Daily Flyer - CLSAwales.clsa.com/event/IF16/if16_dailyflyer2.pdf · Daily Flyer provides a run down...
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Daily Flyer Keynotes and Specialist Speakers
Tuesday, 20 September
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We are delighted to present our keynote and specialist speakers. The
Daily Flyer provides a run down of the daily presentation schedule.
Keynote Address Series
The Lucky Years: How to Thrive in the
Brave New World of Health David Agus
Professor of Medicine & Engineering, University of Southern California
08:00-09:30 Tuesday, Breakfast Keynote, Track 1, Grand Ballroom, LL
David Agus offers insights and access to breathtaking and powerful new
technologies that promise to transform medicine in our generation. In the
course of offering recommendations, he emphasises his belief that there is no
“right” answer, no master guide that’s “one size fits all.” Each one of us must
get to know our bodies in uniquely personal ways, and he shows us exactly
how to do that so that we can individually create a plan to live longer. This
groundbreaking approach will change not only how we care for ourselves, but
also how we develop the next generation of treatments and cures.
Agus is one of the world’s leading doctors and pioneering biomedical researchers.
Over the past 20 years, he has received acclaim for his innovations in medicine
and contributions to new technologies, which continue to change the perception
of health and empower people around the world to maintain healthy lives. Agus
is professor of medicine and engineering at the University of Southern California,
where he leads USC’s Westside Cancer Center and Center for Applied Molecular
Medicine. He serves as a CBS News contributor.
The rise of data religion Yuval Noah Harari
Lecturer, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Hebrew University of Jerusalem
12:30-14:00 Tuesday, Luncheon Keynote, Track 1, Grand Ballroom, LL
The most interesting place in the world from a religious perspective is not the
Middle East, but rather Silicon Valley. That is where the new religions of the 21st
Century are being created. Particularly important is the Data Religion, which
promises humans all the traditional religious prizes: happiness, peace, prosperity
and even eternal life; but here on earth with the help of data and processing
technology, as opposed to after death with the help of supernatural beings.
Data Religion believes that the entire universe is a flow of data that organisms
are algorithms, and that humanity’s cosmic vocation is to create an all-
encompassing data-processing system - and then merge into it. On the practical
level, dataists believe that given enough biometric data and enough computing
power, you could create an external algorithm that will understand humans much
better than we understand ourselves. Once this happens, authority will shift from
humans to algorithms and humanist practices such as democratic elections and
free markets will become as obsolete as rain dances and flint knives.
Yuval Noah Harari is the author of international bestsellers: Sapiens: A Brief
History of Humankind and Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow. His first
book, Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, surveys the entire length of human
history, from the evolution of Homo sapiens in the Stone Age up to the political
and technological revolutions of the Silicon Age. It has become an international
bestseller, and has been translated into more than 50 languages worldwide.
Registration Desk Lobby Level
Tuesday to Thursday: 07:00-18:00
Friday: 07:30-14:30
2/15
Computation, AI, robotics, and the
transformation of practically everything Daniela Rus Director, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
17:00-18:00 Tuesday, Closing Keynote, Track 1, Grand Ballroom, LL
The digitisation of practically everything coupled with the mobile internet, the
automation of knowledge work and advanced robotics promises a future with
democratised use of machines and widespread use of robots, personalisation,
and customisation. Daniela Rus will discuss recent technological and societal
megatrends and address the role of computing, AI, and robotics in tackling
these challenges. She will also describe recent advances in robotics and AI
that aim to enable the pervasive use of machines to assist humans with
physical tasks. Where are the gaps that we need to address to advance
toward a future where robots are common in the world and they help reliably
with physical tasks? What is the role of computation along this trajectory? By
enabling on-demand creation of functional robots from intuitive specifications,
we can begin to imagine a world with one robot for every physical task.
Rus is the Andrew (1956) and Erna Viterbi Professor of Electrical Engineering
and Computer Science and Director of the Computer Science and Artificial
Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL) at MIT. Rus’s research interests are in
robotics, mobile computing and data science.
Specialist Sessions
The great surge: Ascent of the
developing world Steve Radelet Professor, Georgetown University
09:30-10:30 Tuesday, Track 1, Grand Ballroom, LL
The last two decades have brought more progress for the world’s poorest
countries than any time in human history. Since the early 1990s, more than
one billion people have been lifted out of extreme poverty, incomes in
developing countries have doubled, global hunger has been cut in half, child disease has fallen sharply, and democracy has spread like never before. This
session will explore what happened in developing counties, and why. It will also
examine whether this trend can continue during the current period of
uncertainty and global turbulence, and the implications for the global economy.
Steven Radelet holds the Donald F McHenry Chair in Global Human Development
at Georgetown University and serves as an economic adviser to the President of Liberia. He has served as the Chief Economist of USAID, Senior Adviser to
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury.
From 1990 to 2000 he was on the faculty of Harvard University. He served for
four years (1991-95) as a resident adviser to the government of Indonesia and
for two years (1986-88) as an adviser to the government of The Gambia. Radelet
is the author/coauthor of several books and dozens of articles, including The Great Surge: The Ascent of the Developing World. He holds a PhD and Master's
in public policy from Harvard University.
3/15
Live wires: Utilities confront clean-tech
disruption Rajesh Panjwani Head of Power Research, CLSA - Hong Kong
09:30-10:30 Tuesday, Track 4, Salon I & II, M/F
Falling costs and rising penetration of solar panels and batteries have triggered
fears of a “utility death spiral” and fuelled speculation about renewable energy
making up most, if not all, of the world’s electricity mix in the next couple of
decades. Some cleantech businessmen, like Elon Musk, and clean-energy
experts like Tony Seba have also made claims about electricity customers being
able to go off-grid using solar panels and batteries.
