Dangers lurking in the bank of mum and dad - …...2016/02/06 · If so, it’s time to take a...
Transcript of Dangers lurking in the bank of mum and dad - …...2016/02/06 · If so, it’s time to take a...
WEALTH THE AUSTRALIAN,SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 2016
theaustralian.com.au/wealth 35V0 - AUSE01Z01MA
Dangers lurking in the bank of mum and dad
Average house prices in Australiafell by 0.5 per cent in the Decem-ber quarter with Sydney sufferingthe largest decline of 3.1 per cent.So what does this mean for parentswho have, or are thinking aboutguaranteeing their children’shome loans?
With a peaking propertymarket and deteriorating housingaffordability, Ramon Mitchell,Director of Acquisitions at Per-formance Property Advisory, hasnoticed an increasing trend ofparents helping their childrenenter the property market via fam-ily guarantees. “We’re particularlynoticing an increase in younger,first-home buyers who are makingthe most of this to get on to theincreasingly difficult to reach firstrung of the property ladder” saysMitchell.
Under normal lending circum-stances, where a borrower doesnot have enough savings to meet a20 per cent deposit plus stampduty, the bank will either declinethe loan or impose Lenders Mort-
gage Insurance, which can costthousands of dollars. Sydneymortgage broker Elaine Lam ex-plains “a family guarantee can be auseful tool that allows borrowersto finance property with little or nodeposit, where their parents arewilling to assist by providing alimited security guarantee securedagainst their home, an investmentproperty or another financialassets such as a term deposit”.
But the procedure can be arisky strategy as it allows borrow-ers to buy property with no cashand no evidence of genuine sav-ings, as long as the bank is satisfiedthe borrower can meet the on-going loan repayments, says Lam.In the event the borrower defaultson the loan, the bank will comeafter the parents for any losses andcosts that the bank incurs.
The benefit of a family guaran-tee lie solely with the borrower,not the guarantor, says JosephAlam, head of retail business atfinance broker Lendfin. “It cantake upwards of 10 years to save fora deposit in some areas of Austra-lia and during this time the prop-erty market is likely to have liftedsubstantially, meaning the bor-rower keeps chasing ever shiftinggoalposts”.
Mitchell has also witnessed the
use of family guarantees to helpchildren “buy into aspirationalsuburbs and avoid having to buy ata lower price then sell and upgradea few years later, triggering around of real estate agent fees,stamp duty and legal costs”.
Sydney couple Daniel andAlyssa James recently bought ahouse-and-land package in Syd-ney’s northwest with the help of afamily guarantee from Alyssa’sparent. The couple noted that “thefamily guarantee meant that we
A parental guarantee is one way to get in the market but it comes with its own set of risks
JAMES GERRARD PROPERTY
could upgrade homes sooner andallow us to be closer to Sydneythen we currently are”.
For parents who already have aguarantee in place, Alam suggestsa few pointers:
● The property is revaluedevery two years. If there is enoughequity, the bank will release theparents from any liability of theoriginal loan.
● If there isn’t enough equity torelease the parents, Alam advisesthe parents and children have a
frank talk on how long the guaran-tee is to remain in place and agreeon an increased loan repaymentschedule so that the children canreduce the debt to the point wherethe parents can exit the guaranteearrangement with the bank.
● For parents looking to pro-vide a family guarantee to theirchildren for a property purchase,Lam advises that each partyunderstand their obligationsunder the contract, and in particu-lar, the parents should seek legal
advice on the repercussions if thechildren’s marriage dissolves.
North Shore Property Salesprincipal Trevor Chan recom-mends “that an agreement shouldbe drawn up between the parentsand children to handle any poten-tial situations that could arise inthe future to avoid future dis-putes”. Alam of Lendfin adds that“parents should speak with theirchildren about the large responsi-bilities involved and ask how sta-ble their employment situation is.”
Not all banks allow parentalguarantees, while others havestrict rules. Lam recommends thatprospective borrowers thinkingabout a family guarantee first seekadvice from a mortgage broker tofind out their options and thendiscuss the potential scenarioswith their parents.
