D&B US Economic Health Tracker (Feb. 2014)

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16% 4% 3% Payment Delinquency Credit Card Delinquency Credit Card Use Manufacturing Retail Real Estate Construction Business Services Trade, Transportation & Utilities Small Business Health Index U.S. Jobs Health D&B U.S. Economic Health Tracker A multi-dimensional view of the U.S. Economy D&B’s Small Business Health Index has contracted modestly in the current month, although small businesses saw improvement in on-time credit card and bill payments. D&B estimates 153,000 new jobs were added to U.S. payrolls in January 2014, with gains in retail and business services. The overall pace of employment growth is projected to continue improving modestly. February 2014 Source: D&B Global Data, Insights & Analytics 60 80 100 120 Jan' 14 Dec '10 Dec '08 Dec '06 Dec '04 0.2 points Source: D&B Global Data, Insights & Analytics 140000 160000 180000 200000 220000 Jan' 14 Dec' 13 Nov' 13 Oct '13 Sept '13 Aug '13 Jul '13 153,000 Number of New Jobs www.dnb.com/tracker

Transcript of D&B US Economic Health Tracker (Feb. 2014)

Page 1: D&B US Economic Health Tracker (Feb. 2014)

16%

4%

3%

Payment Delinquency

Credit Card Delinquency

Credit Card Use

Manufacturing Retail

Real Estate

Construction

Business Services

Trade, Transportation

& Utilities

Small Business Health Index

U.S. Jobs Health

D&B U.S. Economic Health TrackerA multi-dimensional view of the U.S. Economy

D&B’s Small Business Health Index has contracted modestly in the current month, although small businesses saw improvement in on-time credit card and bill payments.

D&B estimates 153,000 new jobs were added to U.S. payrolls in January 2014, with gains in retail and business services. The overall pace of employment growth is projected to continue improving modestly.

February 2014

Small Business Health Index: Overall

Source: D&B Global Data, Insights & Analytics

60

80

100

120

Jan' 14Dec '10Dec '08Dec '06Dec '04

0.2points

US Jobs Health: Overall

Source: D&B Global Data, Insights & Analytics

140000

160000

180000

200000

220000

Jan' 14Dec' 13Nov' 13Oct '13Sept '13Aug '13Jul '13

153,000

Nu

mbe

r of

New

Jobs

www.dnb.com/tracker

Page 2: D&B US Economic Health Tracker (Feb. 2014)

The D&B U.S. Business Economic Tracker revealed more bright spots for U.S. businesses in January 2014. In spite of a slight decline in the Small Business Health Index, the U.S. small business sector continues to improve steadily. While companies were more timely in credit card and bill payments, many relied more heavily on credit cards, suggesting restricted access to traditional lending. Meanwhile, an estimated 153,000 new jobs were created. The retail and business services segments helped drive growth in U.S. payrolls for the month. Finally, overall U.S. business health strengthened in January, registering a 52.8-percent index value, the highest recorded level since the index began in December 2010. U.S. businesses continued to strengthen at the beginning of 2014, based on the weighted average of D&B’s Viability Rating, Delinquency Predictor, and Total Loss Predictor. Overall, the growing number of bright spots on the U.S. economic horizon signal an acceleration in the pace of growth in 2014.

The Small Business Health Index measures year-over-year small business performance through equally weighted payment patterns and credit use. U.S. Jobs Health combines Small Business Health Index industry data with BLS figures to forecast monthly nonfarm payroll employment. The U.S. Business Health Index provides a year-over-year equally weighted average of D&B’s Viability Score, Delinquency Predictor and Total Loss Predictor. The cumulative diffusion index—which measures the breadth of change—ranges from zero (with all businesses recording high levels of risk) to 100% (with all businesses recording low levels of risk). Data available as of Jan. 31, 2014.

Methodology

www.dnb.com/tracker February 2014

About Dun & Bradstreet® (D&B)Dun & Bradstreet (NYSE:DNB) is the world’s leading source of commercial information and insight on businesses, enabling companies to Decide with Confidence® for 172 years. D&B’s global commercial database contains more than 230 million business records. The database is enhanced by D&B’s proprietary DUNSRight® Quality Process, which provides our customers with quality business information. This quality information is the foundation of our global solutions that customers rely on to make critical business decisions.

© Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved. (DB-3716 2/14)

U.S. Business Health Index

To learn more, visit www.dnb.com/tracker

Perspectives

14.8%

0.9%

Viability

Delinquency

2.2%Total Loss

US Business Health Index: Overall

Source: D&B Global Data, Insights & Analytics

45

50

55

Jan' 14Jan '13Feb' 12

IMPROVEMENT

NO CHANGE

DETERIORATION

5.9%

TOTAL INDEX VALUE52.8

U.S. business health improved nearly 6 percent in January 2014, reaching its highest recorded level since the index began in December 2010. Businesses continued to improve their balance sheets and overall financial performance, extending a trend that accelerated in 2012.

How to read this indicator:

A reading of 50%

represents “no change.” A reading of

more than 50% reflects

improvement and a reading

of less than 50% reflects

deterioration.