Dec 2016 - Toronto real estate market charts

Toronto Real Estate

Monthly Charts

Creative Commons license

Scott Ingram

CPA, CA, MBA

Realtor

Chalmers House

by Blok 70

Dec

2016

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

http://www.century21.ca/scott.ingram


https://www.flickr.com/photos/blok70

Toronto Real Estate

Monthly Market Charts

Introduction

You read that sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean??

Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number you’re

seeing due to the 416 or the 905? Is it due to houses or condos? The charts that follow will

add context and perspective to Toronto’s monthly real estate statistics. My focus is the 416, so I pull that out of TREB’s numbers.

I also separate Toronto’s two distinct market segments: Houses and Condos, because you probably care more about one than the other and lumping them together hides a lot of

information. With segmentation and some historical context, I aim to give you a clearer

vision of market movements and trends.

Source for all numbers: Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) “Historic Housing Stats”

$209K YoY

+21.9%

$56K MoM

-4.6%

Toronto Real Estate

Monthly Market Charts

Source for all numbers: Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) “Historic Housing Stats”

- House sales always drop off in December, as winter starts, and the holidays hit

- YTD sales (17.1K) were 1.2% versus 2015,

the highest since 2009- Active listings were down 43% YoY in Dec

and hit a record low for any month

- inventory remained extremely low (MOI hasn’t been above 2.0 in 39 months, 6

months this year were below 1.0)

- New annual record for price appreciation,

highest % increase since 2007

December 2016 highlights

⌂ $65K YoY

+15.9%

$8K MoM

+1.6%

- Condo sales (23.7K) way up over last year (18% YTD) and set an all-time high

- Listings are way down (Dec ‘16 57%

versus 2015)

- More people looking with less condos to

look at led to 11 days less on market and

new record low inventory, with Dec ‘16

MOI at 1.0 (10th consecutive month below 2.0)

- New annual record for price appreciation,

highest % increase since 2009

416 Market Breakdown

@areacode416

1 year ago: Condos 54% / Houses 45%

5 years ago: Condos 52% / Houses 47%

10 years ago: Condos 45% / Houses 53%

As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more

condos are completed, transaction share should keep

shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a “starter

home” and not held onto as long on average as houses.

While houses are only 41% of sales transaction volume, they

account for 64% of dollar volume in the last 12 months.

Detached72%

Semi20%

Row7%

Share of House Transactions - last 12 months

Houses41%

Condos58%

Share of Transactions - last 12 months

Apartment91%

Townhouse9%

Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months

https://twitter.com/areacode416

AVG $1,164K Detached $1,286K / Semi $809K / Row $872K

Dec vs. ‘15: $209K (21.9%)

Dec vs. ‘11: $519K (80%)

5 year avg. annual growth: 12.5%

Clear year-over-year growth is evident each year in every

month, and this year it’s higher than ever. The average

price has grown $17K a month in 2016. #FOMO

416 Average Sold Price(Dollar volume ÷ number of transactions in the month)

@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram

AVG: $476K Condo Apt $467K / Condo Townhouse $570K

Dec vs. ‘15: $65K (15.9%)

Dec vs. ‘11: $128K (37%)

5 year avg. annual growth: 6.5%

Though the top of the condo chart is the bottom of the

house chart, there is still impressive YoY growth and the

average price has grown $5K a month.

958

1,1101,074

1,1561,1701,157

1,1041,096

1,1831,1871,220

1,164

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

$000s Houses (Det & Semi & Row)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

421

444

428

452 456 459

438

459 462

474483

476

300

350

400

450

500


$000s Condos (Apt & Town)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



416 Residential Sales Volume(number of sold transactions in the month)


Dec vs. ‘15: 8.5%

YTD vs. ‘15: 1.2% (vs. Prior 5 years: 4.0%)

With a more finite supply, House transactions don’t vary

much from year to year (the prior 5 years stayed within 4%

of the average 5 year volume). Sales for the year were

17,050 — the highest since 2009 but far off the record 20.4K

in 2007.

Dec vs. ‘15: 13.9%

YTD vs. ‘15: 17.8% (vs. Prior 5 years: 32.5%)

Resale Condo supply keeps growing as new ones are built,

and they are an option for people priced out of houses. As

such, each month in 2016 saw record transactions, total

transactions were up 18% over last year and 33% over the

previous 5 years’ average.

672

1162

1513

1889

2102 2066

13201162

1508 15341405

717

0

1,000

2,000

3,000


Houses (Det & Semi & Row)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1000

1609

2066

2297

2468 2472

21342217

20392143

1942

1357

0

1,000

2,000

3,000


Condos (Apt & Town)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



416 Active Listings(snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month)


Dec vs. ‘15: 43%

YTD vs. ‘15: 30% (vs. Prior 5 years: 40%)

Here’s the big issue with the market: the supply of listings.