Rajesh Panjwani demonstrates that these are pipedreams and going off-grid will
remain off-limits for decades to come. He will also discuss changing tariff
structures which put an end to hidden subsidies that non-solar customers are
paying to rooftop-solar customers. These changes discourage new solar-rooftop
installations (flat globally for the past five years despite so much noise) while
utility-scale solar installations have grown threefold over the same period.
Rajesh expects solar-power generation to account for around 10% of the
world’s power mix by 2030. This also means that current technologies are not
enough and we need energy miracles to combat climate change. Some of the
money being spent on renewable subsidies should be diverted to energy R&D
to solve the problem of global warming. Meanwhile, regulated, well-run
utilities should continue to thrive. However, those operating in unregulated,
competitive markets will face the brunt of the rising share of renewables.
Equipment suppliers and thermal-power plants also face challenging times.
A tale of two cities: How Stock Connect
will reshape Hong Kong and Shenzhen Franky Chung Senior Vice President, Mainland Affairs Dept., Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd
Huiqi Pei Manager, Strategy and International Relations, Shenzhen Stock Exchange
09:30-10:30 Tuesday, Track 6, Lounge Room, M/F
Hong Kong and Shenzhen already border one another but are moving another
step closer with the introduction of Stock Connect. The northern city boasts a
plethora of SMEs, many of which operate in the new economy and provide a
distinctive growth trajectory. The special economic zone’s more liberal policies
are a big draw for China’s talent and capital, cementing Shenzhen’s position
as a centre of innovation. Hong Kong, on the other hand, offers access to
more established businesses. Dual-listed SOEs have so far been the biggest
beneficiaries of mainland funds given their lower relative valuation in the
southern city. In this session, we’ll look at how Connect links the two cities as
well as the opportunities for investors on both sides of the border.
Franky Chung has close to 20 years’ extensive experience in the financial
industry in both commercial and government sectors. He joined HKEx in 2005
and drives its promotion and educational initiatives in the mainland.
Pei is a founder member of SZSE’s international investors service team. He
studied in internationalization of Chinese capital market.
4/15
Stock Connect and beyond: HKEx
strategic update Charles Li Chief Executive, Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd
10:30-11:30 Tuesday, Track 1, Grand Ballroom, LL
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEx) earlier this year
announced its Strategic Plan for 2016-18, outlining the development roadmap
for HKEx and Hong Kong's financial markets. The plan includes HKEx's
business strategy for its three asset classes: equities, commodities and fixed
income and currency (FIC).
HKEx Chief Executive Charles Li will provide the latest updates on HKEx’s
business and strategic initiatives, including the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock
Connect that was announced on 16 August 2016.
Li has served as Chief Executive of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing
(HKEx) since 2010. In this role, Li has orchestrated some of the most
significant strategic initiatives in HKEx’s history, including the expansion into
fixed income, currency and commodities through the acquisition of the
London Metal Exchange in 2012 and the launch of OTC Clear in 2013, as well
as enhanced mutual market access with mainland China through Shanghai
and Shenzhen Stock Connect Programmes and other cooperation.
Li’s career in financial services spans more than 20 years. Before joining
HKEx, he was Chairman of JP Morgan China, prior to which he was President
of Merrill Lynch China. Before joining Merrill Lynch in 1994, Li practiced law in
New York with Davis Polk & Wardwell and Brown & Wood.
Malaysia strategy: Fear of missing out AC Tan Head of Malaysia Research, CLSA - Malaysia
10:30-11:30 Tuesday, Track 5, Drawing Room, M/F
FOMO, or “fear of missing out” for the uninitiated, continues to plague
Malaysia given the absence of significant active foreign inflow despite notable
gains for Asean peers. Malaysia has experienced more than three years of an
unrelenting downtrend in foreign interests leading to a cumulative net sell
position (since July 15) over a five-year horizon.
Chief culprits are the ringgit’s vulnerability towards external economic factors
and 1MDB-related newsflow. We believe there are good reasons to suggest this
is changing. Considering the progress Malaysia has had (the ringgit is actually
up 7% this year) diversifying away from oil revenue, introducing GST and
containing costs through subsidy reforms, much of the bad news is in the price.
Meanwhile, the odd prediction by the market for an early election is
premature and not straight forward. Shifting political sands are the cause for
an embattled incumbent Barisan Nasional, where the response is likely to be
in the form of populist measures through infra, consumer-friendly budgets
and more interest rate cuts. This, along with the positive inflections in
business and consumer spending, lead us to like tangible growth stories,
dividend-yield plays and a select small-cap basket.
5/15
Beyond the hype: Real applications of
blockchain technology in capital markets,
trade finance, & other uses: An
introduction & status update Justin Dombrowski Senior Manager, Fintech Innovation & Blockchain, PwC
10:30-11:30 Tuesday, Track 6, Lounge Room, M/F
The popular press would have us believe that blockchain technology and smart
contracts will utterly transform the financial-services landscape. Understandably,
many in financial services find this claim hard to believe. Yet there is some truth to
it. This presentation aims to help attendees understand the tech and cut through
the hype to identify valid/invalid use cases and investment opportunities. Justin
Dombrowski will begin with a brief introduction to the technology and its major
developments before launching into a deep dive into its application in various
sectors, from capital markets infrastructure and trade finance to IoT and real
estate. We will examine how the technology is being deployed, its likelihood for
real disruption, and the major industry players involved. Attendees will leave with a
firm grasp of blockchain technology, its application to a range of sectors, concrete
metrics for evaluating its influence in investment decisions, and informed
suggestions of where to look for future value.
