DAILY I FOREX REPORT 5

th

FEBRUARY 2013

WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966

WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966

Is The Japanese Yen Selloff Finally Near A Breaking Point?

Dollar At Key Resistance, S&P 500 Rally May Lose Steam

Euro-Zone Producer Prices Continue to Decline

Political Allegations in Italy and Spain Send Euro Below 1.3600

In only six months, Forex traders have heard

sentimental chatter about the Euro-zone flip from talks

of an imminent Euro breakup to predictions of a Euro-

zone recovery by the end of the year. That sharp turn

in sentiment was accompanied by a 1500 point rally in

Euro trading against the US Dollar. However, the speed

of the change in sentiment has left skeptics waiting for

a story to reinforce their doubts over the recovery.

TRADING TIPS

SELL EURUSD

BELLOW 1.3540 tgs

1.3526/1.3512 sl

1.3565

BUY USDJPY ABOW

93.20 tgt

93.36/93.52 SL 92.05

SELL GBPUSD BELOW

1.5674 tgt

1.5660/1.5646 SL

1.5700

HEADLINES

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.3645

HIGH: 1.3649

LOW: 1.3656

CLOSE: 1.3563

EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

REVERSAL

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>. -0009(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 35(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 92.76

HIGH: 93.18

LOW: 92.49

CLOSE: 92.83

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD => 0002( BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>58(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.5701

HIGH: 1.5740

LOW: 1.5693

CLOSE: 1.5729

GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD => -.0005( BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 45(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 0.8690

HIGH: 0.8693

LOW: 0.8622

CLOSE: 0.8623

EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD =>.0022(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>52(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ECONOMIC CALENDER

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 79.2030

HIGH: 79.5060

LOW: 79.1790

CLOSE: 79.4540

USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>0.0125(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>68(BULLISH SIGNAL)

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Sun

Feb 3 01:00

CNY Non-manufacturing PMI (JAN)

Medium 56.2

56.1

23:30

AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (JAN)

Medium 2.5%

2.4%

23:30

AUD TD Securities

Inflation (MoM) (JAN) Low 0.3%

0.4%

23:50

JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (JAN)

Low 10.9%

11.8%

Mon Feb 4

GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (JAN)

Low

1.6% -0.3%

GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0% 1.3%

00:00

NZD ANZ Commodity Price (JAN)

Low 0.3%

1.0%

00:01

GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (JAN)

Low 15

20

00:30

AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (JAN)

Low -0.9%

-2.80%

00:30

AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (DEC)

Low -4.4% 1.0% 3.4%

00:30

AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (DEC)

Low 9.3% 14.9% 14.1%

07:00

CHF UBS Real Estate Bubble Index (4Q)

Low 1.11

1.02

09:30

EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence

(FEB)

Medium -3.9 -1.7 -7

09:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (JAN)

Medium 48.7 49.2 48.7

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (DEC)

High 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (DEC)

Medium -0.2% -0.2% -0.2%

14:45

EUR German Chancellor Merkel and Spanish PM Rajoy Hold Press Conference

Medium

15:00

USD Factory Orders (DEC)

Medium

2.3% 0.0%

21:45

NZD Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (4Q)

Medium

0.4% 1.4%

21:45

NZD Labor Cost Private Sector (QoQ)

(4Q)

Low

0.5% 0.5%

21:45

NZD Private Wages ex Overtime (QoQ) (4Q)

Low

0.5% 0.5%

22:30

AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (JAN)

Medium

43.2

Tue

Feb 5 00:01

GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like YoY (JAN)

Low

0.3%

00:30

AUD House Price Index (QoQ) (4Q)

Medium

0.3% 0.3%

00:30

AUD House Price Index (YoY) (4Q)

Medium

0.9% 0.3%

00:30

AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (DEC)

Medium

-800M -2637M

01:45

CNY HSBC Services PMI (JAN)

Medium

51.7

03:30

AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (FEB 5)

High

3.00% 3.00%

07:00

CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (DEC)

Medium

2.00B 2.90B

07:00

CHF Exports (MoM) (DEC)

Low

6.0%

07:00

CHF Imports (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.2%

08:45

EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (JAN)

Medium

45.8 45.6

08:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (JAN F)

Medium

43.6 43.6

09:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (JAN)

Medium

49.5 48.9

09:30

GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (JAN)

Low

-$350M

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (DEC)

High

-1.4% -2.6%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (DEC)

Medium

-0.5% 0.1%

15:00

USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (JAN)

Medium

55.0 55.7

15:00

USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (FEB)

Low

46.5 46.5

Wed

Feb 6

GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (JAN)

Low

3.7%

00:01

GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

Low

1.5%

00:30

AUD Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ) (4Q)

Medium

0.3% -0.1%

00:30

AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

Medium

0.3% -0.1%

01:30

JPY BOJ Board Member Sato Speech

Low

11:00

EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC)

Medium

-1.2% -1.0%

11:00

EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.7% -1.8%

12:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (FEB 1)

Low

-8.1%

15:00

CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA (JAN)

Medium

53.8 52.8

15:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (FEB 1)

Low

284K

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (FEB 1)

Low

5947K

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (FEB 1)

Low

-2315K

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (FEB 1)

Low

-956K

21:45

NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (4Q)

Medium

-0.4%

21:45

NZD Employment

Change (YoY) (4Q) Medium

0.0%

21:45

NZD Unemployment Rate (4Q)

Medium

7.3%

21:45

NZD Participation Rate (QoQ) (4Q)

Low

68.4%

22:30

AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (JAN)

Medium

38.8

23:50

JPY Machine Orders (MoM) (DEC)

