Dairy Report 2018...Outlook 2030: As dairy business is changing very rapidly, IFCN has developed...

1© IFCN Dairy Report 2018

Dairy Report 2018For a betterunderstanding of the dairy world

IFCNThe Dairy Research Network

Exatr ct


Status of the IFCN Research Network in 2018 The dairy sector analysis covered over 200 countries. In the farm com-parison,177 typical dairy farms from 65 dairy regions and 53 countries were analysed. In 2018 the research network grew substantially via new countries in farm and dairy sector analysis.

IFCN Dairy Report 2018Chapter 1: Cost comparison summarises results on costs, returns, profitability and productivity of dairy farms worldwide. Real time cost estimates for 2018 have also been included for some countries. A special focus lies this year on sustainability and resilience of dairy farms.

Chapter 2: Global monitoring provides a broad overview on speci-fic dairy issues such as milk prices, feed prices and milk:feed price ratio and monthly milk price transmission.

Chapter 3: Dairy sector and chain profiles prepared for 115 countries, representing 98% of world milk production with comparable information on

• Majormilkprocessorspercountry• Milksupplyanddemanddevelopments• Milkprocessingprofileperdairyproduct• Monthlyfarmgateandworldmilkprice• Consumerpricesandmarginsinthechain

Moreover,thekeyresultsaresummarisedatthebeginningofthe chapter via world maps.

Chapter 4: IFCN Methods: This chapter is dedicated to explain the methodsusedfortheIFCNAnalyses.Moreoverithighlightsthe followingtopics:a)statusofthemodelTIPI-CAL,b)monthlydemanddata, c) monthly supply forecast model, and d) changes in milk standardisation for the farm and sector data.

Acknowledgement WewouldliketothankallIFCNResearchPartners,SupporterPartners,InstitutionalPartnersandthecolleaguesworkingintheIFCNDairyResearchCentreduringthelastyear.Itwasapleasuretoworkwithyouand strengthen the network in 2018. We are looking forward to our activities in 2019.

Anders Fagerberg Torsten Hemme ChairmanoftheIFCNBoard ManagingDirector

Introduction

The IFCN Mission and VisionIFCN Mission: We create a better understanding of the dairy world by providing comparable data, knowledge and inspiration.

IFCN Content work 2018Sustainability: IFCNhasdevelopedatooltomeasuresustainabilityindicators for different farm types.

Farm economics: Specialattentionwasgiventothefollowingareas:short descriptions for all farms in the analysis, implementation of the new milk standardisation method, calculation of different variables measuring the buffer capacity and thus the resilience of dairy farms.

The dairy sector work: To understand the dairy world better, it is importanttoobservetheglobaldairytrade.Bymonitoringthemonthlytradeof25HS6-digitdairycommoditiesandcreatingtradeprofilesfordifferentcountries,IFCNisabletodrawconclusionsonmilksurplusanddeficit worldwide.

Outlook 2030:Asdairybusinessischangingveryrapidly,IFCNhasdeveloped scenarios for the long-term outlook of the dairy world for over 200 countries until 2030.

Highlights – IFCN events in 2018

IFCN Dairy Conference 2018The focus of this conference was ‘Farm technology: Past, present andfuture’.TeagaschostedthiseventinCork,Ireland,inJune.

IFCN Supporter Conference 2018ThiseventwasheldinSeptemberinParma,Italy.ThetopicexploredhowBigDatawillchangedairyfarmingandthesupplychaininthefuture.Cargillwastheeventhostingpartner.

IFCN Dairy Economic Workshop 2018The workshop took place for the 4th time to transmit profound knowledge of the backgrounds of the dairy market to novices in the field of dairy economics.

IFCN Regional Workshop 2018The 7th of its series workshop will be organised in Pune, India from 28th to 29thNovember.FocussingonmilkqualityandexportspotentialofIndia.TheeventwillbesponsoredbyScheriber-Dynamics,Kemin,Prabhat,NeogenandPrometheanpower.

Dear Friends,ThisIFCNDairyReport2018compilesinamostcomprehensiveoverview,

thestatusofthedairyworldandgivesinsightsintotheIFCNResearch.


Hugo Quattrochi | Unión Productores de Leche Cuenca Mar y Sierras, Tandil, Argentina

Anna Yeritsyan, Vardan Urutyan | ICARE, Yerevan, Armenia

Jon Hauser | Xcheque Pty Ltd, Glen Alvie, Victoria, Australia

Josef Hambrusch, Leopold Kirner | Federal Institute of Agricultural Economics, Vienna, Austria

Mohammad Uddin | Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh

Anatoli Takun, Sviatlana Takun | The Institute of System Research in Agroindustrial Complex of NAS, Minsk, Belarus

Joeri Deuninck | Department of Agricul-ture and Fisheries, Knowledge Quality and Fisheries Division, Brussel, Belgium

Lorildo A. Stock | Embrapa, Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Participating dairy economicsts / co-editors of the IFCN Dairy Report

Djellali Abderrazak | Horizons Agro-alimentaires, Gouraya, Algeria

Dairy Expert

Festus Kongyu Ali | University of Dschang, Bafoussam, Cameroon

Sergio de Zen, Natália Grigol | CEPEA, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Steve Couture | Dairy Farmers of Canada, Ottawa, Canada

Mario E. Olivares |Cooprinsem, Osorno, Chile

Sam Shi | Dairy Consultant, Beijing, China

Dairy Consultant

Dou Ming, Hal Chin | Beijing Orient Dairy Consultants Ltd, Beijing, China

Liu Changquan | Sino-Dutch Dairy Development Center, Beijing, China

Enrique Ortega, René A. Pérez R. | Consejo Nacional de la Calidad de la Leche y Prevención de la Mastitis, Bogotá, Colombia

Iveta Bošková | ÚZEI, Prague, Czech Republic

Jannik Toft Andersen | SEGES, Aarhus, Denmark

Adel Khattab, Wael Nagy | Tanta University, Tanta, Egypt

Olli Niskanen | Natural Resources Insti-tute Finland (LUKE), Helsinki, Finland

Benoît Rubin | Institut de l’Elevage, Derval, France

Hauke Tergast | Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Braunschweig, Germany

Dániel Mándi-Nagy | Research Institute of Agricultural Economics (AKI), Budapest, Hungary

Pankaj Navani | Binsar Farms Pvt. Ltd. Janti Khurd, Haryana, India

BINSAR FARMSC R E A M E R Y

Dr. Smita Sirohi, Gunjan Bhandari | National Dairy Research Institute, Karnal, India

G. Chokkalingam | National Dairy De-velopment Board, Anand, Gujarat, India

Ali Sadeghi-Sefidmazgi | Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran

Farhad Mirzaei | Iranian Association for Animal Production Management, Karaj, Iran

Fiona Thorne | Teagasc, Dublin, Ireland

Liron Tamir | Israel Dairy Board, Rishon-Le'Zion, Israel

Alberto Menghi | Centro Ricerche Produzioni Animali, Reggio Emilia, Italy

Hironobu Takeshita | J-milk; Japan Milk Academic Alliance; Nagoya University, Tokyo, Japan

Francis Karin | Tegemeo Institute, Egerton University, Rongia, Nakuru, Kenya

Renars Sturmanis | Latvian Rural Advisory and Training Centre, Ozolnieki, Latvia

Simone Adam | Ministère de l’Agriculture, Service d’Economie Rurale, Luxembourg, Luxembourg

