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Daily Vocab Capsule 27th October 2019

Economy To BJP: Are You Listening?

State results may be the first warning for BJP that nationalism+welfarism won’t deliver anymore.

There are so many ways to slice and dice Indian election results that those brave and/ or foolish enough to try

and quickly interpret verdicts run a high chance of missing any number of insights. With that caveat out of the

way, here’s my day-of-the-result take on what is the most significant message Haryanvis and Maharashtrians

have sent to BJP.

That message is: The ongoing economic slowdown is finally starting to show up as a non-trivial electoral

determinant.

There are good arguments against my thesis.

BJP’s Haryana performance can be explained by a re-consolidation of Jat votes against the party. Indeed, BJP’s

2019 assembly poll vote share has gone up in Haryana compared to 2014 (36.2% vs 33.2%). That the party still

couldn’t get a simple majority is surely because Jats decided to try and vote out the non-Jat incumbent chief

minister Manohar Lal Khattar.

In Maharashtra, BJP’s strike rate has actually improved, since it contested fewer seats this time (164 in 2019, 260

in 2014) – in 2014 state polls, BJP and Shiv Sena fought separately. And even while contesting far fewer seats in

2019, BJP’s vote share has dropped moderately to 25.3%, compared to 27.8% in 2014 state polls. BJP’s pre-poll

ally Shiv Sena’s vote share has also dropped moderately to 17% from 19.4% in 2014. This is difficult to read as

a big swing in Maharashtra against the ruling combine. And after all, BJP and Sena, whatever their internal

wrangling now, are comfortably placed to retain power. And in Haryana, BJP is still the single largest party.

State and national verdicts have started going different ways repeatedly, and so to read a national message from

state polls is a fallacy. MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh voted BJP out in 2018 and Gujarat gave BJP a fright in

2017 state polls but all states voted overwhelmingly for the party in 2019 national polls. Odisha gave BJP a

handsome proportion of Lok Sabha seats but resoundingly elected BJD in the state assembly, when polls were

held simultaneously earlier this year. Karnataka didn’t give BJP a clear mandate in state polls – the subsequent

fall of the Congress-JD(S) government was a different story – but BJP swept in Lok Sabha. Given all this, won’t

it be injudicious to read Haryana and Maharashtra results as anything more than mostly a sum of local factors?

For example, BJP managed restive Marathas in Maharashtra better than it did restive Jats in Haryana. Or, the fact

that seven of Khattar’s ministers lost in Haryana indicates that local factors played a big role.

All of this does seem to question my thesis about these results being the first warning sign from the economy to

BJP. So, here are my counterarguments.

First, elections were held in Haryana and Maharashtra with Congress in near-disarray, BJP’s poll machinery in

top gear and its two big stars and strategists, Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, front and centre in campaigning.

Imagine if Congress hadn’t blundered over Haryana’s local party leadership and in Maharashtra, it had

campaigned vigorously. It is not a stretch to think BJP may have suffered more in both states.

Second, BJP barely mentioned economy and related issues in its campaigning. Its themes were ‘nationalism’ and

welfarism. This combination won general election for the party earlier this year, when the economy was already

in the slowdown mode. This formula was buttressed post-general election. First, by extending the PM-Kisan

scheme to more income groups. Second, via the Jammu and Kashmir decision on Articles 370 and 35A. Third,

by aggressive rhetoric on illegal migrants and the National Register for Citizens. And fourth, via the Bharat Ratna

for Veer Savarkar pitch. This seemed a potent combination to many, including all pollsters bar Axis. But

something else was at play against this – that surely is at least one explanation for BJP’s less-than-rousing

performance in both states.

It’s not at all illogical to suggest that the ‘something else’ was the sharpening of the economic slowdown post-

general election. Maharashtra is India’s largest state economy and Haryana, although a small state, is the 13th

largest state economy, and fifth in terms of per capita income. Both have good industrial bases and large rural

populations. The sharpening slowdown has, all data sets suggest, hit both urban and rural population. Rural

demand distress is in fact now acute. In both Haryana and Maharashtra, BJP’s electoral performance in many

rural areas shows a distinct dip. It will be heroic to argue that the slowing economy is not playing a role at all.

