Daily mobility trends of Finnish people since 1986 and user segmentation according to daily mobility...

Daily mobility trends of Finnish people since 1986 and user segmentation according to daily mobility based on NTS 1998-99.

Tuuli Järvi

VTT Technical Reasearch Centre of Finland

27.4.2006 Tuuli Järvi VTT 2

NTS in Finland 1986 - 2004

Survey NTS -86 NTS -92 NTS 1998-99 NTS 2004-05

Method mail mail preinformed CATI

preinformed CATI

Trips in Finland Finland Finland and abroad

Finland and abroad

Age groups 13-64 years 18-70 years over 6 years over 6 years

Time period 1 y / every 2nd month

1 y / every 2nd month

1 y, evenly ongoing

1 y, evenly ongoing

Return/Answering rate 60 % 41 % 64 % 67 %

Persons accepted 10 000 7 000 11 000 13 000



Main characteristics of the analysis

Restrictions• Mostly only the common age group of 18-64 years

was analysed• Only weekday trips in Finland

Analysis method• The so called 'Three storey model' was used (division

of people into 3 groups: no trips, max 3 h and over 3 h of travelling)

• People were divided according to car availability (3 groups: car always, occasionally or never at person's own disposal)

• Gender (male and female)



Persons in the survey by household's car ownership

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

1992 1998-99 2004-05

2+

2

1

0

Cars



Share of people of 18-64 years having a driving licence

0

20

40

60

80

100

Male 18-64years

Female 18-64years

All 18-64years

%

1986

1992

1998

2004



Persons in the survey by mobility and share of mileage

0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

NTS-86 NTS-92 NTS-98 NTS-04

over 3 h

max 3 h

no trips

0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

NTS-86 NTS-92 NTS-98

over 3 h

max 3 h

no trips

Persons in the survey by mobility Share of mileage by mobility



People of 18 - 64 years by car availability

A = Always O = Occasionally N = Never

0

10

20

30

40

ACar, Male ACar, Female OCar, Male OCar, Female NCar, Male NCar, Female

%

NTS-86

NTS-92

NTS-98



Share of people of 18-64 years not travelled on a weekday

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

NTS-86 NTS-92 NTS-98 NTS-04

%

Male Female



Share of people of 18-64 years not travelled on a weekday by car availability

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

ACar, Male ACar, Female OCar, Male OCar, Female NCar, Male NCar, Female All 18-64 y.

%

NTS-86

NTS-92

NTS-98

NTS-04

A = Always O = Occasionally N = Never



Daily mileage travelled

Persons travelling more than 3 h travel in the average 230 km and nearly 5 h. Half of them are male persons with car always at their own disposal. Other five person groups make the other half.

Average travel time is 70 min (64 - 72 min)

05

1015

2025

3035

4045

50

ACar,Male

ACar,Female

OCar,Male

OCar,Female

NCar,Male

NCar,Female

All 18-64y.

km

1986

1992

1998

Persons travelling max 3 h



Average daily travelPopulation over 6 years

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

1998-1999 2004-2005

km/min

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

trips

total travel time(min/person/day)

mileage(km/person/day)

number oftrips/person/day



Modal share by trip length NTS 2004-05

Other mode

Public Transport

Car Passenger

Car Driver

Biking

Walking

Cumulative share of trips20 44 58 74 86 95 100 %

0-1 1-3 3-5 5-10 10-20 20-50 l l l l All50-100 - l l l ------ over 200

l l - ------ 150-200l - - ------ 100-150

Trip lenght [km]

100 %

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %



Segmentation of population according to similar daily mobility for mobility foresights

Requirements• homogenous segments• as few segments as possible• segment size must be predictable

Segment categorisation• household car ownership (yes, no)

• age (3 groups: 6-17, 18-64, 65+ years)

• activity (2 groups: working/student, other activity + age group 6-17)

• type of recidential area (big city, other city, rural area)• (not gender)



Map of Finland

• Big Cities:Helsinki MA (Helsinki, Espoo, Vantaa, Kauniainen), Tampere, Turku, Oulu

• Other Cities: 114, pop. 1 500 - 100 000

• Other Municipalities:317, pop. 130 - 38 000



Persons in the survey by household's car ownership, family size and recidential location

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

family single family single family single

PKS,Tre,Tku,Oulu other cities rural areas

Persons

Car No Car



Daily travelling of persons with and without a car in the household

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

trips tot.time [10 min] tot. distance [10km]

speed [10 km/h]


0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

trips tot.time [10 min] tot. distance [10km]

speed [10 km/h]


With Car

No Car



Final person segments

Person segment Persons

1 CAR, whole country, 6-17 y.(15,1%) 720 796

2 CAR, big cities, working/student 18-64 y.(13,4%) 636 218

3 CAR, other cities, working/student 18-64 y. (16,1%) 768 311

4 CAR, rural areas, working/student 18-64 y.(17,0%) 808 068

5 CAR, all cities, other activity 18-64 y. or 65+ y. (11,4%) 544 474

6 CAR, rural areas, other activity 18-64 y. or 65+ y. (8,3%) 394 329

7 NO CAR, whole country, 6-17 y.(1,2%) 56 955

8 NO CAR, big cities, working/student 18-64 y.(4,2%) 201 883

9 NO CAR, other cities and rural areas, working/student 18-64 y.(3,3%) 157 376

10 NO CAR, big cities, other activity 18-64 y. or 65+ y.(3,1%) 149 020

11 NO CAR, other cities and rural areas, other activity 18-64 y. or 65+ y.(6,8%) 325 990

4 763 850



Daily mobility of the final person segments

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

CAR,

who

leco

untry

, 6-1

7y.

