December 15, 2010 Iraq’s Democracy at a Crossroad · 2016. 10. 2. · December 15, 2010 Page 2 |...

December 15, 2010

Report on GQR and NDI Fall 2010 Public Opinion Research

Iraq’s Democracy at a Crossroad

December 15, 2010

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 1 |

Research Methodology

National survey: October 25 – November 2, 2010

— 2,000 face-to-face interviews of adults 18 years old and over; distributed

representatively by province; national margin of error (MoE) of +/- 2.19%

— Regional breakdowns:

• Baghdad: 489 interviews (+/- 4.43% MoE)

• West (Anbar, Diyala, Ninewa, Salahaddin, and Kirkuk): 546 interviews (+/-

4.19% MoE)

• South (Basra, Babil, Muthanna, Missan, Qadissiyah, Najaf, Thi-Qar, Wasit,

and Karbala): 696 interviews (+/- 3.71% MoE)

• North (Sulaymaniyah, Dohuk, and Erbil): 269 interviews (+/- 5.97% MoE)

— Due to security and timing concerns, no interviews were conducted in Dohuk

(1.7% of population), Muthanna (2.1% of pop.), or Missan (2.8% of pop.)

Focus groups: September 22 – September 27, 2010 — 16 focus groups

— Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, Mosul, Baghdad, Hilla, Samarra, Diyala, and Basra

— Groups were homogenous based on ethnicity, religion, gender, age,

education, and political leanings

December 15, 2010


45

25

57

50

59

49

3739 37

31

38

56

4844

38

60

0

20

40

60

Total Baghdad West South North Shia Kurd Sunni

Right Wrong

Positive country mood dampened by West and Sunnis Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction?

December 15, 2010


26

36

33

31

26

56

47

48

44

44

66

58

56

51

41

47

47

42

26

23

0 20 40 60 80

Corruption

Housing

Job opportunities

Electricity supply

Cost of living

Conditions for women

Health care

Water supply

Security

Education

Getting worse Getting better

Most issues improving Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq.

-

6

December 15, 2010


46

38

0

10

20

30

40

50

Strong Weak

Optimistic view on economic conditions

Now I want to ask you about the economy. Would you say Iraq's economy right now is strong or weak?

December 15, 2010


48

24

62

21 22

61

47

2631 30

0

20

40

60

80

Total Baghdad West South North

Better Worse

Personal finances outlook strong, except in West region How do you think the financial position of your own household will change over the next 12 months - do you think it will get worse, or do you think it will get better?

NET +40 +16 -6 +40 +22

December 15, 2010


8

10

10

11

12

22

29

36

56

0 20 40 60

Health care

Infrastructure development

Education

Sectarianism

High prices

Corruption

Basic services like electricity and water

Security

Jobs and unemployment

Jobs dominates as leading concern

Now, I am going to read you a list of concerns that some people may have. Please tell me which TWO

of these are the most important for the government to address.

December 15, 2010


26

36

33

31

26

56

47

48

44

44

66

58

56

51

41

47

47

42

26

23

0 20 40 60 80

Corruption

Housing

Job opportunities

Electricity supply

Cost of living


Health care

Water supply

Security

Education


Job opportunities getting worse Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq.

-

6

December 15, 2010


61

48

7570

14 14

50

20 2327

0

20

40

60

80


Making Iraq more democratic will likely improve services and our quality of life.

Making Iraq more democratic would likely make services worse and hurt our quality of life.

Most see democracy as likely to improve quality of life

December 15, 2010


44

22

5865

2922

3835

4341

0

20

40

60

80


Iraq today is a real democracy. Iraq today is not a real democracy.

Regional differences on whether Iraq is a real democracy

December 15, 2010


44

59

3538

62

35

26 30

0

20

40

60

80

Total Kurds Shia Sunni


Sectarian differences on whether Iraq is a real democracy

December 15, 2010


32

23

3228

25

15

24

52

62 60 62

49

25

55

67 70

0

20

40

60

80

Security Cost of

living

Jobs Water Electricity Country

direction

Housing Economy

Right/strong/better Wrong/weak/worse

West region significantly more pessimistic

Wrong/weak

/worse dif. +19 +15 +24 +23 +11 +22 +18 +16

*Values represent the difference between the West region’s wrong/weak/worse and non-West Iraq’s wrong/weak/worse

December 15, 2010


44

22

5865

6259

3529

2226

30

383835

4341

0

20

40

60

80

Total Baghdad West South North Kurds Shia Sunni


West region and Sunnis sees a lack of real democracy in Iraq

December 15, 2010


5863

4852

80

42

20

37

0

20

40

60

80

Total Kurds Shia Sunni

Likely to vote in next parliamentary elections

Not likely to vote in next parliamentary elections

Sunnis least likely to participate in future elections

December 15, 2010


50

84

37

90

20

40

60

80

100

Iraq Kurdistan

Right Wrong

North significantly more optimistic about their region (NORTH ONLY) Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq/Kurdistan are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction?

