http://evolvinglondon.gva.co.ukEvolving London - June 2013

Dave Simmonds OBE

Centre for Economic & Social Inclusion

Evolving London – June 2013

Creating jobs, incomes and employability

Dave Simmonds OBEChief Executive

Centre for Economic & Social Inclusion

We’re doing well but need to create jobs ...

Employment rateLondon behind but gap closing

Feb-Apr 2

007

Apr-Jun 2007

Jun-Aug 2007

Aug-Oct

2007

Oct-Dec 2

007

Dec-Feb 2008

Feb-Apr 2

008

Apr-Jun 2008

Jun-Aug 2008

Aug-Oct

2008

Oct-Dec 2

008

Dec-Feb 2009

Feb-Apr 2

009

Apr-Jun 2009

Jun-Aug 2009

Aug-Oct

2009

Oct-Dec 2

009

Dec-Feb 2010

Feb-Apr 2

010

Apr-Jun 2010

Jun-Aug 2010

Aug-Oct

2010

Oct-Dec 2

010

Dec-Feb 2011

Feb-Apr 2

011

Apr-Jun 2011

Jun-Aug 2011

Aug-Oct

2011

Oct-Dec 2

011

Dec-Feb 2012

Feb-Apr 2

012

Apr-Jun 2012

Jun-Aug 2012

Aug-Oct

2012

Oct-Dec 2

012

Dec-Feb 2013

64.0

65.0

66.0

67.0

68.0

69.0

70.0

71.0

72.0

73.0

74.0

LondonEngland

Women’s employmentgrowing strongly

Unemployment higherbut narrowed

Youth unemployment higher ...Proportion of 16-24 years olds unemployed (excluding full-time students)

A diverse workforceBetween 2004 to 2012 increased from 26% to 33% of working age

London’s claimants

218,050

318,700

87,850

20,860Chart Title

job seeker

ESA and incapacity ben-efits

lone parent

others on income related benefit

Employer demand is changing and growing...

Growth in jobs

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012

2016

2020

2024

2028

2032

2036

000s

HistoricProjected

Source: GLA Economics Working Paper 52, Workforce J obs series (ONS), GLA Economics calculations

Vacanciesclimbing

Jobs where you would expect ...

Number of people in employment per sq km, all sectors

Changing employmentChange in London's sectors over past couple of decades

0

50

100

150

200

250

Manufacturing,Constructionand Utilities

Wholesale,Retail,Transport andStorage

Public admin,education andhealth

Professional,real estate andbusinessservices

Accomodation,Entertainment,Recreation andOther services

Information,Communication, Financial andInsurance

… changing structure demands higher qualifications

8% have no qualifications

48% have degrees (32% in UK)

Jobs to 2020 People servicesCreative Digital Science & Technology

Greater London Inner London East London Newham

    Increase Increase Increase IncreaseCode 2nd Tier Description Total % Total % Total % Total %

1.2 Nursing & medical Subjects/Vocations 23,786 13% 8,968 14% 3,952 14% 618 13%

13.1 Teaching and Lecturing 21,481 12% 8,524 13% 3,577 13% 504 12%15.4 Marketing and Sales 5,247 12% 2,704 13% 679 11% 76 8%

1.3 Health and Social Care 11,116 11% 4,741 12% 1,702 10% 219 9%

1.5 Child Development and Well Being 32,098 11% 13,612 12% 5,297 11% 760 10%

5.3 Urban, Rural and Regional Planning 14,959 11% 8,267 13% 1,877 9% 188 6%11.2 Sociology and Social Policy 4,308 10% 1,934 12% 640 10% 83 8%

9.3 Media and Communication 13,556 10% 7,897 12% 1,916 9% 188 7%1.1 Medicine and Dentistry 5,153 9% 2,452 11% 806 9% 98 7%2.1 Science 5,038 8% 2,518 10% 688 7% 96 6%1.4 Public Services 3,296 8% 1,278 8% 478 7% 47 4%4.1 Engineering 4,699 8% 2,650 11% 560 6% 64 4%

14.1 Foundations for Learning and Life 1,006 7% 427 8% 155 7% 20 5%15.5 Law and Legal Services 2,182 6% 1,593 9% 270 6% 17 3%8.1 Sport, Leisure and Recreation 2,566 6% 1,529 8% 351 5% 3 0%

14.2 Preparation for Work 3,691 6% 1,940 7% 493 5% 61 3%15.1 Accounting and Finance 9,127 5% 6,478 9% 956 4% 43 1%9.1 Performing Arts 2,679 5% 1,778 8% 394 5% 20 2%9.2 Crafts, Creative Arts, and Design 8,298 5% 5,454 8% 1,162 4% 101 3%6.1 ICT Practitioners 5,663 5% 3,218 7% 594 3% 108 4%

15.3 Business Management 25,161 4% 16,540 7% 2,682 3% 215 2%7.1 Retailing and Wholesaling 9,059 4% 5,649 7% 1,257 4% 202 3%

