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savills

dandaloochild care opportunity1 dandaloo court, pimpama investment summary

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dandaloochild care opportunity

- - savills savills.com.au

contents.E x e c u t i v e S u m m a r y 4

T h e O p p o r t u n i t y 6

T h e O f f e r i n g 8 - 9

L o c a t i o n M a p 1 0 - 1 1

S a l e M e t h o d 1 3

A p p e n d i x A - M a r k e t A n a l y s i s 1 5

DISCLAIMER: Although every care has been taken in preparing this report, Savills do not verify its accuracy. Information, opinions and forecasts in this report depend on the accuracy of any information and assumptions on which they are based, and on prevailing market conditions, for which Savills do not accept responsibility. No representations or warranties of any nature whatsoever are given, intended or implied about this report, any information, opinions and forecasts contained within this report or the accuracy or enforceability of any documents referred to in this report. Savills will not be liable for any omissions or errors. Savills will not be liable, including for negligence, for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential losses or damages arising out of or in any way connected with use of or reliance on anything in thisr eport. This report does not form part of or constitute an offer or contract. Recipients of this report should rely on their own enquiries about its accuracy. All images are only for illustrative purposes.

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executive summary.Property Address1 Dandaloo Court, Pimpama

Real Property DescriptionL1 on SP151391

Land Area4,006m²*

Local Government & ZoningRural Residential under the Gold Coast City Council

Sale MethodExpressions of Interest

Savills (QLD) Pty Ltd has been exclusively retained to market the sale of the Dandaloo Childare opportunity by way of Expressions of Interest.

Contact Please direct all enquiries to the following agents:

Joseph GanimSenior Executive Savills HotelsM: +61 447 169 011Ph: 07 3002 8944E: [email protected]

Robert DunneDirectorSavills Commercial Sales M: +61 4 8 888 840Ph: 07 3002 8806E: [email protected]

All images are illustrative only

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Savills QLD is pleased to present to the market, a 4,006sq m corner block containing an existing dwelling, with Development Approval for a 146 place childcare facility, located within one of SE Queensland’s fastest growing regions.

Placed on the outskirts of a growing residential catchment, with Ormeau State School as its centre piece, the block also boasts almost immediate proximity to Pacific Highway access, as well as its corner proximity allowing for ample access and egress necessary for childcare drop-off and pick-up points.

A Market Analysis outlining this and more, done by the current owners through reputable consulting firm Urban Economics, is attached to the Investment Summary for your perusal.

the opportunity.

AMENDMENTSISSUE DATE SUBJECT AUTHORISED

050

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MASTER SITE NUMBER CLIENT REFERENCE NUMBER

DRAWING NUMBER ISSUE

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DISCIPLINE TEAM LEADER

AUTHORISED FOR ISSUE

DATE

DATE

DATE

DRAWING TITLE

- -

PROJECT NAME

JAMESBLACKETARCHITECT

SCHEMATIC DESIGN ONLYNOT FOR CONSTRUCTION

Note! 3D Perspective Views are indicative only and may notshow full detail required for construction.

7/03 /2

0171

0 :16:4

3AM 1 Dandaloo CRT, PIMPAMA. GOLD COAST, QLD

D07.03.2017

07.03.2017

1638 SD A001.01

DANDALOO EARLY LEARNING CENTRE

PERSPECTIVES & SCHEDULE OF COLOURS

JB

RL

JB

DECEMBER 2016

Perspective 11

Perspective 22

- 28.02.2017 Issued for approval RLA 01.03.2017 Issued for approval RLB 02.03.2017 Revised Perspective RLC 03.03.2017 Issue for RFI RLD 07.03.2017 Issue for approval RL

SCHEDULE OF MATERIALS, COLOURS AND FINISHES

ELEMENT MATERIAL FINISH COLOUR

Roof sheeting Steel Colorbond Colorbond Shale GreyGutters/Fascia Steel Colorbond Colorbond Night SkyDownpipes Steel Galvanised -

Walls - Horizontal Boards Compressed FC Painted low sheen Dulux Great Serpant Walls - Vertical Panelling White Compressed FC Painted low sheen Grand Piano QuarterWalls - Vertical Panelling Grey Compressed FC Painted low sheen to match Shale GreyWalls - Vertical Panelling Orange Compressed FC Painted low sheen Dulux Peanut ButterWalls - Vertical Panelling Yellow Compressed FC Painted low sheen Dulux Sunbound

