Date: 20151207 UMAC Review Highlights at NCEP Production Suite Review (NPSR) UMAC committee Richard...

Date: 20151207

UMAC Review Highlights atNCEP Production Suite Review (NPSR)

UMAC committee

Richard Rood and Frederick Carr, co-chairs

December 7, 2015

UMAC Membership: https://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/umac_model_advisory/members

UMAC Website: https://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/umac_model_advisory/

Date: 20151207

NPSR Review December 7, 2015

Committee

• Frederick Carr, co-chair• Richard Rood, co-chair• Alan Blumberg• Chris Bretherton• Andy Brown• Eric Chassignet• Brian Colle• James Doyle• Tom Hamill• Anke Kamrath

• Jim Kinter• Ben Kirtman• Cliff Mass• Peter Neilley• Christa Peters-Lidard

• Ex Officio• Gilbert Brunet• William Kuo• Tsengdar Lee

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Report Structure

• Executive Summary• Introduction• Overarching Findings and Recommendations• Findings and Recommendations for Specific Modeling

Themes – Global– Regional– Water-related– Ensembles– Reanalysis, Reforecast, Post-processing

• NCEP as an End-to-End system• Appendices

IntroductionOverarching Findings and RecommendationsSpecific Recommendations

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Timing

• On November 20, 2015 a draft was released to NCEP for fact checking

• Official release: December 7, 2015

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from Overarching Findings and Recommendations

UMAC notes that NOAA's organization of NEWP is unusual in many respects. No other peer environmental prediction service has chosen to separate its basic research and development from its applied, operational model implementation. No other national prediction service has produced such a diversity of prediction systems, most without the critical mass of resources to make them world-best. No other prediction service lacks top-level oversight spanning

the research to the applied development. …

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from Overarching Findings and Recommendations

The key finding is an optimistic one: U.S. Environmental Prediction has the potential to rapidly progress to world leadership. This requires a new level of organization and bold, evidence-driven decision-making.

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from Overarching Finding and Recommendations

• Reduce the complexity of the NCEP Production Suite.

• The NOAA environmental modeling community requires a rational, evidence- driven approach towards decision-making and end-to-end modeling system development.

• A unified, collaborative strategy for model development across NOAA is needed.

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• Essential to effective planning and execution is the creation of a Chief Scientist position for Numerical Environmental and Weather Prediction (NEWP).

• NOAA needs to better leverage the capabilities of the external community

• NOAA must continue to enhance High Performance Computing (HPC) capabilities.

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• NOAA must develop a comprehensive and detailed vision document and strategic plan that lay out future development of national environmental prediction capabilities.

• Execute strategic and implementation plans based on stakeholder requirements.

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The future will require

• Moving to more unified systems• Addressing increasing scientific and data

complexity• Relying more broadly and more effectively

on community research and assets

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Balanced, evidence-based decisions across products and systems

• Stakeholder requirements• Scientific excellence • Cost

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Highlighting Global (Rood Take 1)

• The NGGPS and NEMS are very encouraging as scientific, software, and management advances.– Organizational focus needs to unite on these

efforts – Data assimilation needs to be incorporated into

these efforts– GFS, existing global systems, need to have a phase

out plan to support NGGPS becoming operational

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Highlighting Regional (Rood Take 1)

• Daunting complexity that is not scientifically justified.

• Needs to eliminate systems • Needs to integrate better with global

modeling• Needs a vision

– Unified systems– Convective-resolving U.S. ensembles– Software management

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Air Quality, Dispersion, Space

• Panel felt we are not properly staffed to address technical issues.– Endorse Space Weather integrated into NGGPS– Air Quality and Dispersion requirements /

interface should be integrated with NGGPS and atmospheric systems

– We note the community design and review of Air Quality (and Dispersion?) as a successful model of practice

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Highlighting ‘Water” (Rood Take 1)

• Multi-organizational demands more management attention

• Requirements and resource demands for the evolving National Water Center need more attention and integration with EMC and NCEP Central Operations

• WAVEWATCH a successful model of community engagement

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Highlighting Ensembles (Rood Take 1)

• NCEP should consolidate its ensemble prediction under unified dynamical cores using physically based stochastic parameterizations to treat model uncertainty in the ensembles

• Need to better integrate with global• Scientific progress more likely to be made

through robust investigation in a well managed system in a controlled environment than through algorithm and model diversity

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Highlighting ‘Reanalysis” (Rood Take 1)

• Decisions on what computational and storage resources are allocated to R/R should be done in a systematic manner, based on how they help NOAA meet its requirements, as recommended elsewhere by UMAC

• Nonetheless, given the demonstrated value of carefully constructed reforecast data sets, post processing and the production of supporting data sets (reanalysis/reforecast, R/R) should be considered an integral part of NCEP’s future production suite and resourced accordingly

• Need more management, design and uniformity in grids used as stakeholder interfaces

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Highlight systems (Rood take 1)

• UMAC calls for a “new-level of organization,” and “evidence-based decision making”

• This section is an analysis and description of the possible meaning of organizational recommendations– Project management– Software management– Organizational governance

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Highlight systems (Rood take 1)

• Short-term to gain control over complexity– Document and maintain complete range of products and

systems– Identify and publicize leads for all products and systems– Hire or identify software leads, with proven expertise in

scientific software– Develop Change Review Boards for all products and systems– Develop a software release schedule for major systems on

the order of 12-24 months– Replace all the code that EMC uses with code developed

with formalized software management

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Final Remarks

• “a transformation to a science-based, service organization directed toward building a weather-ready nation”– Requires a new type of organization:

• More unified• Better able to participate as member of community• Recognize and manage complexity• Requires commitment and continuity from leadership• Requires buy in from entire organization• Will be a transition of years, not simply responding to

reports such as this one

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Acronyms

• NOAA – National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration

• NWS – National Weather Service• NOS – National Ocean Service• OAR – Oceanic and Atmospheric Research• NCEP – National Centers for Environmental

Prediction• NWC – National Water Center

• UCACN - University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Community Advisory Committee for NCEP

• UMAC – UCACN Model Advisory Committee

• NGGPS: Next Generation Global Prediction Center

• NEMS: NOAA Environmental Modeling System

• CMC: Canadian Meteorological Center• ECMWF: European Center for Medium-

range Weather Forecasts• NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric

Research• NRL: Naval Research Laboratory

• S2S: Sub-seasonal to seasonal• S2A: Seasonal to Annual

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