Debriefing Fishbanks

Fall 2009

1

Reflecting on the Game

• Video – Fish Banks game• Teams’ Performances

– What happened and why? – Alternative strategies

• What can be done?

2

Summary of Ocean’s Behavior

FISH BOATS CATCH

123456789

10

0

YEAR

INDEX

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

FISH CATCHSHIPS

4

Typical Game Behavior

FishShips8

6

4

2

0

I N D E X

Catch

Ships

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

YEAR

5

Typical Game Behavior – Fleet

6

Typical Game Behavior – Catch

7

Typical Game Behavior – Fish Population

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7YEAR

FISH

Deep Sea

Coastal

8

Aggressive Strategies

“Purchase many boats until average fish productivity starts to decline. When fish productivity goes down, fish other areas.”

“Increase fleet size as long as yields are stable.”

“Buy boats early in the game and then sell them toward the end. Catch as many fish as possible at the beginning of the period”

9

Conservative Strategies

“We want to keep our fleet at this constant level and disperse it so as not to deplete fish resources in the deep sea and coast. “

The Fisheries System: Fish

TOTALCATCH

FISH

DENSITY

REGENERATION

+-+-, +(+-,)

The Fisheries System: Catch

PROFIT

SHIPS

INVESTMENT

DESIREDGROWTH

INCOME

FISHPRICE

TOTALCATCH

FISH

DENSITY

CATCH PERSHIPOPERATINGCOSTS

PURCHASE ANDCONSTRUCTION

COSTS

-+-

++

++

++ +++

-(-)

(-)(+)

CATCH

+

The Fisheries System: Investment

PROFIT

SHIPS

INVESTMENT

DESIREDGROWTH

INCOME

FISHPRICE

TOTALCATCH

OPERATINGCOSTS

PURCHASE ANDCONSTRUCTION

COSTS

-+-

++

++

++ +

(-)(+)

(+)

+,-

The Fisheries System Structure

PROFIT

SHIPS

INVESTMENT

DESIREDGROWTH

INCOME

FISHPRICE

TOTALCATCH

FISH

DENSITY

CATCH PERSHIP

REGENERATION

OPERATINGCOSTS

PURCHASE ANDCONSTRUCTION

COSTS

-+-

++

++

++ +++

+-+-, +

(-)(+-,)

(-)(+)

(+)

+,-

Does fish depletion happen in real life?

• Pacific sardine fishery (late 40s)

• Peruvian anchovy fishery (early 70s)

• North Sea Herring (1970s)• Georges Bank Cod fish (early 90s)

• Pacific salmon fishery (2008)• Atlantic bluefin tuna (2008)• 2003 study suggests:

– 29% of all fished species have collapsed; catch 90% below historic levels

– Total world fish catch depleted by 2048

Dietary Importance of Fish Population

At present, fish comprise 34 percent of the animal-

protein for the world's population; in developing

nations, more than 40 percent.

Source: "Assaulting the Seas: Rising Human Tide Overwhelms Oceans," The ZPG Reporter, July 1991.

Other Importance of Fish Population

Export earnings for poor nations

Source of jobs and income

Foundation for the culture of many regions and towns

Support for a diverse ecosystem

Examples of Collapse

• Drinking too much alcohol

• Cutting too many trees

• Abusing trust and good will - phone marketing

• Relying on debt

• Building too many offices or residences

• Fabricating financial accounts

• Depleting ozone layer, ground water, agricultural soils

18

Fishbanks: Causes of collapse?

• Misinformation issues» Difficulty to assess the evolution of the fish

population» Assumptions of stability» What happened? We sent ships but there is no

catch?

• Delay in control response» Feasibility of a unilateral control measure? » Lack of trust?

• Limited time horizon» 8 year game

19

Tragedy of the Commons

• Popularized by Hardin (1968)

The model:• Private gains hold social or ecological costs• Benefits gained by individual, costs borne by

all• Incentive to put more cattle on the commons

as long as personal gain is more than personal cost

• Common-pool resources subject to ruin

20

What can be done?

• Partition the seas

• Establish quotas

• Farm fish

• Change consumption preferences

• Limit ship fleets, technology

• Develop better methods for stock assessment

• Change social values and economic incentives

• Understand the role of technology

Impact of Technology on Ship Effectiveness

0 MAXIMUM0

HIGH TECHNOLOGY

LOWTECHNOLOGY

CATCHPER

SHIP-YEAR

FISH DENSITY

-

-

-

-

-

22

Is self-regulation feasible?

• Responsible care• ISO 14001, 14004• Global Reporting Initiative