Retaining walls Concrete designer block Smooth Boral Paperbark

Columns Steel Galvanised -

Doors - Timber Timber Painted gloss to match Shale GreyDoors - Roller Door Steel Colorbond Shale GreyDoor Frames Steel Powdercoated Duratec Zeus Lunar Eclipse SatinDoor Frames Entry Aluminium Powdercoated Duratec Intensity Moonlight SatinWindow Frames Steel Powdercoated Duratec Zeus Lunar Eclipse Satin

Timber fences Timber Painted Dulux Recycled

Outline and Location Indicative Only

Artist’s Impression of Completed Building

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On the strength of all positives to come from market research in the area, the current owners have aimed for a 146 child placement facility, placing its capabilities as being one of the highest in the region. The attached Urban Economics Market Analysis bolsters this with further facts that lend to the developments potential, with all data aiming for a 2019 build, in keeping with their research and findings. A sale will transfer freehold ownership of the subject block and it’s current improvements, as well as all Development Approvals attached to it.

The Development Approval in place means work can commence soon after purchase, with feasibility projections mapping an 84%* occupancy once open, with 100%* occupancy forecasted within 18-24 months. You will notice the detailed Floor Plan of the centre on this page, which aims to utilise the entire block, providing significant space for all age themed rooms, drop-offs, play areas and centre administration.

All documentation, elevations and correspondence approved for development, can be obtained from the Exclusive Agents listed in the Sales Method section of this Summary.

the offering.

All Images llustrative Only

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Artist’s Impression of Completed Building

POURED IN PLACE RUBBER SOFTFALLto comply with AS:4422-1996

SHADE SAILS OVER SOFTFALL AREAS







1.8m

H TI

MBE

RPA

LIN

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NCE

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1.8mH TIMBER PALING FENCE TO BOUNDAY





Driv

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Req

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A204.013

A204.014

A204.012

A204.011

41 m²0-1 yr OLD12 + 3 STAFF

12 m²STORE

10 m²AMEN.

23 m²KITCHEN

38 m²0-1yr OLD12 + 3 STAFF

38 m²1-2yr OLD12 + 3 STAFF 16 m²

AMEN.8 m²STORE

PWD

42 m²1-2yr OLD12 + 3 STAFF16 m²

AMEN.46 m²2-3yr OLD15 + 3 STAFF17 m²

AMEN.46 m²2-3yr OLD15 + 3 STAFF

40 m²1-2yr OLD12 + 3 STAFF 15 m²

AMEN. 40 m²1-2yr OLD12 + 3 STAFF



21 m²AMENITIES

8 m²ST.

301 m²

COVERED PLAYAREA 2

CORRIDOR

273 m²

COVERED PLAYAREA 1

BINS

BINS

12

RETAINING WALL

RETAINING WALL

RETA

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MIRAMBEENA DRIVE

PROPOSED PATH

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RL 31.500

RL 32.300

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RL 34.470

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FALL

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1A205.01

RL 34.000

13 m²STORE

18 m²OFFICE

ST.ST.

18 m²STAFF

ADMIN.

209 m²

COVERED PLAYAREA 3

252 m²

COVERED PLAYAREA 4

RL 34.470

SIGNAGE

RL 34.000

RL 33.000

SCRE

EN W

ALL

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EN W

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RETAINING WALL

BIKE

3 12

123

WATERTANK

WATERTANK

STAGE 2

8 m²STORE

6 m²STORE

13 m²STORE

Dashed lineindicate roofover

4A205.01

Retaining wall withsafety fence/ handrail

Retaining wall withsafety fence/ handrail

BIKE

Retaining wall with safety fence/ handrail

2600

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Council requiredland dedication

