DAILY REPORT · FX rates and money market FX rates on domestic market International markets...
Transcript of DAILY REPORT · FX rates and money market FX rates on domestic market International markets...
Source:Bloomberg
Value Previous Change YTD Value Previous Change YTD
117.5845 117.5893 0.00% -0.52% 1.1854 1.1878 -0.20% 3.51%
98.9769 99.2985 -0.32% -4.27% 1.0774 1.0838 -0.59% -4.28%
109.0462 108.5072 0.50% 3.88% 0.8989 0.9022 -0.37% 3.47%
131.0718 129.9760 0.84% -0.08% 1.3188 1.3165 0.17% -3.47%Source: NBS 105.8500 105.7300 0.11% 0.05%
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Value Next decision Value
1.25% 10.9.2020 0.00%
Deposit facility 0.25% 0.25%
Lending facility 2.25% 0.10%
Repo operations (one week) 0.23% -0.75%
Source: NBS Source: Bloomberg
20.8.2020 19.8.2020 Change (bps) 20.8.2020 19.8.2020 Change(bps)
0.25% 0.25% 0.00 -0.468% -0.468% 0.000
0.71% 0.71% 0.00 -0.553% -0.553% 0.000
1.02% 1.02% 0.00 -0.523% -0.519% -0.004
1.22% 1.22% 0.00 -0.491% -0.488% -0.003
Source: Reuters -0.444% -0.442% -0.002
Note: Values are with 1 day delay Source: Bloomberg, EBF
Note: Values are with 1 day delay
Value Previous Change (bps) Value Previous Change(bps)
0.183% 0.171% 0.012 -0.414% -0.428% 0.014
0.256% 0.247% 0.009 -0.371% -0.389% 0.018
0.299% 0.305% -0.006 -0.187% -0.210% 0.023
-0.784% -0.789% 0.005 1.079% 1.297% -0.218
-0.716% -0.716% 0.000 1.093% 1.284% -0.191
-0.664% -0.658% -0.006 1.220% 1.379% -0.159
Sources: ICE, Bloomberg Sources: IBA, Bloomberg
Libor 3M (CHF) USD ISDA 5Y FIXING
Libor 6M (CHF) USD ISDA 10Y FIXING
Libor 3M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 5Y FIXING
Libor 6M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 10Y FIXING
Libor 1M (CHF) USD ISDA 3Y FIXING
BELIBOR 6M EURIBOR3M
Libor interest rates Interest rate Swap
Libor 1M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 3Y FIXING
BEONIA EONIA
BELIBOR1M
EURIBOR1MBELIBOR3M
EURIBOR6M
€STR
United Kingdom (BOE) 17.9.2020
Switzerland (SNB) 24.9.2020
Serbia - Interbank interest rates Serbia Europe - Interbank interest rates - Europe
Next decision
Key policy rate Eurozone (ECB) 10.9.2020
US (FED) 16.9.2020
GBP/RSD GBP/USD
USD/JPY
National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Major interest rates
EUR/RSD EUR/USD
USD/RSD EUR/CHF
CHF/RSD EUR/GBP
United States
FX rates and money market
FX rates on domestic market International markets
Currency Currency
Existing Homes Sales SAAR JUL 4.72 5.4
15:45Markit Manufacturing PMI
SAAUG P 50.9 52
Financial Market Analysis
Treausury and ALM department
DAILY REPORT
Flash
Dinar marginally changed against euro (117.5845).
Bank of the Group
August 21, 2020
Key events
Overall trading at the Belgrade Stock Exchange RSD 14.19 mln (EUR 120.68k). There was no bond trading.
Euro weakened against the dollar ($1.1854).
U.S. equities climbed, with tech powerhouses including Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. driving the Nasdaq 100 to a new closing record and easing investor concern
over the pace of economic recovery. S&P 500 rose by 0.3%, Dow Jones up 0.2%, Nasdaq up 1.1%.
