Dealing with the Trilemma - Federal Reserve Bank of … · Dealing with the Trilemma Emmanuel...
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Dealing with the Trilemma
Emmanuel Farhi, HarvardIván Werning, MIT
BU/Boston Fed Conference on Macro-Finance Linkages
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Trilemma
1. Fixed exchange rates2. Independent monetary policy3. Free capital flows
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John Maynard Keynes
“In my view the whole management of the domestic economy depends on being free to have the appropriate rate of interest without reference to the rates prevailing elsewhere in the world. Capital controls is a corollary to this.”
“[...] control of capital movements, both inward and outward, should be a permanent feature of the post-war system.”
“What used to be a heresy is now endorsed as orthodoxy.”
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IMF’s Blessing“[...] our views are evolving. In the IMF, in particular, while the tradition had long been that capital controls should not be part of the toolbox, we are now more open to their use in appropriate circumstances [...]”
DSK, March 2011
“[...] while the issue of capital controls is fraught with ideological overtones, it is fundamentally a technical one, indeed a highly technical one. "
Olivier Blanchard, June 2011
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GoalOptimal monetary policy: well developed theoryDo the same for capital controls
nature of shockspersistence of shocksprice rigidityopennesscoordination
Emphasishot money, sudden stops (volatile capital flows)risk premium shocks
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Related Literature
Calvo, MendozaCaballero-Krishnamurthy, Caballero-LorenzoniKorinek, Jeanne, Bianchi, Bianchi-Mendoza, Schmitt-Grohe-Uribe Mundel, Fleming, Gali-Monacelli
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Setup
Continuum of small open economies fixed exchange ratedifferent shocks
i 2 [0, 1]
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HouseholdsFocus on one countryRepresentative household maximizes
subject to
1X
t=0
�t
"C1��
t
1� �� N1+�
t
1 + �
#
PtCt +Dt+1 +
Z 1
0Ei,tD
it+1di WtNt +⇧t
+ Tt + (1 + it�1)Dt + (1 + ⌧t�1)
Z 1
0Ei
t(1 + iit�1)Dit
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Differentiated GoodsConsumption aggregates
Ct =
"(1 � a)
1h C
h�1h
H,t + a1h C
h�1h
F,t
# hh�1
CH,t =
✓Z 1
0CH,t(j)
e�1e dj
◆ ee�1 CF,t =
✓Z 1
0C
g�1g
i,t di◆ g
g�1
Ci,t =
✓Z 1
0Ci,t(j)
e�1e dj
◆ ee�1
(country i and variety j)
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Price Indices
Differentiated Goods
Pt = [(1 � a)P1�hH,t + aP1�h
F,t ]1
1�h
PH,t =
✓Z 1
0PH,t(j)1�edj
◆ 11�e PF,t =
✓Z 1
0P1�g
i,t di◆ 1
1�g
Pi,t =
✓Z 1
0Pi,t(j)1�edj
◆ 11�e
(country i and variety j)
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LOP, TOT and RERLaw of one price
Terms of trade
Real exchange rate
St =PF,tPH,t
PF,t = EtP⇤t
Qt =EtP⇤
tPt
=PF,tPt
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Firms
Each varietyproduced monopolistically technology
Yt(j) = AtNt(j)
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UIPNo arbitrage (UIP)
Euler
b
✓Ct+1
Ct
◆�s
=1 + it
1 + pt+1
1 + it = (1 + i⇤t )Et+1
Et(1 + tt)
b
✓C⇤t+1C⇤
t
◆�s
=1 + i⇤t
1 + p⇤t+1
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UIPNo arbitrage (UIP)
Euler
b
✓Ct+1
Ct
◆�s
=1 + it
1 + pt+1
1 + it = (1 + i⇤t )Et+1
Et(1 + tt)
b
✓C⇤t+1C⇤
t
◆�s
=1 + i⇤t
1 + p⇤t+1
(Backus-Smith)Ct = QtC⇤t Q
1st
✓Qt+1
Qt
◆s
= 1 + tt
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Timing
Start at steady state t=-1At t=0
hit by unexpected shock (path for future)no insurance (incomplete markets)
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Shocks1. Productivity2. Export demand 3. Foreign consumption (world interest rate)4. Net Foreign Asset
5. Risk Premium (later)
{C⇤t }
{At}{⇤t}
NFA0
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Pricing
1. Flexible Prices2. Rigid Prices3. One-Period Ahead Sticky Prices4. Calvo Pricing
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Flexible Prices
Qt =h(1 � a) (St)
h�1 + ai 1
h�1
Nt =YtAt
C�st S�1
t Qt =e
e � 11 + tL
AtNf
t
max
1X
t=0
�t
"C1��
t
1� �� N1+�
t
1 + �
#
0 =•
Ât=0
btC⇤�st
⇣S�1
t Yt �Q�1t Ct
⌘
Yt = (1 � a)Ct
✓QtSt
◆�h
+ aLtC⇤t Sg
t
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without capital controls, i.e. constant
non Cole-Obstfeld capital controls (Costinot-Lorenzoni-Werning)
Proposition (C-O, flex price).No capital controls at optimum.