N0

1:1001 2m

AMENDMENTSISSUE DATE SUBJECT AUTHORISED

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MASTER SITE NUMBER CLIENT REFERENCE NUMBER

DRAWING NUMBER ISSUE

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A1 SIZEDRAWN

DISCIPLINE TEAM LEADER

AUTHORISED FOR ISSUE

DATE

DATE

DATE

DRAWING TITLE

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PROJECT NAME

JAMESBLACKETARCHITECT

SCHEMATIC DESIGN ONLYNOT FOR CONSTRUCTION

10/03

/2017

1 1:49

:42 A

M 1 Dandaloo CRT, PIMPAMA. GOLD COAST, QLD

E10.03.2017

10.03.2017

1638 SD A202.01

DANDALOO EARLY LEARNING CENTRE

FLOOR PLAN

JB

RL

JB

DECEMBER 2016

1 : 200A204.01Floor Plan1

SITE DEVELOPMENT INFORMATION

LAP: NOT APPLICABLECITY: GOLD COASTPARISH: PIMPAMACOUNTY: WARDRPD: LOT 14 on RP148435SITE AREA: 4005.72m²

PROPOSED SITE COVER:STAGE 1: 967.6m² = 24.15%GFA-GF 755m²FF 122m²

STAGE 2: 1231.92m² = 30.20%GFA 187m²

TOTAL PROPOSED SITE COVER:STAGE 1+2 30.20%

PROPOSED AREAS:

STAGE 1

ROOM 1: 41.00m² - (12 Children)ROOM 2: 38.00m² - (12 Children)ROOM 3: 38.00m² - (12 Children)ROOM 4: 42.00m² - (12 Children)ROOM 5: 46.00m² - (15 Children)ROOM 6: 46.00m² - (15 Children)ROOM 7: 71.00m² - (22 Children)

STAGE 2

ROOM 8: 76.00m² - (22 Children)ROOM 9: 40.00m² - (12 Children)ROOM 10: 40.00m² - (12 Children)

TOTAL GFA: 1064.00m²JUNIOR PLAY: 000m² - (-- Children) MIDDLE PLAY: 000m² - (-- Children) SENIOR PLAY: 000m² - (-- Children)

STAGE 1

CHILDREN 100STAFF --

STAGE 2

CHILDREN 46STAFF --

TOTAL CHILDREN: 146 Enrolled Children TOTAL STAFF: 28 Staff

CAR PARKING: 60REQUIRED CARPARKS:1 per Employee: 301 per 5 Children Enrolled: 30

TOTAL ACTUAL CARPARKS: 66

ONSITEPWD Carparks: 1Single Carparks: 24Double Carparks: 26Motorcycle Parks: 6Bicycle Parks: 6OFFSITEStreet parking: 16

BUILDING CLASSIFICATION: 9b

TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION: C

- 09.12.2016 RLA 01.03.2017 RLB 03.03.2017 RLC 10.03.2017

Issue to Townplanner Issued for approval Issue for RFIGradient and DimensionsNotations

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*Approximately

location map.

Pacific Motorway

ORMEAU H I L L S

ORMEAU

PIMPAMA

NORWELL

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 Jan-26

Pimpama Population Growth (Projected)

Population Dwellings

major developments.

Residential activity within the Pimpama area has demonstrated building approvals in excess of 1,400 dwellings in both 2015/16 and 2016/17, accelerating growth within the Pimpama area. Population growth in Pimpama has substantially exceeded State government projections with 10,887 persons estimated to be living within the Pimpama as at the 2016 Census, a population not anticipated by the State Government to be living within the area until at least 2021.

The graph “Pimpama Population Growth (Projected)” summarises the historic and projected population growth for the defined Catchment Area. Population estimates are based on the results of the 2011 and 2016 ABS Population and Household

Census and subsequent building approval data. Projections have been derived on the basis of a review of recent dwelling activity and an assessment of vacant residential land capacity within the Catchment Area. Between 2017 and 2021, it is projected that the population of the Total Catchment Area would increase by 9,940 persons.

You are invited to peruse the attached appendix item titled Market Analysis: Dandaloo Childcare Centre, for further information regarding Pimpama and its population.

Source: Urban Economics – Market Analysis: Dandaloo Childcare Centre

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SITE

Location and Outline Indicative Only

Souce: Australia Bureau of Statistics, 2016

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sale method. The pre-sale of the Dandaloo Child Care opportunity will proceed by way of Expressions of Interest.

INSPECTIONSSite inspections are encouraged and can be arranged through the agents listed below.