European equities slid in a broad retreat on Thursday after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting and U.S. unemployment data stoked concern
about the recovery in the world’s largest economy. Euro Stoxx 50 lost 1.3%, FTSE 100 lower 1.6%, DAX lost 1.1%, CAC 40 down 1.3%.
Oil lower (WTI $42.58 i Brent $44.9).
Gold lower ($1944.24).
TimeCountry/
RegionEvent Period Previous Forecast
16:00 United States
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.1
1.12
1.14
1.16
1.18
1.2EUR/USD
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
117
118
119
120
121
122EUR mio EUR/RSD
Turnover on FX market (right axis)
Date Currency
25.8.2020 RSD
Source: Public Debt Management Agency
Moody's S&P Fitch
Ba3 BB+ BB+
Outlook Positive Positive Stable
Date 6.9.2019 13.12.2019 27.3.2020 Sources: Bloomberg, JPMorgan
Source: Bloomberg
Date Value Previous Date Value Previous
04.02.2016 2.75% 2.79% 21.05.2018 0.45% 0.47%
02.03.2017 2.64% 2.65% 28.04.2020 0.50% 0.49%
29.04.2020 1.79% 1.80% 23.10.2019 0.60% 1.15%
04.08.2020 1.95% 2.00% 18.03.2020 1.10% 1.48%
02.06.2020 2.15% 2.15% 11.06.2018 2.50%
21.07.2020 2.60% 2.60% 09.10.2019 1.89% 3.25%
05.11.2019 2.69% 3.40% 25.03.2020 1.89% 1.89%
07.08.2018 4.80% 4.85% 06.02.2019 3.60% 4.20%
18.08.2020 3.85% 3.85% 29.01.2020 3.00%
23.06.2016NBS key rate +
0.25%
NBS key rate +
0.25% Source: Public Debt Management Agency
Source: Public Debt Management Agency
Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source: Public debt Management Agency
Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa
Rate Previous UST spread Rate Previous
Serbia 10y 2021 sep 1.293% 1.333% 1.165% US 10y 2021 avg 0.128% 0.131%
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Rate Previous Bund spread Rate Previous
Serbia 7y 2027 may 1.966% 1.964% 2.644% Germany 7y 2027 feb -0.678% -0.661%
Serbia 10y 2029 jun 1.902% 1.903% 2.495% Germany 10y 2029 feb -0.593% -0.570%Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
7 years
10 years
24 month amortizing
Serbia Eurobonds (USD)
15 years
20 years12 years
12 years
US Treasury Bonds
Serbia Eurobonds (EUR) German Bunds
2 years 5 years
3 years 7 years
5 years 10 years
Maturity
3 months 53 weeks
6 months 2 years
53 weeks 3 years
Maturity
RSD Government securities EUR Government securities
Instrument Value
Serbia Credit rating
5y government bond 5,000,000,000
Fixed income
Scheduled auctions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350bps JP Morgan EMBI Srbija
1.52.53.54.55.56.57.58.59.5
10.511.512.513.514.5
Yields on RSD government securities primary auctions
3m 6m 53w 2y 3y NBS key rate 5y 7y 10y 12y
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.0
Yields on EUR government securities primary auctions
2y 3y 5y 7y 10y 12y 15y 20y
2
Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange
Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange
Sourc: Bloomberg
KMBN 2,450 9,224,250 1.24% 1.24% 0.52 4.91 11.13
MTLC 1,900 2,574,500 0.00% 0.05% 0.70 9.33 7.86
RMKS 2,250 1,158,750 -25.00% -25.00% 1.82 23.78 7.97
AERO 916 488,228 2.92% 3.97% 1.08 #N/A N/A -0.82
IMPL 3,700 444,000 0.00% 0.00% 0.51 10.10 #N/A N/A
Sources: Belgrade Stock Exchange; Bloombeg
0.14%
0.03%
0.31%
0.17%
-0.49%
Source: Bloomberg
crobex sbi20
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
sofix bet-c
Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
dj balkan
Source: Bloomberg
DJ Stoxx Balkan 50 Balkan 379.55 381.41 -24.77%
SOFIX Bugarska 435.81 434.46 -23.29%
BET Rumunija 8,702.02 8,687.24 -12.78%
Crobex Hrvatska 1,595.94 1,593.75 -20.89%
SBITOP Slovenija 861.98 861.69 -6.92%
Regional stock exchanges
Index Country/Region ValueValue from the previous
dayChange YTD
KOMERCIJALNA BANKA AD BEOGRA 41,203,992,200 Din.