The last 9 months have had only 57-70% of last year’s listings

December’s 599 was the first time under 1,000 (stats go

back to Jan ‘96). Demand was slightly up, so more buyers

are competing for fewer listings.

Dec vs. ‘15: 57%

YTD vs. ‘15: 30% (vs. Prior 5 years: 38%)

Condo supply as a % of last year has grown worse every

month this year, and by the end of the year, listings were at

only 43% of the 2015 level. The 1,397 active listings at

month end were the lowest month since December 2000

(192 months).

1168 1300 1392 14521633

14561283

1119

1629 16121307

5990

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000



2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

34913718

40284177 4249

4041

3608

3134 31112791

2203

1397

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


Condos (Apt & Town)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



416 Months Of Inventory(active listings at month end ÷ sales for month)


Dec vs. ‘15: 0.5 months (38%)

Dec vs. Prior 5 years: 1.1 months (56%)

Supply and demand influences together on one chart. A

“balanced market” is 5-7 months of inventory. Toronto has

been in a “seller’s market” for at least 20 years and the

trend continued to get more extreme in 2016 with 11 new

record monthly lows.

Dec vs. ‘15: 1.7 months (62%)

Dec vs. Prior 5 years: 2.5 months (70%)

Condo MOI has been below 2.0 months for 10 consecutive

months, the longest time it has remained below 2.0, and

first time under since Dec ‘09. The 1.0 months in December

is third record low in a row. and this is the closest Condo

and House MOI has been since Sep ‘09.

1.7

1.10.9

0.8 0.8 0.71.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0



2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

3.5

2.3

1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.71.4 1.5

1.31.1 1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0


Condos (Apt & Town)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



416 Average Days On Market(Days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month)


Dec vs. ‘15: 6.8 days (28%)

Dec vs. Prior 5 years: 7.9 days (30%)

With an extreme seller’s market and a low inventory of

listings, houses that are on the market are being snapped

up quickly. 2016 saw a record 10 months with 15 DOM or

lower (the previous record was 5 last year).

Dec vs. ‘15: 11.0 days (32%)

Dec vs. Prior 5 years: 13.1 days (36%)

More buyers looking at less listings is speeding up the sales

of condos too. Ten years ago the average condo DOM

was 42 DOM, and 5 years ago it was 33. In recent months,

condos have been selling in 2/3 the time it took last year.

24

15 13

11 12 10

13 15

12 12 14

18

0

10

20

30

40

50



2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

39

31

24 23 22 22 23

24 23

21 21

24

0

10

20

30

40

50


Condos (Apt & Town)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



Pace of price growth(30 day rate)

*Based on price changes since December 2015 (i.e. 2016 YTD).

⌂Last 3 months ($6,100) $4,500

Last 6 months $1,100 $2,800

Last 12 months $17,200 $4,500

Prior 12 months $8,600 $3,600

Days 1 10

Hours 17 14

Minutes 59 35

Total Hours 41:59 134:35

⌂Price growth per month: Time per $1,000 increase*:

Houses – 2016 house prices are up $209K over the December 2015 average price of $955K, but $155K of that increase

came in January and February, so the rate has slowed down. Over the last 5 years, house prices have climbed at $8.6K a

month, coincidentally matching the 2015 rate.

Condos – 2016 condo prices are up $65K over the December 2015 average price of $410, with $34K of that increase

came in January and February. The last 5 months were all up versus the prior month, so there is momentum. The 5 year

pace for condo price growth is $2.1K a month.

416 Annual Price Increases(December average price compared to December of prior year)


20 year House performance: 18 years 2 years. Avg $46K. 20 year CAGR (as at Oct) is 6.9%.

20 year Condo performance: 18 years 2 years.. Avg $17K. 20 year CAGR (as at Oct) is 4.4%.

Largest ever annual $ gain for houses and condos. Largest % increases for houses since 2007, and condos since 2009.

15 19 46

(11)

27 36

2

49

10 12

130

(51)

57 40

22 33

117

54

105

209

10 2 19 12 20 12 3

19 7 11

42

(34)

60

20 4

(6)

29 17 22

65

(100)

(50)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1997 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

$000s $ IncreasesHouses Condos

6%

7%

17%

(3%)

9%

11%

1%

13%

2% 3%

29%

(9%)

11%7%

3% 5%

17%

7%

12%

22%

7%

2%

12%

7%

11%

6%2% 9% 3% 4%

17%

(12%)

23%

6%1%

(2%)

9%

4% 6%

16%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1997 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

% IncreasesHouses Condos



Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.

Having built up 20 years of trust as an accountant in Toronto's art and music communities,

Scott combines his analytical skills and business savvy with his hometown knowledge and

passion to help artists and professionals alike find their next home. Scott works with the

venerable CENTURY 21 brand at the Regal Realty Inc. brokerage on Queen St. West.


Click for more fresh statistics and insight on Toronto real estate:



Dec 2016 - Toronto real estate market charts

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