DAILY I FOREX REPORT 20

TH

MARCH 2013

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Dollar Drops Alongside S&P 500 on European Troubles

Cyprus Bank Levy Vote to Overshadow German, UK Economic Data

GBP/USD- Trading The U.K. Consumer Price Report

All Eyes on Cyprus as Parliament Votes on EU Bailout Terms

Euro, Risk-Linked Currencies to Fall if Bank Levy is Ratified

UK CPI, German ZEW Data Unlikely to Drive FX Volatility

The economic fills out with top-tier event risk in European trading hours but the fiasco in Cyprus is likely to remain central for financial markets. The island nation’s Parliament is due to vote on the terms of the controversial EU bailout deal that will impose a bank levy on deposits in Cypriot banks. Passage of the measure will set a precedent for debt crisis management that could spark bank runs in other Eurozone countries with sickly banks (notably Spain) as depositors look to safeguard their savings from potential future seizure. Fears of such an outcome stand to put the Euro under pressure. Overall risk appetite is likewise vulnerable in this scenario, threatening sentiment-geared currencies including the Canadian and Australian Dollars.

TRADING TIPS

SELL EURUSD BELOW

1.2915 tgs

1.2895/1.2875 sl 1.2945

BUY USDJPY ABOVE

95.50 tgt 95.70/95.90

SL 95.20

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE

1.5135 Tgt

1.5155/1.5175 SL

1.5105

HEADLINES

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.2943

HIGH: 1.2970

LOW: 1.2916

CLOSE: 1.2950

EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND : BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>-.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 49(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 95.36

HIGH: 95.75

LOW: 95.29

CLOSE: 95.36

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD => -0.07( BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>51(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.5095

HIGH: 1.5135

LOW: 1.5073

CLOSE: 1.5120

GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD => .002( BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 45(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 0.8574

HIGH: 0.8586

LOW: 0.8553

CLOSE: 0.8561

EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>-.003(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>40(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 82.7180

HIGH: 83.8360

LOW: 82.6270

CLOSE: 82.6980

USDINDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>0.22(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>51(BEARISH SIGNAL)

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Mon Mar 18

CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-4.8% -7.3%

00:01

GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (MAR)

Medium 1.2%

1.1%

00:01

GBP Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (MAR)

Low 1.7%

2.8%

00:30

AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (FEB)

Low 0.0%

-2.2%

00:30

AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (FEB)

Low 9.4%

10.9%

01:30

CNY China February Property Prices

Medium

06:45

CHF SECO March 2013 Economic Forecasts

Medium

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Trade

Balance (euros) (JAN) Low -3.9B -3.5B 10.8B

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) (JAN)

Low 9.0B 10.9B 10.3B

12:30

CAD International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar) (JAN)

Low

-1.92B

14:00

EUR Cyprus Parliament to Vote on Deposit Levy for EU Bailout Plan

High

14:00

USD NAHB Housing Market Index (MAR)

Low

47 46

Tue Mar 19

00:30

AUD RBA Policy Meeting - March Minutes

High

02:00

CNY Conference Board China February Leading Economic Index

Low

04:00

JPY Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa Steps Down

High

05:00

JPY Leading Index (JAN F)

Medium

96.3

05:00

JPY Coincident Index

(JAN F) Low

92.0

05:30

JPY Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (FEB)

Low

0.2%

ECONOMIC CALENDER

05:30

JPY Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY)

(FEB)

Low

0.5%

07:00

EUR EU 25 New Car Registrations (FEB)

Low

-8.7%

09:30

GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

High

2.8% 2.7%

09:30

GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

High

2.2% 2.3%

09:30

GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

0.7% -0.5%

09:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output Core

n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

1.1% 1.4%

09:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

1.8% 2.0%

09:30

GBP Retail Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

3.3% 3.3%

09:30

GBP DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) (JAN)

Low

2.4% 3.3%

09:30

GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Low

1.5% 1.3%

09:30

GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB)

Low

0.8% 1.8%

09:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.3% 0.2%

09:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.4% 0.2%

09:30

GBP Retail Price Index (FEB)

Low

09:30

GBP Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (FEB)

Low

3.2% 3.3%

09:30

GBP Retail Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.8% -0.4%

10:00

EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (MAR)

High

48.1 48.2

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic

Sentiment) (MAR)

Medium

42.4

10:00

EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (MAR)

Medium

6 5.2

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low

-1.7%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (JAN)

Low

-4.8%

12:30

USD Building Permits (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

2.1% -0.6%

12:30

USD Housing Starts (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

2.8% -8.5%

12:30

CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.6% -3.1%

12:30

CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.4% -0.9%

12:30

USD Building Permits (FEB)

Low

923K 904K

12:30

USD Housing Starts (FEB)

Low

915K 890K

21:45

NZD Current Account Balance (4Q)

Medium

-2.950B -4.418B

21:45

NZD Current Account Deficit-GDP Ratio (4Q)

Low

-4.9% -4.7%

23:30

AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.2%

Wed Mar 20

USD Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting

High

00:00

AUD DEWR Internet Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (FEB)

Low

-0.7%

07:00

EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

1.5% 1.7%

07:00

EUR German Producer Prices (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.2% 0.8%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (JAN)