Mc Loyd Banda | Department of Agriculture Research Services, Bunda College, Lilongwe, Malawi

José Luis Dávalos Flores | National Autonomous University of Mexico, Tequisquiapan, Mexico

Rigoberto Becerra | Establo Gibraltar,Gomez Palacio, Durango, Mexico

Nicola Shadbolt | Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand

Olusegun Oloruntobi | MoreMeat-MoreMilk Initiative for Development, Adamasingba, Ibadan, Nigeria

Ola Flaten, Bjørn Gunnar Hansen | NIBIO, Ås, Norway

Abid Aman Burki | Lahore University of Management Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan


Shakirullah Akhtar | Dairy Expert, Afghanistan

Ilir Kapaj | Agricultural University, Tirana, Albania

Helen Quinn | Dairy Australia, Victoria, Southbank, Australia

Jafar Jafarov | Azerbaijan State Agriculture University, Ganja, Azerbaijan

Erwin Wauters | Institute for Agricultural and Fisheries Research, Merelbeke, Belgium

Tashi Samdup, N. B. Tamang | Department of Livestock, Ministry of Agriculture & Forests, Thimphu, Bhutan

Felix Menzel | Dairy Expert, Mezza Sucre, Bolivia

Konstantin Stankov | Trakia University, Stara Zagora, Bulgaria

Henri Bayemi | Institute of Agricultural Research for Development (IRAD), Yaoundé, Cameroon

Francisco José Arias Cordero | Dos Pinos, Alajuela, Costa Rica

Rodrigo Gallegos | Centro de la Industria Láctea, Quito, Ecuador

Katri Kall | Estonian University of Life Sciences, Tartu, Estonia

Mélanie Richard - Lenfant | Institut de L‘Elevage, Paris, France

Giorgi Khatiashvili | Caucasus Genetics ,Tbilisi, Georgia

Łukasz Wyrzykowski | IFCN Dairy Research Center, Kiel, Germany

Irene Tzouramani | Agriculture Economics Research Institute (AGRERI), Hellenic Agriculture Organization – DEMETER, Athens, Greece

Bjarni Ragnar Brynjólfsson | Icelandic Dairies Association, Reykjavík, Iceland

Marjuki | Brawijaya University, Malang, Indonesia

Othman Alqaisi | Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman, Jordan

Moldir Myrzabekova | Kazakh National Agrarian University, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Azat Mukaliev | Kyrgyz State Agricultural University, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

Agnese Krievina, Andris Miglavs | Institute of Agricultural Resources and Economics (AREI), Riga, Latvia

Deiva Mikelionyte | Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics, Vilnius, Lithuania

Blagica Sekovska | Veterinary Faculty, Institute for Food, Skopje, Macedonia

Anatolie Ignat, Eugenia Lucasenco | National Istitute for Economic Research, Chisinau, Moldova

Participating dairy economicsts / co-editors of the IFCN Dairy Report

Paidamoyo Patience Chadoka | Zimbabwe Association of Dairy Farmers, Harare, Zimbabwe

Researchers participating only in the country profile analysis or in specific country information:

Carlos A. Gomez | Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina, Lima, Peru

Ewa Kołoszycz | West Pomeranian University of Technology, Szczecin, Poland

Vladimir Surovtsev, Mikhail Ponomarev, Julia Nikulina | Northwest Research Institute of Economics and Organization of Agricul-ture, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation

Rade Popovic | University of Novi Sad, Subotica, Serbia

Koos Coetzee | Milk Producers‘ Organisation, Pretoria, South Africa

National Network Team (J. Llorente, C. García, A. García, P. García) | TRAGSATEC & Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentación, Madrid, Spain

Christian Gazzarin | Agroscope, Tänikon, Switzerland

Michel de Haan | WUR, Wageningen Livestock Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands

Dhiaeddine M‘Hamed | Dairy Expert, Saliman, Tunisia

Dairy Consultant

Muhittin Özder, Selçuk Akkaya | Turkish Milk Council, Ankara, Turkey

Steven Aikiriza | SNV, Kampala, Uganda

Olga Kozak | National Scientific Centre, Institute of Agrarian Economics, Kyiv, Ukraine

Mark Topliff | Agriculture & Horticulture Development Board, Kenilworth, Warwickshire, United Kingdom

Jorge Artagaveytia, Gabriel Bagnato | Instituto Nacional de la Leche, Montevideo, Uruguay

Hernan Tejeda | University of Idaho, Idaho, USA

Christopher Wolf | Michigan State University, Michigan, USA

Robert Hagevoort | New Mexico State University, New Mexico, USA

Bill Zweigbaum | Farm Credit East, Greenwich, New York , USA

Mark Stephenson | University of Wisconsin, Wisconsin, USA

Joleen Hadrich | University of Minnesota, Minnesota, USA

Mohamed Taher Sraïri | Institut Agronomique et Vétérinaire Hassan II, Rabat, Morocco

Rein van der Hoek | International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Nicaragua

Waseem Shaukat | Solve Agri Pak (Private) Limited, Lahore, Pakistan

Naomi K. Torreta, Maria Carmen A. Briones | National Dairy Authority, Quezon City, Philippines

António Moitinho Rodrigues | School of Agriculture – Polytechic Institute of Castelo Branco, Portugal

Michael Mishchenko | Russian Dairy Research Center, Moscow, Russian Federation

John Musemakweli | Rwanda National Dairy Platform, Kigali, Rwanda

Christian Corniaux | CIRAD / PPZS, Dakar Etoile, Senegal

Ben Moljk | Agricultural Institute of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Slovenia

Seung Yong Park | Yonam College, Cheonon, South Korea

Hemali Kothalawala | Department of Animal Production and Health, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka

Nazar Omer Hassan Salih | Al - Neelain University, Khartoum, Sudan

Uliana Rusetska | Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden

Juliane Liu | Forefront Enterprise Co. Ltd., Taipei, Taiwan

Jonas Kizima | Livestock Research Institute (TALIRI), Tanga, Tanzania

Adul Vangtal | Thai Holstein Friesian Association (T.H.A.), Rajburi, Thailand

Yana Muzychenko | Association of Milk Producers, Umam, Ukraine

Muzaffar Yunusov | IFCN Dairy Research Center, Kiel, Germany, Uzbekistan

Vu Ngoc Quynh | Vietnam Dairy Association, Hanoi, Vietnam

Abdulkarim Abdulmageed Amad | Thamar University, Dhamar, Yemen

Kapoche Mwale | Dairy Association of Zambia, Zambia

Rob Jansen-van Vuuren, Addmore Waniwa | Livestock Consultant, Department of Livestock & Veterinary Services, Zimbabwe


Preface IFCN Dairy Report – Developments 2000 – 2018 6 Regional maps and the typical farms 7 About IFCN 8 IFCN Dairy Research Center and IFCN Board 9 19th IFCN Dairy Conference 2018 10 Results from the IFCN Dairy Conference 2018 11 15th IFCN Supporter Conference 2017 12 Results from the IFCN Supporter Conference 2017 13 6th IFCN Regional Workshop 2017 14 Results from the IFCN Regional Workshop 2017 15 4th IFCN Dairy Economic Workshop 2018 16 1st IFCN Dairy Hub Argentina 17 List of events with IFCN participation 18 IFCN Supporter Partnership and IFCN Data Products 19