Medium

-0.9% 3.9%

23:50

JPY Machine Orders

(YoY) (DEC) Medium

-4.0% 0.3%

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (FEB 1)

Low

-¥228.8B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (FEB 1)

Low

¥248.6B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (FEB 1)

Low

¥663.1B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (FEB 1)

Low

-¥254.1B

23:50

JPY Official Reserve

Assets (JAN) Low

$1268.1B

Thu

Feb 7

EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.0%

EUR German Wholesale Price Index

(YoY) (JAN)

Low

3.2%

00:30

AUD Employment Change (JAN)

High

6.0K -5.5K

00:30

AUD Unemployment Rate (JAN)

High

5.5% 5.4%

00:30

AUD Full Time Employment Change (JAN)

Medium

-13.8K

00:30

AUD NAB Business Confidence (4Q)

Medium

-2

00:30

AUD Part Time Employment Change

(JAN)

Medium

8.3K

00:30

AUD Participation Rate (JAN)

Low

65.1% 65.1%

05:00

JPY Leading Index (DEC P)

Medium

93.6 92.1

05:00

JPY Coincident Index (DEC P)

Low

92.6 90.2

05:30

AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (JAN)

Low

A$47.3B

06:45

CHF SECO Consumer Confidence (JAN)

Medium

-12 -17

07:45

EUR French Trade Balance (euros) (DEC)

Low

-4200M -4334M

08:00

CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (JAN)

Low

428.5B 427.2B

09:30

GBP Industrial

Production (YoY) (DEC)

Medium

-2.2% -2.4%

09:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (DEC)

Medium

-2.6% -2.1%

09:30

GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds)

(DEC)

Medium

-£9000 -£9164

09:30

GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.7% 0.3%

09:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.6% -0.3%

09:30

GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (DEC)

Low

-£3300 -£3466

09:30

GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (DEC)

Low

-£4300 -£4519

10:00

EUR European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts (Table)

Medium

11:00

EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and

w.d.a. (YoY) (DEC)

Medium

-0.5% -2.9%

11:00

EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.2% 0.2%

12:00

GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (FEB)

High

375B 375B

12:00

GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (FEB 7)

High

0.5% 0.50%

12:45

EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (FEB 7)

High

0.75% 0.75%

12:45

EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (FEB 7)

Low

0.0% 0.00%

13:30

CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (DEC)

Medium

2.2%

13:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 3)

Medium

360K 368K

13:30

CAD Building Permits (MoM) (DEC)

Low

-17.9%

13:30

CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.1% 0.1%

13:30

USD Continuing Claims (JAN 27)

Low

3187K 3197K

13:30

USD Non-Farm Productivity (4Q P)

Low

-1.0% 2.9%

13:30

USD Unit Labor Costs (4Q P)

Low

3.0% -1.9%

15:00

GBP NIESR Gross

Domestic Product Estimate (JAN)

Medium

-0.3%

15:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (FEB 1)

Low

-194

20:00

USD Consumer Credit

(DEC) Medium

$14.500B $16.045B

23:50

JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (DEC)

Medium

-¥560.3B -¥847.5B

23:50

JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (DEC)

Low

¥235.8B ¥225.9B

23:50

JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (JAN)

Low

1.4%

23:50

JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (JAN)

Low

1.2%

23:50

JPY Current Account Balance (YoY) (DEC)

Low

-154.3% -276.4%

23:50

JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (DEC)

Low

-¥141.1B -¥222.4B

23:50

JPY Housing Loans (YoY) (4Q)

Low

3.0%

Fri

Feb 8

CNY Exports (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

17.1% 14.1%

CNY Imports (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

23.5% 6.0%

CNY Trade Balance (USD) (JAN)

Medium

$24.20B $31.62B

04:30

JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-13.8%

05:00

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (JAN)

Medium

48 45.8

05:00

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (JAN)

Medium

51

05:30

CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

High

2.1% 2.5%

05:30

CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-1.6% -1.9%

06:45

CHF Unemployment Rate (JAN)

Medium

3.4% 3.3%

06:45

CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (JAN)

Medium

3.1% 3.0%

07:00

EUR German Trade

Balance (euros) (DEC) Medium

15.0B 17.0B

07:00

EUR German Current Account (euros) (DEC)

Low

17.0B 15.3B

07:00

EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

Low

1.4% -3.4%

07:00

EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

Low

1.6% -3.7%

07:30

EUR Bank of France Business Sentiment (JAN)

Medium

95

07:45

EUR French Central Government Balance

(euros) (DEC)

Low

-103.4B

08:15

CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (DEC)

Medium

2.9%

09:00

EUR Italian Industrial Production n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC)

Low

-7.6%

09:00

EUR Italian Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.2% -1.0%

09:00

EUR Italian Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (DEC)

Low

-7.6%

13:15

CAD Housing Starts

(JAN) Medium

195.0K 198.0K

13:30

CAD Net Change in Employment (JAN)

High

4.0K 39.8K

13:30

CAD Unemployment Rate (JAN)

High

7.2% 7.1%

13:30

CAD Full Time Employment Change (JAN)

Medium

41.2

13:30

CAD Part Time Employment Change (JAN)

Medium

-1.4

13:30

CAD Participation Rate (JAN)

Medium

66.8

13:30

USD Trade Balance (DEC)

Medium

-$46.0B -$48.7B

13:30

CAD International Merchandise Trade

(Canadian dollar) (DEC)

Low

-1.50B -1.96B

15:00

USD Wholesale Inventories (DEC)

Low

0.4% 0.6%

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