Data Source: Bloomberg Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. 1 · 2020. 9. 29. · Data Source: Bloomberg...

The Macro Show

© Hedgeye Risk Management LLC

DISCLAIMERHedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut. Hedgeye Risk Management is not a broker dealer and does not provide investment advice to individuals. This research does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This research is presented without regard to individual investment preferences or risk parameters; it is general information and does not constitute specific investment advice. This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible for errors, inaccuracies or omissions of information. The opinions and conclusions contained in this report are those of HedgeyeRisk Management, and are intended solely for the use of Hedgeye Risk Management’s clients and subscribers. In reaching these opinions and conclusions, Hedgeye Risk Management and its employees have relied upon research conducted by Hedgeye Risk Management’s employees, which is based upon sources considered credible and reliable within the industry. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible for the validity or authenticity of the information upon which it has relied.

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LEGAL

DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG 2

http://www.hedgeye.com/

© Hedgeye Risk Management LLC.Data Source: Bloomberg

What Are The Quads?

3

Our GIP Model is a quantitatively oriented, regime-based framework that helps investors proactively prepare for volatility phase transitions within and across asset classes by triangulating the three factors that matter most to Macro Risk Management – i.e. GROWTH, INFLATION, and POLICY.

© Hedgeye Risk Management LLC.

A│B Testing Process: Quantify Investor Consensus

Data Sources: Bloomberg, CFTC. Data though 9/28 close.

Monitoring Sector and Style factor Performance allows us to quantitatively track the evolution of our Macro Themes. Additionally, MEASURING and MAPPING key data sets within the CFTC COT report removes the qualitative guesswork from the process of tracking and ultimately FADING crowded positioning.

4

© Hedgeye Risk Management LLC.Data Source: Bloomberg. Data though 9/28 close.

Deliberately studying the VOLATILITY OF VOLATILITY leads to high-probability decision-making opportunities. TIMING matters.

A│B Testing Process: Measure & Map The Volatility of Volatility

5


US Real GDP YoY Projections

Data Source: Bloomberg

We use two distinct models to forecast the YoY growth rate of Real GDP and the combination of the two allows us to

develop both a highly accurate real-time assessment of near-term economic

momentum, as well as a high-probability scenario for where growth is likely to trend

over the NTM.

Intra-quarter, we employ a stochastic nowcasting framework that anchors on nonlinear interpolation to relay rate of

change signals from the individual features of the dynamic factor model to

the base rate. In out-quarters where high-frequency data has yet to be reported, we employ a Bayesian Inference process that adjusts each of the preceding forecasted base rates inversely and proportionally to

changes in the base effects.

All told, our US GDP nowcast model has an average absolute forecast error of

26bps and an 88% success rate in terms of accurately projecting the rate of

change of GROWTH.

6

2.18% 2.37%2.70% 3.08%

3.33% 3.12%2.48% 2.27% 1.96% 2.08% 2.34%

0.32%

-9.14%

-3.70%-4.23%

-3.06%

7.37%

-4.40%-3.90%

-1.60%

8.90%

-2.49%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20E 4Q20E 1Q21E 2Q21E

United States

Real GDP YoY

Hedgeye Estimates - Nowcast Model

Hedgeye Estimates - Enhanced Comparative Base Effects Model

Bloomberg Consensus Estimates

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model


US Real GDP QoQ SAAR Projections


One differentiating factor of our forecasting process is that we aim to solve

for where the economy is trending on a Full Investing Cycle basis, rather than

trying to identify super short-term economic momentum.

Our rigorous study of financial market history suggests the latter to be little more

than noise in the context of making accurate intermediate-to-long-term

investment decisions.

As such, we are comfortable departing from the [perceived] “best” practices of

economist consensus by interpolating our QoQ SAAR forecasts from our forecasted

YoY growth rates. Macroeconomic Theory ≠ Macro Risk Management.