To the fullest extent permitted by law, the Vendor reserves all rights relating to the sale process for the property. Specifically, the Vendor reserves its rights to exercise its absolute discretion to: (a) Withdraw from, postpone or extend the sale process or any proposed sale;(b) Accept or decline any offer for proposed purchase;(c) Exchange contracts at any time, either conditionally or unconditionally, for a proposed sale;(d) Agree or disagree to the granting of any exclusive due diligence period to any party, or parties, it prefers; and(e) At any time modify the terms, conditions, material or any other relevant information relating to any proposed sale.

Joseph GanimSenior Executive Savills HotelsM: +61 447 169 011Ph: 07 3002 8944E: [email protected]


All images are illustrative only

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Joseph Ganim Senior Executive Savills HotelsM: +61 447 169 011Ph: 07 3002 8944E: [email protected]


Market Analysis: Dandaloo Child Care

Centre

Prepared on behalf of:

Dandaloo

Prepared by:

Kerrianne Meulman Managing Director

Joshua Binkley

Consultant

November 2017

Job No. 16028

Urban Economics Level 10, 87 Wickham Tce

Spring Hill QLD 4000 (ph) 07 3839 1400

[email protected] www.urbaneconomics.com.au

Warranty

This report has been based upon the most up to date readily available information at this point in time, as documented in this report. Urban Economics has applied due professional care and diligence in accordance with generally accepted standards of professional practice in undertaking the analysis contained in this report from these information sources. Urban Economics shall not be liable for damages arising from any errors or omissions which may be contained within these information sources. As this report involves future market projections which can be affected by a number of unforeseen variables, they represent our best possible estimates at this point in time and no warranty is given that this particular set of projections will in fact eventuate.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.0 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 1

1.1 BACKGROUND ........................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 STUDY OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................... 1

2.0 THE SUBJECT SITE ............................................................................................................ 2

2.1 THE SUBJECT SITE & PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT ............................................................................ 2

3.0 THE EXISTING NETWORK ................................................................................................... 3

3.1 EXISTING CHILD CARE CENTRES .................................................................................................. 3 3.2 PROPOSED OR APPROVED CENTRES ............................................................................................ 4

4.0 CATCHMENT AREA ANALYSIS .............................................................................................. 5

4.1 CATCHMENT AREA DEFINITION .................................................................................................. 5 4.2 POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH .................................................................................... 7

5.0 DEMAND ANALYSIS .......................................................................................................... 9

6.0 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................... 11

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1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND Urban Economics has been commissioned to examine the supply implications as to feasibility for a proposed child care centre at 1 Dandaloo Court, Pimpama. This Analysis seeks to assess the ‘gap’ in the market for child care places, critiques the demand for child care places and the likely performance of a child care centre on the subject site. Urban Economics is an economic and market research consultancy, specialising in the property sector. Based in South East Queensland we have a strong understanding of the dynamics and drivers of the regional economy and the planning framework in which it operates.

1.2 STUDY OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY The overall objective of this research is to examine the potential performance of the proposed child care centre in Pimpama. In meeting this objective, Urban Economics has undertaken the following tasks:

• Identified the existing mix of child care centres within the surrounding Pimpama area

• Identified the approved and proposed child care centres within the area, noting

number of places, location and age groups (where available)

• Defined a catchment area for the child care in Pimpama

• Examined the population within the catchment area with particular regard to the

number of children aged 0-4 years

• Examined the profile of the community

• Assessed the demand for long day care places within the catchment area

• Assessed the potential share of the demand for long day care that could be captured

at the subject site

• Assessed the implications for the number of child care places that are supported on

the subject site

• Examined the implications for occupancy rates in 2019 based on the demand-supply

gap analysis.

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2.0 THE SUBJECT SITE

2.1 THE SUBJECT SITE AND PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT The subject site is described as Lot 14 on RP148435 or 1 Dandaloo Crt, Pimpama. The site includes an existing dwelling and is approximately 4,006m2. The site is at the entrance to an established large lot residential area known as Canowindra Estate, with frontage to the east-west connecting Mirambeena Drive which links Pimpama to Ormeau Hills and Kingsholme across the Pacific Motorway (M1). The site offers high levels of convenience and accessibility for residents of the northern Pimpama area, and the eastern Ormeau area. FIGURE 2.1: The Subject Site

Source: Nearmaps showing September 16th 2017

The approved development seeks to include a child care centre supporting up to 146-places, including a range of activities and facilities including chicken run. Stage 1 of the proposed development could comprise the redevelopment of the existing house on the property, with the capacity to accommodation 100 children, with a second stage of 46 additional places able to be delivered in line with market demand. A 2019 opening has been assumed, with this analysis assuming the scenario to open all 146 places as one stage.

