Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A...

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Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence Univ., NY Statistical Sports Consulting, LLC [email protected] @SchuckersM @EmpiricalSports May 28, 2019 c M. Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28, 2019 1 / 36

Transcript of Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A...

Page 1: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft A Review

Michael Schuckers

St Lawrence Univ NYStatistical Sports Consulting LLC

schuckersstlawuedu

SchuckersM

EmpiricalSports

May 28 2019

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 1 36

Where

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 2 36

NHL Entry Draft

Annually at the end of June (Vancouver this year 621amp 622)

Method by which newly eligible players are allocated to NHL teams

Eligible players 18 years old on or before September 15 and not olderthan 20 years old before December 31 (Worldwide)

Each team (of 31) starts with a pick in each of 7 rounds

Team with the worst record has best chance at first pick in first round(lottery among non-playoff teams)

After 1st round picks are made in order of reg season finish

Draft picks are tradable assets

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 3 36

Plan for this talk

Motivating Example

How to Value Draft Picks

Which Players to Draft

Other Draft-ish Work

Possible Areas of Research

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 4 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 6 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

8 PHL Sean Couturier (F)

9 BOS Dougie Hamilton (D)

10 MIN Jonas Brodin (D)

11 COL Duncan Siemens (D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 7 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 2: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Where

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 2 36

NHL Entry Draft

Annually at the end of June (Vancouver this year 621amp 622)

Method by which newly eligible players are allocated to NHL teams

Eligible players 18 years old on or before September 15 and not olderthan 20 years old before December 31 (Worldwide)

Each team (of 31) starts with a pick in each of 7 rounds

Team with the worst record has best chance at first pick in first round(lottery among non-playoff teams)

After 1st round picks are made in order of reg season finish

Draft picks are tradable assets

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 3 36

Plan for this talk

Motivating Example

How to Value Draft Picks

Which Players to Draft

Other Draft-ish Work

Possible Areas of Research

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 4 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 6 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

8 PHL Sean Couturier (F)

9 BOS Dougie Hamilton (D)

10 MIN Jonas Brodin (D)

11 COL Duncan Siemens (D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 7 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 3: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

NHL Entry Draft

Annually at the end of June (Vancouver this year 621amp 622)

Method by which newly eligible players are allocated to NHL teams

Eligible players 18 years old on or before September 15 and not olderthan 20 years old before December 31 (Worldwide)

Each team (of 31) starts with a pick in each of 7 rounds

Team with the worst record has best chance at first pick in first round(lottery among non-playoff teams)

After 1st round picks are made in order of reg season finish

Draft picks are tradable assets

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 3 36

Plan for this talk

Motivating Example

How to Value Draft Picks

Which Players to Draft

Other Draft-ish Work

Possible Areas of Research

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 4 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 6 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

8 PHL Sean Couturier (F)

9 BOS Dougie Hamilton (D)

10 MIN Jonas Brodin (D)

11 COL Duncan Siemens (D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 7 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 4: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Plan for this talk

Motivating Example

How to Value Draft Picks

Which Players to Draft

Other Draft-ish Work

Possible Areas of Research

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 4 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 6 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

8 PHL Sean Couturier (F)

9 BOS Dougie Hamilton (D)

10 MIN Jonas Brodin (D)

11 COL Duncan Siemens (D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 7 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 5: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 6 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

8 PHL Sean Couturier (F)

9 BOS Dougie Hamilton (D)

10 MIN Jonas Brodin (D)

11 COL Duncan Siemens (D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 7 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 6: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 6 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

8 PHL Sean Couturier (F)

9 BOS Dougie Hamilton (D)

10 MIN Jonas Brodin (D)

11 COL Duncan Siemens (D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 7 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 7: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 6 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

8 PHL Sean Couturier (F)

9 BOS Dougie Hamilton (D)

10 MIN Jonas Brodin (D)

11 COL Duncan Siemens (D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 7 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 8: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 6 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

8 PHL Sean Couturier (F)

9 BOS Dougie Hamilton (D)

10 MIN Jonas Brodin (D)

11 COL Duncan Siemens (D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 7 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 9: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 6 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

8 PHL Sean Couturier (F)

9 BOS Dougie Hamilton (D)

10 MIN Jonas Brodin (D)

11 COL Duncan Siemens (D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 7 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 10: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 6 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

8 PHL Sean Couturier (F)

9 BOS Dougie Hamilton (D)

10 MIN Jonas Brodin (D)

11 COL Duncan Siemens (D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 7 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 11: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 6 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