Qt
Flexible Prices
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Rigid Prices
Qt =h(1 � a) (St)
h�1 + ai 1
h�1
Nt =YtAt
C�st S�1
t Qt =e
e � 11 + tL
AtNf
t
max
1X
t=0
�t
"C1��
t
1� �� N1+�
t
1 + �
#
0 =•
Ât=0
btC⇤�st
⇣S�1
t Yt �Q�1t Ct
⌘
Yt = (1 � a)Ct
✓QtSt
◆�h
+ aLtC⇤t Sg
t
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Rigid Prices
Qt =h(1 � a) (St)
h�1 + ai 1
h�1
Nt =YtAt
max
1X
t=0
�t
"C1��
t
1� �� N1+�
t
1 + �
#
0 =•
Ât=0
btC⇤�st
⇣S�1
t Yt �Q�1t Ct
⌘
Yt = (1 � a)Ct
✓QtSt
◆�h
+ aLtC⇤t Sg
t
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Rigid Prices
Nt =YtAt
max
1X
t=0
�t
"C1��
t
1� �� N1+�
t
1 + �
#
1 =h(1 � a) (1 )h�1 + a
i 1h�1
0 =•
Ât=0
btC⇤�st
⇣1 Yt � 1 Ct
⌘
Yt = (1 � a)Ct
✓11
◆�h
+ aLtC⇤t 1g
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Rigid Prices
Nt =YtAt
max
1X
t=0
�t
"C1��
t
1� �� N1+�
t
1 + �
#
0 =•
Ât=0
btC⇤�st (Yt � Ct)
Yt = (1 � a)Ct + aLtC⇤t
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Rigid Prices
Nt =YtAt
max
1X
t=0
�t
"C1��
t
1� �� N1+�
t
1 + �
#
0 =•
Ât=0
btC⇤�st (Yt � Ct)
Yt = (1 � a)Ct + aLtC⇤t
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Rigid Prices
Nt =YtAt
max
1X
t=0
�t
"C1��
t
1� �� N1+�
t
1 + �
#
0 =•
Ât=0
btC⇤�st (Yt � Ct)
Yt = (1 � a)Ct + aLtC⇤t
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Rigid Prices
Nt =YtAt
max
1X
t=0
�t
"C1��
t
1� �� N1+�
t
1 + �
#
0 =•
Ât=0
btC⇤�st (Yt � Ct)
Proposition. Tax on inflows has sign...1. same 2. opposite 3. opposite4. zero for NFA
At+1 �At
⇤t+1 � ⇤t
C⇤t+1 � C⇤
t
Yt = (1 � a)Ct + aLtC⇤t
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One Period Sticky, Transitory Shocks
N0 =Y0A0
flexible price value function
NFA0 = �C⇤�s0 (Y0 � C0) + bNFA1
max
Y0
,C0
,W1
"C1�s
0
1 � s�
N1+f0
1 + f+ bV(NFA
1
)
#
Y0 = (1 � a)C0 + aL0C⇤0
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One Period Sticky, Transitory Shocks
N0 =Y0A0
flexible price value function
Proposition.Positive initial tax on inflows
1. decrease in productivity2. increase in exports 3. increase in foreign consumption
⇤0
A0
C⇤0
NFA0 = �C⇤�s0 (Y0 � C0) + bNFA1
max
Y0
,C0
,W1
"C1�s
0
1 � s�
N1+f0
1 + f+ bV(NFA
1
)
#
Y0 = (1 � a)C0 + aL0C⇤0
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One Period Sticky, Permanent Shocks
harder: shocks now affect V()
price adjustment makes permanent shocks more similar to temporary effects...... future shocks matter less (news shocks)
Proposition.Positive initial tax on inflows:
1. decrease in productivity2. increase in exports3. increase in foreign consumption 4. increase in wealth
LA
C⇤
NFA0
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cH
cF
openness
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cH
cF
openness
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cH
cF
openness
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cH
cF
openness
capitalcontrols
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Role of OpennessClosed economy limit
Perfect stabilization?No intervention: NoOptimal Capital Controls: Maybe
Depends ontype of shock: risk premium yesform of price rigidity
a ! 0
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Calvo PricingPoisson opportunity to reset price
cost of inflationcapital controls affect inflation...... prudential interventions?
Continuous time: convenient, initial prices givenCole-Obstfeld case: Log-linearize around symmetric steady state
� = � = ⌘ = 1
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Planning Problem
pH,t = rpH,t � kyt � laqt
˙yt = (1 � a)(it � i⇤t )� pH,t + i⇤t � rt
˙qt = it � i⇤tZ
e�rt qtdt = 0
minZ
e�rthapp2
H,t + y2t + aqq2
t
idt
y0 = (1 � a)q0 + s0
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Planning Problem
pH,t = rpH,t � kyt � laqt
˙yt = (1 � a)(it � i⇤t )� pH,t + i⇤t � rt
˙qt = it � i⇤tZ
e�rt qtdt = 0
minZ
e�rthapp2
H,t + y2t + aqq2
t
idt
y0 = (1 � a)q0�s0
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Risk Premia ShockRisk Premia ...