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3.0 THE EXISTING NETWORK This Chapter examines the factors influencing the proposed child care centre and provides an overview of the existing and future network of centres relevant to the subject site.

3.1 EXISTING CHILD CARE CENTRES

TABLE 3.1 lists child care centres proximate to the subject site within the areas of Pimpama, Ormeau, Ormeau Hills, Kingsholme and Norwell. TABLE 3.1: Existing Child Care Centres

Centre Name Location Total places

Age Groups

Other Comments

Driving Distance from site

(km)

Rates

Subject Site 1 Dandaloo Crt, Pimpama

146 - - -

Goodstart Early Learning - Pimpama

46 Mirambeena Dr, Pimpama

116 6 weeks -

6 years

Opposite Ormeau State School

1.0 $79.20- $87.90

Bright Horizons Child Care Centre

1 Landsdowne Drive Ormeau Hills

115 6weeks-6

years

Within Stockland Ormeau Ridge Estate. Opened

2017 2.3

$89 36mths+

Infants $97

Noah's Ark Preschool and Child Care Centre

198 Pimpama-Jacobs Well Rd, Pimpama

104 6 weeks - 12 years

Within the King's Christian College

No vacancies 3.6

Pimpama Early Learning

166 Yawalpah Rd, Pimpama

147 6 weeks -

6 years

Opposite second future primary school site

Vac M/T for -24 mths Vac M only 25-35mths

5.5

Petit Early Learning Journey

28A Dixon Drive 105 6 weeks to pre-school

Proximate to Pimpama Central/Woolworths

Opened 2017 6.6

$95 <3yrs $92 >3yrs

Eclipse Early Education

51 Dixon Dr Pimpama

125 6 weeks – preschool

Opened 2017 7.0

The Goodstart Early Learning Centre on Mirambeena Drive is the only existing long day care centre in the northern Pimpama area to the east of the Highway, with the new Bright Horizons in Ormeau Ridge now offering 115 places within Stockland’s Ormeau Ridge community to the west of the M1. The Goodstart Early Learning Centre is located opposite the Ormeau State School and shares parking and access arrangements with the school. This facility has been established for some time, but does offer attractively landscaped surroundings as well as convenience with drop-off facilities at the state school. The centre is also proximate to the rail station again offering convenience for commuting parents. The Lutheran Ormeau Rivers District School (LORDS) also includes the Little Wonders Kindergarten which accepts children turning 4 by June 30th of their enrolment year.

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Bright Horizons has opened in Stockland’s Ormeau Ridge estate during 2017, operating a 115 place centre, with Petit Early Learning Journey and Eclipse Early Education Centre on Dixon Drive Pimpama also opening in 2017.

3.2 PROPOSED OR APPROVED CENTRES

• Leda’s Pimpama Village to the south of the subject site proposes a child care centre within the 634 lot estate. The masterplan identifies one large potential site, but this is likely to be at later stages of the development of the Estate, if it proceeds. We are unaware of any operator or approval for this proposed centre.

• An approved 140 place child care centre Kidi Kingdom is proposed within The Heights estate.

• 111 place Edge Early Learning Centre is under construction opposite the Pimpama State Primary College.

Approvals together the existing centres and the 146 place Dandaloo Centre, would represent a supply of 1,109 places within the Pimpama and Ormeau Hills area by 2021, plus the Pimpama Village centre proposal if it proceeds.

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4.0 CATCHMENT AREA ANALYSIS

This Chapter examines population and household growth projections and critiques the key

demographic and socio-economic features that are likely to characterise the defined

Catchment Area as they pertain to demand for child care services; utilising data from the

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and Queensland Government Statisticians Office (QGSO).

