Debunking the Retail Apocalypse - Centromarca€¦ · Debunking the Retail Apocalypse Authors Lee...
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Debunking the Retail Apocalypse Authors Lee Holman Greg Buzek August, 2017
Transcript of Debunking the Retail Apocalypse - Centromarca€¦ · Debunking the Retail Apocalypse Authors Lee...
Debunking the Retail Apocalypse
AuthorsLee Holman
Greg Buzek
August, 2017
Thank You to our Research Sponsors
CONTENTS
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Introduction
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Into the Data – Some Definitions
BUSINESS MARKETINGPRESENTATION SLIDES
What is the background for the negative narrative?
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The Start of the Retail Apocalypse Narrative
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➢Amazon Becomes the Villaino
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Key Trends & Drivers
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Figure 1 – Historical Fed Rates
Source – Federal Reserve – Board of Governors'
Figure 2 – Retail Square Footage – Global Comparisons
Source – Cowan Research
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Key Trends & Drivers, con’t
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Key Trends & Drivers, con’t
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1996 2015 Real $
Growth
’96 -’15
%
Income
Growth
Lowest 8,595 12,457 3,862 44.9%
Second 21,097 32,631 11,534 54.7%
Third 35,486 56,832 21,346 60.2%
Fourth 54,922 92,031 37,109 67.6%
Highest 115,514 202,366 86,852 75.2%
Sources: BLS, Census Bureau Historical Income Tables H1/H3
Figure 3 – Household Income by Quintile
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Shrinking Middle Class
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Source: Pew Research Center
Figure 5 – Share of US Income held by the Middle Class has PlungedFigure 4 – The Middle Class is Shrinking
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Debt and Other Issues
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Figure 6 – Student Loans a Big Part of Household Debt
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bloomberg
BUSINESS MARKETINGPRESENTATION SLIDES
What is Really Happening?
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The Real Story
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Retail is Growing, Not Declining
Source: IHL Group, Company Reports
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Department Stores
Bar / Restaurants
Fast Food
Food / Grocery
Drug Stores
Specialty Hardgoods
Specialty Softgoods
Mass Merchandisers
Convenience Stores
Superstores/WH Clubs
% Net Opening Stores vs Net Closing
% Banners Closing Stores % Banners Gaining Stores
Banners opening vs closing stores
For each company
closing stores
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are opening stores
Source: IHL Group, Company Reports
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Banners opening vs closing stores
1.0 is breakeven number of opening vs closing
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Source: IHL Group, Company Reports
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Retail Store Count Growth
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Source: IHL Group, Company Reports
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Store Count Decline
Source: IHL Group, Company Reports
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Restaurant Count Growth
Source: IHL Group, Company Reports
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Restaurant Count Decline
Source: IHL Group, Company Reports
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Deeper Dive – Drug and Cosmetics
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Sources: US Census on Retail Trade, IHL Group, Company Reports
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Deeper Dive – General Merchandise
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Sources: US Census on Retail Trade, IHL Group, Company Reports
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Deeper Dive – Softgoods
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Sources: US Census on Retail Trade, IHL Group, Company Reports
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Deeper Dive – Hardgoods
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Sources: US Census on Retail Trade, IHL Group, Company Reports
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Deeper Dive – Restaurants
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Sources: US Census on Retail Trade, IHL Group, Company Reports
BUSINESS MARKETINGPRESENTATION SLIDES
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6 Things Retailers Must Do
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Figure 7 – Leaders vs Average Retailers on IT Spend Growth
Source: 2017 RIS News / IHL Group Store Systems Study
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6 Things Retailers Must Do
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Source: 2017 RIS News/IHL Store Systems Study
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Final Thoughts
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* US Census Monthly Retail Trade 1992-2016 – Non-Adjusted, Retail and Food Service Sales Total
BUSINESS MARKETINGPRESENTATION SLIDES
Methodology
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How We Got Here
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IHL Group Enterprise License
and Fair Use Agreement
Thank You