1 Comparison of the typical farms 20171.1 Summary – Farm comparison 2017 211.2 Milk supply curves 2017 221.3 Cost of milk production on average sized and larger

farms 2017 231.4 Farm level time series analysis 2000 – 2018

– Cost of milk production only 241.5 Description of the dairy farms analysed 261.6 Summary on economic results of the typical farms 281.7 Cost of milk production only 301.8 Total costs and returns of the dairy enterprise 311.9 Milk price, non-milk returns

and decoupled payments 321.10 Dairy enterprise: Profits, return to labour and

asset structure 331.11 Description of direct subsidies and policies 341.12 Summary on cost components of the dairy enterprise 361.13 Cost components of the dairy enterprise 38 1.14 Cost component: Feed 391.15 Cost component: Labour 401.16 Cost component: Land 411.17 Cost component: Animal health and herd replacement 421.18 Overview of all typical farms analysis – costs and returns 431.19 New typical farms results – IFCN Farm Comparison

Research Network 451.20 Sustainability and resilience of typical farms 461.21 Sustainability of selected farms 481.22 Resilience of selected farms 49

Country Pages – Dairy sector and chain profiles

2 Global monitoring dairy economic indicators 2.1 Summary: Monitoring dairy economic indicators 532.2 Global trends in oil, milk and feed prices 1981 – 2018 552.3 National farm gate milk prices in 2017 in USD 562.4 Monitoring feed prices and milk: feed price ratio 1996 – 2017 572.5 Monitoring milk prices 1996 – 2017 582.6 Monthly milk prices transmission and farm economics 602.7 IFCN Long-term Dairy Outlook 2018 62

3 Dairy sector and chain profile3.1 Summary – Status and trends in the dairy sector 663.2 Status and development of milk production 683.3 Importance of dairy processing 703.4 Milk consumption 723.5 The dairy chain 743.6 World dairy trade 763.7 Status of milk surplus, deficit and self-sufficiency 78

3.10 EU-28 813.11 Afghanistan 823.12 Albania 833.13 Algeria 843.14 Argentina 853.15 Armenia 863.16 Australia 873.17 Austria 883.18 Azerbaijan 893.19 Bangladesh 903.20 Belarus 913.21 Belgium 923.22 Bhutan 933.23 Bolivia 943.24 Bosnia-Herzegovina 953.25 Brazil 963.26 Bulgaria 973.27 Cameroon 983.28 Canada 993.29 Chile 1003.30 China 1013.31 Colombia 1023.32 Costa Rica 1033.33 Croatia 104

3.34 Cuba 1053.35 Cyprus 1063.36 Czech Republic 1073.37 Denmark 1083.38 Ecuador 1093.39 Egypt 1103.40 Estonia 1113.41 Ethiopia 1123.42 Finland 1133.43 France 1143.44 The Gambia 1153.45 Georgia 1163.46 Germany 1173.47 Greece 1183.48 Hungary 1193.49 Iceland 1203.50 India 1213.51 Indonesia 1223.52 Iran 1233.53 Ireland 1243.54 Israel 1253.55 Italy 1263.56 Jamaica 1273.57 Japan 128

Myanmar

Dairy Report 2018 – Table of Contents


4 Methods applied in IFCN Analyses4.1 The TIPICAL model and its capabilities 198 4.2 IFCN Monthly Demand Data 1994.3 IFCN Monthly Supply Forecast Model 2004.4 Standardisation of milk 2014.5 Standardisation used for country level data 2034.6 Typical farm approach 2044.7 Details on farm economic analysis 205

Annex A.1 IFCN Publications 211A.2 Glossary 212A.3 Typical farm approach and data quality assessment 214A.4 Elevator stories of typical farms 215A.5 Description of the typical dairy farms analysed 217A.6 Abbreviations 222A.7 Exchange rates 1996 – 2017 223A.8 Who is who 224

3.58 Jordan 1293.59 Kazakhstan 1303.60 Kenya 1313.61 Korea, Republic of 1323.62 Kyrgyzstan 1333.63 Latvia 1343.64 Lebanon 1353.65 Lithuania 1363.66 Luxembourg 1373.67 Macedonia 1383.68 Madagascar 1393.69 Malawi 1403.70 Malaysia 1413.71 Malta 1423.72 Mexico 1433.73 Moldova 1443.74 Mongolia 1453.75 Morocco 1463.76 Mozambique 1473.77 Myanmar 1483.78 Namibia 1493.79 Nepal 1503.80 The Netherlands 1513.81 New Zealand 1523.82 Nicaragua 1533.83 Nigeria 1543.84 Norway 1553.85 Oman 1563.86 Pakistan 1573.87 Panama 1583.88 Paraguay 1593.89 Peru 1603.90 Philippines 1613.91 Poland 1623.92 Portugal 1633.93 Romania 1643.94 Russian Federation 1653.95 Rwanda 1663.96 Saudi Arabia 1673.97 Senegal 1683.98 Serbia 1693.99 Slovakia 1703.100 Slovenia 1713.101 South Africa 172

3.102 Spain 1733.103 Sri Lanka 1743.104 Sudan 1753.105 Sweden 1763.106 Switzerland 1773.107 Taiwan 1783.108 Tajikistan 1793.109 Tanzania 1803.110 Thailand 1813.111 Tunisia 1823.112 Turkey 1833.113 Turkmenistan 1843.114 Uganda 1853.115 Ukraine 1863.116 United Kingdom 1873.117 Uruguay 1883.118 USA 1893.119 Uzbekistan 1903.120 Venezuela 1913.121 Vietnam 1923.122 Yemen 1933.123 Zambia 1943.124 Zimbabwe 195

Myanmar

Dairy Report 2018 – Table of Contents

Myanmar


Which countries are participating in the IFCN Dairy Report activities in 2018?

IFCN Dairy Report – Developments 2000 – 2018

53 countries analysed in the Farm Comparison

62+ countries participated in the Country Pages

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Number of countries included in farm comparison

Number of countries included in country profile analysis

Number of farm types analysed

Italy


Regional maps and the typical farms

Europe and Middle East

Germany30 S, 80 S, 109 S, 147 N,

270 N, 700 E, 1200 E

Denmark190, 350

Norway23, 41

Finland 28, 78, 138

Russia230W, 850 NW,

850 NW++, 850NW--Belarus

1015, 1470

Ukraine 300, 1000

Poland 16 E, 25, 52 N, 65 S, 75, 221 N

NL99, 251

UK 160 NW, 259 SW

Ireland 74, 137

Belgium40N, 95N

Luxembourg69, 176

Spain70 NW, 80 CN, 95 S, 150 NW

France38 MC,

66 W, 100 C

Switzerland15 bio, 22, 60

Italy154, 229

Austria17-bio, 30-bio,

68

Czech Republic

85, 270, 783

Serbia2, 10, 84

Turkey15, 100 Iran

90, 120, 276, 458, 189

IS, 800 IS, 1000 IS, 5000 IS

Jordan76, 412

Israel110, 460

Armenia4,50

Hungary160, 822

Colombia6, 100 DP, 105

Peru7, 17

Argentina180, 400,280, 600

Chile64

112433

426++ Uruguay129367

Brazil34 S, 56 S

111 S, 350 S180 SE, 320 SE

57 S

North America

Canada85, 147

California (CA)1100

Wisconsin(WI)80, 500

Mexico30 JA44 JA

1000 TO2000 TO

New York (NY) 65, 450, 2350

South America

South East Asia and Oceania

Uttar Pradesh2, 4

India

Indonesia3MG, 3MG++,

10MG, 10MG++Australia

260379

New Zealand397, 1022

Japan40, 77

China North289 N, 2250 N,

5800 N

Beijing200 BE, 870 BE

Haryana2, 20, 60 CF,

300 CF

Legend: Numbers indicate the number of cows in the typical farms. ++ = future farm, B = Buffalo, BE = Beijing, bio = Organic, C = Central, CF = Commercial Farm, CN = Central North, DP = Dual Purpose, E = East, JA = Jalisco, MC = Massif Central, MG=Malang, N = North, NW = North West, S = South, SE = South East, SW = South West, TO = Torréon, W = West