7

1.70% 2.90%3.90% 3.80% 2.70% 2.10% 1.30% 2.90% 1.50% 2.60% 2.40%

-5.00%

-31.70%

26.66%

0.12%

-0.21%

2.73%

25.10%

5.00% 4.00% 4.00%

32.00%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%


United States

Real GDP QoQ SAAR


Hedgeye Estimates - Enhanced Comparative Base Effects Model


Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model


US Headline CPI YoY Projections


We use two distinct models to forecast the YoY growth rate of Headline CPI and the

combination of the two allows us to develop both a highly accurate real-time

assessment of near-term inflation momentum, as well as a high-probability

scenario for where inflation is likely to trend over the NTM.

Intra-quarter, we employ a stochastic nowcasting framework that anchors on nonlinear interpolation to relay rate of

change signals from the individual features of the dynamic factor model to

the base rate. In out-quarters where high-frequency data has yet to be reported, we employ a Bayesian Inference process that adjusts each of the preceding forecasted base rates inversely and proportionally to

changes in the base effects.

All told, our US CPI nowcast model has an average absolute forecast error of

17bps and an 85% success rate in terms of accurately projecting the rate of

change of INFLATION.

8

1.90% 1.97%2.12%

2.21%

2.71% 2.64%

2.20%

1.64%1.81% 1.76%

2.03%2.12%

0.36%

1.06% 1.09%

1.26%

1.86%

1.10%1.00%

1.30%

2.40%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%


United States

Headline CPI YoY


Hedgeye Estimates - Comparative Base Effects Model


© Hedgeye Risk Management LLC.Data Source: Bloomberg

G20 GIP Model Summary

The Quads Are Global

9


1

2

3

Q4 2020 Macro Themes

Investor consensus is heavily net short of NASDAQ futures, long bond futures, and DXY futures. One or two of these conditions must give in the coming weeks. In the presentation, we’ll detail the economic and market signals we’re leaning on to proactively prepare for a nasty Quad 4 market or a resumption of the Quad 3 regime Wall Street completely missed calling for back in June.

Goldman was out recently highlighting the electoral process risk Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe has called attention to for months. In the presentation, we’ll build upon Neil’s work, detail the economic drivers of America’s polarized political climate, and shine light on the increasingly probable path towards MMT.

We’ve long held the belief that Phase 3 in unencumbered economies like China and pockets of EM and Northern Europe is unlikely to resemble Phase 3 in overly indebted economies like the USA, Core Europe, and Japan. In the presentation, we’ll detail why investors should expect heightening dispersion in the economic and financial market performance of economies across the globe in this post-Phase 2 world.

USA: Quad 3 Or Quad 4 In Q4?

Biden vs. Trump

China: Quads 1 & 2

10



USA: Quad 3 Or Quad 4 In Q4?

11


The Bearish TREND In The US Dollar Index Continues To Signal Phase 3 = Quad 3 – The Highest Probability Regime For Q4 At 55%

Data Source: Bloomberg 12

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105US Dollar Index (DXY) @Hedgeye TREND Resistance = 95.12


… But The Recent Bearish TREND Breakdown In Energy Heightens An Already Elevated Probability Of Quad 4 In Q4 (43% Latest)


-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150 WTI Crude Oil $/bbl. @Hedgeye TREND Resistance = 41.44


The Bullish TREND Breakout #NAZvol Is Signaling Quad 4 As Well


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90CBOE NASDAQ Volatility Index (VXN) @Hedgeye TREND Support = 32


The Drivers Of INFLATION Are Decidedly Mixed Over The Near Term


215bps140bps

86bps75bps

68bps52bps

42bps35bps

21bps12bps

9bps9bps8bps7bps

3bps1bps1bps1bps0bps

-3bps-5bps-7bps

-9bps-11bps

-18bps-37bps

-39bps-52bps

-70bps-86bps

-94bps

-150bps -100bps -50bps 0bps 50bps 100bps 150bps 200bps 250bps

Energy Goods CPI YoY (3% of basket)Education & Communication Goods CPI YoY (1% of basket)

Energy CPI YoY (6% of basket)Transportation Goods CPI YoY (7% of basket)Household Operations CPI YoY (1% of basket)

