DANIEL ALLASIA and CINTIA BERTACCHI UVO
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CLIMATIC INFLUENCE ON RIVER VARIABILITY DANIEL ALLASIA and CINTIA BERTACCHI UVO F R O M INSTITUTE FOR HYDRAULICS RESEARCH AND L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y
description
CLIMATIC INFLUENCE ON RIVER VARIABILITY DANIEL ALLASIA and CINTIA BERTACCHI UVO F R O M INSTITUTE FOR HYDRAULICS RESEARCH AND L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y. DANIEL ALLASIA and CINTIA BERTACCHI UVO. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of DANIEL ALLASIA and CINTIA BERTACCHI UVO
CLIMATIC INFLUENCE ON RIVER VARIABILITY
DANIEL ALLASIA and CINTIA BERTACCHI UVO
F R O M INSTITUTE FOR HYDRAULICS RESEARCH
AND L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y
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L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y
DANIEL ALLASIA and CINTIA BERTACCHI UVO
CLIMATIC INFLUENCE ON RIVER VARIABILITY
INSTITUTE FOR HYDRAULICS RESEARCH AND L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y
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L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y
River Basin
• Upper Paraguay River basin
• Memory
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L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y
River Data – standardized annual average
• River level at Ladário - green• Mean Annual Discharge
– Porto Murtinho– Cuiabá
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L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y
Climate indicators
• SAM – Southern Annular Mode (Thompson and Solomon, 2002)
• PDO – Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Mantua et al., 1997)
• NAO – North Atlantic Oscillation (Hurrell et al., 2002)
• ENSO – El Niño – Southern Oscillation (NINO3.4)
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L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y
Indices
SA
M
SAM
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
SAM
PD
O
PDO
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
PDO
NA
O
NÃO
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
NÃO
PD
O+
NA
O NÃO+PDO
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
NÃO+PDO
NIN
O 3
.4
Nino3.4
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Nino3.4
Ladá
rio
Ladario
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Ladario
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L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y
Principal Components
First Component
Seco
nd C
om
ponent
0.60.50.40.30.20.10.0
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
-0.25
-0.50Nino3.4
NAO+PDO
Ladario
NAO
SAM
PDO
Loading Plot of PDO; ...; Nino3.4
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L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y
Monthly level forecast: Ladário
Forecast from
Equation E R2
Oct LJANt=0.55 LOUT
t-1+25.3 SAMAUGt-1+48.7 0.05 0.71
Sept LJANt=0.48 LSET
t-1+22.6 SAMAUGt-1+32.8 0.29 0.72
Oct LJUNt= -0.03LOUT
t-1+12.7SAMAugt-1 +
0.81LJUNt-1+86,673
0.10 0.74
Set - Aug LJUNt= -0.79 LJUN
t-1+13.03SAMAugt-1 +88.1 0.12 0.74
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L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y
Monthly level forecast: Ladário
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999
ano
co
ta (
cm
)
Vazão prevista com indices climáticos
Vazão observada em Janeiro
Vazão prevista sem indices climáticos
o forecast level with climate index
+ forecast level without climate index
---- observed level
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L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y
Composites
• Monthly anomalous composites for circulation and precipitable water from NCEP Reanalysis
• SAM – ENSO effect extracted.• NAO• ENSO• PDO
-1std > SAM -1std < SAM < 1std SAM > 1std
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L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y
Composite – January SAM > 1 std
Precipitable Water Wind at 200hPa Wind at 850hPa
Janu
ary
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L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y
Composites – February SAM < -1std
Precipitable Water Wind at 200hPa Wind at 850hPa
Febr
uary
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L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y
Composites - February
• SAM < -1std SAM > 1std
Feb
ruar
y
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L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y
Anomalous composite: precipitable water
a) b)
• December NAO>1std January
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L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y
Anomalous composite: precipitable water
• February• NAO < -1std
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L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y
Standardize levels at Ladário and PDO
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Ano
1925 1947 1977 1999
_+ +
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L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y
Effect of climate phenomena on river level at Ladário
North Atlantic SST SALLJ Level Ladário Summer Winter ENSO + + + – ENSO - – + NAO + – o – NAO - + – – SAM + – + SAM - + – PDO + – PDO - + NAtl SST + – – NAtl SST - + +
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L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y
Relation to North Atlantic SST N
AO
NÃO
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
NÃO
NIN
O 3
.4
Nino3.4
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Nino3.4
Ladá
rio
Ladario
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Ladario
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L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y
Conclusions: Climate Phenomena
• ENSO and NAO affects the Ladário level by monitoring the North Atlantic SST
• SAM affects Ladário level by monitoring the circulation
• PDO – long term signal influenced by the other phenomena.
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L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y
Conclusions: Statistical Modelling
• Linear regression capture the relationship with SAM
• Non-linear methods could better represent the non-linear relations among the other climate phenomena.