Africa

Algeria6, 18

Tunisia2, 4, 5, 12, 290

Egypt5 B, 5, 10

Uganda1, 3, 13

Malawi1, 6

Zimbabwe75, 400

South Africa230, 650, 800

Kenya2, 8

Bangladesh2, 14

Gujarat2, 8

Assam2, 6

Karnataka2, 6 Odisha

2, 5

Latvia 28, 209

Nigeria4, 200

Idaho (ID) 1200, 2600

Minnesota (MN) 206

New Mexico (NM)2343

Cameroon25, 50

Michigan (MI)1200

Pakistan10, 25, 100

Inner Mongolia80


IFCN VisionWe are the leading, global knowledge organisation in milk production, milk prices and related dairy economic topics.

IFCN MissionWe create a better understanding of the dairy world by providing comparable data, knowledge and inspiration.

Dairy data: We provide globally comparable dairy economic data and forecasts.

Knowledge: We create knowledge out of our data, models and analysis. Our core competence is in the field of milk production, milk prices and related economic topics.

Inspiration: We inspire people in the dairy world to build a better future. We inspire passionate people to develop a successful career in the dairy world.

How does IFCN operate?

IFCN creates a better understanding of the global dairy world. The IFCN – International Farm Comparison Network – started in 2000 with basic analytics. Step by step the knowledge bases are being deepened and widened every year.

Knowledge is created via a network of dairy researchers from over 90 countries. The data and knowledge are managed and analysed by the IFCN Dairy Research Centre staff.

The IFCN Economic Models and standards ensure comparability between countries and provide a global picture.

More than 100 dairy related companies and organisations support the IFCN and use the knowledge to solve challenges in the dairy world better.

IFCN has innovative ways to share this knowledge with its partners and with the dairy world as a whole. The IFCN Events are a key ele-ment in developing the network spirit.

IFCN Values: Trust – Independence – TruthTrust among the IFCN Partners is vital for open sharing, cooperation and a network that really works. The IFCN is independent from third parties and is committed to truth, science and reliability of results. Truth means that IFCN shows the dairy world as it is and as accu-rately as measurements allow. IFCN describes realities and reports without having any hidden agendas.

What does IFCN offer stakeholders in the dairy chain

1. Farmers: IFCN gives you a voice to reach other players in the dairy world. Up to date global milk and feed price trends and helpful IFCN Publications are presented on the IFCN Website. Farm comparison work allows you to judge the competitive po-sition of milk production in your region.

2. Researchers and advisors: IFCN makes you part of the leading global dairy network. IFCN helps to serve your dairy stakehol-ders better and to develop your professional career in the dairy world while strengthening your dairy economics profile in your country.

3. Companies: IFCN provides dairy related companies such as milk processors and farm input companies, a comprehensive and continuously updated picture of the dairy world. We help you develop your business.

4. Global and national organisations involved in policy-ma-king for agriculture, environment and food supply: IFCN provides holistic dairy knowledge to be used for your policy de-cisions and conferences.

5. Consumers: IFCN illustrates milk-production, its fascinating di-versity and value creation in rural areas.

6. Colleagues in the IFCN Centre: You are invited to build a life time career in the IFCN Centre to operate globally and enjoy a stable local life. You are also welcome to use IFCN as the ideal stepping stone for further developments in the dairy world.

For further information please contact: [email protected]

The dairy world todayToday the dairy world serves over 7 billion consumers and provides livelihoods for approximately 1 billion people living on dairy farms. The key challenges for the dairy stakeholders lie in its complexity and the high rate of change in a globalised world.

About IFCNIFCN is a global dairy research network. By addressing challenges in the dairy world, IFCN can contribute to a more resilient and more sustainable future for all of us.

What does IFCN do?IFCN provides globally comparable dairy data, outstanding know-ledge and inspiration to stretch one’s imagination. Its core com-petence lies in the field of milk production, milk prices and related economic topics.

About IFCN


IFCN Dairy Research Center and IFCN Board

Torsten Hemme

ManagingDirector

ŁukaszWyrzykowski

Dairy Analysis Team

Anna-Maria Woehl

ZarifOmid

OybekKalandarov

PrashantTripathi

Network Management

KatrinReincke

MariekeFischer

SwantjeBruhn

ElginAtakli

MuzaffarYunusov

MateuszWęgrzynowski

Elgin Giffhorn

BirtePetersen

PhilippGoetz

Franziska Rekow

MariaSchmeer

AnnikaJarrens

JohannaScholz

Karin Wesseling

SandraBornhöft

Office Management

Dorothee Bölling

Ufukhan Hamurcuoğlu

AmitSaha

Organisational setupIFCN stands for International Farm Comparison Network and is a global dairy research network. The IFCN has a Dairy Research Center (DRC) with 24 employees coordinating the network process and running dairy research activities.

The IFCN Board has the mandate to support the IFCN management in the strategic development and guarantee transparency in the operation to the members of the network.

The IFCN Board is composed of the following members: Anders Fagerberg (chairman), Luc Morelon (nominated by the supporters), Ernesto Reyes (nominated by the researchers), Uwe Latacz-Lohmann (Kiel University), Olaf Rosenbaum (legal and fiscal expertise) and Torsten Hemme (Managing Director IFCN).

AndersFagerbergChairman

OlafRosenbaum

ErnestoReyes

Luc Morelon

Uwe Latacz-Lohmann

TorstenHemme

SalehAmiralai

IFCN Dairy Research Center IFCN Board


19th IFCN Dairy Conference, June 9 – 13, 2018 in Cork, Ireland

Monday, June 11

DAIRY WORLD STATUS

IFCN Strategy and board report

Dairy sector – global overview• Driversoftheworldmilkprice2017• Paneldiscussion:Whatarethegamechan-

gers of the dairy world in 2018?