8 PHL Sean Couturier (F)

9 BOS Dougie Hamilton (D)

10 MIN Jonas Brodin (D)

11 COL Duncan Siemens (D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 7 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 12: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 6 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

8 PHL Sean Couturier (F)

9 BOS Dougie Hamilton (D)

10 MIN Jonas Brodin (D)

11 COL Duncan Siemens (D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 7 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 13: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)

Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 6 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

8 PHL Sean Couturier (F)

9 BOS Dougie Hamilton (D)

10 MIN Jonas Brodin (D)

11 COL Duncan Siemens (D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 7 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 14: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 5 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 6 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

8 PHL Sean Couturier (F)

9 BOS Dougie Hamilton (D)

10 MIN Jonas Brodin (D)

11 COL Duncan Siemens (D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 7 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 15: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

Who should WPG select Consensus Available (in order)Sean Couturier (F) Dougie Hamilton (D) Ryan Murphy (D)Sven Baertschi (F) Nathan Beaulieu (D) Duncan Siemens (D) MarkScheifele (F)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 6 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

8 PHL Sean Couturier (F)

9 BOS Dougie Hamilton (D)

10 MIN Jonas Brodin (D)

11 COL Duncan Siemens (D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 7 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 16: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

The 2011 NHL Draft first six picks

1 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F)

2 COL Gabriel Landeskog (F)

3 FLA Jonathan Huberdeau (F)

4 NJD Adam Larsson (D)

5 NYI Ryan Strome (F)

6 OTT Mika Zibanejad (F)

7 WPG Mark Scheifele (F)

8 PHL Sean Couturier (F)

9 BOS Dougie Hamilton (D)

10 MIN Jonas Brodin (D)

11 COL Duncan Siemens (D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 7 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 17: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 18: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 19: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 20: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 21: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 22: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Consensus that Scheifele pick was a surprise

Some analytics about Couturier gtgt Scheifele (return to this)

Post draft Couturier had 77 46 GP (Games Played) 1st 2 yrs

Post draft Scheifele had 7 4 GP 1st 2 yrs

Today after 8 seasons Couturier has 578 GP 343 Pts 134 Goals

Today after 8 seasons Scheifele has 448 GP 371 Pts 151 Goals

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 8 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 23: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 24: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 25: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 26: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 27: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 28: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Motivation

Motivation the 2011 NHL Draft

Illustrate some themes

Evaluation of players is hard

and it takes time (players develop at different rates from 18yo)

Metrics for assessment are not simple

nor single agreed response metric

In short noisy and sparse data with slow feedback and

(to teams) results incredibly important

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 9 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 29: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is a draft pick worth

Line of reasoning originally from NFL

Assign valuecurrency to each pick

Allows for evaluating trading of picks

Based upon historical trades

Assigned 3000 to first pick why

Created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson

ldquoDraft Pick Value Chartrdquo (DPVC)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 10 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 30: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mathematically

For a trade trying to find some f that we can use to such thatsumiisinI

f (pi ) asympsumjisinJ

f (pj)

where pi pj are draft pick selections for first and second team

For example if a team wanted to move from the 10th pick to the 5th pickthey would have to trade the 10th and the 106th pick so that the value onboth sides was roughly the same Eg

f (5) asymp f (10) + f (106)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 11 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 31: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Draft Pick Value Chart

Alternative DPVC

Alternatives begin in NFL

Massey and Thaler (2006 2013) - second contracts

Stuart (2012) - player performance career approximate value through5 years

Schuckers JQAS (2012) - player performance games played

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 12 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 32: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Draft Pick Value Chart

DPVC - Chase Stuart

source

httpwwwfootballperspectivecomcreating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 13 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 33: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Published versions

Awad (2010) Goals Versus Threshold (GVT)

Schuckers (2011) 1988-1997LOESS GP

Tulsky (2012) log regressionexponential decay Trade Values

Sprigings (2014) Points Shares log regression

Burtch (2015) Frsquos only PtsGProb( gt x GP)

Schuckers (2016) 2003-09 monotonic nonparametric 1st 7 years TOI

And others eg Josh Flynn (CBJ-internal) arbitrary 1-10 scale eachplayer

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 14 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 34: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

source

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 15 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 35: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 36: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 37: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 38: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 39: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL DPVC

Issues with making a DPVC

Response metric

Functional form parametric or non-parametric

Career totals or subset (first 5 yrs 7yrs career)

Data time window (2003-2010 1970-2013)

Across positions or adjustments (eg TOI for D)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 16 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 40: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