James Gerrard is the principal and director of independently owned Sydney financial planning firm FinancialAdvisor.com.au
DANIEL WILKINS
A parental guarantee can be a risky strategy as it allows borrowers to buy property with no cash and no evidence of genuine savings
Energy market fears feed into bonds, equities
It has become clear over this sum-mer that markets desire clarityand some degree of certainty sur-rounding the future of the globaleconomy.
Traditionally, when it becomesapparent that events are more sig-nificant than a shorter-term cor-rection, the key conversationamong professionals in Austra-lia’s ultra-high-net-worth wealthadvisory sector quickly shifts tofixed-income investing, seen bymost as the prudent and defensiveplace to turn.
This time around, though, theglobal investor appears to becaught on the horns of a dilemmabecause both Australian andinternational fixed-income fav-ourites, such as government orcorporate bonds, are both expens-ive and unduly volatile. And thereis little point turning to a volatileasset class that presents risksequivalent to those found in equi-ties (which also undeniably offerlower longer-term returns).
Since August 2015’s so-called“Rates Riot”, when marketsrevolted against the idea of a USinterest rate “lift-off” and also
reports of Chinese, Saudi and Rus-sian Sovereign Wealth Funds sell-ing large parcels of US 10-yearTreasury holdings to support cur-rencies pegged to either the USdollar or energy prices have raisedeyebrows even in quarters such asthe International Monetary Fund.
When it comes to global en-ergy, Ibe Kachikwu, Nigeria’s Pet-roleum Resources Minister lastmonth at Davos astutely remind-ed us that, “Everyone emphasisesprice but (oil) price is really not theissue, it is the future of the oil in-dustry that is the issue … It is awhole lot more than price”.
And he was right. As bond markets in effect re-
flect the industry’s broad compo-sition, what these statementsmean for fixed income and specifi-cally bond investors focusing onenergy markets is determiningwhich players will ultimately winand what are their probabilities ofsucceeding. The historically highlevels of volatility are also reflect-ing a concern about this predica-
ment, as after all, it is typically therole of equity not bond markets toseparate the wheat from the chaff.
Also remembering that fixed-income investments are tradition-ally seen as a shelter during vol-atile times, it has becomeunsettling to many to now acceptthat this asset class, in particular, isthe actual eye of the global storm.
As the graph highlights, thechanges to energy markets seensince the “Oil Wars” began in late2014 have immediately and di-rectly affected US (and other) highyielding fixed-income markets.
But they have also by exten-sion, transmitted to interbank cre-dit markets, which now has theresult of shifting the corporatecreditworthiness of large Austra-lian mining and energy business-es, such as BHP and Origin.
Despite these concerns, Deut-sche Bank (Australia) this weekextended their buy recommen-dation on both Origin and BHPHybrids based on these compan-ies’ underlying credit fundamen-tals and valuation.
What the “credit crunch” of2008 taught Australian local in-vestors is that it is always import-ant to keep a close eye on volatilecredit markets and ensure thatthose levels of volatility do not in-fect the equity portion of relatedbusinesses, in this instance a com-pany such as BHP.
Larkin Group is an ultra high net wealth adviser focusing on high- yielding global investments. www.larkingroup.com.au
STIRLING LARKINGLOBAL INVESTOR
when Chinese equity marketspeaked and then fell, AustralianGovernment Bonds have led aglobal fixed-income rally that hasleft benchmark yields at danger-ous levels. This, in part, reflects thethree well justified concerns ofglobal investors at this time:
●Attention on Chinese, US,eurozone and Australian interestrate disparities
●Global Energy price patterns●Questions surrounding the
depth of liquidity in the most im-portant fixed income benchmark,the US 10-year Treasury Bill mar-ket.
Diverging interest rate policiesare not unprecedented but thecombination of all three is. What’smore, with so much continued un-certainty UHNW global investorshave been reappraising core, in-vestment grade and also highyielding bond investments.
Even though the US 10-yearTreasury Bill market is thedeepest of all international mar-kets across any asset class, news
Colour of money: blue chips end in the red
As we begin 2016 you may be hop-ing for a better year than last year.