Key drivers for the dairy world• TheIrishdairysector(T. Donnellan, Teagasc)• Whatarethemainstakesfordairy companies today? (L. Morelon) • Technologiesthatarechangingagricul-

ture and the food supply chain (R. Walker, Alltech)

Dairy farm economics • Competitivenessofdairyfarming worldwide• Sustainabilityandresilience

Network evening

Tuesday, June 12

FARM TECHNOLOGY Farm technology• ChallengesandopportunitiesfortheIrish

DairyIndustry(P. Dillon, Teagasc)• Farmtechnologiesbyinnovativecompanies

(G. Kau, DSM)• Mechanisationondairyfarms

Workshop • ValuesandbenefitsofanIFCNResearcher

Partnership • Areas,prioritiesandleadershipinfarm

technology

Poster session

Farewell evening

Wednesday, June 13

DAIRY OUTLOOK Dairy outlook • Futureeconomicandenvironmentalsustai-

nability of EU dairy production (T. Hennessy, Cork University Business School)

• IFCNLong-termDairyOutlook2030–thedairy world in the next 12 years

• Workshop:IFCNPartnershipin2030• IFCNShort-termDairyOutlook2018/19• IFCNWayforward–TheIFCNDairyResearch

Networkin2018/19

Summing up and closing

IFCN Dairy Conference 2018

Farm technology: Past, present and future

The 19th IFCN Dairy Conference 2018 in Cork, Ireland, was attended by 83 participants representing 38 countries. The conference was proudly hosted by Teagasc. The event was also sponsored by DSM, Department of Agriculture Food and the Marine, Alltech, Ornua, icos, dairygold and Bank of Ireland.


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Chart 1. In which area will the most important technology breakthrough in developing regions take place?

Chart 2. What are the greatest limitations to new farm technology development in developed regions?

Results from IFCN Dairy Conference

Farm technology: past, present and futureFarm mechanisation enters the digital age now, creating an unprecedented amount of data and new decision-making capabilities. Therefore, farm techno-logy, both in developing and developed countries, is high on the agenda. This year’s IFCNDairyConference,hostedbyTeagascandsponsoredbyDSM, theDepartmentofAgriculture,FoodandtheMarine,Alltech,Ornua,icos,dairygoldandBankofIreland,exploredthepast,presentandthefutureoffarmtechno-logyaroundtheworld.DuringintensedaysofdiscussionbetweenIFCNResear-chers and representatives from international companies, it became clear that technology plays an important role everywhere although on different levels.

Farm technology today AnnuallyIFCNattemptstodefinethestatusquoofcurrentdevelopmentsbymeans of a survey and, in this way, catch a glimpse into the future of dairy far-ming. The 2018 results of the opinion survey (n=131, 48 different countries) show that:• The highest density of robotic milking systems can be found in Western

Europe. • Onethirdofallanalysedfarmsusespedometersforheatdetectionandone

quarterusesautomaticcalffeeders.• Replacing labour with technology is an important issue for dairy farms of all

sizes. However, certain technologies are more relevant for larger herd sizes.• Levels of dairy farm mechanisation, which are related to labour

productivity, are spread unequally between theNorthern and SouthernHemisphere.

Farm technology innovation in the futureThe conference participants, divided into working groups, discussed the fu-ture developments of dairy farms in relation to their specific region. The main focusareasvarieddependingonthedifferentpartsof theworld:BigdataplayanimportantroleinEuropeandtheUSA.Agreatamountofdatahasalready been collected but there is a lack of interfaces and the proper tech-nology to combine this mass of data from different sources, and to analyse it. Research Partners agreed that a more efficient use of big data would help to give advice to farmers and to improve farm management. In general, better milking machines are considered as impactful technology to influence farm profitability,e.g. inColombiaandBangladesh.Milkingrobotsaretheidealmilking system for smaller farms (50-200 cows), while rotary platforms are more common on larger farms. InthecaseofSwitzerland,robotmilkingmight

Source: HEMME T (2018): Outcome Paper from the 19th IFCN Dairy Conference. https://ifcndairy.org/press/

improve farm profitability on smaller farms, especially if second hand robots wereused.Mobilerobot-milkingisusefulinfullgrazingsystems.IncountrieswithahotclimatelikeMexico,IranandJordan,thecoolingofcowsandmilk,plays an important role for future technology development. The focus, for de-velopingcountries,liesonfodderproductionandtheimprovementofitsquali-ty.Forexample,inZimbabwe,betterharvestingandhigh-techequipment(e.g.irrigationsystems)wouldhelptoimproveefficiencyandproductivity.Ontheotherhand,IFCNResearchPartnerfromJordan,considersthattechnologiestoimprove feeding and the use of water would be more impactful in his region. Overall, ineverycountry,thetrend,whichismainlydrivenbytheindustry,ismovingtowardshighermilkquality,betterfodderandgreaterlabourproducti-vity, although the levels of technology are very diverse.

Voting resultsAt the conclusion of the workshop, an electronic voting took place which gene-rated results on drivers and limitations of farm technology development:• In the next five years, the most important technology breakthrough in

developingcountrieswilltakeplaceinfeedproduction/formulationanddairy farm management according to the opinion of the participants (chart 1). Out of 61 people, 46% thought that InformationTechnologyplays the most important role in developed countries.

• Bothindevelopinganddevelopeddairyregions,InformationTechnologywill have the biggest impact on dairy farm management.

• The most limiting factors for new farm technology in developing regions are access to funding and capital limits, while in developed regions they are the lack of overall strategy and regulations regarding the climate and environment (chart 2).


15th IFCN Supporter Conference, September 19 – 21, 2017 in Lucerne, Switzerland

Tuesday, September 19

THE DAIRY WORLD IN 2017

Pre Conference:

Understanding industry needs towards IFCN• IFCN-Thecompanyandtheirproducts• IFCNMonthlyRealTimeFarmEconomics–

new development in the tools

Official start of the conference • Welcometothe15thIFCNSupporterConfe-

rence

The dairy world today• Thedairyworldin2017• IFCNMonthlyRealTimeData–Whatarethe

latest developments• IFCNFarmEconomicssituationin2017• Globalfarmstructuredevelopmentand

trends• WhatmadeSwitzerlandasuccessfuldairy

region? (C. Gazzarin, Agroscope)

Networking evening

Wednesday, September 20

SUCCESSFUL DAIRY REGIONS Successful dairy regions• Successfuldairyregionsintheworld• Developingsuccessfuldairyregionsthatare

continuouslymoresustainable– (Nestlé)

Workshop session 1 • Whichkeydriversmadeadairyregion

successful in the past

Workshop session 2 • Whichkeydriverswillmakethedairyregion

successful in the future.

Dairy farm and Kalbach cheese cave visit

Networking evening

Thursday, September 21

DAIRY OUTLOOK Global perspectives of milk production • Reflectionsonavoyageofdiscoveryinthe

strategicanalysisjungle–(E. Elgersma)• HowSwissdairysectorwouldlooklikein10

years?–(Hochdorf)• IFCNLong-termDairyOutlook2027 –Howwillthedairyworldlooklikein10

years?• IFCNShort-termDairyOutlook2017/2018

–Howwillthedairyworldlooklikein15months?

Reporting sessions

Summing up and closing

IFCN Supporter Conference 2017

The 15th IFCN Supporter Conference was held in Lucerne, Switzerland. More than 80 participants from 70 dairy related companies attended the conference which was hosted by Emmi, Nestlé and Hochdorf.

What makes a dairy region successful?


What makes a dairy region successful? Results from the IFCN Supporter Conference 2017The success in dairy regions requires leadership and processors are seenthattheycantakeastrongerroleinthefuture.Besidethedriversformilkproduction, it is a common approach to strengthen the image of dairy and training of dairy farmers.Torsten Hemme underlines that the milk price cycle will end in 2017 and starts over in 2018. Reason for the volatility in prices is still that milk supply acts with a delay on world price changes. This delay is a key driver for the continuouspricevolatility.Itjusttakestimefromachangeofworldpricestonationalprices,tofarmeconomicsandthenforthedairyfarmertoadjust& hence paving the way for dairy development discussions.

