Deaths from smoking in the United Kingdom. Deaths from smoking in the United Kingdom Particular...

Deaths from smoking

in the United Kingdom

Deaths from smokingin the United Kingdom

• Particular emphasis is given to the number of deathsin middle age (defined as ages 35 to 69)

• Available on www.deathsfromsmoking.net

• This presentation provides estimates of the numberof deaths caused by smoking in the United Kingdom

Source of data: “Mortality from Smoking in Developed Countries, 1950–2000”

• Uses WHO mortality data for lung cancer and for other diseases, and UN population data

www.deathsfromsmoking.net

• Updated edition of a 1994 book, authored by aninternational team of scientists:

– Richard Peto, Professor of Medical Statistics, University of Oxford

– Alan Lopez, Professor of Medical Statistics, University of Queensland

– Jillian Boreham, Senior Research Fellow, University of Oxford

– Michael Thun, Chief of Epidemiology, American Cancer Society

Deaths from smoking, 1950 to 2000

• About half (3.2 million) of them were still in middle agewhen they died

• This was about one in three of all the deaths inmiddle age during this period (3.2 million out ofthe 10.3 million deaths at ages 35-69)


United Kingdom

• About 6.3 million people died from smoking during this50-year period in the United Kingdom

Annual deaths from smoking

• About 32,000 die in middle age from smoking

• Many of those killed in middle age would have lived on for 10, 20, 30 or more good years

• About 21 years of life are lost, on average, by those killed in middle age by smoking


United Kingdom, year 2000

• Smoking kills about 115,000 people a year in the United Kingdom

Smoking causes about six times as many deaths as all non-medical causes put together



19,530*non-medical

Murder / assault FallsSuicide DrowningRoad accidents PoisoningPlane crashes FiresTrain crashes Floods / stormsAccidents at work Other natural disastersAccidents at home Other accidents

*in year 2000

115,000smoking

Smoking kills 115,000 people a year,from many different diseases



*includes 30,000 (89%) ofthe 33,769 lung cancer deaths

43,000 cancer*

31,000 vascular(heart disease,stroke and other diseases of the arteries and veins)

30,000respiratory

11,000 other

151,000total cancer deaths

About one in four of all cancer deathsis due to smoking



43,000 (28%) from smoking

78,000male


73,000female


Male deaths in middle age from smoking

• This pattern is seen first in middle age, then in old age

• The next three slides concentrate on male deathsin middle age


• The main pattern of increase and, eventually,decrease in premature deaths from smoking is at a more advanced stage among men than among women

About one in four of all deaths inmiddle-aged men is due to smoking*



*21,000 (25%) of the83,000 deaths at ages 35-69

Of 100 men aged 35 years …



*risks at year 2000death rates for ages 35-69

• 25 die in middle age*

25%

• 6 of these 25 deaths are from smoking

6

Male death in middle age: changing hazards*


United Kingdom, 1950-2000

*risks at period-specificdeath rates for ages 35-69

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

44%

43%

42%

43%

42%

39%

37%

35%

31%

28%

25%

All causes15

18

19

20

20

17

16

14

11

8

6

Smoking

Summary for the whole population

• Smoking kills about 115,000 men and women every year

• About 32,000 die in middle age from smoking

• Smoking causes about six times as many deaths as all non-medical causes put together

• About one in four of all cancer deaths is due to smoking



In the United Kingdom:

Messages for the individual smoker

• Those killed in middle age lose many years

• Stopping smoking works– Even in early middle age, those who stop (before they have

lung cancer or some other fatal disease) avoid most of their risk of being killed by tobacco

– Stopping before middle age works even better


• The risk is big: about half are killed

Deaths from smoking: an electronic resourcewww.deathsfromsmoking.netPublished by International Union Against Cancer (UICC), Geneva: Switzerland, 2006

Funded byClinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit (CTSU), University of OxfordInternational Union Against Cancer (UICC)Fogarty International Center, US NIHUK Medical Research CouncilCancer Research UK

Project team Richard Peto, Judith Watt, Jillian BorehamProject management Sinéad JonesAdvice and support Steve Woodward, Konrad Jamrozik, Lesley Walker, Trish CotterDesign bwa-design.co.uk

Deaths from smoking in the United Kingdom. Deaths from smoking in the United Kingdom Particular...

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