If you look at statistics and point to a column and say rsquoWersquoredrafting this guyrsquo mdash have fun I hope yoursquore in my division- Brian Burke MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2013

Source

http

wwwthestarcomsportsleafs20130301former_toronto_maple_leafs_gm_brian_burke_speaks_out_a_conference

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 17 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 41: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Desjardins (2004-) NHL League Equivalencies (NHLe)

Estimate ρ` where YNHLt = ρ`Y`tminus1

ratio estimator

for each league ` eg SEL OHL QMJHL NCAA

where Y is Points generally

t is year t minus 1 previous year

can be adjusted further by TOI

allows a measure of league quality

need amount of data

Extended by Rob Vollman added by age ρ`age

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 18 36

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 42: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Who to Draft

NHLe from 2014-15

source

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 19 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 43: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

Desjardins is from Winnipeg

Hosted the most popular hockey analytics blog at the time

Panned the selection of Scheifele (over Couturier) at the time and wroteabout it

Though he would argue IMO that is was still a bad bed regardless of theoutcome

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 20 36

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 44: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Who to Draft

coda on Scheifele

ldquoI know that people have come up with all kinds of reasons why Scheifele isnrsquot really a

4-1 longshot to be better than Couturier but Irsquom skeptical - this isnrsquot too far away from

hitting on 18 at the blackjack table on a hunchrdquo - Gabe Desjardins aka Hawerchuk

source httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 21 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 45: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Lawrence and Weissbock (2015) Prospect Cohort Success

Nearest neighbors approach

Inputs League Age Points Height

Generated comparable players (cohort)

Pct Success (gt 200 GP) among cohort

Out of sample testing outperformed teams

Hired by Florida Panthers

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 22 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 46: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schuckers (2016) Draft By Numbers

GAM approach log link (Poisson)

Response TOI or GP (both)

Inputs

Scouting via Central Scouting RankingsPrevious season performance PPG or SVPctDemographics Height Weight PositionLeague from previous season + interactions

Out of sample rank correlation outperform NHL teams

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 23 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 47: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Seppa Schuckers and Rovito (2017) Text Mining to Improve PlayerEvaluation

Used text of scouting reports on players

Sentiment of players

Small subset of players only forwards

Response AHL performance (G+1A)60

Out Of Sample improvement on NHLe

Promising but limited

Seppa and Rovito now work at NHL league office in NYC

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 24 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 48: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Speak (2017) Draft Expected Value

NHLc bull xPS

NHLc is probability of gt 200 NHL GP

NHLc modelled via binary classifier

xPS is expected point shares (hockey-reference)

xPS is regression() on similar metrics to Schuckers (2016)

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 25 36

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 49: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Who to Draft

NHL Player Selection

Schulte Liu amp Li (2018) Model Trees for Exceptional Player Identification

Decision Trees

Response boolean GP gt 0(zero)

Inputs like Schuckers (2016)

plus more draft year predictors

Outperforms out of sample NHL draft order on Spearman corr

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 26 36

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 50: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Other Draft Work

Other Draft-ish Work of Note

Nandakumar

What Does It Mean to Draft PerfectlySurvival Analysis of NHL Prospect TimelinesEvaluating Overage NHL Prospects and the Teams That Draft Them

Hohl SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects (SEAL =Secondary Assist and League)

Sprigings NHL Draft Probability Tool

Schuckers amp Argeris Estimating ROI for NHL Team Scouting

MannyElk cryptic work on draft with NHLe for every league (Bayesian)or other ML

Tulsky eTOI estimated TOI for leagues that donrsquot record TOI

White and Schuckers Shiny App for NHL Drafthttpshinystlawuedu3838hockeyNHLDraftApp

And more online ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 27 36

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 51: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Future Directions

Future Directions

Some possibilities

Womenrsquos Hockey

NHL Combine(noun) Data (happening now in BUF)

More ML Stat Learning Clustering SVM N-Nets

Functional Data Analysis Career Trajectories

Modelling (implicit) value of players for draft trades

Discrimination Drafting and Development

Update Fyffersquos Central Scouting Integrator

Adjusting for team in league quality

Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 28 36

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 52: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Future Directions

OTTHAC19

SAVE THE DATE5th Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference

OTTHAC19November 15-16 2019Carleton U Ottawa ON

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 29 36

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 53: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Future Directions

The End

Thanksschuckersstlawuedu

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 30 36

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 54: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Appendix

Resources

Data wwwEliteprospectscom

Data wwwhockey-referencecom

Articles httpsmetahockeycompublicationsarticles

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 31 36

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 55: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Appendix

