Dan Nussbaum and Greg Mislick Operations Research Department
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Transcript of Dan Nussbaum and Greg Mislick Operations Research Department
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Distributed Learning Masters inCost Estimating and Analysis Australian Cost Analysis Symposium Melbourne, Australia October 2012
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Dan Nussbaum and Greg MislickOperations Research Department
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Agenda
Background Who we are: NPS and AFIT Why is this program important? What we are doing: Overview
Masters Overview Curriculum Overview First Cohort Demographics
Unforeseen Challenges/Lessons Learned
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Background
Joint – AFIT and NPS -- all Distributed Learning Cost Estimating and Analysis Masters Program Masters Program (16 courses) Certificate (4 courses)
Open to all personnel: DoD Civilians, Military, Contractors
Initial Request from NAVSEA in Winter 2010 Specific interest in collaboration between AFIT and NPS Initial development funding received from NAVSEA and NAVAIR,
Summer 2010 Strong Stated Interest/Support: All Services, OSD, DAU
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We have received and incorporated numerous ideas concerning course content
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Initial Request from NAVSEA in Winter 2010 Specific interest in collaboration between AFIT and NPS
Initial development funding received from NAVSEA and NAVAIR, Summer 2010
Strong Stated Interest/Support All Services, OSD, DAU Service Cost Centers
Background
We have received and incorporated numerous ideas concerning course content
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NPS--100 Years of Graduate Military Education
• Accredited: WASC, ABET, AACSB, NASPAA
Operationally Relevant Unique advanced education and research
programs increasing the combat effectiveness of U.S. and Allied armed forces
Accomplishing the Mission Program of Record focused graduate schools,
institutes, and research centers. Education built on operational experience An innovative environment: solutions to current,
near-term and long-term national security needs.
Opportunity to experiment with the latest operational technologies in an academic environment.
•Postgraduate Masters, Engineering and Doctorate Degrees•Programs renewed every two years based on emerging requirements•Clear focus on military systems and applications
U.S. Navy42%
Other U.S.5%
U.S. Marine Corps13%
U.S. Coast Guard<1%
U.S. Air Force
14%
U.S. Army7%
International
19%
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ADM Michael MullenADM Michael MullenChairman, JCSChairman, JCS
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AFIT—92 Years of History 66 years of Graduate Military Education
Accredited: NCA, ABET
Operationally Relevant Advance air, space, and cyberspace power for the
Nation, its partners, and our armed forces by providing defense-focused technical graduate and continuing education, research, and consultation
Accomplishing the Mission The military is technologically focused and
technologically focused education is essential Uniqueness: Military and civilian faculty, defense-
focused research Vital, connected, and relevant to current operations
across the globe Unmatched speed and flexibility to adapt to changing
mission focus
Value: AFIT cost per student 40% less than peer institutions
• Postgraduate Masters and Doctorate degrees• Programs reviewed by stakeholders and external review panel every three years• Clear focus on military systems and applications
AF Officers74%
AF Enlisted2%
AF Civilians74%
Sister Service
6%
International Officers
4%
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AFIT’s History …Spans the Entire Aerospace Age
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1919 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
AFIT(Air University)
Air Corps EngineeringSchool
Air ServiceEngineering School
26 47
AFIT(AFMC)
AFIT(Air University)
78
AFIT(ATC)
Degree Authority
1st EN Degrees
1st PhDs
1st LS Degrees
50 8365635554 08
RIGEX
04
1st Enlisted Students
537 PhD … 16,849 MS … and 920 BS
69
CE School
Movedto Wright Field
Graduate and PCE CoursesIn EnvironmentalEngineering Management
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AFIT’s Graduate School of Engineering and Management
• 6 traditional academic departments• 5 centers of excellence• 13 PhD, 23 MS, and 8 graduate certificate
programs• Research facilities
• 12 aerospace research labs• 33 applied physics labs• 11 radar, electronics, and computer labs• 3 environmental sciences labs• Base infrastructure also available to AFIT
Mathematics& Statistics
Electrical &Computer Eng
EngineeringPhysics
Operational Sciences
Systems & Engineering Mgt
Aeronautical & Astronautical Eng
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Why is this program important?