Low

27.0B

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (JAN)

Low

13.9B

09:30

GBP Bank of England Releases Monetary Policy Committee

Minutes

High

09:30

GBP Jobless Claims Change (FEB)

High

-5.0K -12.5K

09:30

GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (JAN)

Medium

1.5% 1.4%

09:30

GBP Claimant Count Rate (FEB)

Medium

4.7% 4.7%

09:30

GBP Employment Change (3M/3M) (JAN)

Medium

140K 154K

09:30

GBP ILO Unemployment Rate

(3M) (JAN)

Medium

7.8% 7.8%

09:30

GBP Weekly Earnings exBonus (3M/YoY) (JAN)

Low

1.5% 1.3%

10:00

CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) (MAR)

Medium

10

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 15)

Low

-4.7%

12:30

GBP U.K. Chancellor Osborne Presents 2013 Budget to Parliament

High

13:00

CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (MoM) (FEB)

Low

-0.3%

13:00

CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (YoY) (FEB)

Low

2.7%

13:00

CAD Teranet/National Bank HP Index (FEB)

Low

153

14:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 15)

Low

-1526K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 15)

Low

2624K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 15)

Low

83K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 15)

Low

-3571K

15:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (MAR A)

Medium

-23.2 -23.6

18:00

USD Fed Releases Summary of Economic Projections

High

18:00

USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision (MAR 20)

High

0.25% 0.25%

18:30

USD Fed's Bernanke Holds Press Conference in Washington

High

21:45

NZD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q)

High

0.9% 0.2%

21:45

NZD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q)

High

2.3% 2.0%

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (FEB)

Medium

-¥855.9B -¥1629.4B

23:50

JPY Adjusted

Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (FEB)

Low

-¥1099.4B -¥678.9B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 15)

Low

-¥838.2B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 15)

Low

¥1121.9B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 15)

Low

¥764.4B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen)

(MAR 15)

Low

-¥269.6B

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-1.2 6.4

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (FEB)

Low

14.9 7.3

Thu

Mar 21 00:00

AUD CBAHIA House Affordability (4Q)

Low

65.8

00:30

AUD RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Australian dollar) (FEB)

Low

393M

01:45

CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (MAR)

Medium

50.9 50.4

02:00

NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

0.4%

02:00

NZD Credit Card Spending s.a. (MoM)

(FEB)

Medium

-2.5%

04:30

JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

-1.3% 1.8%

05:00

JPY Supermarket Sales (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-4.7%

07:00

CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (FEB)

Medium

2.13B

07:00

CHF Exports (MoM) (FEB)

Low

3.70%

07:00

CHF Imports (MoM) (FEB)

Low

-0.5%

07:00

JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-0.9%

08:00

CHF Money Supply M3 (YoY) (FEB)

Low

9.20%

08:00

EUR French

Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR P)

Low

44.2 43.9

08:00

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR P)

Low

44.0 43.7

08:30

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR A)

Medium

50.5 50.3

08:30

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR A)

Medium

55.0 54.7

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (MAR A)

Medium

48.2 47.9

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager

Index Manufacturing (MAR A)

Medium

48.2 47.9

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR A)

Medium

48.2 47.9

09:30

GBP PSNB ex

Interventions (FEB) Medium

8.0B -11.4B

09:30

GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (FEB)

Medium

-12.0B -35.6B

09:30

GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (FEB)

Medium

8.2B -9.9B

09:30

GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

1.2% 0.2%

09:30

GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

0.5% -0.6%

09:30

GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.6% -0.5%

09:30

GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.4% -0.6%

11:00

GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices (MAR)

Low

17 20

11:00

GBP CBI Trends Total Orders (MAR)

Low

-15 -14.0

12:30

CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.8% -2.1%

12:30

USD Initial Jobless

Claims (MAR 16) Medium

344K 332K

12:30

CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.3% -0.9%

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (MAR 9)

Low

3063K 3024K

12:58

USD Markit US PMI Preliminary (MAR)

Medium

54.8

13:00

USD House Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.7% 0.6%

14:00

USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

1.6% 0.4%

14:00

USD Leading Indicators (FEB)

Medium

0.3% 0.2%

14:00

USD Philadelphia Fed. (MAR)

Medium

-3 -12.5

14:00

USD API Monthly

Statistical Report Low

14:00

USD Existing Home Sales (FEB)

Low

5.00M 4.92M

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR

15)

Low

-145

21:00

NZD ANZ NZ Job Ads (MoM) (FEB)

Low

-1.5%

21:45

NZD Net Migration s.a.

(FEB) Low

350

23:00

AUD Conference Board Leading Index (JAN)

Medium

-0.1%

Fri Mar 22

01:35

CNY MNI March Flash Business Sentiment Indicator

Low

09:00

EUR German IFO - Business Climate (MAR)

Medium

107.8 107.4

09:00

EUR German IFO - Current Assessment (MAR)

Medium

110.5 110.2

09:00

EUR German IFO -

Expectations (MAR) Medium

105.0 104.6

12:45

USD Fed's Raskin Speaks on Labor Market in Washington

Low

16:00

USD Fed Revisions of Industrial Production

Low

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