natural allocation...appreciation, current account deficit
equilibrium with no capital controls...(smaller) appreciation via inflation(same) current account deficitoutput and consumption boom
it = i⇤t + t + ⌧tyt < 0
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Risk Premia Shock
0 1 2 3 4 5�0.4�0.3�0.2�0.1
0q
0 1 2 3 4 5�0.2�0.1
00.10.2
y
0 1 2 3 4 5�0.4�0.2
00.20.4
pH
0 1 2 3 4 5�0.1�0.05
00.05
0.1nx and nx
0 1 2 3 4 5�0.2�0.1
00.10.2
s and s
0 1 2 3 4 50
0.050.1
0.150.2
t = i � i⇤ � y
Figure 7: Mean-reverting risk premium shock, a = 0.4.
85
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Rigid Prices
Stabilize CA: constantLean against the wind......more effective when economy more closed
Proposition.
1
⌧t = �1+⇥(1��)
1+⇥
1� ↵+ �✓1��
t
nxt/nxt = 1�1+⇥(1��)
1+⇥
1� �+ �✓1��
1
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Proposition.
Closed Economy Limit
Lean against the wind (one-for-one)Perfectly stabilize economy......not true for other shocks
tt = �yt
yt = pH,t = 0
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Risk Premium ↵ = 0.4
0 1 2 3 4 5�0.06
�0.04
�0.02
0
q
0 1 2 3 4 50
0.02
0.04
0.06y
0 1 2 3 4 50
0.05
0.1
pH
0 1 2 3 4 5�0.02�0.01
00.010.02
nx and nx
0 1 2 3 4 5�0.05
0
0.05
s and s
0 1 2 3 4 5�0.05
0
0.05
t = i � i⇤ � y
0 1 2 3 4 5�0.06
�0.04
�0.02
0
q
0 1 2 3 4 50
0.02
0.04
0.06y
0 1 2 3 4 50
0.05
0.1
pH
0 1 2 3 4 5�0.02�0.01
00.010.02
nx and nx
0 1 2 3 4 5�0.05
0
0.05
s and s
0 1 2 3 4 5�0.05
0
0.05
t = i � i⇤ � y
Figure 3: Mean-reverting risk premium shock, a = 0.4 (top) and a = 0.1 (bottom).
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Risk Premium ↵ = 0.1
0 1 2 3 4 5�0.06
�0.04
�0.02
0
q
0 1 2 3 4 50
0.02
0.04
0.06y
0 1 2 3 4 50
0.05
0.1
pH
0 1 2 3 4 5�0.02�0.01
00.010.02
nx and nx
0 1 2 3 4 5�0.05
0
0.05
s and s
0 1 2 3 4 5�0.05
0
0.05
t = i � i⇤ � y
0 1 2 3 4 5�0.06
�0.04
�0.02
0
q
0 1 2 3 4 50
0.02
0.04
0.06y
0 1 2 3 4 50
0.05
0.1
pH
0 1 2 3 4 5�0.02�0.01
00.010.02
nx and nx
0 1 2 3 4 5�0.05
0
0.05
s and s
0 1 2 3 4 5�0.05
0
0.05
t = i � i⇤ � y
Figure 3: Mean-reverting risk premium shock, a = 0.4 (top) and a = 0.1 (bottom).
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Proposition.
Flexible Exchange Rate
Lean against the wind... ...less than with fixed exchange rateNew: stabilize nominal exchange rate
tt = �ayyt �la
aqappH,t
pH,t 6= 0
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CoordinationUp to now...
single country taking rest of world as givenNow, look at world equilibria...
without coordinationwith coordination
Beggar thy neighbor?
Coordination on what? Here...Fix labor tax at some levelCoordinate capital taxes
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Two cases:uncoordinated tax on labor (higher) coordinated tax on labor (lower)
Terms of trade manipulation...planner at uncoordinated tax: wants more outputstandard “inflation bias”
Coordination
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Capital controlssame with or without coordination!
Gains from coordination...transition: uncoordinated capital controls restricts feasible aggregateslong-run: coincide
Overall: limited role for coordination
Coordination (Small )↵
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Conclusions
Tight characterization of optimal capital controls...
nature of shocksopennesspersistenceprice stickinesscoordination
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Eurozone Interest Rates
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Eurozone Trade Balance
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Eurozone Current Account
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Recent Examples33
Figure 2. Evolution of Capital Controls
Sources: AREAER database; and authors’ calculations. Note: For indices of inflow and outflow controls, higher values indicate that the transactions are subject to more restrictions. For the tax and URR indices, higher values indicate that the regulation applies to more types of inflows.
Brazil
2000:01 2002:01 2004:01 2006:01 2008:01-15
-10
-5
0
5
Colombia
2000:01 2002:01 2004:01 2006:01 2008:01-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Thailand
2000:01 2002:01 2004:01 2006:01 2008:01-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Price-based inflow controlsOther inflow controlsOutflow controls
Korea
2000:01 2002:01 2004:01 2006:01 2008:01-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Source: Baba and Kokenyne (2011; IMF)
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Recent Examples
Source: Forbes et al (2011)
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