Daniel Brown 2019 Disaster Summit Final...+DUYH\ %LOOLRQ,UPD %LOOLRQ 0DULD %LOOLRQ h v ] ^ & & ] P...

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1 Lessons Learned During the 2017-2018 Hurricane Seasons Lessons Learned During the 2017-2018 Hurricane Seasons Daniel Brown National Hurricane Center Daniel Brown National Hurricane Center Wind That’s What Most Think About Wind That’s What Most Think About Water What Most Do Not Consider Water What Most Do Not Consider U.S. Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Deaths 1963-2012 U.S. Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Deaths 1963-2012 Water accounts for about 90% of the direct deaths Tornado 3% Wind 8% Offshore 6% Other 1% Surf 6% Rain 27% Storm Surge 49% Rappaport 2014 2017-18 Hurricane Seasons 2017-18 Hurricane Seasons 12 Tropical Storms and Hurricanes Affected the U.S. • Five category 5 landfalls – 4 by Irma in the Caribbean – 1 by Maria in the Caribbean • Costliest year on record for the US with $265 Billion in damage – 2 nd (Harvey), 3 rd (Maria) and 5 th (Irma) costliest U.S. individual storms • Several hundred direct and indirect deaths in the US, but NONE known from storm surge 2017 Records & Other Highlights 2017 Records & Other Highlights

Transcript of Daniel Brown 2019 Disaster Summit Final...+DUYH\ %LOOLRQ,UPD %LOOLRQ 0DULD %LOOLRQ h v ] ^ & & ] P...

Page 1: Daniel Brown 2019 Disaster Summit Final...+DUYH\ %LOOLRQ,UPD %LOOLRQ 0DULD %LOOLRQ h v ] ^ & & ] P µ D } Z v ¨ î ò ñ ] o o ] } v ] v u P ^ À o Z µ v ] v ] v ] Z D ] Á Z } v

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Lessons Learned During the 2017-2018 Hurricane Seasons

Lessons Learned During the 2017-2018 Hurricane Seasons

Daniel Brown National Hurricane Center

Daniel Brown National Hurricane Center

WindThat’s What Most Think About

WindThat’s What Most Think About

WaterWhat Most Do Not Consider

WaterWhat Most Do Not Consider

U.S. Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Deaths1963-2012

U.S. Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Deaths1963-2012

Water accounts for about 90% of the

direct deaths

Tornado 3%Wind 8%

Offshore 6%

Other 1%

Surf 6%

Rain27%

Storm Surge49%

Rappaport 2014

2017-18 Hurricane Seasons2017-18 Hurricane Seasons12 Tropical Storms and Hurricanes Affected the U.S. • Five category 5 landfalls

– 4 by Irma in the Caribbean– 1 by Maria in the Caribbean

• Costliest year on record for the US with $265 Billion in damage – 2nd (Harvey), 3rd (Maria) and 5th (Irma) costliest U.S.

individual storms

• Several hundred direct and indirect deaths in the US, but NONE known from storm surge

2017 Records & Other Highlights2017 Records & Other Highlights

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Harvey - $125 Billion Irma - $50 Billion

Maria - $90 BillionUnited States Facts & Figures

• More than $265 billion in damage• Several hundred direct and

indirect deaths• Maria was the strongest hurricane

to make landfall in Puerto Rico since 1928

• Historic rains from Harvey

• TS Alberto struck the U.S. before the official start of the season

• Gordon made landfall along the northern Gulf coast as a strong tropical storm

• Slow-moving Florence produced record setting rainfall in the Carolinas

• Michael (category 4) was the most-intense Florida Panhandle landfall on record

2018 Records & Other Highlights2018 Records & Other Highlights

Florence - $24 Billion Michael - $25 Billion

United States Facts & Figures• Florence produced more than 30 inches of rainfall in North Carolina

breaking a state record set during Floyd (1999) • Michael had the 3rd lowest minimum pressure at landfall in the

continental United States• Michael is the 4th strongest by maximum winds on record in the U.S.• Michael is the strongest U.S. landfalling hurricane since Andrew

