DCC + Nestle
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TOCQUEVILLEVALUEEUROPE
Ourbirthday,guidingprinciplesandholdings
DON FITZGERALD, CFAFund Manager
7th Annual Value Investing Seminar Trani Italy July 13 14 2010
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Trani, Italy July 13-14, 2010
TocquevilleValueEurope10yearanniversary
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TocquevilleValueEurope10yearanniversary
No. 2 of 67 funds marketed in France - European Equities category
Compared to MSCI EUROPE total return
3Source:Europerformance.Pastperformanceisnoindicationastofutureperformanceandisnotconstantovertime
Compared to MSCI EUROPE total return
TocquevilleValueEurope10yearanniversary
With volatility well below the market...
Volatility Tocqueville Value Europe MSCI Europey Europe
1 month 16.64 21.52
1 year 16.19 19.87
3 years 19.18 20.85y
5 years 16.11 17.49
Since inception 14 99 17 16Since inception 14.99 17.16
4Source:Europerformance at31/05/10,pastperformanceisnoindicationastofutureperformanceandisnotconstantovertime
OurValueInvestingPrinciples
Independence of thoughtIndependenceofthought
Contrarianstance
Evaluate fundamentalstodetermineintrinsicvalue
Investwithmarginofsafetytointrinsicvalue
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OurValueInvestingPrinciples
Independenceofthought
Confidentinownjudgement
Mindset buyasmallpartofabusiness
Ignoremarketsnoise,capitaliseonoccasionalinefficiencies
Indexnotafactorinportfolioconstruction
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DCC - Buying where others exit
DCC Buyingwhereothersexit
DCC 1.5 Bn market cap / Dublin Listed5 divisions 21 operating businesses
Energy EnvironmentalSerCom Healthcare Food & Beverage
Distributor of IT & Distributor of Distributor of
Recycling and waste
Distributor of Oil & LPG
consumer electronics p
Distributor of consumables to
hospitals ghealth food &
beveragesmanagement
services
13%
OperatingProfitSplit 18%
13%
UK
Ireland
Restofworld
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69%
Source : Company accounts, Tocqueville estimates
DCC Buyingwhereothersexit
Strategy
Building leading positions
Focus on high returns on capital
Financial discipline Financial discipline
Contrarian perspective - Invest capital where others exit
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DCC Buyingwhereothersexit
Reasonstoavoid
Fortopdowninvestor Foreventdrivenhedgefund Exposed to weak economies
Conglomerate structure
Limited Catalysts
Inefficient capital structureg
Difficult to forecast
p
Helped by favourable weather
Under-researched
Boring
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DCC Buyingwhereothersexit
Whystayinvested?
Management - careful steward of shareholders capital and owners
Portfolio optimization may continue
Favourable environment for bolt-on acquisitions
Solid balance sheet
Defensive business model basic needs, below the radar business
Track record solid EPS growth 10% last 10 years11Source : Company accounts, Tocqueville estimates
DCC Buyingwhereothersexit
Whystayinvested?
Valuation Modest
EV ca. 10x Net Operating profit after taxes FCF yield before acquisitions to Enterprise Value ca. 10%
Growing (5 years CAGR 14%) stable dividend (3.6% yield)
Limited risks Weather related, GBP/EUR
Mini Catalysts Portfolio changes, Acquisitions & earnings upgrades
12Source : Company accounts, Tocqueville estimates
OurValueInvestingPrinciples
Contrarian stance
Bewareofpassingfads Becountercyclical
Our hunting ground:
Profit warnings Profitwarnings Turnaroundsituations Fallen angels Fallenangels Limitedanalystcoverage Disappointing IPOs DisappointingIPOs Companybreakups Inefficient balance sheets
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Inefficientbalancesheets
KESA The good, the bad & the ugly
KESA thegood,thebad&theugly
European consumer electronics (number 3 in Europe) and household European consumer electronics (number 3 in Europe) and household appliance retailing group
London-listed
Sales - GBP 5Bn; EV - GBP 800m
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Kingfisher spin-off 2003
KESA thegood,thebad&theugly
Thegood Darty France
Market leader -13% market share S i d i b d Service-driven brand
Well located, small stores
Generates over 100% of the group EBIT
EBIT margin ca 5% (pre crisis ca 7%) EBIT margin ca. 5% (pre-crisis ca. 7%)
Own real estate of 1/3 of stores
Grows by internet penetration & share gains from independents
We estimate the value of the Darty retail business alone at ca GBP 1 Bn vs
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We estimate the value of the Darty retail business alone at ca. GBP 1 Bn vscurrent EV of GBP 800m
Source : Company accounts, Tocqueville estimates
KESA thegood,thebad&theugly
Thegoodcontinued
Profitable established operations in:Profitable established operations in:
Belgium, Netherlands, Czech Republic (each with 5% - 8% market share) Combined ca. GBP 20 to 25m EBIT p.a.