Justin Dombrowski is senior manager for Fintech Innovation & Blockchain Technology
for PwC's Asia Pacific region. He is a noted expert on blockchain and other emerging
financial technologies, possessing a wealth of experience assisting clients understand
and apply emerging tech in payments, capital markets, insurance, trade finance and
telecommunications in the US, EU and South East Asia.
China internet and telecoms undergoing
structural rerating Elinor Leung Head of Telecom & Internet Research, CLSA - Hong Kong
11:30-12:30 Tuesday, Track 1, Grand Ballroom, LL
Internet and telecom stocks are the new growth engines of China’s economy.
These sectors are up 12% year to date, driving almost all the positive
performance of MSCI China (+4%) this year, as they make up 40% of the
index. Tencent, Netease and Alibaba delivered stellar performances with
shares up 20-30%. Even China Mobile was up 10%.
Despite market scepticism, the internet sector continued to deliver 46% YoY
revenue growth and 34% YoY non-GAAP Ebit growth in 1H16. Ecommerce
and mobile gaming have reaccelerated growth. Costs have moderated as new
startups struggle with funding. The industry has consolidated and leaders
have become more dominant, with both Alibaba and Tencent generating
revenue growth of about 50% year on year.
Alibaba, Ctrip, Tencent and China Mobile are near-monopolies. Alibaba has the
largest potential for rerating with escalating monetisation. ecommerce GMV is
likely to more than double and revenue more than triple by FY21. Grocery and
rural are new growth engines and each represents a Rmb1tn-plus opportunity.
China Mobile has the world’s largest 4G network, covering 98% of the population
and makes the world’s cheapest 4G smartphones at sub-Rmb200 (US$30). Over
half of its users are using 4G. It is also gaining share in fixed-broadband market.
Revenue is improving and Elinor believes it can maintain mid- to high-single-digit
growth.
6/15
Are exchange-traded funds (ETFs): the
enemy for active investors? Tobias Bland CEO, Enhanced Investment Products Ltd
11:30-12:30 Tuesday, Track 2, Grand I & II, LL
Although ETFs continue to gain assets, some investors believe they are a fad.
Tobias Bland examines the pros and cons of ETF investing in Asia. He will
address whether they will continue to pressure fees in the industry and if
active managers can justify paying fees to own them in their portfolio?
Investors cannot ignore a US$3.3tn industry.
Bland has the primary responsibility for managing Hong Kong-based asset-
management firm Enhanced Investment Products Limited (EIP). Bland
oversees the group’s operations, which include a suite of Alpha and Beta
products under EIP Limited and EIP Alpha Limited. In 2014, CLSA Hong Kong
Holdings Limited acquired 49% of the XIE Shares Hong Kong ETF platform.
Prior to founding EIP in December 2001, Bland spent eight years at Jardine
Fleming Securities (now JP Morgan), where he was head of proprietary
trading, responsible for a relative value portfolio invested in Southeast Asia.
Prior to establishing the proprietary trading desk, Bland was involved in
convertible bond, tax and warrant arbitrage. He joined Jardine Fleming in
1993 as a member of the securities lending department in Hong Kong.
Saudi Arabia: New realities Christopher Davidson Reader in Middle East Politics, Durham University
11:30-12:30 Tuesday, Track 6, Lounge Room, M/F
Buffeted by Arab Spring and now the new dynamics of a fast-changing
international oil industry, Saudi Arabia is facing unprecedented challenges. In this
presentation, Christopher Davidson focuses on the impact of low oil prices on the
kingdom's domestic economy and its crucial “social contract” with both citizens and expatriates. In particular, it considers the sociopolitical ramifications of
subsidy removal, the introduction of taxes, and the failure to sustain public-
sector employment generation. In addition, Davidson considers the international
impact of low oil prices for Saudi Arabia, not only in terms of the kingdom's
involvement in several costly wars and proxy conflicts in the region, but also in
the context of its historical alliance with the USA and Western powers.
Davidson is an academic who has taught in leading British universities for
more than a decade. He has also lived and worked in the United Arab
Emirates, Lebanon and Japan. He is the author of several acclaimed books
and monographs, most recently, After the Sheikhs, which was published by
Oxford University Press in 2013 and reviewed by both The Economist and the
The Guardian. His shorter, policy-focused articles have appeared in The New York Times, Foreign Affairs and Foreign Policy.
Davidson’s new book, Shadow Wars: The Secret Struggle for the Middle East,
will be released on 6 October in the UK and on 1 November internationally, it
provides a systematic dissection of the root causes of the region's perennial
suffering, the failures of the Arab Spring, and the resurgence of Jihadist
terror. Drawing on four years of archival research, interviews and access to thousands of declassified and leaked documents, the book demonstrates the
full extent of foreign meddling and covert operations for more than half a
century in one of the world's most contested arenas.
7/15
Mission (im)possible:
Bad-debt collection in China Phil Groves President, DAC Management
14:00-15:00 Tuesday, Track 1, Grand Ballroom, LL
China’s NPLs have long been a concern for investors. A tripling of bank credit
after the global financial crisis and an even bigger increase in shadow lending
have led to significant questionable debt. The economic slowdown isn't
helping either. But one man’s trash is another man’s treasure. Phil Groves has
been collecting bad debt in China since the market first opened to foreigners
in 2001, working with banks, AMCs and multinationals. In this presentation,
he will talk about how one navigates an opaque legal system and the intricate
web of local interests to realise the scrap value; how the market for
distressed assets has changed over the years and what the options are for
China to address this plague.
Groves has more than 15 years’ experience in distressed credit and special
situations investments in China. In 2001, he pioneered the first foreign
acquisition of Chinese nonperforming loans (NPLs). After sourcing and
managing additional NPL portfolios, Groves established DAC’s wholly-owned
PRC distressed asset-servicing platform, Gao Fei Consulting Services, in Beijing.