Apparel CPI YoY (3% of basket)Alcoholic Beverages CPI YoY (1% of basket)

Core Goods CPI YoY (20% of basket)Household Furnishings & Supplies CPI YoY (4% of basket)

Water, Sewer & Trash Collection CPI YoY (1% of basket)Core PCE Deflator YoY

Core CPI YoY (80% of basket)PCE Deflator YoY

Shelter CPI YoY (33% of basket)Headline CPI YoY (100% of basket)

Cleveland Fed Median CPI YoYEducation & Communication Services CPI YoY (6% of basket)

Food Away From Home CPI YoY (6% of basket)Transportation Services CPI YoY (5% of basket)

Core Services CPI YoY (60% of basket)Atlanta Fed Sticky CPI YoY

Atlanta Fed Core Sticky CPI YoYOther Goods CPI YoY (1% of basket)

Food CPI YoY (14% of basket)Food At Home CPI YoY (8% of basket)

Other Personal Services CPI YoY (2% of basket)Recreation Services CPI YoY (4% of basket)

Recreation Goods CPI YoY (2% of basket)Energy Services CPI YoY (3% of basket)

Medical Care Goods CPI YoY (2% of basket)Medical Care Services CPI YoY (7% of basket)

4Q20E ∆


Ask Yourself: “Why Did The Yield Curve Invert Last Year?”


US Treasury 2Y10Y Yield Spread: TTM ViewUS Treasury 2Y10Y Yield Spread: Long-Term View

499

499.2

499.4

499.6

499.8

500

500.2

500.4

500.6

500.8

501

-100bps

-50bps

0bps

50bps

100bps

150bps

200bps

250bps

300bpsUS Recession US Treasury 2Y10Y Yield Curve

-20bps

0bps

20bps

40bps

60bps

80bps

100bps US Treasury 2Y10Y Yield Curve


Was Yield Curve Inversion Presaging A “White Swan”Contraction In The Inventory Cycle?

Data Source: Bloomberg. 1990-91 Recession: JUL ‘88 through JUN ‘91. 2001: JAN ‘00 through JUL ‘01. GFC: JAN ‘08 through JUN ‘09. Current cycle-peak = FEB ‘18. 17

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

ISM Manufacturing Report on Business Inventories NSA (n months from cycle-peak)

1990-91 Recession 2001 Recession Great Recession MEDIAN Current Downturn


Was Yield Curve Inversion Presaging A “White Swan”Contraction In The Capex Cycle?

Data Source: Bloomberg. 1990-91 Recession: 1Q90 through 1Q92. 2001: 4Q00 through 4Q02. GFC: 2Q08 through 3Q09. Current cycle-peak = 3Q19. 18

-20%

-18%

-16%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

US Gross Private Domestic Investment Nonresidential Chained 2012 SAAR (n quarters from cycle-peak)

1990-91 Recession 2001 Recession Great Recession MEDIAN Current Downturn


Was Yield Curve Inversion Presaging A “White Swan”Contraction In The Corporate Profits Cycle?

Data Source: Bloomberg. 2001 Recession: JUN ‘01 through APR ‘02. GFC: SEP ‘07 through NOV ‘09. 2015-16: DEC ‘14 through JUN ‘16. Current cycle-peak = JUL ‘19. 19

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

Russell 1000 Value Index TTM EPS (n trading days from cycle-peak)

2001-02 Earnings Recession Great Recession 2015-16 Earnings Recession MEDIAN Current Downturn


Private Payrolls Could Decline More Than -2% From Here

Data Source: Bloomberg. The final red arrow represents the median of the prior ten cycles. 20

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

-1500bps

-1200bps

-900bps

-600bps

-300bps

0bps

300bps

600bps

900bps

1200bps

1500bps

US Unit Labor Costs YoY Less Real GDP YoY (bps Spread)

Peak-to-Trough Drawdown In Private Payrolls POST Peak Recessionary ULCI-RGDP Spread(Peak Duration & Peak Delta = 10 Quarters and -6%, Respectively)



Biden vs. Trump

21


COUNTDOWN …. TO CHAOS?!