References

2011 Consensus draft Linkshttpswwweliteprospectscomdraftnhl-entry-draft2011

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69706

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69703

httpwwwnhlcomicepagehtmid=69704

httpswwwdraftsitecomnhlmock-draft2011s

https

edmontonjournalcomsportshockeynhlcult-of-hockey

2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 32 36

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 56: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Appendix

References

Draft Pick Value Chartshttps

myslustlawuedu~mschsportsSchuckers_NHL_Draftpdf

httpswwwbroadstreethockeycom20134254262594

nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

httpswwwsportsnetcahockeynhl

analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks

httpsrepositoryupenneducgiviewcontentcgiarticle=

1029ampcontext=joseph_wharton_scholars

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpdonttellmeaboutheartblogspotcom201411

nhl-draft-pick-value-charthtml

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 33 36

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 57: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Appendix

References

Who to Draft httpwwwbehindthenetcaprojecting_to_nhlphp

httpwwwbehindthenetcabloglabelsEquivalencieshtml

httphockeyanalyticscomResearch_filesLeague_Equivalenciespdf

httpscanucksarmycom20150526draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model

httpscanucksarmycom20150518draft-theory-on-risk-and-reward-54e5db85-f1c1-4291-9268-830220dff34a

httpstatsportsconsultingcom201605261658

httpwwwhockeyabstractcomthoughtsupdatedtranslationfactors

httpsoilersnationcom20150123development-and-the-200-game-mark

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 34 36

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 58: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Appendix

References

More Who to Drafthttpstatsportsconsultingcommainwp-contentuploads

TextMiningScoutingNHLDraftAnalyticsFeb2017pdf

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117202284326

on-post-junior-success-or-couturier-vs-scheifele

httpswwwarcticicehockeycom20117222287979

scheifele-vs-couturier-redux

httpprospect-statscomblogDEV

httpsarxivorgpdf180208765pdf

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 35 36

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix
Page 59: Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Reviewmyslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/Schuckers_SSC_Calgary2019.pdf · Data Analysis and the NHL Entry Draft: A Review Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence

Appendix

References

Additional Links httpshockey-graphscom20170328

exploiting-variance-in-the-nhl-draft

httpsrepositoryupennedujoseph_wharton_scholars26

httpshockey-graphscom20160615

seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects

httpshockey-graphscom20160608

nhl-draft-probability-toolmore-9010

ccopyM Schuckers (SLU) SSC2019-Schuckers May 28 2019 36 36

  • Motivation
  • Draft Pick Value Chart
  • Who to Draft
  • Other Draft Work
  • Future Directions
  • Appendix

The National Hockey League (NHL) Entry Draft: An ... · Olympic Winter Games and made his debut in the NHL on January 27, 1965 (IIHF.com, 2013). By signing the contract, Sterner and

The National Hockey League (NHL) Entry Draft: An ... · Olympic Winter Games and made his debut in the NHL on January 27, 1965 (IIHF.com, 2013). By signing the contract, Sterner and

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ALL RECORDS by CO/MUNIC - New · PDF filePalisades Interstate Park (NHL, ID#490) NHL: 1/12/1965 See Main Entry / Filed Location: ... 5/18/1979 NR: 8/24/1979 (NR Reference #:

ALL RECORDS by CO/MUNIC - New · PDF filePalisades Interstate Park (NHL, ID#490) NHL: 1/12/1965 See Main Entry / Filed Location: ... 5/18/1979 NR: 8/24/1979 (NR Reference #:

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An NHL Draft Value Pick Chart Michael E. Schuckers* St. Lawrence University Statistical Sports Consulting Canton, NY [email protected] [email protected].

MARK JOHNSON...0 MARK JOHNSON CENTER ... College: ersity of Wisconsin essional Hockey Career: enguins NHL tars NHL ord Whalers NHL t. Louis Blues NHL ew Jersey Devils NHL 1 Milan Saima

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cdn.ontariohockeyleague.com · 28-05-2001  · Eligible 2020 - NHL CS prospect FLA - Prospect Camp (Free Agent) MIN, 155th overall, 2018 NHL Draft NHL Status 2020- NHL "C" rospect

cdn.ontariohockeyleague.com · 28-05-2001  · Eligible 2020 - NHL CS prospect FLA - Prospect Camp (Free Agent) MIN, 155th overall, 2018 NHL Draft NHL Status 2020- NHL "C" rospect

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Entry discrimination in the NHL: Evolution and the KHL effect Tom Christie and Marc Lavoie.