December 15, 2010


89

77

67 6759

75

40

2218

2834

16

56 5351

8

33

21

0

20

40

60

80

100

Security Housing Water Electricity Health care Cost of living Education Jobs Corruption

Better Worse

North stronger on key issues, except jobs and corruption

Better North-

non-North +20 +9 +31 +21 +16 +25 +12

* Values represent the difference between the North’s better and non-North Iraq’s better numbers

+2 +3

December 15, 2010


85

130

20

40

60

80

100

Approve Disapprove

Strong approval of KRG (NORTH ONLY) Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by the Kurdistan Regional Government?

December 15, 2010


26

36

33

31

26

56

47

48

44

44

66

58

56

51

41

47

47

42

26

23

0 20 40 60 80

Corruption

Housing

Job opportunities

Electricity supply

Cost of living


Health care

Water supply

Security

Education


Corruption getting worse Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq.

-

6

December 15, 2010


63

60

60

44

56

0 20 40 60 80

Jobs and

unemployment

North South West Baghdad Total

Now, I am going to read you a list of concerns that some people may have. Please tell me which TWO

of these are the most important for the government to address. [percent who pick “jobs and

unemployment” as one of their top two concerns]

Jobs concern higher outside of Baghdad

December 15, 2010


47

25

63

32 3441

5967

4144

0

20

40

60

80


Jobs getting worse; cost of living marginally better

42

23

65

40

29

56

31

48 48

70

0

20

40

60

80


Better Worse

Cost of living Job opportunities

Now I will read you a list of issues. Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq.

December 15, 2010


8

12

24

25

26

28

31

33

0 10 20 30 40

Reduce paperwork required to start businesses

Provide incentives to attract foreign investment

Provide subsidies to help Iraqi farmers

Access to loans for small biz entrepreneurs

Infrastructure dev't such as roads and bridges

Incentives for co's to hire more employees

Develop non-oil related industries

Bring more foreign oil co's to dev. oil fields

Foreign help for oil industry; develop non-oil industries

Now I am going to read a list of things some people say are needed to improve the economic situation

in Iraq. Which of the following TWO things are most needed to improve the economy?

December 15, 2010


Electricity supply improving

47

28

48

67

45

18

54

62

36

44

0

20

40

60

80


Better Worse


December 15, 2010


21 20

31

54

31

419

53 51

6561

9

29

1623

0

20

40

60

80


Less than 5 hours 6 to 10 hours 10 hours or more

Electricity availability best in the North

On average, how many hours of electricity does your household receive each day from the national grid?

December 15, 2010


56

32

68

77

21 21

55

33 32

52

0

20

40

60

80


Better Worse

Water supply improving


December 15, 2010


Current water access

35

27

37

54

1419

25

4

61

35

10

53

3126

59

0

20

40

60

80

Always Every

day

< daily Always Every

day


day


day


day

< daily

How often does your household have access to clean water? Would you say that your household

always has access to clean water, most of the time, sometimes, rarely, or do you never have access

to clean water?


December 15, 2010

66

50

7975

16 16

58

26

3341

0

20

40

60

80


Better Worse


Education shows strong improvement


December 15, 2010


12

20

24

28

33

36

36

0 10 20 30 40

Increase teacher salaries

Provide free school supplies and uniforms

Build more schools

Inc. punishments for teacher bribes

Improve quality of teachers

Improve school curriculum

Reduce class sizes

Better and more teachers; improve curriculum

Now I am going to read a list of things some people say are needed to improve education in Iraq.

Which of the following TWO things are most needed to improve education?

December 15, 2010


51

29

66 67

2428

46

36 38

53

0

20

40

60

80


Better Worse

Health care shows strong improvement


December 15, 2010


45

39

36

25

21

17

7

0 10 20 30 40 50

Increase doctors' salaries

Shorter waiting times at hospitals

Inc. punishments for doctor bribes

Improve the quality of care

Increase availability of medicines

Decrease price of medicines

Build more hospitals and clinics

More hospital and clinics; better access to medication

Now I am going to read a list of things some people say are needed to improve health care in Iraq.

Which of the following TWO things are most needed to improve health care?

December 15, 2010


58

32

75

89

19

48

9

31 35

55

0

20

40

60

80

100


Better Worse

Majorities in South and North see security improving


December 15, 2010


8677

97 99

75

1313

23 22

0

20

40

60

80

100


Safe Unsafe

Most Iraqis feel safe in their neighborhoods Generally, speaking, do you feel safe or unsafe in your neighborhood?