Cost Estimating is in the DoD spotlight Weapons System Acquisition Reform Act of 2009
Reorganizes OSD PAE, including the Cost Analysis Improvement Group (CAIG), into Director of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation, and specifically provides for two deputy directors:
Deputy Director for Cost Assessment. Deputy Director for Program Evaluation
The Director [D/CAPE] Replaces the Director of PA&E Is Senate confirmable Reports directly to SECDEF, and Has annual Congressional reporting requirements.
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Why is this program important?
Large expansion underway in DoD cost estimating cadre.
Target Population:
Most new hires will be recent college graduatesUntutored in DoD/clueless about cost
estimating.
There are also cadres of GS12-15’s who are already cost estimators, but who lack formal education in the field.
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What we are doing
Two year program 2 classes per quarter 4 quarters per year
Delivery modes Asynchronous (computer based; no face-to-face instructional
time, one class each quarter) Synchronous (one class each quarter)
VTE / VTC / Elluminate / DCO First cohort: Classes meet Wednesdays, 1400-1700 (EST),
same time slot for two years Second cohort: Classes will meet Thursdays, 1400-1700
(EST), same time slot for two years
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Certificate Program Available, as well
A four course sequence leading to a Certificate in Cost Estimating and Analysis.
Students take one class per quarter for four quarters. Next Class commences Summer 2012.
The Four Courses Include: Operations Research Methods for Cost Analysts Cost I: Methods and Tools Cost II: Advanced Concepts in Cost Estimating Cost III: Applied Cost Analysis
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Cohort Schedule
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POA&M FY15Develop Curriculum (Requirements, Courses); Gain Academic Approvals
Cohort I Lead Time/Prep
Cohort I Delivery
Cohort II Lead Time/Prep
Cohort II Delivery
Cohort III Lead Time/Prep
Cohort III Delivery
FY14FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
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DAWIA Linkage
All graduates will receive a Masters in Cost Estimating and Analysis upon completion.
Intent--Masters Program will Fulfill the Educational Requirements for DAWIA Level I, II, and III Certification (BUS-CE). Eight years of experience still needed for completion. Air Force has already signed the approval for
this. Navy has already signed the approval for this. Army has already signed the approval for this. DCMA (11,000; going to 13,000) considering
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Curriculum Overview Foundational courses
Probability and Statistics (2 Courses) Operations Research for Cost Analysts Acquisition of Defense Systems Defense Financial Management and Budgeting (2 Courses)
(one on policy, one on practice) Systems Engineering (2 Courses)
Cost Estimating Cost Estimating I, II, and III Cost Estimating IV -- Risk and Uncertainty Analysis Cost Estimating V -- Case Studies Cost Estimating VI -- Cost Economics
AFIT and NPS each teach half of the courses Capstone Project (final two quarters)
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Capstone Projects
Final two quarters of program Intent is to have groups of 5 or 6 students work on
real programs for cost organizations (OSD CAPE, NCCA, NAVSEA, NAVAIR, etc)
Either work on part of a larger program, or work on a small program: “Bite-sized and focused”
Project Deliverables: Still Formulating, but white paper, and ppt presentation, as a minimum.
Thoughts and ideas welcome!