(1992)

New GOES-16 Satellite Provided High-Resolution Images of Hurricane Harvey

Hurricane Harvey$125 billion in damage – 68 fatalities

Hurricane Harvey$125 billion in damage – 68 fatalities

• Deadliest hurricane in Texas since 1919

• Storm surge maximum of 8-10 feet near Rockport

• Meandering track after landfall led to historic rainfall – Over 60 inches!

• 57 total tornadoes from Texas to Tennessee

First Issuance of a Storm Surge Warning in the United States

First Issuance of a Storm Surge Warning in the United States

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Storm Surge WarningStorm Surge Warning Quick Transition from Wind/Surgeto Inland Flooding Threat

Quick Transition from Wind/Surgeto Inland Flooding Threat

Hurricane HarveyRecord Setting Rainfall

Hurricane HarveyRecord Setting Rainfall

60.58 inches of rain at Nederland, TX broke the U.S. tropical cyclone rainfall record of 52 inches set in Hawaii in 1950.

Focus on Impacts and HazardsRainfall & Flooding

Focus on Impacts and HazardsRainfall & Flooding

• Potential for extreme rainfall well forecast• NHC began mentioning potential for heavy rainfall a day before Harvey

regenerated in the Gulf (3 days prior to landfall)

Hurricane Irma Hurricane Irma

• Category 4 landfall in the Florida Keys• Category 3 landfall in SW Florida• Significant surge damage in Florida

Keys, and wind impacts across much of the state

Hurricane Irma Hurricane Irma

5 days before landfall

Actual

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Storm Surge Highly Sensitive to Track!Irma 2017

Storm Surge Highly Sensitive to Track!Irma 2017

Observed Track & Simulated Storm Surge

~30 nm

Sanibel Is.

Ft. Myers Beach

~50,000 people with 3+ foot surge

~200,000 people with 3+ foot surge

Forecast Track &Simulated

Storm Surge a Day Before

Landfall

Miami

Miami

Jacksonville, FL Credit: CBS News

Significant Storm Surge Impacts Far from the Center

Significant Storm Surge Impacts Far from the Center

Potential Storm Surge Flooding MapPotential Storm Surge Flooding Map

• Available when a hurricane watch or warning is in effect for the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United states (about 48 hours before winds begin on the coast)

Shows height above ground that the

water could reach

Hurricane Irma Hurricane Irma Over Eighty Indirect Deaths in Florida

Most frequent factors: cardiovascular, loss of electricity, vehicle accident, and evacuation

Hurricane Maria Hurricane Maria

• Category 4 landfall in Puerto Rico, but category 5 winds likely occurred at some elevated locations

• Significant storm surge and devastating rain-induced flooding occurred

• Death toll remains highly uncertain

Hurricane Maria Hurricane Maria Consistent NHC Forecasts

Every NHC forecast predicted landfall

in Puerto Rico.

All but the first predicted major hurricane intensity

at landfall.

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Hurricane Florence Hurricane Florence

• Category 4 over the Atlantic• Category 1 landfall in North Carolina• Significant surge damage in portions of

eastern North Carolina• Storm slowed producing more than

30 inches of rains in parts of North Carolina

Hurricane Florence Unexpected Strengthening

Hurricane Florence Unexpected Strengthening

Category 1 to 4 in 36 hours – no model suggested this would occur

Hurricane Florence Intensity Forecast Difficulty

Hurricane Florence Intensity Forecast Difficulty

NHC missed period of rapid strengthening and then over-forecast intensity near landfall

NHC Intensity Forecasts – Florence (2018)

Hurricane Florence In-house 6- and 7-day Forecasts

Hurricane Florence In-house 6- and 7-day Forecasts

Some long-range forecasts suggested Florence would re-curve over the central Atlantic

NHC Experimental 6- and 7-day forecasts

Track Forecast Success During Florence’s Approach to the U.S.Track Forecast Success During

Florence’s Approach to the U.S.