December 15, 2010


67

17

0

20

40

60

80

Security will improve when the American military leaves.

Security will deteriorate with the departure of the American military.

Strong majority think U.S. withdrawal will improve security

December 15, 2010


5

12

16

24

24

29

34

42

0 10 20 30 40 50

Integration of Sahwas into the armed forces

Higher salaries for armed forces

Disband all militias

Better armed forces equipment

Get remaining American troops out of Iraq

A unity gov't, to reduce sectarian tensions

Better armed forces training

Tighter border control

Tighter borders and better training will improve security

Now I am going to read a list of things some people say are needed to improve the security situation in

Iraq. Which of the following TWO things are most needed to improve security?

December 15, 2010


2315

34

22

52 53

18

5650

70

0

20

40

60

80


Better Worse

Corruption is widespread


December 15, 2010


Research Methodology

Minority oversample: November 7 – 14, 2010

— 1,200 face-to-face interviews of adults minorities 18 years old and over

• 400 interviews of Christians in Bagdad, Basra, and Ninewa (+/- 4.9% MoE)

• 400 interviews of Turkmen in Ninewa and Kirkuk (+/- 4.9% MoE)

• 200 interviews of Sabians in Baghdad, Basra, and Thi-Qar (+/- 6.9% MoE)

• 200 interviews of Yezidi in Ninewa (+/- 6.9% MoE)

Focus groups: September 22 – September 27, 2010 — 4 focus groups: pro-Kurd Christian (Erbil), pro-Arab Christian (Mosul),

Yezidis (Erbil), and Sabians (Baghdad)

— Groups were homogenous based on ethnicity, religion, gender, age, and

education

December 15, 2010


6166 66

94

28

74

420 4 120

20

40

60

80

100

National Christian Turkmen Sabian Yezidi

Making Iraq more democratic will likely improve services and our quality of life.

Making Iraq more democratic would likely make services worse and hurt our quality of life.

Democracy likely to improve minorities’ quality of life

December 15, 2010


44 43 4350

90

414

35

56

38

0

20

40

60

80

100



Most minorities do not believe Iraq is a real democracy

December 15, 2010


2019

33

11

787385

56

0

20

40

60

80

100

Christian Turkmen Sabian Yezidi

Yes - personal/family/someone you know No

Denial of political rights varies among minority groups

Please tell me if you have directly experienced being denied political rights, like voting, if someone

in your family has directly experienced this type of discrimination, if someone you know well - like a

friend, neighbor or coworker - has experienced this type of discrimination, or if no one you know well

has experienced it.

December 15, 2010


45

28

5145

92

719

44

64 67

0

20

40

60

80

100


Right Wrong

Minority groups less optimistic about the country’s direction

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction?

December 15, 2010


58

28 30 28

40

18

68

31

62 64

0

20

40

60

80


Better Worse

Compared to rest of Iraq, minorities see worsening security

Now I will read you a list of issues. Please tell me if you think security is getting better or worse in Iraq.

December 15, 2010


Uncomfortable outside own neighborhood

Please tell me if you have directly experienced feeling uncomfortable outside your neighborhood,

if someone in your family has directly experienced this type of discrimination, if someone you know

well - like a friend, neighbor or coworker - has experienced this type of discrimination, or if no one you

know well has experienced it.

687167

83

312513

27

0

20

40

60

80

100



December 15, 2010


12

72

44

21

88

23

72

54

0

20

40

60

80

100



Physically attacked

Please tell me if you have directly been physically attacked this type of discrimination, if someone in

your family has directly experienced this type of discrimination, if someone you know well - like a

friend, neighbor or coworker - has experienced this type of discrimination, or if no one you know well

has experienced it.

December 15, 2010


64

72

93

72

8899

46

45

98

92

75

86

24

84

36

73

73

26

55

65

0 20 40 60 80 100

Create an autonomous region where (MINORITY

GROUP) can live and govern themselves

Allow local government administration by (MINORITY

GROUP) in (MINORITY GROUP)-dominated areas

Introduce mandatory quotas so the government at all

levels has to hire a certain amount of minorities

Make it illegal to hire for government jobs based on

religion, ethnicity or party membership

Integrate more minorities into the army and police force

Yezidi Sabian Turkmen Christian

I would like to read you a list of some policies the government might enact. After each one, please tell

me whether this policy, if enacted, would make you more likely to support the new government, even if

the political leaders and parties you support are not in the government. [percent approve]

Minority integration into armed forces strongest proposal

December 15, 2010


25

69

54

2631

75 74

45

0

20

40

60

80


Yes No

Many minorities have been discriminated against Generally, speaking, do you feel safe or unsafe in your neighborhood? Have you or anyone in your family been discriminated against due to your ethnicity or religious beliefs?