Today, Gao Fei Consulting is the most accomplished Western firm in the
market, and it is the only such licensee with permission to operate nationally.
Smidcaps and moats Amar Gill Smidcap Strategy, CLSA - Hong Kong
Timothy Lee Investment Analyst, CLSA
14:00-15:00 Tuesday, Track 5, Drawing Room, M/F
In his recently created Asia Pacific Smidcap Strategy role, Amar Gill picks out
smidcap stocks that have a sound business model, with high or rising return
on capital, and potential for 100% total returns over three to five years.
Stocks are divided between those under US$2bn and midcaps up to US$8bn
market cap. The selection criteria include sound management, a good record
of treating minority shareholders and companies generating high operating
cashflow. Twenty-plus Asia Pacific stocks in sectors ranging from consumer,
internet, healthcare to properties are represented. On average they have an
ROIC of 27%, ROE of 22%, a three-year EPS Cagr of 30% and trade US$11m
per day.
Amar also presents an update on the Asia-Pacific Moat portfolio, ie, companies
generating positive EVAR with a durable competitive advantage at reasonable
valuations. He presents together with Timothy Lee, who will discuss stocks with
potential 100% plus returns in Hong Kong and China, including Minth, Man Wah
and Xinyi Solar which figure among the smidcap top picks.
8/15
Two whales and a heli Nicholas Smith Japan Strategist, CLSA - Japan
14:00-15:00 Tuesday, Track 6, Lounge Room, M/F
Abe remains Japan’s most popular prime minister in a generation, but what of
his Abenomics? Has it failed? Bank of Japan activity has dwarfed that of any
other central bank, and yet inflation continues to be stubbornly weak. Worse,
the yen has soared. Is governor Kuroda out of bullets - and does it even
matter? Globally, the emphasis is shifting, from monetary to fiscal stimulus,
but Abe’s fiscal spending package looks like a fizzer, limbo-dancing under low
expectations: is there any chance of helicopter money - or is monetisation
already happening and the spending splurge barely begun?
As foreign buying has tapered, the BoJ has emerged as a major driver of the
stock market, doubling its buying to almost US$60bn/year. Increasingly, this
is eclipsing the other whale, GPIF, the biggest pension fund in the world,
though that fund itself remains below target weight in Japanese equities.
Japanese profits remain strong, despite the surge in the yen, and valuations
are succulent; barely over halfway into the year, share buybacks already hit a
new record and the corporate-governance revolution seems to be gathering
pace. Will it be enough? Join us in the Japanese strategy session to find out.
Putting big data in its place:
Understanding cities and human mobility
with new data sources Jameson Toole Co-Founder & CEO, Wherehouse, Inc.
15:00-16:00 Tuesday, Track 1, Grand Ballroom, LL
Billions of people now own and use mobile devices capable of generating,
capturing and storing massive amounts of data about their behaviour. Hidden
in this data are patterns of human behaviour that can be used to build
systems that can bear the strain of these forces, if you know how to look for
them. As great demographic shifts carry millions of people online, into cities
and out of poverty, understanding their behaviour is critical for building
systems and infrastructure to support them.
In his research at MIT and experience in industry, Jameson Toole has applied and
developed data mining and machine learning techniques to understand human
mobility, social, and economic outcomes within communities. Congestion within
cities, the spread of information, and the effect of employment shocks on
individuals can all be understood better by incorporating data from smartphones.
Just as important as these insights themselves is the process of finding them.
Predicting unemployment rates from changes in mobile-phone calling patterns or
the spread of innovations through geographically embedded social networks only
becomes possible with a fierce commitment to multidisciplinary research and
completely new approaches to problems. Data alone doesn’t hold all the
answers, but when paired with new processes, it promises to be a critical
component to understanding human behaviour and building a better future.
Toole is CEO and cofounder of Wherehouse Inc, a company dedicated to helping
others unlock the potential of location data. Jameson's research is highly
interdisciplinary, spanning from understanding human mobility patterns in cities,
the adoption of innovations through social networks, and developing novel
predictors of critical economic indicators from new data sources.
9/15
Clean take off: Mission and money align
to back Asia's green economy Tessa Tennant Project Originator, NDC Finance
Calvin Quek Head of Sustainable Finance, Greenpeace East Asia's Sustainable Finance Program
15:00-16:00 Tuesday, Track 4, Salon I & II, M/F
In Paris last December almost every country submitted a plan to reduce its
carbon emissions. This translates into a multi-trillion dollar investment agenda
and will influence the fortunes of many Asian companies. Who are the winners
and who are the emerging climate zombies? Tessa Tennant and Calvin Quek
look at other factors converging to reinforce the Clean Take Off and highlight
the sectors set to gain and those where investors need to dig deeper.
Asia has thousands and thousands of kilometres of coastline just above sea-
level and many of its largest cities and most strategic infrastructure sits on
these coastal plains. So even small increments in sea-levels can have
devastating and costly, disruptive effects. That's on top of more severe
weather events and the related floods and droughts already happening. The
big difference from the 1990s when “green” had a good run, is that money is
following the mission this time. Climate funding by nations and the
multilateral banks already amounts to many billions which, added to the yield
characteristics of a good number of the investment opportunities, suggests
it's time to look at the climate business again.
Tennant is a serial innovator in green and climate finance. She co-founded the
UK's first green investment fund in 1988, the Jupiter Ecology Fund. She is a
founding director and President of The Ice Organisation, creator of the
environmental rewards programme myice.com, and is a non-Executive
Director of the UK's Green Investment Bank.
