DAILY I FOREX REPORT 4

TH

MARCH 2013

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Forex: AUD/USD Breakout Prone, Looking For A Catalyst

Australian Dollar Unchanged On Soft China Data, Sequester Looms

USD/CAD- Trading the Canadian GDP Report

Trading the News: Canada Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

The GDP report is expected to show Canada expanding another 0.6% in the fourth-quarter, but we may see a slowing recovery in the region as the Bank of Canada (BoC) curbs the record-rise in household indebtedness. Indeed, BoC Governor Mark Carney has scaled back his hawkish tone for monetary policy amid the recent lull in economic activity, and a dismal growth report may spark a selloff in the Canadian dollar as the central bank talks down speculation for a rate hike.

TRADING TIPS

SELL EURUSD BELOW

1.3058 tgs

1.3038/1.3018 sl 1.3088

BUY USDJPY ABOVE

92.75 tgt 92.95/93.15

SL 92.45

SELL GBPUSD BELOW

1.5155 tgt

1.5135/1.5115 SL

1.5185

HEADLINES

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.3060

HIGH: 1.3101

LOW: 1.3058

CLOSE: 1.3064

EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND : BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>-.0006(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 40(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 92.56

HIGH: 92.73

LOW: 92.44

CLOSE: 92.66

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD => -0.02( BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>59(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.5163

HIGH: 1.5186

LOW: 1.5159

CLOSE: 1.5163

GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD => .001( BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 31(BEARIISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 0.8613

HIGH: 0.8636

LOW: 0.8609

CLOSE: 0.8616

EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>-.003(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>58(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 81.9230

HIGH: 81.9620

LOW: 81.7800

CLOSE: 81.8890

USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD =>0.217(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>59(BULLISH SIGNAL)

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Mon

Feb 25 01:45

CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (FEB)

Medium 50.4 52.2 52.3

09:30

GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (JAN)

Medium 32288 34000 33440

10:00

EUR Italy to Sell 2014 Bonds and 2021, 2026 I/L Bonds

Medium

13:30

USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (JAN)

Medium

0.02

14:00

EUR Italian Voting Ends, Exit Polls to be Released

High

15:30

USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (FEB)

Low

3.0 5.5

21:15

RBA Assistant Governor Debelle

Addresses Business School

Low

Tue Feb 26

AUD APEC Finance and Central Bank Deputies' Meeting

Medium

00:00

USD Fed's Lockhart Speaks on Economy in

Tennessee

Low

GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-0.3%

GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.0%

02:00

NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Expectation (1Q)

High

2.3%

05:00

JPY Small Business Confidence (FEB)

Medium

44.3

11:00

GBP CBI Reported Sales (FEB)

Low

16 17

14:00

USD House Price Purchase Index (QoQ) (4Q)

Medium

1.1%

14:00

USD House Price Index

(MoM) (DEC) Medium

0.6% 0.6%

14:00

USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (YoY) (4Q)

Low

7.00% 3.64%

ECONOMIC CALENDER

14:00

USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index

(4Q)

Low

135.67

14:00

USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (DEC)

Low

145.82

14:00

USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (DEC)

Low

6.6% 5.52%

14:00

USD S&P/CS 20 City s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.6% 0.63%

15:00

USD Fed's Bernanke Testifies at Senate Banking Committee

High

15:00

USD Consumer Confidence (FEB)

High

62 58.6

15:00

USD New Home Sales (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

3.0% -7.3%

15:00

USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (FEB)

Low

-3 -12

15:00

USD New Home Sales (JAN)

Low

380K 369K

21:45

NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (JAN)

Medium

125M 486M

21:45

NZD Balance (YTD)

(New Zealand dollars) (JAN)

Medium

-897M -1208M

21:45

NZD Net Migration s.a. (JAN)

Low

0

21:45

NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (JAN)

Low

3.50B 3.58B

21:45

NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (JAN)

Low

3.60B 4.07B

23:50

JPY Retail Trade (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-1.6% 0.3%

23:50

JPY Large Retailers'

Sales (JAN) Medium

-0.8% 0.1%

23:50

JPY Retail Trade (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.8% 0.0%

Wed Feb 27

00:30

AUD Construction Work Done (4Q)

Low

1.5% 1.7%

07:00

EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (Mar)

Medium

5.9 5.8

07:00

CHF UBS Consumption Indicator (JAN)