Indeed, an interesting hypothesis to explore will be whether local factors against BJP assumed sharper overtones

because the economic slowdown is so pronounced. That is, had the economy been doing better, may be the Jat

vote in Haryana and local issues that pulled BJP/ Sena down in some Maharashtra regions would have had less

impact.

Finally, GDP growth was likely around 5% or may be slightly less – FY20 second quarter data is yet to come out

– as campaigning for these state elections got underway. It’s not unreasonable to assume that in a country that

needs 8% average annual growth on a sustained basis to aim for mass prosperity, 5% growth will start impacting

poll results at some point of time.

So, there’s likely a message from the economy to BJP from Haryana and Maharashtra. The party should listen.

Courtesy: The Times of India (National)

1. Caveat (Noun): Meaning: A warning to consider something before taking any more action. (चेतावनी)

Synonyms: Forewarning, Proviso, Admonition, Stipulation

Example: She will be offered treatment, with the caveat that it may not work.

2. Wrangling (Noun): Meaning: Engagement in a long, complicated dispute or argument. (तकरार)

Synonyms: Scuffle, Squabble, Fracas, Ruction

Antonyms: Consensus, Accord, Harmony, Rapport

Example: There had been a great deal of wrangling over the menu.

3. Fallacy (Noun): Meaning: An idea that a lot of people think is true but is in fact false. (भ्रान्ति)

Synonyms: Misbelief, Myth, Delusion, Misconception

Antonyms: Verity, Factuality, Truthfulness, Reality

Example: This is a common fallacy which has no basis in fact.

4. Resoundingly (adverb): Meaning: Completely or in a very definite way. (भरपूर/पूर्ण रूप से)

Synonyms: Definitely, Indubitably, Unquestionably, Emphatically

Antonyms: Ambiguously, Vaguely, Uncertainly, Indistinctly

Example: She was resoundingly supported by the spectators.

5. Restive (adjective): Meaning: Unwilling to be controlled or be patient. (अशाांत, बेचैन)

Synonyms: Restless, Fidgety, Agitated, Edgy

Antonyms: Calm, Tranquil, Composed, Unruffled

Example: The citizens were becoming restive as they found their rights violated.

6. Buttress (verb): Meaning: To make support for an idea or argument stronger by providing a good reason for

it. (सहारा देना; समर्णन देना)

Synonyms: Strengthen, Uphold, Brace, Reinforce, Underpin

Antonyms: Undermine, Weaken, Undercut

Example: You need more facts to buttress up your argument.

7. Simultaneously (adverb): Meaning: In a way that is simultaneous (= happening or being done at exactly the

same time). (एक ही समय पर)

Synonyms: Concurrently, Concomitantly, At Once, in Concert

Antonyms: Singly, Seriatim, Individually, One by One

Example: He does many tasks simultaneously.

8. Injudicious (adjective): Meaning: Showing very poor judgement. (वववेकहीन)

Synonyms: Unwise, Imprudent, Indiscreet, Ill-Advised

Antonyms: Sensible, Shrewd, Astute, Sagacious

Example: He has apologized for his injudicious act of wasting water.

9. Acute (adjective): Meaning: (of an unpleasant situation) present or experienced to an intense degree. (तीव्र,

ववकट)

Synonyms: Drastic, Grave, Pressing, Severe

Antonyms: Negligible, Moderate, Noncritical, Temperate

Example: The housing shortage is more acute than first thought.

10. Rousing (adjective): Meaning: Making people feel excited and proud or ready to take action. (उते्तजक,

पे्ररर्ादायक)

Synonyms: Stirring, Stimulating, Electrifying, Moving

Antonyms: Humdrum, Dull, Dreary, Jejune

Example: The players were greeted by rousing cheers.