December 15, 2010


74

33

35

55

28

31

38

18

0 20 40 60 80

Yezidi

Sabian

Turkmen

Christian


And most see conditions for minorities as getting worse Please tell me if you think conditions for minorities are getting better or worse in Iraq.

December 15, 2010


47

58

71

2029

36

2532

0

20

40

60

80


Minority rights are likely to improve in the near future.

Minority rights will never improve in Iraq.

But fewer think that minority rights will never improve

NET +4 +51 +11 +26

December 15, 2010


61

71

61

35

48

28

9

24

0

20

40

60

80


Generally speaking, Iraq is a good place to raise a (MINORITY GROUP) family.

Generally speaking, Iraq is a difficult place to raise a (MINORITY GROUP) family.

Most minorities see Iraq as a good place to raise their family

December 15, 2010


54

6977

15

3628

9

27

0

20

40

60

80


Generally speaking, (MINORITY GROUP) has a good chance at prosperity compared with otherIraqis.

Generally speaking, (MINORITY GROUP) has less of a chance at prosperity compared withother Iraqis.

And have just as good a chance at prosperity as other Iraqis

December 15, 2010


8

10

10

11

12

22

29

36

56

0 20 40 60

Health care

Infrastructure development

Education

Sectarianism

High prices

Corruption

Basic services like electricity and water

Security

Jobs and unemployment

Jobs, security, and services top national concerns

(NATIONAL RESULTS) Now, I am going to read you a list of concerns that some people may have.

Please tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the government to address.

December 15, 2010


40

20

8

50

7354

18

18

45

4055

22

59

13

17

53

17

29

43

20

0 20 40 60 80

Corruption

Basic services like

electricity and water

Sectarianism

Jobs and

unemployment

Security


Jobs, security, and sectarianism top concerns for minorities

(MINORITY GROUP RESULTS) Now, I am going to read you a list of concerns that some people may

have. Please tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the government to address.

December 15, 2010


78

47

71

61

48

42

27

25

25

17

0 20 40 60 80

Yezidi

Sabian

Turkmen

Christian

National


Minorities see more difficulty with jobs Please tell me if you think job opportunities is getting better or worse in Iraq.

NET

-6

-34

-46

-22

-61

December 15, 2010


18

74

50

37

26

77

5648

0

20

40

60

80



Exclusion from job opportunities varies among minorities

Please tell me if you have directly experienced being excluded from a job opportunity, if someone

in your family has directly experienced this type of discrimination, if someone you know well - like a

friend, neighbor, or coworker - has experienced this type of discrimination, or if no one you know well

has experienced it.

December 15, 2010


64

72

93

72

88

75

99

46

45

98

92

86

24

84

36

73

73

26

55

65

0 20 40 60 80 100

Create an autonomous region where (MINORITY

GROUP) can live and govern themselves

Allow local government administration by (MINORITY

GROUP) in (MINORITY GROUP)-dominated areas

Introduce mandatory quotas so the government at all

levels has to hire a certain amount of minorities

Make it illegal to hire for government jobs based on

religion, ethnicity, or party membership

Integrate more minorities into the army and police force


I would like to read you a list of some recommendations some people have made for minorities in Iraq.

After each, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of that recommendation. [percent approve]

Top minority focused proposals deal with fair hiring practices

December 15, 2010


59

13

4542 40

81

53 53

0

20

40

60

80

100



Significant number of minorities not provided gov’t services

Please tell me if you have directly experienced not being provided with government services, if

someone in your family has directly experienced this type of discrimination, if someone you know well -

like a friend, neighbor, or coworker - has experienced this type of discrimination, or if no one you know

well has experienced it.

December 15, 2010


26

64

4654

24

66 67

35

0

20

40

60

80


Approve Disapprove

Most reject autonomous region; split on local gov’t administration

Now for something different. I would like to read you a list of some recommendations some people

have made for minorities in Iraq. After each, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of that

recommendation:

55

72

4553

3636

51

26

0

20

40

60

80


Create an autonomous region where

(MINORITY GROUP) can live and govern

themselves

Allow local government administration by

(MINORITY GROUP) in (MINORITY GROUP)-

dominated areas

December 15, 2010

Report on GQR and NDI Fall 2010 Public Opinion Research

Iraq’s Democracy at a Crossroad

December 15, 2010 Iraq’s Democracy at a Crossroad · 2016. 10. 2. · December 15, 2010 Page 2 |...

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