The risk of a constitutional crisis is high and rising.

© Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. 23Data Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 9/28.

The election risk premium is elevated relative to anything we’ve observed in recent election cycles.

Election Risk in Equities

26.38

31.23

32.93

31.33

30.33

29.65

29.23

28.7028.33

27.95

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

Spot Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June

VIX CURVE

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20

VIX | Election Risk Premium: VIX 2nd Month - VIX 1st Month (UX2 - UX1)

9/4: Election Risk enters 2-Mo. window

© Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. 24Data Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 9/28.

Angst on Display in FX and Rates Vol

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20

USD/JPY: 2 Month - 1 Month Implied Volatility

9/4: Election Risk enters 2-Mo. window

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Expiration (Mo.)

30Y Rates: Term Structure of Volatility*

NOV/DEC

FX Vol Rates Vol

*Vol premium in swaptions

© Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. 25Data Source: Bloomberg

Continuing Claims & Total Claimants may begin to decline as we run out of large numbers of people to fire and as individuals exhaust their 26-weeks of eligibility (which is beginning now). Benefits have already fallen steeply and will step function lower again as the $300/wk benefit expires and individuals lose eligibility altogether.

Jobless Claims May Begin Falling …. For the Wrong Reason

2,0062,1053,448

8,260

12,581

16,582

19,020

25,467

27,396

31,10330,347

29,56729,29430,591

31,51232,430

29,729

31,80430,79931,321

28,25128,04827,013

29,20529,67029,768

26,045

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

03/0

6/20

03/1

3/20

03/2

0/20

03/2

7/20

04/0

3/20

04/1

0/20

04/1

7/20

04/2

4/20

05/0

1/20

05/0

8/20

05/1

5/20

05/2

2/20

05/2

9/20

06/0

5/20

06/1

2/20

06/1

9/20

06/2

6/20

07/0

3/20

07/1

0/20

07/1

7/20

07/2

4/20

07/3

1/20

08/0

7/20

08/1

4/20

08/2

1/20

08/2

8/20

09/0

4/20

Total U.I. Benefit RecipientsWeekly, 000's


The ranks of the long-term unemployed are swelling … opening up the risk for structural unemployment and downside in aggregate consumption capacity.

“Temporary” is gradually giving way to Permanent

48.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Aug-

96

Aug-

97

Aug-

98

Aug-

99

Aug-

00

Aug-

01

Aug-

02

Aug-

03

Aug-

04

Aug-

05

Aug-

06

Aug-

07

Aug-

08

Aug-

09

Aug-

10

Aug-

11

Aug-

12

Aug-

13

Aug-

14

Aug-

15

Aug-

16

Aug-

17

Aug-

18

Aug-

19

Aug-

20

Of Total Unemployed % Unemployed 15-26 Weeks SA

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Aug-

96

Aug-

97

Aug-

98

Aug-

99

Aug-

00

Aug-

01

Aug-

02

Aug-

03

Aug-

04

Aug-

05

Aug-

06

Aug-

07

Aug-

08

Aug-

09

Aug-

10

Aug-

11

Aug-

12

Aug-

13

Aug-

14

Aug-

15

Aug-

16

Aug-

17

Aug-

18

Aug-

19

Aug-

20

Total Unemployed: 15-26 weeks + 27+ weeks, 000's

US Unemployment Duration 15 to 26 Weeks SA US Unemployment Duration 27 Weeks and Over SA

© Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. 27Data Source: AFS Business Intelligence, Bloomberg

Both access to and terms of credit have deteriorated meaningfully for small businesses.

Bottom Half of the (Corporate) K Access ↓↓, Cost ↑↑

70

54.3

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-

10

Jun-

10

Nov

-10

Apr-

11

Sep-

11

Feb-

12

Jul-1

2

Dec-

12

May

-13

Oct

-13

Mar

-14

Aug-

14

Jan-

15

Jun-

15

Nov

-15

Apr-

16

Sep-

16

Feb-

17

Jul-1

7

Dec-

17

May

-18

Oct

-18

Mar

-19

Aug-

19

Jan-

20

Jun-

20

Net % Lenders Tightening Standards for Small Firms Net % Lenders Increasing Spreads for Small Firms


Inequality was conspicuously on display in markets as well. The elites and/or those with access to public markets (& the Fed) issued record amounts of debt at near all-time low spreads.

