Daily i Forex Report by Epic Research 07-02-2013

7/29/2019 Daily i Forex Report by Epic Research 07-02-2013

1/15

7th

FEBRUARY 2013

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2/15

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EUR/USD Retakes 1.3500 on Risk

Hold, BoJ Leverages USD/JPY

All the technical and market condition elements were

lining up for a serious reversal in EURUSD, the yen

crosses and other risk-sensitive pairings. However, we

couldn't secure the fundamental spark to complete the

underlying trend shift: an actual risk aversion drive.

Once again, the holdout to an otherwise broad shift in

sentiment was the imperfect (and stimulus-laden) US

equity indexes. Both the S&P 500 and Dow heldconspicuous support levels which allowed for news of

an ECB balance sheet reduction and BoJ Governor

Shirakawa's accelerated retirement to bolster the

heaviest pairs. These catalysts, however, are

temporary. Unless individual events continue to print

risk-supportive results, the specter of risk aversion will

TRADING TIPS

SELL EURUSD

BELLOW 1.3510 tgs

1.3494/1.3478 sl

1.3530

BUY USDJPY ABOW

94.06 tgt

94.20/94.34 SL 93.86

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE

1.5678 tgt

1.5698/1.5718 SL

1.5658

HEADLINES


3/15

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.3583

HIGH: 1.3596

LOW: 1.3513

CLOSE: 1.3532

EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND : BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD =>. -0009(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 50(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURUSD CHART


4/15

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 93.58

HIGH: 94.06

LOW: 93.46

CLOSE: 93.67

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD => 0002( BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>58(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART


5/15

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.5664

HIGH: 1.5678

LOW: 1.5631

CLOSE: 1.5669

GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEP

MACD => .0005( BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 57(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART


6/15

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 0.8671

HIGH: 0.8681

LOW: 0.8631

CLOSE: 0.8637

EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS

TREND: BULLISH


MACD =>.007(BULLISH SIGNAL)


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HOURLY EURGBP CHART


7/15

HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ECONOMIC CALENDER

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 79.5330

HIGH: 79.8120

LOW: 79.4920

CLOSE: 79.7260

USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH


MACD =>0.0125(BULLISH SIGNAL)



8/15

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous N

Sun

Feb 301:00

CNY Non-manufacturing PMI(JAN)

Medium 56.2 56.1

23:30AUD TD SecuritiesInflation (YoY) (JAN)

Medium 2.5% 2.4%

23:30AUD TD SecuritiesInflation (MoM) (JAN)

Low 0.3% 0.4%

23:50JPY Monetary Base(YoY) (JAN) Low 10.9% 11.8%

Mon

Feb 4

GBP Halifax HousePrice (3MoY) (JAN)

Low 1.6% -0.3%

GBP Halifax Plc HousePrices s.a. (MoM)(JAN)

Low 0% 1.3%

00:00NZD ANZ CommodityPrice (JAN)

Low 0.3% 1.0%

00:01GBP Lloyds BusinessBarometer (JAN)

Low 15 20

00:30AUD ANZ JobAdvertisements (MoM)(JAN)

Low -0.9% -2.80%

00:30AUD BuildingApprovals (MoM)(DEC)

Low -4.4% 1.0% 3.4%

00:30AUD BuildingApprovals (YoY) (DEC)

Low 9.3% 14.9% 14.1%

07:00CHF UBS Real EstateBubble Index (4Q)

Low 1.11 1.02

09:30EUR Euro-Zone SentixInvestor Confidence

(FEB)

Medium -3.9 -1.7 -7

09:30GBP PurchasingManager IndexConstruction (JAN)

Medium 48.7 49.2 48.7

10:00EUR Euro-ZoneProducer Price Index(YoY) (DEC)

High 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%

10:00EUR Euro-ZoneProducer Price Index(MoM) (DEC)

Medium -0.2% -0.2% -0.2%

14:45

EUR GermanChancellor Merkel andSpanish PM Rajoy HoldPress Conference

Medium

15:00USD Factory Orders(DEC)

Medium 2.3% 0.0%

21:45NZD Average HourlyEarnings (QoQ) (4Q)

Medium 0.4% 1.4%

21:45NZD Labor CostPrivate Sector (QoQ)(4Q)

Low 0.5% 0.5%

21:45NZD Private Wages exOvertime (QoQ) (4Q)

Low 0.5% 0.5%


9/15

22:30

AUD AiG Performanceof Service Index (JAN)

Medium 43.2

Tue

Feb 500:01

GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like YoY (JAN)

Low 0.3%

00:30AUD House Price Index(QoQ) (4Q)

Medium 0.3% 0.3%

00:30AUD House Price Index(YoY) (4Q)

Medium 0.9% 0.3%

00:30 AUD Trade Balance(Australian dollar)(DEC)

Medium -800M -2637M

01:45CNY HSBC ServicesPMI (JAN)

Medium 51.7

03:30AUD Reserve Bank ofAustralia Rate Decision(FEB 5)

High 3.00% 3.00%

07:00CHF Trade Balance(Swiss franc) (DEC)