12.2 Other Languages, Literature and Culture 1,831 4% 1,141 6% 292 4% 38 3%

7.4 Hospitality and Catering 2,377 3% 1,305 4% 265 2% 21 1%

4.2 Manufacturing Technologies 11,173 3% 6,736 6% 834 2% 121 1%8.2 Travel and Tourism 1,914 3% 1,133 5% 257 3% 35 2%

4.3 Transportation Operations/Maintenance 1,589 3% 1,077 5% 77 1% 5 0%

6.2 ICT for Users 1,469 2% 1,266 4% 79 1% -16 -1%3.2 Horticulture and Forestry 79 1% 84 2% 15 1% 5 4%

15.2 Administration 136 0% 704 3% -59 -1% -23 -2%5.2 Building and Construction -6,469 -4% -1,750 -4% -1,319 -4% -218 -4%

Skill shortage areas

Skills to improve

General IT user skills

IT professional skills

Oral communication skills

Written communication skills

Customer handling skills

Team working skills

Foreign language skills

Problem solving skills

Management skills

Numeracy skills

Literacy skills

Office admin skills

Technical, practical or job-specific skills

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

EnglandLondon

The supply-side challenge ...

1. Female employment: childcare and part-time jobs

Employment rate of women with dependent children

Note: Head of family or spouse only, includes full-time studentsSource: Labour Force Survey, Oct-Dec, 2007-2011

74.2 71.3

86.9

58.347.6

73.165.7

90.0

72.4

57.3

Not parents - Men Not parents -Women

Couple parents -Men

Couple parents -Women

Lone parents - All

London Rest of UK

2. Continue to improve schools

London is ahead on % attaining 5 A-C GCSEs but varies by income

3. Improve Further Education

Curriculum should focus on subject sector areas that offer quantity (the scale of jobs) and growth (net growth in jobs) opportunities:– Health and Social Care– Marketing and Sales– Building and Construction– Business Management– Accounting and Finance– Manufacturing Technologies; and– Child Development and Well Being

Employers, continue to cite various skills shortages – the most common being management and leadership skills; and ICT and communication skills.

Advice to a London FE College:

4. Mobility: one and many labour markets

Greater London 3.7 million jobs

Inner London 1.5 million jobs

East London 0.6 million jobs

Newham 91 thousand jobs

Greater London 72,000 vacancies

Inner London 31,000 vacancies

East London 14,000 vacancies

Newham 5,000 vacancies

5. Making Work Pay in London

impact of welfare reform

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Banking, finance & insuranceTransport & communication

ManufacturingPublic admin., education & health

ConstructionOther services

Distribution, hotels & restaurants

London UK

Percent of those in work earning below the living wage by industry (2012)

6. Dynamic or insecure?

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%London UK

Movers between unemployment and low pay as a proportion of the workforce

7. Improve programmes for workless

Work Programme for the long-term unemployed:

performance in November 2012

Coventry, Warwickshire, Staffordshire & the Marches

Surrey, Sussex & Kent

Greater Manchester, Cheshire & Warrington

South Yorkshire

West Yorkshire

East London

Gloucestershire, Wiltshire & Avon0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%

4.2%

3.6%

3.1%

Map of long-term workless:880,000 Londoners due to join Work Programme, 2011-16

8. Improve adviceInformed career paths, informed by

demandInformed customers:

– Young people and other learners– Employers– Providers

A London portal for London jobs and careers

9. Self-employment city

Source: CESI

Jan 2004-Dec 2

004

Apr 2004-M

ar 2005

Jul 2004-Ju

n 2005

Oct 2004-Sep 2005

Jan 2005-Dec 2

005

Apr 2005-M

ar 2006

Jul 2005-Ju

n 2006

Oct 2005-Sep 2006

Jan 2006-Dec 2

006

Apr 2006-M

ar 2007

Jul 2006-Ju

n 2007

Oct 2006-Sep 2007

Jan 2007-Dec 2

007

Apr 2007-M

ar 2008

Jul 2007-Ju

n 2008

Oct 2007-Sep 2008

Jan 2008-Dec 2

008

Apr 2008-M

ar 2009

Jul 2008-Ju

n 2009

Oct 2008-Sep 2009

Jan 2009-Dec 2

009

Apr 2009-M

ar 2010

Jul 2009-Ju

n 2010

Oct 2009-Sep 2010

Jan 2010-Dec 2

010

Apr 2010-M

ar 2011

Jul 2010-Ju

n 2011

Oct 2010-Sep 2011

Jan 2011-Dec 2

011

Apr 2011-M

ar 2012

Jul 2011-Ju

n 2012

Oct 2010-Sep 2012

Jan 2012-Dec 2

0120.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

London rateUnited Kingdom rate

Self-employed as a percent of working age population

10. More Apprentices and Trainees

Under 19 19-24 25+ All Ages10,670 13,740 22,820 47,230