Top Half of the (Corporate) K ATH ISSUANCE AT ATL SPREADS

1.65E+12

9.91E+111.03E+12

1.13E+121.09E+12

1.02E+12

9.27E+119.08E+11

7.97E+11

6.81E+116.84E+11

9.01E+11

0.00E+00

2.00E+11

4.00E+11

6.00E+11

8.00E+11

1.00E+12

1.20E+12

1.40E+12

1.60E+12

1.80E+12

202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009

US IG Issuance: Annual Jan-Sept TotalUS IG Issuance 2009-2019 Avg

+78% Vs.

Decade Avg

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

IG SPREADIG Spread ATL

ATH


Perhaps the Fed expanding asset purchases to almost exactly offset increased issuance/deficit spending is a coincidence and not overt debt monetization … perhaps.

#MMT: This Is Not An Accident … It’s A Preview

-3125

3230

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20 Aug-20

Federal Budget Defict/Surplus: 12M Chg Feb Balance Sheet: 12M Chg


Technology Dominance And Offshoring Have Been Laying The Groundwork For #MMT For The Past Two Decades


6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

55%

57%

59%

61%

63%

65%

67%

US Recession US Employee Compensation as a % of GVA of Domestic Corporations US Corporate Profits as a % of GDP (rhs)



China: Quads 1 & 2

31


PMIs Have Bounced Off The Lows But Global GROWTH Remains In A Deep, Dark Hole Heading Into Phase 3


53.8 53.753.0

52.351.7

50.5

49.949.5

50.1

48.2

43.3

51.2

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

JPM Global Manufacturing PMI - Quarterly Average G20 Median Real GDP YoY - Percentile Basis (T10Y; rhs)


Political Theatre Aside, Investors Should Expect Incremental Rounds Of Dollar Debasement For At Least The Next Several Years


Argentina, 328bps

Australia, 164bps

Austria, 70bps

Belgium, 4bps

Brazil, 138bps

Canada, 453bps

Chile, 359bps

China, 45bpsCzech Republic, 41bpsDenmark, 42bpsEurozone, 34bps

Finland, 218bps

France, -115bps

Germany, 142bps

Greece, -17bps

Hong Kong, 285bps

Indonesia, -15bpsIreland, 19bpsIsrael, 30bps

Italy, -17bps

Japan, 54bps

Malaysia, 140bpsMexico, 131bpsNetherlands, 114bps

New Zealand, -8bps

Norway, 92bps

Peru, 622bps

Poland, -5bps

Portugal, -88bps

Russia, 143bps

Singapore, 65bps

South Africa, 140bps

South Korea, 44bps

Spain, 123bps

Sweden, 223bps

Switzerland, 87bps

Taiwan, 35bpsThailand, 7bps

Turkey, -67bps

United Kingdom, 27bps

United States, 473bps

-200bps

-100bps

0bps

100bps

200bps

300bps

400bps

500bps

600bps

700bps

-1600bps -1400bps -1200bps -1000bps -800bps -600bps -400bps -200bps 0bps

x-axis: Fiscal Balance as a % of GDP - ∆ From 2019 Average; y-axis: Headline Unemployment Rate - ∆ From 2019 Average

Linear (x-axis: Fiscal Balance as a % of GDP - ∆ From 2019 Average; y-axis: Headline Unemployment Rate - ∆ From 2019 Average)


The US Dollar Could (And Should) Decline A Lot From Here As #MMT Becomes A De Facto Reality Over The Next Few Years


499

499.1

499.2

499.3

499.4

499.5

499.6

499.7

499.8

499.9

500

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125US Recession Broad Trade Weighted US Dollar Index Latest Value = 116


The Chinese Economy Is Especially Sensitive To Global Dollar Liquidity Dynamics And Would Welcome Further USD Debasement