Calvin Quek is head of Greenpeace East Asia’s Sustainable Finance Program
and leads its engagement with the financial community. He serves on the Board
of the China Carbon Forum, and was the first executive director of the Beijing
Energy Network. Prior to joining Greenpeace, he worked at Citigroup for close
to a decade. He led Citigroup Singapore’s CSR & Volunteerism committee in
2008. Quek has an MBA from Peking University, and a Master of Science in
Wealth Management from Singapore Management University. Quek is a regular
commentator on China's energy and environmental issues, contributing to the
Financial Times and South China Morning Post, and has appeared on CNBC,
Bloomberg and CCTV, and speaks regularly at investment summits.
10/15
Snuffing puff: Banks trigger housing
slowdown Andrew Johnston Contractors / Building Materials, CLSA - Australia
David Murphy
China Reality Research, CLSA - China
Sholto Maconochie Property, CLSA - Australia
Brian Johnson Head of Banks Research, CLSA - Australia
15:00-16:00 Tuesday, Track 6, Lounge Room, M/F
Affordability and household debt make the housing bubble in Australia look
overextended: foreign capital has assisted in creating the bubble. Tightening
bank-credit standards are the likely catalyst for a correction. Our base case has
the crisis starting with cheap apartments, but spreading to other apartments in
the same area. However, it is unlikely to result in sharp price falls for houses in
other regions. This is likely to lead to small-developer defaults and a sharp
contraction in apartment construction. Our worst-case scenario sees dwelling
prices fall sharply in all areas, eventually leading to recession.
Our panel believe the correction will start with settlement problems among
low-quality apartments. Our proprietary analysis of 35 years of house sales
data indicates expensive apartments in those areas will not be immune.
However, contagion to the dwelling prices in other areas will be limited.
Construction will follow prices so we expect apartment construction to be the
hardest hit over the next five years. Our “recession scenario” would likely
require the price contagion to extend to other regions and include houses;
household debt at 122% of GDP and price-to-income ratios of up to 12x
increase this risk.
David Murphy provides the China perspective on Australia’s housing boom
that is so important given that around half of all apartments are being
purchased by Chinese investors. Brian Johnson looks at how the banks will be
affected by a slowdown in the housing market, Sholto Maconochie looks at
the effect on Reits, and Andrew Johnston considers the effect on developers.
11/15
Clean disruption or evolution? Solar,
batteries and changing utility models Jonathan Weisgall Vice President, Government Relations, Berkshire Hathaway Energy
16:00-17:00 Tuesday, Track 1, Grand Ballroom, LL
“For just US$18.30 per month [millions of American homeowners] will store
enough energy to essentially get off the grid,” says Tony Seba, author of
Clean disruption. Is that really feasible? No. Going completely off the grid
requires a prohibitively expensive energy-storage system. In addition, private
solar is not the same as going off the grid; private solar customers still need
the grid 23.99 hours a day. Moreover, even when private solar produces more
power than the home needs, power grid support is still necessary to start
large equipment such as air conditioners. While US energy companies are
facing many new changes, local utilities are here for the long term and are
providing renewable energy for customers in more cost-effective ways, such
as subscriber-based universal solar and universal wind, both of which can be
built without rate increases.
Jonathan Weisgall is Vice President for Government Relations for Berkshire
Hathaway Energy. He serves as chairman for the Center for Energy Efficiency
and Renewable Technologies and Vice President of the Geothermal Energy
Association. He is an Adjunct Professor of Law at Georgetown University Law
Center, where he has taught a seminar on energy issues since 1992, and he
received the law school’s award for outstanding adjunct professor of the year
for 2015. Weisgall graduated Phi Beta Kappa from Columbia College and from
Stanford Law School. He previously practiced law in Washington DC at
Covington & Burling and has published articles in Legal Times, The New York
Times, Los Angeles Times, Foreign Policy, SAIS Review and The Bulletin of
the Atomic Scientists.
Global commodities: Surprising strength Andrew Driscoll Head of Resources Research, CLSA - Australia
16:00-17:00 Tuesday, Track 3, Grand III & IV, LL
Commodity-price rises have decisively outpaced consensus estimates this
year, leading to exceptional returns among some of the leveraged producers.
Yet, markets have been tricky to navigate, with Chinese policy difficult to
interpret. Demand in China has been characterised by strong growth in
infrastructure investment, a higher base and now tapering construction
activity, and weakness in the manufacturing sector. The supply backdrop has
proved mostly constructive, with China’s supply-side reform agenda a
welcome and long-term tailwind.
Bulk commodities have outperformed base metals, but we anticipate some
reversal into year-end as both iron-ore and coal-supply availability improve.
Supply displacement remains an overhang for iron ore next year, while coal
prices will be set by Chinese policy. It’s been a mixed picture for base metals,
but largely to scrip in terms of zinc and nickel leading the complex as copper
lags. For the miners, higher prices and the ongoing focus on cost-out and
capital efficiencies has led to rising free-cashflow generation. Balance sheets
need further strengthening, but attention is starting to shift to the next phase
of growth projects. The sector has rerated, but Andrew Driscoll still sees value
among some of the better-positioned miners. As always, the space provides
tremendous trading opportunities.
12/15
CG watch 2016 Charles Yonts ESG, Regional, CLSA - Hong Kong
Shaun Cochran Thematic Research, CLSA - Korea
Philip Whalley Sales, CLSA - UK
Jamie Allen Secretary General, Asian Corporate Governance Association
16:00-17:00 Tuesday, Track 4, Salon I & II, M/F
Two years on from our 2014 Dark shades of grey report, Global Head of
Thematic research Shaun Cochran picks up the governance mantle from Amar
Gill. CLSA has teamed up once again with Jamie Allen and the AGCA team to
review the state of play in Asian governance. We look at how the Japanese-
push for reforms is showing up in top-down and bottom-up assessments of
actual governance practice. We also explore the rise of passive investors and
what that means for governance - it might not be what you assume. Finally
we introduce deeper analysis of Australia to consider the degree to which Asia
can ultimately replicate their success in the field. Who has improved, who has
slipped and why is it so important? Come and listen to our governance crew
to figure it all out.