If so, it’s time to take a hard,long look at your portfolio.
Probability suggests that it isfull of blue chips like the big banks,Telstra, Woolworths and perhapsBHP and Rio Tinto. As an aside, ofcourse you’ve never sold them be-cause you’d have ‘‘to pay tax’’.
Now take a look at the returnthey achieved for you last year. Itwasn’t very impressive was it?After all, the ASX finished the lastcalendar year virtually un-changed.
But step back a little furtherand you will find that the returnsfrom many of these companieshave been modest at best, evenover a longer period.
Look at Telstra: its share pricetoday is lower than where it was 15years ago.
How about Woolworth? Well,the hare price is lower than whereit was eight years ago.
Not to mention BHP and NAB,where the share prices are lowerthan many, many years ago.
What if the problem isn’t any-thing but the very stocks you con-sider blue chips themselves?
May I suggest that conven-tional or traditional blue-chipcompanies — those big stalwartsthat have been around foreverand are believed to have reliabledividends — aren’t blue-chipcompanies at all.
Your goal as an investor shouldsimply be to purchase, at a rationalprice, a part interest in an easilyunderstandable business whereearnings are virtually certain to bematerially higher five, 10 and 20years from now. If you put togeth-er a portfolio of companies whereaggregate earnings march upwardover the years, then so also will theportfolio’s market value.
Back in 2014 the income re-cession — investors’ cash wasearning zilch in term deposits —forced investors to chase higher-yielding dividend shares. Their ef-forts appeared to be self-reinforcing, as the buying of thosewho followed in 2015 rewardedearly adopters.
Unsurprisingly, with share pri-ces elevated but unsupported by‘‘aggregate earnings marching up-wards’’, they eventually collapsed,causing investors to lose valuableretirement buying power.
All of this can be avoided if in-vestors understand how a com-pany increases in value.
Over the long run, the shareprice will follow the underlying orintrinsic value of a company, so in-stead of trying to predict prices,you can turn your attention awayfrom the so called ‘‘stockmarket’’and simply spend your time iden-tifying businesses that will in-
10 years, it may still trade for quad-ruple the amount deposited($240m) and the buyer who paid$40m would be satisfied with theirreturn.
We can replace the bank ac-count analogy with a companyand by renaming the money in theaccount ‘‘equity’’ and the interestrate ‘‘return on equity’’ we havethe ingredients for a true blue-chip company.
A true blue-chip is a companyable to retain a large portion of itsprofits and redeploy those re-tained profits at a very high rate ofreturn.
True blue chips aren’t alwaysbig; in fact often they’re small andmid-cap companies.
So now take another look ateach of the stocks in your portfolioand find out what percentage oftheir earnings they have paid outto you as dividends.
If the percentage is very high, itmight mean you’ve enjoyed somesatisfying income but that incomehas been at the expense of futureearnings growth.
Importantly, it’s earningsgrowth that will drive the marketvalue of your portfolio.
If thus far you have been chas-ing dividend yields from tra-ditional blue chips thinking yourwealth will be protected, 2016 mayjust be the year to start afresh witha ‘‘rational’’ approach.
Roger Montgomery is founder and chief investment officer of the Montgomery Fund. www.montinvest.com
ROGER MONTGOMERYcrease in value. Think of a specialbank account with $10 million de-posited and ready to earn itsowner 20 per cent per annum ininterest forever.
Assume this obviously specialbank account retains all of its in-terest and is allowed to compoundfor a decade or more.
If we auctioned it today, I sus-pect that 20 per cent interestwould be too mouth-watering toignore and frenzied bidding maysee the $10m account sell for dou-ble, triple or even quadruple the
amount of money deposited. If itsold for $40m, or four times theequity at the time of purchase,would the buyer have purchased ablue-chip investment?
In 10 year’s time, the accountwill have over $60m depositedand it would still be earning 20 percent.
A great deal of value has beencreated simply by the passing oftime and the ability of the bank ac-count to retain its earnings and re-deploy them at a high rate ofreturn.
If we auction the account after
Turn your attention away from the stockmarket and identify businessesthat will increasein value
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