Data Sources: Bloomberg 35

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125Broad Trade-Weighted US Dollar Index - Quarterly Average China Nominal GDP - Secondary Industries YoY (rhs)


1

2

3

Thematic Investment Conclusions

LONGS: Consumer Staples (XLP), China Consumer (CHIQ), Taiwan (EWT), Finland (EFNL), Denmark (EDEN)

SHORTS: Health Care (XLV), Singapore (EWS), Germany (EWG), France (EWQ), Brazil (EWZ), South Africa (EZA), Hedge Fund Hotels (GVIP)

LONGS: Gold Miners (GDX), Utilities (XLU), A-Shares (KBA), Chinese Internet (KWEB), IG Credit (LQD), Japanese Yen (FXY), Livestock (COW), Corn (CORN)

SHORTS: Financials (XLF), High Yield Credit (JNK), Private Equity (PSP), Russell 2000 Value (IWN), Airlines (JETS), Spain (EWP), US Dollar (UUP)

LONGS: Long Duration Treasuries (TLT), Short Duration Treasuries (SHY), Gold (GLD)

SHORTS: Russell 2000 (IWM)

Immediate-term TRADE (introduced at the start of the quarter)

Intermediate-term TREND (introduced in prior quarters)

Long-term TAIL (introduced < 3yrs ago)

36


For more information, contact us at:

[email protected]

Slide Number 1Slide Number 2What Are The Quads?A│B Testing Process: Quantify Investor Consensus A│B Testing Process: Measure & Map The Volatility of VolatilityUS Real GDP YoY ProjectionsUS Real GDP QoQ SAAR ProjectionsUS Headline CPI YoY ProjectionsThe Quads Are GlobalQ4 2020 Macro ThemesQ4 2020 Macro ThemesThe Bearish TREND In The US Dollar Index Continues To Signal Phase 3 = Quad 3 – The Highest Probability Regime For Q4 At 55%… But The Recent Bearish TREND Breakdown In Energy Heightens An Already Elevated Probability Of Quad 4 In Q4 (43% Latest)The Bullish TREND Breakout #NAZvol Is Signaling Quad 4 As WellThe Drivers Of INFLATION Are Decidedly Mixed Over The Near TermAsk Yourself: “Why Did The Yield Curve Invert Last Year?”Was Yield Curve Inversion Presaging A “White Swan” Contraction In The Inventory Cycle?Was Yield Curve Inversion Presaging A “White Swan” Contraction In The Capex Cycle?Was Yield Curve Inversion Presaging A “White Swan” Contraction In The Corporate Profits Cycle?Private Payrolls Could Decline More Than -2% From HereQ4 2020 Macro ThemesCOUNTDOWN …. TO CHAOS?!Election Risk in EquitiesAngst on Display in FX and Rates Vol Jobless Claims May Begin Falling …. For the Wrong Reason“Temporary” is gradually giving way to PermanentBottom Half of the (Corporate) K Access ↓↓, Cost ↑↑Top Half of the (Corporate) K ATH ISSUANCE AT ATL SPREADS#MMT: This Is Not An Accident … It’s A PreviewTechnology Dominance And Offshoring Have Been Laying The Groundwork For #MMT For The Past Two DecadesQ4 2020 Macro ThemesPMIs Have Bounced Off The Lows But Global GROWTH Remains In A Deep, Dark Hole Heading Into Phase 3Political Theatre Aside, Investors Should Expect Incremental Rounds Of Dollar Debasement For At Least The Next Several Years The US Dollar Could (And Should) Decline A Lot From Here As #MMT Becomes A De Facto Reality Over The Next Few YearsThe Chinese Economy Is Especially Sensitive To Global Dollar Liquidity Dynamics And Would Welcome Further USD DebasementThematic Investment ConclusionsSlide Number 37

Data Source: Bloomberg Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. 1 · 2020. 9. 29. · Data Source: Bloomberg...

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Transcript of Data Source: Bloomberg Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. 1 · 2020. 9. 29. · Data Source: Bloomberg...