Allen is the founding Secretary General of the Asian Corporate Governance
Association (ACGA). He is a published author and has more than 29 years’
experience as a writer, editor and analyst covering Asian business, finance
and economics from Hong Kong.
13/15
Tonight’s Social Activities… Twilight: Jewellery: Demystifying diamonds
Tuesday, 20 Sep, 18:00–19:30, Track 7, M/F, Grand Hyatt Hotel
Join the designers and gem specialists from Haywards of Hong Kong for an
introduction into the fascinating world of diamonds, gems and fine jewellery
design. Haywards will offer an insider’s guide to diamond and gem buying, discuss
diamonds and jewellery as investment opportunities and offer interesting facts
related to the jewellery industry as well as explain the jewellery-making process.
Evening: Dine around town
Tuesday, 20 Sep, 19:00 till late
Let us take you into the heart of Lan Kwai Fong (LKF), to the revamped California
Tower, where you can dine at the hottest new restaurants in town. After dinner,
join us for more drinks and great music at Ciao Chow on the ground floor of the
tower.
Buses depart from the Grand Hyatt lobby at 10-minute intervals from 18:30.
Return buses start from 21:30.
Restaurants:
Ciao Chow, G/F, California Tower, 30-32 D'Aguilar Street
Hosts: CLSA Asean
Ciao Chow brings diners premium Italian farm-to-table artisan food, specific-blend
Italian espresso and craft beer and wine from Italy and around the globe to Hong
Kong.
Jinjuu, UG, California Tower, 30-32 D'Aguilar Street Hosts: CLSA China, Hong Kong
Founded by celebrity chef Judy Joo, Jinjuu features modern renditions of
classic Korean dishes.
Mercato, 8/F, California Tower, 30-32 D'Aguilar Street Host: CLSA Americas
A vibrant family-styled Italian restaurant by three-Michelin-starred chef Jean-
Georges Vongerichten
Porterhouse by Laris, 7/F, California Tower, 30-32 D'Aguilar Street Hosts: CLSA Australia, UK
This upscale steakhouse brought by David Laris serves excellent steaks with
extensive wine list to match.
The Great Indian Kebab Factory, 19/F Wellington Place, 2-8 Wellington Street Host: CLSA India
TGIKF brings contemporary yet authentic Indian cuisine with a strong focus on
delectable kebabs.
Townhouse, 23/F, California Tower, 30-32 D'Aguilar Street
Host: CLSA Korea, Taiwan, Japan
Enjoy a diverse variety of innovative food and cocktails at this trendy gathering
spot in Hong Kong.
14/15
Tomorrow… Wednesday Keynotes
Incognito: The secret lives
of the brain David Eagleman Professor, Stanford University
08:00-09:30 Wednesday, Breakfast Keynote, Track 1, Grand Ballroom, LL
If the conscious mind - the part you consider you - accounts for only a
fraction of the brain's function, what is all the rest doing? This is the question
that David Eagleman has spent years researching and which he answers in
this up-to-the-minute talk, chock-full of verve, wit and startling new
discoveries. Our behaviour, thoughts, and experiences are inseparably linked
to a vast, wet, chemical-electrical network called the nervous system. The
machinery is utterly alien to us, and yet, somehow, it is us. Eagleman takes
us into the depths of the subconscious to answer some of our deepest
mysteries. Why does the conscious mind know so little about itself? What do
Ulysses and the subprime-mortgage meltdown have in common? Why is it so
difficult to keep a secret? Eagleman charts new terrain in neuroscience and
helps us understand how our perceptions of ourselves and our world result
from the hidden workings of the most wondrous thing we have ever
discovered: the human brain.
Eagleman is a daring young scientist who provides a new understanding of
our brains - and ourselves. As a speaker, this Guggenheim Fellow and New
York Times bestselling author is energising, edifying and able to connect
scientific discovery to any field. He’s the writer and host of the PBS series The
Brain with David Eagleman: a six-hour international event on what it means
to be human. This television series tells the story of the inner workings of the
brain and take viewers on an epic, visually stunning journey into why we feel
and think the things we do.
A conversation with Drew Barrymore Drew Barrymore Actor, producer and brand creator
12:30-14:00 Wednesday, Luncheon Keynote, Track 1, Grand Ballroom, LL
In a conversation with CLSA clients on Wednesday, Drew Barrymore, who
stole movie-goers hearts at the age of six in the Steven Spielberg blockbuster
E.T. the Extra Terrestrial, will discuss her astounding 35-year career as an
actor, producer, director, philanthropist and businesswoman.
Besides her well-known award-winning acting career, Barrymore co-founded
Flower Films in 1995, a production company behind many of the films in
which she has appeared including Never Been Kissed, Charlie’s Angels, Fifty
First Dates and He’s Just Not That Into You. In 2013, Drew created Flower
Beauty, a line of affordable colour cosmetics using prestige formulas sold
exclusively at Walmart in North America. Flower Eyewear, Flower Fragrances
and Body Mists have followed. To quote Barrymore directly, she not only
creates products for the outside but ‘a little something for the inside’, thus
Barrymore Wines was formed with powerhouse vintners Jackson Family Wines
in Northern California. In late 2015, Drew also became a New York Times
bestselling author with her book, Wildflower.