The workshop: ‘What makes a dairy region successful?’ inspired the participants to go back in history, thinking about what drove regions deve-lopment in the past and identify new drivers that will influence the future development. The challenge is to learn from the history and be prepared for the future.

Results on past driversMilkproductionwas–accordingtothevotingoftheparticipants–mostlydriven by natural (33%), market (24%) and political (19%) factors. The natural factors such as water and climate put a lot of pressure on the regions and will havealso in the futuremajor impact, asweather conditionsgettingmoreextreme. Population growth in the world and income growth in emerging countries led by itself to a higher demand in the world and this trend will continue.

Results on future driversThe new drivers that might arise in the future to influence the milk produc-tion were clearly seen in the progress of technology (28%) and social factors (27%). The participants were commenting that especially technology is im-proving the economy on the farm, but also the technology in new products made contributed to dairy development. Improvement of the dairy image inthedevelopedworld–havingagrowingveganmovementandincrea-singconcernsonanimalwelfare–isaworkingboxthatcommonlyshouldbe taken by the dairy chain members. The training of the farmers also can contribute to strengthen the basis of the entire dairy development.

However, even with the new drivers of technology and social factors, the limitation of natural resources is and will be the most restrictive factor, even in the future. And also, policies and other governmental impact will carry high weight, when it comes to where the milk will be produced in the future.

Key take away messages• The future of the dairy sector is uncertain, more than in the past; the

factors of influencing the dairy market are unpredictable.• BigfarmswillbetheEUleaderinthedairysector:Farmstructurechangesin

Europe(heree.g.Germany)willdecreaseby4.6%thefarmsintheco-ming10years,inthesametime,farmsizewillincreaseby4.8%animals/farm.Numbersofcowswillremainstable.

• Leadershipfordairydevelopmentindevelopedregionsisprobablybesttaken by milk processors. This is in accordance with what was also con-cludedfromthe IFCNResearchers in the IFCNDairyConference. Con-tinuous and comparable dairy data are key information when looking onthecurrentstatusofthecountryorregion.Data,metricsandimpactanalysis are crucial to define the right strategy. Investing resources for projectdesignandmonitoringareessentialforasuccessfulprogramme.

• Lifttheimageofdairyisoneofthecommonareaswherethemembersof the entire dairy chain can work together and ensure a constant dairy development, ensuring income.

Results from IFCN Supporter Conference

What have been the most important drivers for milk production in the past?

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KEY LEARNING RESULTS

Lessons learnt by the companies from their dairy development programmes:• Needtofindthebestpolicies.• Promotetechnology.• Improvestandardsandimageofdairy.• Communicatewiththecustomer.• Haveaccesstohighqualitystatisticaldata.• Bringdairytalentsintothedecision-makingbodies• CooperationinR&D


6th IFCN Regional Workshop, November 28 – 29, 2017 in Chennai, India

Tuesday, June 6

INDIAN DAIRY EXPERIENCE

Field trip• Visittolocaldairyfarm• Interactionwithdairyfarmer• VisittoLactalisdairyplant

Official start of the conference • Welcometothe6thIFCNRegionalWorkshop• WorkinggroupchallengesdairyfarmsfaceinIndia

Networking evening

Tuesday, June 7

INTERACTIVE SESSION

Dairy sector trends and drivers• Globaldairytrendsanddrivers(T.Hemme,IFCN)• Indiandairytrendsanddrivers(R.Kumar,Lactalis)• Indiadairyperspective(S.Mudgil,Rabobank)

Status trends and drivers of family dairy farm• Farmsstructuretrendsandpatternswithcasestudy-IFCN• Processorspanel:Corporateprogrammesstrengthening• Familyfarms

Workshop – Design the future of family farming in India• Future:Suitableprogrammesandleadership• Voting:Prioritiesformakingfamilyfarmssustainable

Presentations of the result and sum up of the workshop

IFCN Regional Workshop 2017

This IFCN Regional Workshop took place in Chennai, Tamil Nadu; more than 74 participants representing various aspects of the dairy value chain became part of the discussions and group working session. The workshop focused on the topic: Sustainability of family dairy farms in India. These questions were intensively discussed among the participants – key people who represented various stakeholders in the dairy chain including farmers and government representatives. The workshop provided a suitable frame and platform for participants to exchange experiences and discuss various different approaches for dairy development in India. Presentations by IFCN researchers and agribusi-ness-related companies introduced the topic. A panel of representatives of different aspects of dairy value chains was also very well received. The workshop was proudly sponsored by Cavin Kare, Elanco and Lactalis.

Sustainability of family dairy farms


Results from IFCN Regional Workshop 2017

Sustainability of family dairy farms in India.The workshop discussed the sustainability of family dairy farms in India and explored the possible solutions for the new challenges and the most likely trends that will be faced by the Indian family dairy farmers in the future.More than 70 participants, representing various aspects of thedairy value chain, became part of the discussions and group working sessions.

Kick started with an informative field visit with touristic aspects Theworkshopguidedtheparticipantstoworkedonthekeyquestionspertaining the sustainability of family farms. The aim was to develop ideas how to solve the issues and who should take leadership to success-fully solve it.

Upon successful discussion and workshop the following results were found

1) Global dairy: Globaldairyperspective isessential for Indiatoesta-blish the current standing (competitive position) of the sector and to decide where it want to be (future completive position).

2) Processors: Sustainabilityofprocessorscanonlybeguaranteedbyensuring the sustainability of the farmers. To realize this, the processors must take a lead in providing need-based solutions to the farmers.

3) Farm structure developments:

• Farmsstructuralchange:Sustainable family farmswillgradually re-place the household farms once salaries and off-farm employment opportunity arise.

• Definingcriteria:forsustainabilityshallbedefinedbyfarmersthem-selves.

• Eco-social: The Eco-social factor for sustainability of family farms will be initially more decisive than environmental factor.

• Farm dynamics: For the time being the optimal size of a family farm is deemed to be 10-15 animals.

• Holistic knowledge: Will define priorities in adaptation of technolo-gies on the farm.

4) Farm management skills are the bottlenecks for family farm development:

• Training of farmers in skill and management remains a key challenge inIndia.Governmentandprivateactorsshouldtogethercreatetrai-nings which are giving farmers a holistic view on their farms.

• Recording and accounting are important as you only can improve whatyoucanmeasure.Startwiththeprogressiveandmotivatedfarmfamilies to create examples for the followers.

Almost 50% of the participants put the highest priority on improvement ofskills,secondprioritywasgiventofiveissueswithalmostequalrating,thatisnextgeneration,land/feedandwater,qualityanimals,unproduc-tive animals, financing the family farms.

As the issue of farm management skills have been on highest priority thistopicshallbeexploredfurther.ForthatIFCNdairyexpertshavebeenworking on the topic after the workshop. The points below describe spe-cific areas of farm management skills where family farmers have challen-ges and what potential solutions can be.

System knowledge: Importance of having holistic view of the dairy far-ming system to define the fitting dairy system.

Farmers perspective:Beawareofhisabilities, limitationsandbenefitsof improvements.

Trainer attitude:Trainersshouldmeetthefarmersonanequalinterper-sonalandsubjectunderstandinglevel.

Basic skills: Concentrate on ABCs of dairy farming and better under-standing the business and emphasis on entrepreneur skills, implement follow-ups and complimentary trainings.

