Dan Barclay November 2005
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Dan Barclay
Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004
Dan Barclay
November 2005
Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan
Realignment, 1952-2004
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Dan Barclay
Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004
• So there’s this paper that models political realignment on a two-dimensional issues axis.
• Problem is, it doesn’t have any data to back it up.
• I’ll be bringing in data to quantify the model.
Abstract
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Dan Barclay
Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004
An Optical Depiction
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Dan Barclay
Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004
Nifty Graph
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Dan Barclay
Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004
Nifty Graph
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Dan Barclay
Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004
Literature Review
• Periodicity– Adams (1918): 12-year cycles from 1776-1812– Schlesinger, Sr. (1949): Projected cycles from
1947-1962, 1962-1978, 1978-1993• “Critical elections”
– Certain elections such as 1896 and 1932 are “flash points” that see abrupt changes in ideologies
– Discontinuous model
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Dan Barclay
Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004
Literature Review II: First Blood
• Attempted link to congressional politics– Brady (1982): Congressional policy changes can
be explained through realignment theory.– “Our field isn’t credible, so let’s try to support it
with one that is!”– Epic failure
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Dan Barclay
Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004
Literature Review III: Reign of Chaos
• The public opinion challenge– Stimson (1998): When you actually look at the
data, realignment theory doesn’t work at all. You people are dumb.
– Mayhew (2002): Yeah, what he said.– Huge pile-on; realignment lies in tatters
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Dan Barclay
Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004
Literature Review IV: A New Hope
• Maybe realignment theory will work if we use models that are continuous, not discontinuous.– Smith (2002): If we assume the two parties have
gradually traded places in the past few decades, public opinion data doesn’t tear us a new one.
– Miller and Schofield (2003): The paper I’m plagiarizing building upon
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Dan Barclay
Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004
Miller and Schofield (2003)• Theory
– Regressions show that the two parties have gradually changed places, which can’t be accounted for by white noise and must therefore be due to realignment factors
• Mechanism– Each party continually tries to outflank the other to
appeal to groups of swing voters• Two dimensions, economic and social
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Dan Barclay
Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004
That Nifty Graph Again
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Dan Barclay
Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004
1896
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Dan Barclay
Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004
1932-60
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Dan Barclay
Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004
1960-64
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Dan Barclay
Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004
1964-68
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Dan Barclay
Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004
2005
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Dan Barclay
Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004
My Project
• Quantify Schofield and Miller– Roll call data = relative density of each quadrant– Elections data = area occupied by each party– Public opinion data = frontier between the parties– Party platform data = point position of each party
• I code national platforms on a 1 / 0 / -1 basis
• Regress the results• Make projections
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Dan Barclay
Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004
Validity Problems
• None.
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Dan Barclay
Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004
Methodology
• Roll call: Use the data I already have• Elections: Acquire from NES• Public opinion: Acquire from NES• Party platforms: Code the data I already have• Regression: Use STATA
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Dan Barclay
Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004
• Sampling error, from public opinion data
• Personal bias, from coding party platforms
• 1952-2004 time period dictated by data availability
Validity Problems
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Dan Barclay
Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004
Methodology
• Roll call: Use the data I already have• Elections: Acquire from NES• Public opinion: Acquire from NES• Party platforms: Code the data I already have• Regression: Use STATA
– Arbitrary designation of social issues as the independent variable and economic issues as the dependent variable