15/15
The optimism bias: A tour of the
irrationally positive brain Tali Sharot Director, Affective Brain Lab
17:00-18:00 Wednesday, Closing Keynote, Track 1, Grand Ballroom, LL
Tali Sharot is a leading expert on human decision-making, optimism and
emotion. A neuroscientist by trade, Sharot combines research in psychology,
behavioural economics and neuroscience to reveal the forces that shape our
decisions, beliefs and inaccurate expectations of the future and how those can
be altered (or sustained). Why do people discount bad news (a tendency that
contributed to the 2008 financial downfall or enhances ill-preparedness in the
face of disaster and reduced medical screenings)? Why do we have unrealistic
expectations of the future (underestimating our chances of divorce and
expecting our kids to be uniquely talented)? Why is it so difficult to change a
decision after it is made? Sharot, a visiting professor at MIT, is also an
associated professor of Cognitive Neuroscience at University College London
where she directs the Affective Brain Lab. Her team is dedicated to answering
such questions with an aim at identifying ways to encourage behavioural
change that enhance well-being.
Sharot is the author of The Optimism Bias: A Tour of the Irrationally Positive
Brain (Pantheon/Random House, 2011, published in 10 additional countries);
The Science of Optimism (TED, e-book) and coeditor of The Neuroscience of
Preference and Choice (Elsevier). She has been featured on CNN, MSNBC,
The Science Channel, the Today show, the BBC and many publications around
the world. Sharot also co-presented BBC’s Science Club (BBC 2). She wrote
TIME magazine’s cover story The Science of Optimism (May, 2011) as well as
cover stories for The Observer Review, The Guardian, The Washington Post
Health Section and a New York Times Op-Ed (Major Delusions, 2011).
Tomorrow’s Social Activities…
Twilight: Energy management: Energy renewal
Wednesday, 21 Sep,18:00-19:30, Track 7, M/F, Grand Hyatt Hotel
Time is a limited resource but personal energy is renewable. Learn how to foster
deceptively-simple rituals that could help you and your team to regularly replenish
your energy and build better physical, emotional and mental resilience at work
and at home. Get more energy back into your day, finish your tasks with ease and
spend more quality time with your family and friends. Judith Coulson is a certified
corporate wellness specialist and international nutrition and lifestyle consultant.
Twilight: Redress: Frontline Fashion – Exclusive documentary screening
Wednesday, 21 Sep,18:30-20:30, The Annex, Unit 6, 2/F, Nan Fung Place,
173 Des Voeux Road Central
Join Redress Founder, Christina Dean, for an exclusive screening of 'Frontline
Fashion'. 'Frontline Fashion' is Redress' first feature-length documentary, following
ten emerging sustainable fashion designers from Asia and Europe who are
determined to change the future of fashion. Refreshments will be provided plus
there will be an opportunity to meet some of the finalists of The EcoChic Design
Award 2015/16 featured in the documentary. Spaces are limited. Bus departs
from the Grand Hyatt lobby at 18:15.
Presentation schedule as of September 19, 2016
Grand Hyatt Hong Kong, 19-23 September 2016
CLSA Limited Schedule is subject to changes as necessary
18/F One Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong Tel: +852 2600 8888, Fax: +852 2530 0827, Email: [email protected], www.clsa.com
TUE
TRACK 08.00 - 09.30 09.30 - 10.30 10.30 - 11.30 11.30 - 12.30 12.30 - 14.00 14.00 - 15.00 15.00 - 16.00 16.00 - 17.00 17.00 - 18.00
1
The lucky years:
How to thrive in the
brave new world of
health¹a²
David Agus,
University of
Southern California
The great surge: Ascent of the
developing world²
Steve Radelet, Georgetown
University
Stock connect and beyond:
HKEx strategic update2
Charles Li, Hong Kong
Exchanges & Clearing
China internet and telecoms
undergoing structural rerating²
Elinor Leung, CLSA
The rise of data
religion¹²
Yuval Noah Harari,
Hebrew University
of Jerusalem
Mission(im)possible: Bad-
debt collection in China²
Phil Groves, DAC
Management
Putting big data in its place:
Understanding cities and
human mobility with new
data sources²
Jameson Toole, Wherehouse,
Inc.
Clean disruption or
evolution? Solar,
batteries, and changing
utility models²
Jonathan Weisgall,
Berkshire Hathaway
Energy
Computation, AI,
robotics, and the
transformation of
practically
everything¹²
Daniela Rus, MIT
2 CSL
(AU pharma/biotech)
Honeywell China/Honeywell
Technology Solutions
( CN Industrials)
Are exchange-traded funds (ETFs)
the enemy for active investors?23
Tobias Bland, EIP
Mando/Halla
(KR automotive)
PT Bank Mandiri
(ID banks/financial)
Yes Bank
(IN banks/financial)
3 Housing Development
Finance Corp
(IN banks/financial)
China Telecom
(CN telecommunication)
China Vanke
(CN property)
Bharti Infratel
(IN telecommunication)
Idea Cellular
(IN telecommunication)
Global commodities -
Surprising strength²
Andrew Driscoll, CLSA
4 Live wires: Utilities confront
clean-tech disruption²
Rajesh Panjwani, CLSA
Fortescue Metals Group
(AU materials)
Challenger
(AU Diversified Fin.)