Getting Better - DartyBox - internet service, FranceGetting Better DartyBox internet service, France
Break even next year if subscribers reach 350k
Getting Better - 36 stores in Turkey & Italy ca. 1% market share
Currently lose ca GBP 20m p a Currently lose ca. GBP 20m p.a. Need scale to breakeven
17Source : Company accounts, Tocqueville estimates
KESA thegood,thebad&theugly
Thebad COMET,UKWeak no. 3 in very competitive market y p
Intensifying competitive pressure from:
Service-led propositions of reinvigorated Currys, John Lewis and arrival of Best Buy.
Price-led propositions of Argos / Supermarkets
Pre-crisis avg. EBIT of GBP 40m / 2.5% EBIT margin
Annual rental bill ca. GBP 75m
Can remain viable by: Can remain viable by:
Better mix (e.g. push on accessories, service), leveraging synergies with web avoiding price war
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with web, avoiding price war
Source : Company accounts, Tocqueville estimates
KESA thegood,thebad&theugly
Theugly Darty Spain(formerlyMenaje delHogar)
Bought 2007 for ca. GBP 100m (.6x sales) GBP 37m losses inBought 2007 for ca. GBP 100m (.6x sales) GBP 37m losses in 2008/09
Competition MediaMarkt / Corte Ingls; Large independent sector Competition MediaMarkt / Corte Ingls; Large independent sector
New management finally restructuring:
21 stores closed out of 71
Service concept / Conversion to Darty banner
Losses ca GBP15m in 2009/10
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Losses ca. GBP15m in 2009/10
Source : Company accounts, Tocqueville estimates
KESA thegood,thebad&theugly
PreviousManagement
Rejected KKR bid for group at 325p in 2006
However, off-loaded But (2006) at attractive price
Disastrous Spanish acquisition
Back-tracked on share buyback
Comet claim purchasing synergies no obvious buyer
20Source : Company accounts, Tocqueville estimates
KESA thegood,thebad&theugly
NewCEO/CFOteamsince2009.Initiatives:
Dartyzation of the network
Common sourcing
Improved internet strategy
Sold Switzerland
21Source : Company accounts, Tocqueville estimates
KESA thegood,thebad&theugly
Sowhatsitallworth?
lMay2010 July 2010
EV ca.GBP650m ca.GBP800m
Share Price 100p 125pShare Price 100p 125p
Darty retail France + profitable international pro-rata central costs = ca. GBP 140m EBIT vs ca. GBP 95m at group level. ca. GBP 140m EBIT vs ca. GBP 95m at group level. On 3 year view - eliminate start-up losses and maintain Comet close to breakevenbreakeven
Pays 5p dividend
22Source : Company accounts, Tocqueville estimates
KESA thegood,thebad&theugly
Kesa Sum oftheparts
Worst C tBase C t
Darty retail france 1020 8,5x EBIT - market leader 1020GBP 300m freehold
CaseComments scenario Com ments
GBP 300m freehold
Dartybox 55 EUR 200 per subscriber 0Comet 160 5% of sales - ca 4x avg. EBIT -100 Managed exit over
several years yBenelux, Czech 140 7x EBIT 140Italy, Turkey 18 .5m per store 18Spain 0 -40 4 years of lossesInvestment Properties 30 estimateInvestment Properties 30 estimate Fair EV 1423 1038Average debt over year -50 -50Pension obligation -117 Adjusted upwards due to m ore -117
realistic discount rateCapitalized costs -149 9x annual -149Equity Value 1107 722Value per share 2 09 1 36
23Source : Company accounts, Tocqueville estimates
Value per share 2,09 1,36Note - Excludes GBP300m of core retail property
GATEGROUP - Waiting for clouds to clear
GATEGROUP Waitingforcloudstoclear
ProvidesoutsourcedservicestoairlineindustryCHF650mMarketCapZ i h li d i 05/09Zurichlisted since 05/09
25Source: Company data & Tocqueville estimates
GATEGROUP waitingforcloudstoclear
Providesoutsourcedservicestoairlineindustry
(2008) (2008)
26Source: Company data & Tocqueville estimates
GATEGROUP waitingforcloudstoclear
Mediumtermprospectsforairlinecatering?
Global passenger growth Low Cost CarriersVS
Outsourcing trend Down-trading in food
Catering factor of differentiation Less business travel?
Overall market growth below global passenger growth
27Source: Company data & Tocqueville estimates
GATEGROUP waitingforcloudstoclear
GATEGROUPisoutgrow