(15,

1%)

CAR,

big

citie

s,wo

rkin

g/st

uden

t18

-64

CAR,

oth

ercit

ies,

work

ing/

stud

ent

CAR,

rura

lar

eas,

work

ing/

stud

ent

CAR,

all c

ities,

othe

r act

ivity

18-6

4 y.

or

65+

CAR,

rura

lar

eas,

oth

erac

tivity

18-

64 y

.NO

CAR

,wh

ole

coun

try,

6-17

y.(1

,2%

)NO

CAR

, big

citie

s,wo

rkin

g/st

uden

tNO

CAR

, oth

ercit

ies

and

rura

lar

eas,

NO C

AR, b

igcit

ies,

oth

erac

tivity

18-

64 y

.NO

CAR

, oth

ercit

ies

and

rura

lar

eas,

oth

er

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

trips pop. share 6+ y.

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

CAR,

who

leco

untry

, 6-1

7y.

(15,

1%)

CAR,

big

citie

s,wo

rkin

g/st

uden

t18

-64

CAR,

oth

ercit

ies,

work

ing/

stud

ent

CAR,

rura

lar

eas,

work

ing/

stud

ent

CAR,

all c

ities,

othe

r act

ivity

18-6

4 y.

or

65+

CAR,

rura

lar

eas,

oth

erac

tivity

18-

64 y

.NO

CAR

,wh

ole

coun

try,

6-17

y.(1

,2%

)NO

CAR

, big

citie

s,wo

rkin

g/st

uden

tNO

CAR

, oth

ercit

ies

and

rura

lar

eas,

NO C

AR, b

igcit

ies,

oth

erac

tivity

18-

64 y

.NO

CAR

, oth

ercit

ies

and

rura

lar

eas,

oth

er

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

tot.time [min] pop. share 6+ y.

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

CAR,

who

leco

untry

, 6-1

7

y.(1

5,1%

)CA

R, b

ig c

ities,

work

ing/

stud

ent

18-6

4CA

R, o

ther

citie

s,wo

rkin

g/st

uden

tCA

R, ru

ral

area

s,wo

rkin

g/st

uden

tCA

R, a

ll citie

s,ot

her a

ctivi

ty18

-64

y. o

r 65

+CA

R, ru

ral

area

s, o

ther

activ

ity 1

8-64

y.

NO C

AR,

whol

e co

untry

,6-

17 y

.(1,2

%)

NO C

AR, b

igcit

ies,

work

ing/

stud

ent

NO C

AR, o

ther

citie

s an

d ru

ral

area

s,NO

CAR

, big

citie

s, o

ther

activ

ity 1

8-64

y.

NO C

AR, o

ther

citie

s an

d ru

ral

area

s, o

ther

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

tot.distance [km] pop. share 6+ y.

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

CAR,

who

leco

untry

, 6-1

7y.

(15,

1%)

CAR,

big

citie

s,wo

rkin

g/st

uden

t18

-64

CAR,

oth

ercit

ies,

work

ing/

stud

ent

CAR,

rura

lar

eas,

work

ing/

stud

ent

CAR,

all c

ities,

othe

r act

ivity

18-6

4 y.

or

65+

CAR,

rura

lar

eas,

oth

erac

tivity

18-

64 y

.NO

CAR

,wh

ole

coun

try,

6-17

y.(1

,2%

)NO

CAR

, big

citie

s,wo

rkin

g/st

uden

tNO

CAR

, oth

ercit

ies

and

rura

lar

eas,

NO C

AR, b

igcit

ies,

oth

erac

tivity

18-

64 y

.NO

CAR

, oth

ercit

ies

and

rura

lar

eas,

oth

er

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

speed [km/h] pop. share 6+ y.

Trips Tot.time [min]

Tot.distance [km] Speed [km/h]



Modal share by person segment

0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 %

NO CAR, other cities and rural areas, other activity 18-64 y. or 65+ y.(6,8% )

NO CAR, big cities, other activity 18-64 y. or 65+ y.(3,1% )

NO CAR, other cities and rural areas, working/student 18-64 y.(3,3% )

NO CAR, big cities, working/student 18-64 y.(4,2% )

NO CAR, whole country, 6-17 y.(1,2% )

CAR, rural areas, other activity 18-64 y. or 65+ y. (8,3% )

CAR, all cities, other activity 18-64 y. or 65+ y. (11,4% )

CAR, rural areas, working/student 18-64 y.(17,0% )

CAR, other cities, working/student 18-64 y. (16,1% )

CAR, big cities, working/student 18-64 y.(13,4% )

CAR, whole country, 6-17 y.(15,1% )

walking bicycle bus train, metro, tram car air other



Mobility trend according to NTS 1974-2004

Mobility trend according to NTS 1974-2004

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004

km or km/h

2

3

4

5trips/day

Mileage (13-64 y.) week Speed (13-64 y.) week Mileage (18-64 y.) weekday

Speed (18-64 y.) weekday Corr. mileage (18-64 y.) weekday Corr. speed (18-64 y.) weekday

Trips per day

trips

speed

mileage

corr.speed

corr. mileagecorr.distance



Population forecast 2005-2020

0200 000

400 000600 000

800 0001 000 000

1 200 0001 400 000

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

0-17 years over 65 years

persons

Female

Male

0500 000

1 000 0001 500 0002 000 0002 500 0003 000 0003 500 000

2005 2010 2015 2020

18-64 years

persons

Female

Male

Daily mobility trends of Finnish people since 1986 and user segmentation according to daily mobility...

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