Long-term planning and management: Simplefarm/businessdevelop-ment plan, with priorities upon investment,

Short-term planning:Simpleannualoperationalplan,withbudgetandSOP’sformajoractivities.


Tuesday, February 27

Introduction to dairy economics • Dairyfarmanalysis–Farmeconomicsacrosstheglobe• Dairysectoranalysis–Howdoestheglobaldairyworldlooklike?

Workshop session• Principlesofthedairymarket

Networking events

Wednesday, February 28

Current situation and analysis• Farmstructure–What‘sbehindthesegments?• Dairyfarmeconomics–Currentsituationandhowtopredictthe

dairy future?• Companycasestudies–Learnhowtoaddressstrategicdevelop-

mentquestions

Presentation for the results and sum up of the workshop

Optional IFCN Product Training

IFCN Dairy Economic Workshop 2018

This fourth IFCN Dairy Economic Workshop took place in Kiel, Germany. It was attended by 12 participants from different dairy related companies, institutions and institutes.

4th IFCN Dairy Economic Workshop, February 27 – 28, 2018 in Kiel, Germany

Dairy economics is more than just the price of milk


The first IFCN Dairy Hub Workshop took place in Buenos Aires, Argentina. It was attended by 18 participants from different dairy related companies, institutions and institutes. Organized jointly by IFCN and Argentinian Research Partner Hugo Quattrochi, this workshop generated a space for the local exchange on drivers, trends, scenarios and perspectives of the global dairy economy. This initiative promoted by IFCN in Argentina seeks to establish a local window from which to understand the economy of the dairy world.

1st IFCN Dairy Hub Argentina, July 4, 2018 in Buenos Aires, Argentina

A window to the dairy world

Tuesday, June 6

INDIAN DAIRY EXPERIENCE

• Introduction• Whatishappeninginthedairyeconomicworld?• Globalmilkproductionandstructuralchanges• IFCNLong-termandshort-termoutlook• Whatishappeninginthedairyeconomicworld?• Conclusions

Networking lunch

Feedback: „It is a great opportunity

for Argentina to maintain this space

of exchange“.

Feedback: „It was great to

understand models of the past that

help predict the future“.

Feedback: „The panorama of

Argentina for the next six months

is very interesting“.

Feedback: „The distortion between

the global and local price was most

interesting, as well as the possibility to

understand where we stand“.


List of events with IFCN participation

IFCN Presentations at international conferences (2017)

BÖLLING D (2017): IFCN: Typical Farm Approach and TIPICAL. Presen-tation at Inception Workshop: Cost of production 3R (Resilient, Ro-bust, Reliable), Nairobi, Kenya, 20-21 March 2017.

BÖLLING D (2017): Global dairy trends, drivers & outlook. Presentati-on at CDDIF, Beijing, China, 11-12 January 2017.

HEMME T (2017): Dairy economics – The dairy world now and in 2025. Presentation at Dairy Summit, Rome, Italy, 4-6 April 2017.

HEMME T (2017): Globale Trends und Perspektiven in der Milchwirt-schaft. Presentation at VDMA-Milchforum, Kassel, Germany, 8-9 Fe-bruary 2017.

HEMME T (2017): Latest global trends in the evolution of dairy farms. Presentation at IDF World Dairy Summit, International Dairy Federati-on, Belfast, Northern Ireland, 29 October - 3 November.

HEMME T (2017): Los sistemas de producción láctea actuales a nivel mundial y su evolución a corto-medio plazo. Presentation at Inlac conference, Madrid, Spain, 17 March 2017.

HEMME T (2017): Markets post Brexit. Presentation at Progressive Dairy Operator’s Conference 2017, Kite Consulting, Warrington, Eng-land, 9-10 October 2017.

HEMME T (2017): Recent dynamics in dairy farms around the world. Presentation at 2nd International meeting on Milk, vector of develop-ment, Rabat, Morocco, 10-11 May 2017.

HEMME T (2017): The Status of Global Dairy Economy and the Pro-spects in 2018. Presentation at International Dairy Innovation Inte-gration Seminar, Zhuangzuzizhiqu, China, 10 November 2017.

HEYER A (2017): Global trends and perspectives for Middle East and Africa. Presentation at 2nd Global Dairy Congress MEA, INRA and CIR-AD, Cairo, Egypt, 4-5 July 2017.

HEYER A (2017): World milk production outlook. Presentation at Eu-colat Meetings 2017, European Association of Dairy Trade, Brussels, Belgium, 30-31 January 2017.

JARRENS A (2017): Poster at Dairy Asia Multi-Stakeholder Meeting, FAO, Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar, 6-11 November 2017. http://dairyasia.org/Events/6-10-Nov-17/Proceedings.pdf

REINCKE K (2017): Poster at EU commodity market development: Medium-term agricultural outlook, European Commission, Brussels, Belgium, 19-20 October 2017.

RUSETSKA U (2017): Dairy farm economics: current situation and how to predict the future. Presentation at East European Dairy Congress & International Caucasian Dairy Forum, Tbilisi, Georgia, 14 March 2017.

SCHIER A (2017): Preisrisiko in der Milchproduktion. Presentation at 67. Öffentliche Hochschultagung, Christian-Albrechts-Universität, Kiel, Germany, 2 February 2017.

TRIPATHI P (2017): Panelist at Dairy Forum 2017, International Dairy Foods Association, Orlando, Florida, 29 January - 2 February 2017.

WYRZYKOWSKI Ł(2017): Dairy developments across the world. Pre-sentation at Dairy Industry Newsletter Conference, London, England, 16-18 May 2017.

WYRZYKOWSKI Ł (2017): IFCN Long-term view of Milk Supply and De-mand. Presentation at Dairy Vision 2017, Agripoint, Curitiba, Brazil, 30 November - 1 December 2017.


IFCN Supporter Partnership benefits:

• IFCNDairyReport:5hardcopiesannually• AccesstotheIFCNSupporterConference• E-mailhotline:remarksandfirstsuggestionsforurgentquestions• IFCNNewsletter• IFCN Publication: Information about all actual IFCN Publications and

their availability • Logopositioning in the IFCNDairyReport, the IFCNWorldDairyMap

andontheIFCNWebsite

Monthly Real Time Data incl. farm economicsThis real time product delivers data on milk production, milk & feed prices and describes the current situation and on-going development on dairy markets to optimise short-term operational business processes on a global andonacountry level.AsummarywiththekeymessageandIFCNAna-lysis are sendwith thisdataproduct.Dataprovide real-time situationofthe dairy market with price analysis, making anticipating short-term shifts and changes in the dairy markets easier. This year additional information onfatandproteinproductionhasalsobeenaddedtothedata.SampleFig1highlightsUSAmilkpriceandimplicationonmilkproductionandfarmeconomics

Dairy Sector Data & Long-term OutlookThe comprehensive IFCN product supports long-term strategic businessdecisions providing comparable country level data. It contains the parts: time line data since 1996, regional data and IFCN Long-termDairyOut-look2030.Database reflectshow theoveralldairy situation looks like inthe country of analysis, helping in assessing the real market potentials. Standardisedandqualityapprovedcountrydataincreaseyourefficiency in business analysis and business development by reducing the data mining time.SampleFig2showsmilkproductionuntil2017andOutlook2030forchanging farm dynamics for India.