Medium 2.00B 2.90B

07:00CHF Exports (MoM)(DEC)

Low 6.0%

07:00CHF Imports (MoM)(DEC)

Low 0.2%

08:45EUR Italian PurchasingManager IndexServices (JAN)

Medium 45.8 45.6

08:50EUR FrenchPurchasing ManagerIndex Services (JAN F)

Medium 43.6 43.6

09:30GBP PurchasingManager IndexServices (JAN)

Medium 49.5 48.9

09:30 GBP Official Reserves(Changes) (JAN)

Low -$350M

10:00EUR Euro-Zone RetailSales (YoY) (DEC)

High -1.4% -2.6%

10:00EUR Euro-Zone RetailSales (MoM) (DEC)

Medium -0.5% 0.1%

15:00USD ISM Non-ManufacutringComposite (JAN)

Medium 55.0 55.7

15:00USD IBD/TIPPEconomic Optimism(FEB)

Low 46.5 46.5

Wed

Feb 6

GBP New CarRegistrations (YoY)(JAN)

Low 3.7%

00:01GBP BRC Shop PriceIndex (YoY) (JAN)

Low 1.5%

00:30AUD Retail Sales ExInflation(QoQ) (4Q)

Medium 0.3% -0.1%

00:30AUD Retail Sales s.a.(MoM) (DEC)

Medium 0.3% -0.1%


10/15

01:30

JPY BOJ BoardMember Sato Speech

Low

11:00EUR German FactoryOrders n.s.a. (YoY)(DEC)

Medium -1.2% -1.0%

11:00EUR German FactoryOrders s.a. (MoM)(DEC)

Low 0.7% -1.8%

12:00USD MBA MortgageApplications (FEB 1)

Low -8.1%

15:00CAD Ivey PurchasingManagers Index SA(JAN)

Medium 53.8 52.8

15:30USD DOE Cushing OKCrude Inventory (FEB1)

Low 284K

15:30USD DOE U.S. CrudeOil Inventories (FEB 1)

Low 5947K

15:30USD DOE U.S.Distillate Inventory(FEB 1)

Low -2315K

15:30USD DOE U.S.Gasoline Inventories(FEB 1)

Low -956K

21:45NZD EmploymentChange (QoQ) (4Q)

Medium -0.4%

21:45NZD EmploymentChange (YoY) (4Q)

Medium 0.0%

21:45NZD UnemploymentRate (4Q)

Medium 7.3%

21:45NZD Participation Rate(QoQ) (4Q)

Low 68.4%

22:30AUD AiG Performanceof Construction Index(JAN)

Medium 38.8

23:50JPY Machine Orders(MoM) (DEC)

Medium -0.9% 3.9%

23:50JPY Machine Orders(YoY) (DEC)

Medium -4.0% 0.3%

23:50JPY Foreign BuyingJapan Bonds (Yen)(FEB 1)

Low -228.8B

23:50JPY Foreign BuyingJapan Stocks (Yen)(FEB 1)

Low 248.6B

23:50JPY Japan BuyingForeign Bonds (Yen)(FEB 1)

Low 663.1B

23:50JPY Japan BuyingForeign Stocks (Yen)(FEB 1)

Low -254.1B

23:50JPY Official ReserveAssets (JAN)

Low $1268.1B

Thu

Feb 7

EUR GermanWholesale Price Index(MoM) (JAN)

Low 0.0%


11/15

EUR GermanWholesale Price Index(YoY) (JAN)

Low 3.2%

00:30AUD EmploymentChange (JAN)

High 6.0K -5.5K

00:30AUD UnemploymentRate (JAN)

High 5.5% 5.4%

00:30AUD Full TimeEmployment Change(JAN)

Medium -13.8K

00:30AUD NAB BusinessConfidence (4Q)

Medium -2

00:30AUD Part TimeEmployment Change(JAN)

Medium 8.3K

00:30AUD Participation Rate(JAN)

Low 65.1% 65.1%

05:00JPY Leading Index(DEC P)

Medium 93.6 92.1

05:00JPY Coincident Index

(DEC P)

Low 92.6 90.2

05:30AUD Foreign Reserves(Australian dollar)(JAN)

Low A$47.3B

06:45CHF SECO ConsumerConfidence (JAN)

Medium -12 -17

07:45EUR French TradeBalance (euros) (DEC)

Low -4200M -4334M

08:00CHF Foreign CurrencyReserves (JAN)

Low 428.5B 427.2B

09:30

GBP Industrial

Production (YoY)(DEC)

Medium -2.2% -2.4%

09:30GBP ManufacturingProduction (YoY)(DEC)

Medium -2.6% -2.1%

09:30GBP Visible TradeBalance (Pounds)(DEC)

Medium -9000 -9164

09:30GBP IndustrialProduction (MoM)(DEC)

Low 0.7% 0.3%

09:30GBP ManufacturingProduction (MoM)(DEC)

Low 0.6% -0.3%

09:30GBP Total TradeBalance (Pounds)(DEC)