Some long-range forecasts suggested Florence would re-curve over the central Atlantic

Record Setting Rainfall Predicted Record Setting Rainfall Predicted

5-day Rainfall Forecast

Forecast vs. Observed Rainfall

Observed 5-day Total

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Weather Prediction CenterExcessive Rainfall Graphic

Weather Prediction CenterExcessive Rainfall Graphic

Highlights Risk of Flash Flooding

More from Greg Carbin later today

Hurricane Michael Hurricane Michael

Photo courtesy of Getty Images

Photo courtesy of Georgia National Guard

Pine Tree Damage in AndrewHurricane Michael

Hurricane Andrew

Hurricane Andrew

Comparing Michael and Andrew (1992) Tree Damage

Comparing Michael and Andrew (1992) Tree Damage

Tracking Hurricane Michael Tracking Hurricane Michael

Intensity Forecasting StrugglesNHC Forecasts Major Hurricane but Too Low

Intensity Forecasting StrugglesNHC Forecasts Major Hurricane but Too Low

NHC forecast above guidance but not

high enough

Storm Surge Products Provide“Reasonable Worse-Case” Scenario

Storm Surge Products Provide“Reasonable Worse-Case” Scenario

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“Officials Warn it Could be Storm of the Century”

“Officials Warn it Could be Storm of the Century”

“Life-threatening wind, surge closing in”

Track Forecasts Very Consistent in Showing Threat to the Florida Panhandle

Track Forecasts Very Consistent in Showing Threat to the Florida Panhandle

Improvements in Track Forecasting3-day Forecasts in 1990

Improvements in Track Forecasting3-day Forecasts in 1990

1992

Improvements in Track Forecasting3-day Forecasts Today

Improvements in Track Forecasting3-day Forecasts Today

1992

Shrinking Forecast ConeMeans More Impacts Outside Cone

Shrinking Forecast ConeMeans More Impacts Outside Cone

Challenge Communicating RiskChallenge Communicating Risk

• “This is just a CAT 1 hurricane”• “It has never flooded here before”• “I’ve been through a CAT 3, nothing happened here”• “I saw the new forecast, that GFS thing says it won’t

come here, phew!”• “This is the same surge forecast as the last one and I

didn’t flood then”• “We are going to evacuate for all CAT1 hurricanes from

now on”• “Ah great, I have a GIS map. Finally something accurate”• “We just had our 100 year storm last year”

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Key Messages and Social MediaKey Messages and Social Media

Use of Twitter, Facebook, and Facebook Live to provide live

storm updates

Focus on Hazards & ImpactsNot Track or Category

Focus on Hazards & ImpactsNot Track or Category

• Every storm is different• Must remain focused on

water & wind hazards• NHC probabilistic products

help decision makers • Significant impacts occur

far from the center –outside the cone

• Share only reliable sources of information

Focus on Hazards & ImpactsNot Track or Category

Focus on Hazards & ImpactsNot Track or Category

Hurricane Preparedness Week Actionable Daily Themes

Hurricane Preparedness Week Actionable Daily Themes

• Sunday – Determine Your Risk• Monday – Develop an Evacuation Plan• Tuesday – Assemble Disaster Supplies• Wednesday – Get an Insurance Checkup • Thursday – Strengthen Your Home• Friday –Help Your Neighbor • Saturday – Complete your written hurricane plan

Weather Ready NationWeather Ready NationAddress the “last mile” - connects forecasts to critical

emergency management decisions & individual preparedness

The Past Accurate, consistent forecast with decision

support

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Weather Ready NationHelp Us!

Weather Ready NationHelp Us!

Questions?Questions?


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