Dairy Demand DataIFCNprovidesabackbone for real timeanalysisof theglobaldairymar-ketbycoveringthewholepictureofthemilkbalance.IFCNMonthlyDairyDemandDataproductcreatesbenefitsforusersoncomparabilityoftotaltraded volumes and visualisation of results in one dashboard makes ba-sis for further internal analysis. This product supports to monitor demand development and its seasonality via looking at the ex-post data as well as current the trends. Total dairy export-import, stock changes data in milk equivalence(ME–fatandproteinbasedon)volumesleadIFCNPartnerstounderstand short-term market trends and milk pool situation in 62 coun-tries.SampleFig3illustratescomparesmilkdemandofGermany.

Dairy Farm Comparison DataThe farm sector data facilitates strategic decision making by presenting a uniquetoolforbenchmarkingdairyfarmsworld-wide.Therearenewkeyfigures embedded in the product; cost components of the dairy enterprise and actual farm economics. These figures help to get an even better insight in actual farm economics in the analysed countries. With the data, gain a deeperunderstandingofcostcompetitivenessandKPIsofdairyproduc-tion such as efficiency, labour and land costs, capital, yield and prices. Fig 4 compares farms in Indian,Germany, andNewZealandon costofmilkproduction,non-milkreturnsandLabourproductivity.

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-349

NZ

-119

1

USD

/100

kg

milk

(ECM

)

Other returns (manure, ect.)

Decoupled subsidies

Coupled subsidies + VAT surplus

Cattle returns

0

50

10 0

15 0

20 0

25 0

30 0

35 0

40 0

DE

-30S

DE

-131

N

IN-7

N

IN-2

0N

NZ

-349

NZ

-119

1

USD

/100

kg

milk

(ECM

)

IFCN Supporter Partnership and IFCN Data Products

IFCN Supporter PartnershipIFCNSupporterPartnersaredairy-relatedcompanieswhichbenefitfromthenetworkbyreceivingcomparabledataforstrategicand operational decision-making, knowledge and inspiration.

Milk prices in USD/100 kg ECM Change in milk production on monthly basis

Margin over compund feed costs in USD/100 kg

Milk production National herd size and average milk yield (cow, buffalo)

Farm number and size

Change in milk demand on monthly basis

Monthly trade balance in mill t ME Monthly change in stocks in mill t ME

Cost analysis based IFCN Family Living costs

Non-milk returns and decoupled subsidies

Labour productivity kg milk (ECM)/hour

Dairy sector and chain profile | 20© IFCN Dairy Report 2018

Łukasz Wyrzykowski

Net trade balance in1000tME,fromalldairyspecies

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

Condensed milk Dry products

Butter Cheese

Fresh products

Status and key developments

Status 2017

• No.6intheworldmilkproduction

• 96%ofthe33.4milltmilk(ECM)aredelivered

• 3.46milliontMEnetexports

• 44% of dairy exports are cheese

Key developments 2012-2017

• Farmers' milk price on Ø 7.5% above the world market price

• Farmers' share on consumer price decreased from

48.8% to 45.3%

• 111% self-sufficiency in milk

-1 0

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan-

06Ja

n-07

Jan-

08Ja

n-09

Jan-

10Ja

n-11

Jan-

12Ja

n-13

Jan-

14Ja

n-15

Jan-

16Ja

n-17

Jan-

18

Distance nat. vs. world in EUR

National farm gate milk price

IFCN World Milk Price Indicator

Farm gate milk priceEUR/100kgECM

Consumer & farmers' pricesEUR/100kgECM

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

*other milk Fresh products

Condense d milk Dry products

Butter Cheese

Processing profile % of all milk produced

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

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40

1997

1999

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2003

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2009

2011

2013

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2017

Milk production (ECM)

Dairy consumption (ME)

Surplus / Deficit (ME)

Milk balancein mill t, from all dairy species

Key variablesAnnual change

1996 2000 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2016 2017 '07-'12 '12-'17

Milk production (cow's)Production(milltECM) 30.00 29.36 29.49 29.30 29.25 29.99 31.07 32.07 33.35 33.48 33.38 1.5% 1.2% Cows(in1,000's) 5,195 4,564 4,338 4,164 4,087 4,169 4,190 4,268 4,285 4,218 4,199 0.5% 0.0%Milkyield(t/cow/year) 5.77 6.43 6.80 7.04 7.16 7.19 7.42 7.51 7.78 7.94 7.95 1.0% 1.2%

Dairy consumption (from all dairy species)Countryconsumption(milltME) 25.26 24.06 25.44 23.72 25.65 24.82 27.14 26.62 28.68 29.02 30.08 0.8% 2.4% Population (mill people) 81.5 81.5 81.5 81.3 81.0 80.5 80.3 80.6 81.7 82.5 82.7 -0.1% 0.5% Consumption(kgME/capita/year) 310 295 312 292 317 308 338 330 351 352 364 1.0% 1.8%

The dairy chain Percent change p.a. Milkdelivered(cow's)in% 94% 95% 96% 96% 96% 97% 97% 97% 96% 96% 96% 0.1% -0.2% Exports/nat.production 39.1% 45.7% 48.6% 51.2% 49.1% 48.9% 50.0% 54.5% 53.3% 53.5% 54.2% 1.0% 0.1% Imports/nat.consumption 27.7% 33.6% 40.3% 39.5% 42.1% 39.2% 42.1% 45.1% 45.7% 46.9% 48.6% 0.7% 0.6%

Processor 1

Processor 2-10

Rest 35%

Milk processors list 2017 Milkintakein1,000tons(naturalcontent)

1.DMKDeutschesMilchkontor2. Hochwald Foods 3.UnternehmensgruppeTheoMüller4. Arla Foods 5.MolkereiAmmerland6.frischliMilchwerke7.GoldsteigKäsereienBayerwald8.MeiereiBarmstedt9.Rücker10.BayerischeMilchindustrie

Cooperatives:49%ofmilkintakeshownShareonnationalmilkdelivery:

ExplanationsMethod: See Chapter 3.9 for details. Sources: National statistics supplemented by data from FAO, IMF, OANDA, GTT, Eurostat, AMI. Data: 2017 data preliminary and partly estimated. Cooperatives share on milk intake shown in the list is an IFCN estimate based on partner information. Consumer price (raw data) for: Fresh milk, 1 litre with 3.5% fat, 3.17% protein. Remarks: Milk processor list: Hochwald Foods (2016), frischli & Bayerische Milchindustrie (2015), Theo Mueller & Ruecker (2013).*other milk: Milk not delivered to dairies and milk from animals other than cow and buffalo. If applicable: Sheep, goat and camel.

8100 2321 2000 1759 1739 865 890 957 850 838

3.46 Germany

Milk production (ECM)

Dairy consumption (ME)

Surplus / Decit (ME)


Butter Cheese

Fresh products

National farm gate milk price

IFCN World Milk Price Indicator

Share (Processor, retailer)

Farm gate milk price

Consumer price VAT

*other milk Fresh products


Butter Cheese

Share (Processor, retailer)

Farm gate milk price

Consumer price VAT

0

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2017


Partners of the IFCN

ISSN 1610-434X

International Dairy Federation

www.ifcndairy.org

Milking and barn equipment

Health and hygiene

Farm machinery

Genetics for animal & plants Finance

Other branches of the dairy chain

Milk processing

Feed

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