicle to transport means of aggression
Using a “mule” to deliver a bomb into a protected environment (unintentionally/semi-unintentionally)
Aggressor’s Method of Operation (AMO)Aggressor’s Method of Operation (AMO)
An AMO represents a proven actionable An AMO represents a proven actionable terrorist method. A Scenario is an outline terrorist method. A Scenario is an outline or model of an expected or supposed or model of an expected or supposed sequence of events.sequence of events.
AMO vs. ScenarioAMO vs. Scenario
You prove a scenario using AMOs
An indication based on known (or predicted) An indication based on known (or predicted) terrorist or criminal methods of operations or terrorist or criminal methods of operations or deviation from a typical profile that may lead deviation from a typical profile that may lead one to believe that an observed situation one to believe that an observed situation (persons and/or objects) may have the potential (persons and/or objects) may have the potential for harming the protected environment and its for harming the protected environment and its inhabitants.inhabitants.
An indication based on known (or predicted) An indication based on known (or predicted) terrorist or criminal methods of operations or terrorist or criminal methods of operations or deviation from a typical profile deviation from a typical profile that may lead that may lead one to believe that an observed situation one to believe that an observed situation (persons and/or objects) may have the potential (persons and/or objects) may have the potential for harming the protected environment and its for harming the protected environment and its inhabitants.inhabitants.
Suspicion Indicator - DefinitionSuspicion Indicator - Definition
Threat is suspicion that was not refutedThreat is suspicion that was not refuted
Threat vs. SuspicionThreat vs. Suspicion
DDDDDD
etectetect
eterminetermin
eployeploy
suspicionsuspicion
method of operationmethod of operation
against the MOagainst the MO
The Security ProcessThe Security Process
Where did we fail in 9/11?Where did we fail in 9/11?
The OODA LoopThe OODA Loop
The OODA LoopThe OODA Loop"In order to win, we should operate at a faster tempo or rhythm than our adversaries--or, better yet, get inside [the] adversary's Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action time cycle or loop. ... Such activity will make us appear ambiguous (unpredictable) thereby generate confusion and disorder among our adversaries.“ John Boyd, "Patterns of Conflict"
The OODA LoopThe OODA Loop
OOOOStuck in Stuck in OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Threat is constant while Risk is a variableThreat is constant while Risk is a variable
Threat vs. RiskThreat vs. Risk
SIs: late, strange perfume, hair messed-up
AMO?
Cheating
Marriage
Do you assume THREAT or RISK when it comes to
your relationship???
How do you protect your home?
Who?Who?
Why?Why?
When ?When ?
how?how?
Where?Where?
Suicide Bomber Detected – Natania IsraelSuicide Bomber Detected – Natania Israel
Asif Hanif and Omar Sharif Asif Hanif and Omar Sharif traveled from Britain to traveled from Britain to Israel under the auspices of Israel under the auspices of the International Solidarity the International Solidarity Movement’s (ISM) Movement’s (ISM) Alternative Tourism Group, Alternative Tourism Group, the precursor to the ISM. the precursor to the ISM. Both terrorists told Israeli Both terrorists told Israeli border police they were border police they were entering for purposes of entering for purposes of Alternative Tourism. They Alternative Tourism. They met with the ISM in Gaza at met with the ISM in Gaza at a memorial for Rachel a memorial for Rachel Corrie. Corrie.
Infiltration Using European PassportsInfiltration Using European Passports
Mike’s Place – April 30 2003Mike’s Place – April 30 2003
Avi Tabib – Bouncer at Mike’s PlaceAvi Tabib – Bouncer at Mike’s Place
THANK YOU! THANK YOU!
Amotz BrandesManaging PartnerChameleon Associates LLC(818) 734 [email protected]