METALAC AD GORNJI MILANOVAC 3,876,000,000 Din.
RIMEX AD BEOGRAD 300,795,750 Din.
AERODROM NIKOLA TESLA AD BEO 32,083,934,164 Din.
IMPOL SEVAL AD SEVOJNO 3,486,461,900 Din.
P/BV P/E ROE Market capitalization
The most traded stocks on Belgrade Stock Exchange from the previous day
Company Ticker Price RSDTurnover
RSD
Daily
change
Weekly
change
Ratios P / B P / EBelex15 0,61 8,22
Turnover 14,190,779 RSD 14,874,424 RSD -4.60%Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange
120,681 € 126,490 € -4.59%
Belex 15 680.10 670.04 1.50% -12.03%
Belex line 1,485.28 1,474.99 0.70% -7.20%
Belgrade Stock Exchange
Value Previous value Change YTD
1,350
1,450
1,550
1,650
1,750
1,850
1,950
2,050
2,150
CROBEX
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
SOFIX
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
BET
300
400
500
600DJ Stoxx Balkan 50
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850 Belex 15
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1.24%
2.92%
3.39%
ENHL TGAS MTLC FITO JESV ALFA KMBN AERO NIIS
Daily change of Belex 15 members
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800Belex line
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
SBITOP
3
Source: Bloomberg
dow jones s&p
Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
nasdaq dax
Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
nikkei dj stoxx
Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Snežana Topalović 201-1400 Snežana Spasojević 201-3621Vladimir Gavović 201-1263 Dragomir Milin 201-3622Nikolina Guteša 201-1401 Biljana Radosavljević 201-3610Djordje Brkuljan 201-1263 [email protected]
Darko Karanović 201-3624
Boban Todorović 201-3627Dragan Ignja 201-3626
ContactFinancial Market analysis Customer execution office (fixed income)
Dealing
Disclaimer
This overview is written to inform and does not represent a call for making business decisions and buying or selling mentioned financial instruments. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not guarantee exactness of summoned data.
Information, opinions and commentaries in this overview are given with the best intention according to available data provided from relevant sources and as a result of professional attitudes and orientations of analytical team working in
Banca Intesa ad Beograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not assume responsibility for possible loss and damage caused by business activities according to any element and contents of the overview. This document may only be
reproduced in whole or in part together with the name of Banca Intesa Beograd.
Nikkei 225 Japan 22,880.62 23,110.61 -1.00% -3.28%
Dow Jones Stoxx 600 EU 365.64 369.58 -1.07% -12.14%
FTSE UK 6,013.34 6,111.98 -1.61% -20.74%
DAX Germany 12,830.00 12,977.33 -1.14% -3.16%
NASDAQ US 11,264.95 11,146.46 1.06% 25.92%
S&P 500 US 3,385.51 3,374.85 0.32% 5.10%
Dow Jones Industrial US 27,739.73 27,692.88 0.17% -2.54%
Index Country/Region Value Previous value Change YTD
World stock exchanges
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
26,000
27,000
28,000
29,000
30,000
31,000Dow Jones Industrial
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
3,200
3,300
3,400
3,500
S&P 500
5,800
6,800
7,800
8,800
9,800
10,800
11,800NASDAQ Composite
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
430
450DJ Stoxx 600
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
Nikkei 225
\
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000DAX
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80Oil Brent (USD/bbl)
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300Gold
\
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50 Vix Index
4