Low -3300 -3466

09:30GBP Trade BalanceNon EU (Pounds)(DEC)

Low -4300 -4519

10:00

EUR EuropeanCommission ReleasesEconomic GrowthForecasts (Table)

Medium


12/15

11:00

EUR German IndustrialProduction n.s.a. andw.d.a. (YoY) (DEC)

Medium -0.5% -2.9%

11:00EUR German IndustrialProduction s.a. (MoM)(DEC)

Low 0.2% 0.2%

12:00GBP BOE AssetPurchase Target (FEB)

High 375B 375B

12:00GBP Bank of EnglandRate Decision (FEB 7)

High 0.5% 0.50%

12:45EUR European CentralBank Rate Decision(FEB 7)

High 0.75% 0.75%

12:45EUR ECB DepositFacility Rate (FEB 7)

Low 0.0% 0.00%

13:30CAD New HousingPrice Index (YoY)(DEC)

Medium 2.2%

13:30USD Initial JoblessClaims (FEB 3)

Medium 360K 368K

13:30

CAD Building Permits

(MoM) (DEC) Low -17.9%

13:30CAD New HousingPrice Index (MoM)(DEC)

Low 0.1% 0.1%

13:30USD Continuing Claims(JAN 27)

Low 3187K 3197K

13:30USD Non-FarmProductivity (4Q P)

Low -1.0% 2.9%

13:30USD Unit Labor Costs(4Q P)

Low 3.0% -1.9%

15:00GBP NIESR GrossDomestic ProductEstimate (JAN)

Medium -0.3%

15:30USD EIA Natural GasStorage Change (FEB1)

Low -194

20:00USD Consumer Credit(DEC)

Medium $14.500B $16.045B

23:50JPY Trade Balance -BOP Basis (Yen)(DEC)

Medium -560.3B -847.5B

23:50JPY Adjusted CurrentAccount Total (Yen)(DEC)

Low 235.8B 225.9B

23:50JPY Bank LendingBanks ex-Trust (JAN)

Low 1.4%

23:50JPY Bank Lending inclTrusts (YoY) (JAN)

Low 1.2%

23:50JPY Current AccountBalance (YoY) (DEC)

Low -154.3% -276.4%

23:50JPY Current AccountTotal (Yen) (DEC)

Low -141.1B -222.4B


13/15

23:50

JPY Housing Loans(YoY) (4Q)

Low 3.0%

Fri

Feb 8

CNY Exports (YoY)(JAN)

Medium 17.1% 14.1%

CNY Imports (YoY)(JAN)

Medium 23.5% 6.0%

CNY Trade Balance(USD) (JAN)

Medium $24.20B $31.62B

04:30 JPY Bankruptcies(YoY) (JAN)

Medium -13.8%

05:00JPY Eco WatchersSurvey: Current (JAN)

Medium 48 45.8

05:00JPY Eco WatchersSurvey: Outlook (JAN)

Medium 51

05:30CNY Consumer PriceIndex (YoY) (JAN)

High 2.1% 2.5%

05:30CNY Producer PriceIndex (YoY) (JAN)

Medium -1.6% -1.9%

06:45CHF UnemploymentRate (JAN)

Medium 3.4% 3.3%

06:45CHF UnemploymentRate s.a. (JAN)

Medium 3.1% 3.0%

07:00EUR German TradeBalance (euros) (DEC)

Medium 15.0B 17.0B

07:00EUR German CurrentAccount (euros) (DEC)

Low 17.0B 15.3B

07:00EUR German Exportss.a. (MoM) (DEC)

Low 1.4% -3.4%

07:00EUR German Importss.a. (MoM) (DEC)

Low 1.6% -3.7%

07:30EUR Bank of FranceBusiness Sentiment(JAN)

Medium 95

07:45EUR French CentralGovernment Balance(euros) (DEC)

Low -103.4B

08:15CHF Retail Sales(Real) (YoY) (DEC)

Medium 2.9%

09:00

EUR Italian Industrial

Production n.s.a. (YoY)(DEC)Low

-7.6%

09:00EUR Italian IndustrialProduction s.a. (MoM)(DEC)

Low 0.2% -1.0%

09:00EUR Italian IndustrialProduction w.d.a. (YoY)(DEC)

Low -7.6%

13:15CAD Housing Starts(JAN)

Medium 195.0K 198.0K

13:30CAD Net Change inEmployment (JAN)

High 4.0K 39.8K


14/15

13:30

CAD UnemploymentRate (JAN)

High 7.2% 7.1%

13:30CAD Full TimeEmployment Change(JAN)

Medium 41.2

13:30CAD Part TimeEmployment Change(JAN)

Medium -1.4

13:30CAD Participation Rate(JAN)

Medium 66.8

13:30USD Trade Balance(DEC)

Medium -$46.0B -$48.7B

13:30

CAD InternationalMerchandise Trade(Canadian dollar)(DEC)

Low -1.50B -1.96B

15:00USD WholesaleInventories (DEC)

Low 0.4% 0.6%

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15/15

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Daily i Forex Report by Epic Research 07-02-2013

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