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Demographics of First Cohort Applicants: 74, Selected: 32, Remaining: 27 Mostly Navy and Air Force represented, plus a few
contractors NAVSEA: 5, NAVAIR: 5, NUWC-Newport: 4, NSWCDD
Dahlgren: 3, Pentagon: NCCA, OSD (CAPE), AFCAA: 4, AF Space and Missile Center, Los Angeles: 5, NGIA, AFMC: 2 (DC and Hanscom, MA), Contractors: 4
All applicants are presently working in the cost estimation field at their respective commands
Rank/Grade Breakdown: GS 7 – GS 15 1 Active Duty Navy 0-6, 1 Active Duty Air Force O-2 4 contractors (Boeing, Cask Technologies, EM Solutions, Wyle
Aerospace)
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Demographics of Second Cohort
Cohort commenced week of 26 March 2012 Cohort has 30 students Navy, Air Force, Army, contractor, and JHU/APL involvement this
cohort. AFCAA: 5 DASA: 6 NAVAIR: 4 NAVSEA: 3 NSWCDD: 5 JHU/APL: 3 Contractors: 2 Misc: 2
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Summary
All distance-learning Master’s Degree in Cost Estimating and Analysis Two year program
Cohort I began March 2011 with 32 students Cohort II began 26 March 2012, with 30 students
4 course Cost Certificate program also developed Leverages strengths of AFIT and NPS Sponsor and all development funding: Naval Sea Systems Command Developed to fulfill DAWIA Certification Levels 1,2, and 3, without attending DAU POCs
AFIT: Maj Dan Ritschel, Dept of Systems and Engineering Management NPS Dr. Dan Nussbaum and LtCol (Ret.) Greg Mislick, Operations Research Department
Very strong support at very senior OSD and Service levels
Tri-Fold and website availablehttp://www.nps.edu/MCEA.asp
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BACK UP SLIDES
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Cost Estimation I: Subject Areas
Introduction to Cost Estimating Cost Processes Data Collection and Sources
(CSDR/CPR/SAR/SRDR, …….) Data Bases Used (VAMOSC, DCARC,
DAMIR,.…….) Introduction to EVMS Data Normalization Statistics for Cost Estimators Methodologies (Analogy, Parametric, …….)
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Cost Estimation I: Subject Areas (cont)
Regression Analysis Learning Curves (Unit Theory, Cum Average
Theory, Production Breaks, Step Down Functions, Production Rates)
Cost Factors Wrap Rates Expert Opinion Introduction to Software Cost Estimation Introduction to Risk and Uncertainty Analysis
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Cost Estimation II: Subject Areas
Cost Estimate Documentation WBS, Data Requirements Labor and Overhead Rates Direct Materials and other Support Costs Operating and Support Costs
PBL, CLS, Organic Total Ownership Cost Cost per Flying Hour
Earned Value Management Systems Estimates at Completion Cost and Schedule Overruns
Two Major Cost Estimating Projects
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Cost Estimation III: Subject Areas
Source Selections Cost Evaluation and Modeling
Economic Analysis Capital Budgeting Discounted Cash Flows NPV, IRR Payback
Business Case Analyses, Analysis of Alternatives Commercial Derivative Systems Aging Aircraft Cost Issues Software Cost Estimating (3 Weeks) Two Major Cost Estimating Projects
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Cost Estimation IV: Risk and Uncertainty Analysis
Introduction to Cost and Schedule Risk and Uncertainty Review of Probability for Cost Analysts Monte Carlo Simulation with @Risk Understanding the Nature of CER and Cost Driver
Uncertainty The Impact of Correlation Schedule Risk Analysis Phasing the Cost Estimate Putting It All Together: Project Preparation: Examining
the technical and programmatic description of an acquisition program, then develop appropriate WBS’s for cost estimating
The Project
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Cost Estimation V: Case Studies
Case Study Process Theory Multi-value Attribute & Utility Theory Logistics Cost Case Studies
PBL vice Organic modeling
C-17 BCA In-depth Analysis and Critique
Portfolio Analysis Best Practices Enterprise Risk
Visual Basic For Cost Modeling (three weeks) Two Major Cost Estimating Case Study Projects
Littoral Combat Ship
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Cost Estimation VI: Subject Areas
Advanced EVMS Issues Nunn McCurdy Industrial Base Analysis Cost of Delay Cost and Schedule Risk
Why have the cost of Ships Risen? Why have the costs of Aircraft Risen?
Cost Economics Competition, Dual Awards, Second Sourcing, Cost of Data Rights
Cost Estimating Ethics Cost Profession Cost and the “Annual Acquisition Improvement Study”
Two Major Cost Estimating Projects
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