Medium

1.34

07:00

EUR German Import Price Index (YoY)

(JAN)

Low

-0.4% 0.3%

07:00

EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.5% -0.5%

08:00

CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (FEB)

Medium

1.00 1.05

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (JAN)

Low

3.2% 3.3%

09:30

GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q P)

High

0.0% 0.0%

09:30

GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q P)

High

-0.3% -0.3%

09:30

GBP Total Business Investment (YoY) (4Q P)

Medium

5.1%

09:30

GBP Gross Fixed Capital Formation (4Q

P)

Low

0.2% -0.2%

09:30

GBP Government Spending (4Q P)

Low

0.1% 0.8%

09:30

GBP Exports (4Q P) Low

-0.6% 1.2%

09:30

GBP Total Business

Investment (QoQ) (4Q P)

Low

3.8%

09:30

GBP Private Consumption (4Q P)

Low

-0.1% 0.4%

09:30

GBP Index of Services (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.0% 0.0%

09:30

GBP Index of Services (3Mo3M) (DEC)

Low

0.1% 0.6%

09:30

GBP Imports (4Q P) Low

0.0% -0.4%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence

(FEB)

Medium

89.9 89.2

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (FEB)

Low

-8.8 -8.8

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (FEB)

Low

-13.1 -13.9

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (FEB F)

Low

-23.6 -23.6

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (FEB)

Low

-1.02 -1.09

12:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (FEB 22)

Low

-1.7%

13:30

USD Durable Goods Orders (JAN)

High

-4.0% 4.6%

13:30

USD Durables Ex Transportation (JAN)

Medium

0.3% 1.3%

13:30

USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (JAN)

Low

-0.8% 0.3%

13:30

USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air

(JAN)

Low

0.2% 0.2%

15:00

USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

4.9%

15:00

USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (JAN)

Low

2.0% -4.3%

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (FEB 22)

Low

-2884K

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (FEB 22)

Low

-2277K

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (FEB 22)

Low

4143K

15:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (FEB 22)

Low

417K

21:30

USD Fed's Fisher Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy in

New York

Low

21:45

NZD Building Permits (MoM) (JAN)

Low

-2.0% 9.4%

23:15

JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager

Index (FEB)

Medium

47.7

23:50

JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN P)

Medium

-4.8% -7.9%

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (FEB 22)

Low

-¥414.7B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (FEB 22)

Low

-¥620.6B

23:50

JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN P)

Low

1.5% 2.4%

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying

Japan Stocks (Yen) (FEB 22)

Low

¥197.9B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (FEB 22)

Low

-¥181.2B

Thu Feb 28

00:00

AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

6.2%

00:00

NZD ANZ Business Confidence (FEB)

Low

22.7

00:00

NZD ANZ Activity Outlook (FEB)

Low

31.4

00:01

GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (FEB)

Medium

-27 -26

00:30

AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

3.6%

00:30

AUD Private Capital Expenditure (4Q)

Medium

3.7% 2.8%

00:30

AUD Average Weekly Wages (YoY) (Nov)

Medium

0.3% 3.4%

00:30

AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.4%

00:30

AUD Average Weekly Wages (QoQ) (Nov)

Low

1.0% 0.4%

01:30

JPY BOJ Board MembeJPY Kiuchi Speaks to Business Leaders

Low

01:35

CNY MNI February

Business Sentiment Indicator

Low

02:00

NZD Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JAN)

Low

6.0%

04:00

JPY Vehicle Production (YoY) (JAN)

Low

-17.2%

05:00

JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

8.8% 10.0%

05:00

JPY Annualized Housing Starts (JAN)

Medium

0.894M 0.880M

05:00

JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (JAN)

Low

4.8%

06:45

CHF Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q)

High

0.9% 1.4%

06:45

CHF Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q)

Medium

0.0% 0.6%

08:55

EUR German Unemployment Change (FEB)

High

0K -16K

08:55

EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. (FEB)

Medium

6.8% 6.8%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index

(YoY) (JAN)

High

2.0% 2.0%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (JAN)

High

1.5% 1.5%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

-1.0% 0.4%

10:00

CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-0.3%

10:00

CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.1%

13:00

EUR German

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB P)

High

1.7% 1.7%

13:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY)

High

1.7% 1.9%

(FEB P)

13:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB P)

Medium

0.7% -0.5%

13:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB P)

Medium

0.7% -0.7%

13:30

USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (4Q S)

