Dan Kašpar, Klára Hulíková Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science, Department of...
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Transcript of Dan Kašpar, Klára Hulíková Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science, Department of...
Dan Kašpar, Klára Hulíková
Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science, Department of Demography and Geodemography ([email protected], [email protected])
Why to study? Convergence of mortality
assumed by theories of demographic transition and epidemiological transition
Development of mortality in 20th century
Content 1. Main convergence/divergence
tendencies of mortality in Europe
Content 1. Main convergence/divergence
tendencies of mortality in Europe Convergence tendencies
of mortality of selected country to other countries2. Life expectancy at the age of 65
Content 1. Main convergence/divergence
tendencies of mortality in Europe Convergence tendencies
of mortality of selected country to other countries2. Life expectancy at the age of 653. Main groups of causes of death
1. Main convergence/divergence tendencies of mortality in Europe 1a) Common statistics 1b) Use of population weights
Data Human Mortality
Database 28 countries
Including East and West Germany
1959–2009 Life expectancy
at birth, males
Division into regions Southern Europe Western Europe Northern Europe Central Europe Eastern Europe
Life expectancy at birth, selected European countries, males, 1959–2009
9
1a) Common statistics
Selected basic statistics of life expectancy at birth in selected 28 European countries, males
Interquartile rangeRange
Southern, Western, Northern Europe
Central, Eastern Europe
2b) Use of population weights
Cumulative distribution of European population by life expectancy at birth, males
1959 – interquartile range 4,1 years2009 – interquartile range 13,7 years
Percent of European population at each level of life expectancy at birth, by type of country, 1959, males
93 % of population
Percent of European population at each level of life expectancy at birth, by type of country, 1969, males
Percent of European population at each level of life expectancy at birth, by type of country, 1979, males
Percent of European population at each level of life expectancy at birth, by type of country, 1989, males
Percent of European population at each level of life expectancy at birth, by type of country, 1999, males
Percent of European population at each level of life expectancy at birth, by type of country, 2009, males
2. Convergence tendencies of mortality of selected country to other countries:
Life expectancy at the age of 65 Possible future convergence
of one population to other populations with lower mortality
”Since 1991 life expectancy gains in the Czech Republic and Poland have outpaced those in Japan, with an increase of 3.3 years compared to Japan's 2.0 years. At that pace differential, it would take time for them to catch up Japan (42 years for the Czech Republic and even 48 years for Poland).”(Vallin, Meslé, 2004, pp. 24)
Steps 1. Reference population
Czech Republic 2. Indicator(s) of mortality
Life expectancy at the age of 65 (e65)
3. Starting point, period, regression function2009; 1991–2009; simple linear function
4. Time to equalization of functions
Time to equalization
Time to equalization
Czech Republic
DIVERGENCE (faster speed of development in
period 1991–2009 in state A)
Time to equalization
Czech Republic
CONVERGENCE (slower speed of development in
period 1991–2009 in state A)
Data Human Mortality
Database Life expectancy
at the age of 65 27 countries 1991–2009
Differences in e65 between the Czech Republic and other European countries in 2009 for males (left) and females (right)
Use only countries with higher e65 in 2009
Hypothetical number of years from the year 2009 necessary for equalization of the values of e65 in the Czech Republic and other European countries
Hypothetical number of years from the year 2009 necessary for equalization of the values of e65 in the Czech Republic and other European countries
3. Convergence tendencies of mortality of selected country to other countries (main groups of causes of death)
Data WHO Mortality Database 25 European countries ICD-10 only Studied period: 1994–2012 (data were
not fully available for all the countries) Groups of causes of deathCardiovascular diseasesNeoplasmsExternal causes
Methods Age-specific mortality rates (where data were
available) and standardized mortality rates (according to groups of causes of death and sex) Standard population: European Standard Population
2013 Modelling of the recent trend: logistic function Extrapolation of the logistic function Time to equalization of values of the logistic
function for a reference country (Czech Republic) and all the other countries – according to groups of causes and sex
Convergence with Poland for males, not for females
Convergence with Hungary for females, not for males
No countries where there are convergence tendencies with the Czech Republic in near future
Divergent tendencies with all other countries (or equal tempo of change) with them
Only states corresponding with the applied scale are displayed
Convergence with Sweden, Norway, Portugal and Spain for both sexes
Convergence with Bulgaria and Denmark for males, not for females
Convergence with Belgium and France for females, not for males
Relatively homogeneous group of countries according to mortality caused by neoplasms, for both sexes. However, this countries are different from other European countries
Only states corresponding with the applied scale are displayed
Relatively homogeneous group of countries according to mortality caused by external causes, for both sexes
Latvia – exceptionally high value among females, more time needed for homogeneity with other countries
Italy, Spain – exceptionally low value among males, more time needed for homogeneity with other countries
Only states corresponding with the applied scale are displayed
Summary Main tendencies of mortality
in Europe since the second half of the 20th century
Way of quantification and visualization of convergence and divergence tendencies of mortality of one population to other populations
Conclusion There exist many reasons why
and many possibilities how to study convergence and divergence tendencies of mortality
The study was supported by the Charles University in Prague, project GA UK No 163015.