4.1 CATCHMENT AREA DEFINITION

The Catchment Area is the area from which the proposed childcare centre may draw has been defined on the basis of:

• Natural and engineered boundaries including the Pacific Motorway (M1), Brisbane-

Gold Coast rail line, and the Pimpama River;

• Statistical Area Level 1’s (SA1) which are the smallest geographical units for which

relevant Census household and population data is published;

• The existing network of childcare centres proximate to the subject site;

• School catchment areas and particularly the enrolment catchment for Ormeau State

School;

• Commuter and employment networks of the surrounding area;

• The scale, size and how the proposed development would function; and

• The location of relevant approved and under construction developments.

The Catchment Area is illustrated in FIGURE 4.1.

A Primary Catchment Area has been defined as the Statistical Area 2 of Pimpama together

with The Heritage Park estate to the west of the Motorway.

A Secondary Catchment Area has been defined to incorporate the communities of Ormeau

Ridge, Willowvale and Montego Hills to the west of the M1. Residents of this area would have

the choice of accessing child care at Ormeau Hills, or on typical ant-routes such as the rail

station and Ormeau State School. The subject site would offer an alternative destination for

convenient access to child care for residents of this Secondary Catchment Area.

.

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FIGURE 4.1: The Catchment Area

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4.2 POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH

Active residential estates within and immediately adjacent to the Pimpama area:

• Montego Hills is a 155 lot acreage estate developed by Villaworld

• 139 lots remain as at 30 June 2017 within Stockland’s 660 lot Ormeau Ridge estate

• Leda’s 634 lot Pimpama Village anticipated to comprise some 784 dwellings

• The Heights – approximately 1,000 dwellings

• Mirvac’s 2,200 lot masterplanned Gainsborough Greens estate

• QM Property’s Pacific Cove estate anticipated to house 500 dwellings

• The Meadows 1,120 lot development Residential activity within the Pimpama area has demonstrated building approvals in excess of 1,400 dwellings in both 2015/16 and 2016/17, accelerating growth within the Pimpama area. Population growth in Pimpama has substantially exceeded State government projections with 10,887 persons estimated to be living within the Pimpama as at the 2016 Census, a population not anticipated by the State Government to be living within the area until at least 2021. TABLE 4.1 summarises the historic and projected population growth for the defined Catchment Area. Population estimates are based on the results of the 2011 and 2016 ABS Population and Household Census and subsequent building approval data. Projections have been derived on the basis of a review of recent dwelling activity and an assessment of vacant residential land capacity within the Catchment Area. TABLE 4.1: Population and Household Growth for Trade Area 2011 – 2026

Source: ABS Census 2011, Building Approval Data, QGSO, Urban Economics’s Estimates

Between 2017 and 2021, it is projected that the population of the Total Catchment Area would increase by 9,940 persons.

JUNE Incr. JUNE Incr JUNE Incr JUNE Incr JUNE

AREA 2011 P.A. 2016 P.A. 2017 P.A. 2021 P.A. 2026

(ACT) (EST) (EST) (PROJ) (PROJ)

Pimpama

Population 3,597 24.8% 10,887 28.6% 14,002 12.9% 22,770 5.2% 29,270Dwellings 1,276 454 3,546 1,000 4,546 700 7,346 450 9,596Persons per Household2.82 3.07 3.08 3.10 3.05

Secondary

Population 2,166 14.5% 4,266 8.5% 4,630 5.8% 5,800 3.6% 6,920Dwellings 699 130 1,350 120 1,470 100 1,870 80 2,270Persons per Household3.10 3.16 3.15 3.10 3.05

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At the time of the 2016 Census some 12.9% of the Primary Catchment Area was aged 0-4 years, compared with 10.9% in 2011, and 8.3% of the Secondary Catchment Area was aged 0-4 years (7% in 2011), demonstrating strong growth in young families moving to the Pimpama and surrounding area. Based on the population growth within the Catchment Area, the following TABLE anticipates growth of the population aged 0-4 years:

TABLE 4.2: Children Aged 0-4 2011 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Aged 0-4 544 1,758 2,209 2,500 2,790 3,080 3,370 3,490 3,620 Source: ABS, Urban Economics’s Estimates

TABLE 4.3 lists births registered within the Pimpama SA2s between 2011 and 2015, indicative of substantially above average birth rates relative to the size of the resident population in these areas.

TABLE 4.3: Births by SA2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Pimpama 66 107 111 136 163

Source: ABS

The following TABLE summarises enrolments at the local primary schools.