High

0.6% 0.6%

13:30

USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (4Q S)

High

0.5% -0.1%

13:30

USD Personal

Consumption (4Q S) Medium

2.3% 2.2%

13:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 24)

Medium

360K 362K

13:30

USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (4Q S)

Medium

0.9% 0.9%

13:30

CAD Current Account (BoP) (Canadian dollar) (4Q)

Medium

-$18.9B

13:30

USD Continuing Claims (FEB 17)

Low

3140K 3148K

13:30

CAD Raw Materials

Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.9% -2.0%

13:30

CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.2% 0.0%

14:00

USD NAPM-Milwaukee (FEB)

Low

51.3

14:45

USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (FEB)

Low

54.1 55.6

15:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (FEB 22)

Low

-127

16:00

USD Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (FEB)

Low

-2

21:45

NZD Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (4Q)

Medium

1.4% -3.2%

22:30

AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index

(FEB)

Medium

40.2

23:00

AUD RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (FEB)

Low

23:30

JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

High

-0.2% -0.1%

23:30

JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-0.7% -0.6%

23:30

JPY National Consumer Price Index

Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-0.2% -0.2%

23:30

JPY Jobless Rate (JAN)

Medium

4.2% 4.2%

23:30

JPY Household Spending (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

0.4% -0.7%

23:30

JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-0.6% -0.6%

23:30

JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-1.0% -0.9%

23:30

JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-0.5% -0.5%

23:30

JPY Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JAN)

Low

0.83 0.82

23:50

JPY Capital Spending excl Software (4Q)

Medium

-6.5% 2.4%

23:50

JPY Capital Spending (4Q)

Medium

-7.2% 2.2%

23:50

JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JAN)

Low

1.0%

Fri Mar 1

JPY Official Reserve

Assets (FEB) Low

$1267.3B

01:00

CNY Manufacturing PMI (FEB)

High

50.5 50.4

01:00

USD Fed's Evans Speaks in Des Moines

Low

01:45

CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (FEB)

Medium

52.3

05:00

JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-12.9%

05:30

AUD RBA Commodity Price Index (FEB)

Low

90.3

05:30

AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-6.4%

07:00

GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-0.2% 0.0%

07:00

EUR German Retail Sales (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-1.7% -4.7%

07:00

GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.2% 0.5%

07:00

EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.9% -1.7%

08:30

CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (FEB)

Medium

52.1 52.5

08:45

EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index

Manufacturing (FEB)

Low

47.6 47.8

08:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (FEB F)

Low

43.6 43.6

08:55

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (FEB F)

Medium

50.1 50.1

09:00

EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (4Q)

Medium

10.6%

09:00

EUR Italian Unemployment Rate

s.a. (JAN P)

Medium

11.2%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (FEB F)

Medium

47.8 47.8

09:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index

Manufacturing (FEB)

Medium

51 50.8

09:30

GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JAN)

Medium

0.8B 1.0B

09:30

GBP Net Consumer Credit (JAN)

Medium

0.2B 0.6B

09:30

GBP Mortgage

Approvals (JAN) Medium

56.5K 55.8K

09:30

GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (JAN)

Low

-1.0%

09:30

GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.7%

09:30

GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (JAN)

Low

3.8%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JAN)

Medium

11.8% 11.7%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

1.9% 2.0%

11:00

EUR Italian Annual Gross Domestic Product (2012)

Medium

-2.2% 0.4%

13:30

CAD Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized (4Q)

High

0.7% 0.6%

13:30

CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (DEC)

High

1.3%

13:30

USD Personal Spending (JAN)

Medium

0.2% 0.2%

13:30

USD Personal Income

(JAN) Medium

-2.0% 2.6%

13:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

1.3% 1.4%

13:30

CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (DEC)

Medium

-0.1% 0.3%

13:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (JAN)

Low

1.2% 1.3%

13:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.1% 0.0%

13:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.1% 0.0%

13:58

USD Markit US PMI

Final (FEB) Medium

14:55

USD U. of Michigan Confidence (FEB F)

Medium

76.3 76.3

15:00

USD ISM Manufacturing (FEB)

High

52.5 53.1

15:00

USD ISM Prices Paid (FEB)

Medium

57 56.5

15:00

USD Construction Spending (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.5% 0.9%

22:00

USD Total Vehicle Sales (FEB)

Low

15.05M 15.23M

22:00

USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (FEB)

Low

11.90M 12.08M

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