TABLE 4.4: School Enrolments

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ormeau SS 1,020 895 881 853 858 842 820 772 826

LORDS - - - - 115 219 292 383 471

Pimpama State College

- - - - - - - 183

360

Pimpama SS 323 245 257 271 339 464 500 545 590

Source: My School

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5.0 DEMAND ANALYSIS

This Chapter examines the potential demand for a child care centre at the subject site. Demand considers the number of children within the Catchment Area age 0-4 years, workforce participation rates (particularly for females), and the propensity of the resident population to access child care services.

TABLE 5.1 outlines the daily demand for child care places within the Catchment Area, which also includes the Pimpama Village estate.

TABLE 5.1: Daily Demand for Child Care Places 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Places 503 632 715 798 881 963 1,000 1,035

Additional demand for places may also be generated by those accessing the rail station. It is estimated that between 200 and 250 vehicles per day utilise the park and ride facilities at this station during the week, the majority of whom would pass the subject site in their daily commute. We also note your intent to advertise to passing motorists on the M1.

We have estimated market shares from the entire Catchment Area on the basis of:

• An 11% share of the market based on the number of centres within the area, including the proposed Dandaloo Centre and the approved Kidi Kingdom centre;

• A 13% share of the market based on the number of places at existing and approved centres

• A 15% share assuming a new modern, centre with quality operators and the capacity to appeal to commuters

We have assumed that the approved Kidi Kingdom also opens for a 2019 enrolment and that the proposed Pimpama Village child care centre opens in January 2021 (120 places assumed). Three scenarios have been investigated: Scenario 1: both Dandaloo and Kidi Kingdom open in January 2019, and a potential 120 place centre opens in Pimpama Village January 2021. Scenario 2: all three Dandaloo, Kidi Kingdom and Pimpama Village open in January 2019, although we consider this the least likely scenario. Scenario 3: Pimpama Village does not open. On this basis, the following demand for places and occupancy rate at Dandaloo is projected assuming all 146 places open for January 2019 under Scenario 1:

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TABLE 5.2: Dandaloo Child Care Demand – Scenario 1 only Catchment Demand

Month No. Places from Catchment Area

Occupancy Rate %

January 2019 111 75.8

July 2019 117 79.9

January 2020 123 84.0

July 2020 129 88.1

January 2021 121 82.6

July 2021 126 86.0

January 2022 128 87.5 July 2022 130 89.2

A 100% occupancy rate on this scenario would be attained by November 2025. Assuming the Pimpama Village proposed centre does not open, 100% occupancy would be achieved by August 2022. Additional “rogue” demand is likely from beyond the Catchment Area including demand from commuters. This analysis has assumed a 10% rogue – in other words 10% of children attending the centre will come from residents outside the Catchment Area, children of commuters, those accessing the schools including workers at the school, and passing motorists etc. You have also indicated potential additional demand from outside school hours care. TABLE 5.3: Dandaloo Child Care Demand – Scenario 1 – inclusive of 10% Rogue

Month Demand for Places Occupancy Rate %

January 2019 123 84.2

July 2019 130 88.8 January 2020 136 93.3

July 2020 143 97.9

October 2020 146 100.0

On this basis, under Scenario 1, we anticipate a 146 place centre would open with an 84% occupancy rate, and achieve 100% occupancy by October 2020. A return to 100% occupancy is anticipated by November 2022 following a Pimpama Village assumed January 2021 opening in this scenario. This assumes no other changes to the network during this period.

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6.0 CONCLUSIONS

The subject site is a logical location for a child care facility to service the local community, situated near community facilities and key thoroughfares of the local area.

The Catchment Area is an established and growing younger community, including dual income working families and young children.

There are a range of child care centres that have established or are under construction and planned within the southern, Pimpama growth area, which would offer improved levels of convenience and accessibility for residents of the estates within this area relative to the subject site, with Kidi Kingdom likely to open in a comparable timeframe to the subject site. We recommend monitoring of the proposed Pimpama Village child care centre as the timing, scale and eventuality may have implications for the staging of Dandaloo.

The subject site does offer convenience for residents of the Pimpama community located on a strategic route to and from the rail station and Ormeau State School, which has an expansive enrolment catchment including the Ormeau Hills community.

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