China Shenhua Energy
(CN materials)
Clean take off: Mission and
money align to back Asia's
green economy2
Tessa Tennant, NDC Finance
& Calvin Quek, Greenpeace
East Asia's Sustainable
Finance Program
CG watch 2016²
Jamie Allen, ACGA &
Shaun Cochran &
Charles Yonts & Philip
Whalley, CLSA
5 PLDT
(PH telecommunication)
Malaysia strategy: Fear of
missing out²
AC Tan, CLSA
Pacific Basin
(HK transportation)
Smidcaps and moats²
Amar Gill & Timothy Lee,
CLSA
Xinyi Glass
(HK materials)
Sino-Thai Engineering &
Construction
(TH Property)
6
A tale of two cities: how Stock
Connect reshapes Hong Kong
and Shenzhen² - Franky
Chung, Hong Kong²
Franky Chung, Hong Kong
Exchange & Clearing & Huiqi
Pei, Shenzhen Stock
Exchange
Beyond the hype: Real
applications of blockchain
technology in capital markets,
trade finance, & other uses: An
introduction & status update2
Justin Dombrowski, PwC
Saudi Arabia: New realities²
Chris Davidson, Durham University
Two whales and a heli²
Nicholas Smith, CLSA
Snuffing puff- Banks trigger
housing slowdown²
Brian Johnson & David
Murphy & Sholto Maconochie
& Andrew Johnston, CLSA
Universal Display
(US technology)
7 Global Logistic Properties
(SG property)
WHA Corporation
(TH property)
PChome online
(TW technology)
First Pacific
(HK conglomerates)
Macau Legend Development
(HK gaming/hotel/leisure)
Mitra Keluarga
(ID pharma/Biotech)
WED
TRACK 08.00 - 09.30 09.30 - 10.30 10.30 - 11.30 11.30 - 12.30 12.30 - 14.00 14.00 - 15.00 15.00 - 16.00 16.00 - 17.00 17.00 - 18.00
1
Incognito: The
secret lives of the
brain¹²
David Eagleman,
Stanford University
The future of li-ion battery
technology²
Gerbrand Ceder, University of
California, Berkeley
Shadow gang - Banking reform
gone wrong²
Francis Cheung, CLSA
Investment considerations during
periods of energy transition²
Peter Tertzakian, ARC Financial Corp
A conversation
with Drew
Barrymore
Tesla Motors
(US automotive)
Virtual reality: Towards the
tipping point²
Rahat Ahmad, Trinity VR
The new age of
automation²
Nicholas Carr, Author
The optimism
bias: A tour of
the irrationally
positive brain²
Tali Sharot,
Affective Brain
Lab
2 Sydney Airport
(AU Airport)
7-Eleven Malaysia
(MA retail)
Silicon Motion Technology
(TW electronics/tech)
Dialog Axiata
(SL telecommunication)
Bangkok Airways Public
(TH Airlines)
Triple Treat: Indonesia,
Philippines and Vietnam²
Anthony Nafte, CLSA
3 And now, the walk!²
Alfred Dy, CLSA
Singapore Telecommunications
(SG telecommunication)
Choosing lanes2
Geoff Boyd & Abhijeet Naik & Alexious
Lee & Emmanuel Rosner, CLSA
Gaining traction²
Rajeev Malik, CLSA
What’s next for Korea’s export?²
Paul Choi, CLSA EM back in vogue²
Laurence Balanco, CLSA
4 Anta Sports
(CN consumer)
HDFC Bank
(IN banks/financial)
China Unicom
(CN telecommunication)
My mum’s throne room:
Flushing your way into Asia’s
middle class²
Dave McCaughan,
Bibliosexual Ltd
Ascendas Reali Investment
Trust
(SG Property)
Stockland Corporation
(AU property)
5 Sun Hung Kai Properties
(HK property)
Swire Pacific
(HK conglomerates)
CH. Karnchang Public
(TH property)
Hang Seng Bank
(HK banks/financial)
SMI Holdings
(HK consumer)
Minor International
(TH food/beverage/
tobacco)
6 China healthcare - A gap-
year happiness²
Serena Shao, CLSA
Chevron
(US chemicals/oil/gas)
Make HK & Macau great again²
Aaron Fischer, CLSA
Asian properties - A hidden
yield story²
Nicole Wong, CLSA
Asian banks overview: Trends
and major stock picks²
Brian Johnson & Brian
Waterhouse & Aashish Agarwal
& Asheefa Sarangi & Patricia
Cheng, CLSA
The lithium-ion supply chain
in an energy storage
revolution²
Simon Moores, Benchmark
Mineral Intelligence
7 StarHub
(SG telecommunication)
Sri Lanka strategy: Poised for
revival²
Sanjeewa Fernando, CT CLSA
Securities
PT Adaro Energy
(ID materials)
China Maple Leaf
Educational
(CN miscellaneous)
Ayala Corp
(PH conglomerates)
Tingyi (Cayman Islands)
(CN consumer)
Presentation schedule as of September 19, 2016
Grand Hyatt Hong Kong, 19-23 September 2016
CLSA Limited Schedule is subject to changes as necessary
18/F One Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong Tel: +852 2600 8888, Fax: +852 2530 0827, Email: [email protected], www.clsa.com
THU
TRACK 08.00 - 09.30 09.30 - 10.30 10.30 - 11.30 11.30 - 12.30 12.30 - 14.00 14.00 - 15.00 15.00 - 16.00 16.00 - 17.00 17.00 - 18.00
1
Is the Era of
American Global
Power Over?¹²
Jeffrey Goldberg,
The Atlantic
China’s slowdown: Neither a
bull nor a bear be²
Simon Rabinovitch, The
Economist
Corporate political risk in a
fragmenting world economy²
Simon Evenett, University of St
Gallen
All your beta are belong to us: The alpha
to omega panel discussion on active
and passive investment strategies²
Brian Roberts, HKEX & Thomas
Poullaouec, State Street Global Advisors
(US) & Christopher Chua, Eastspring
Investments & Stephen Hull, Blackrock
Solutions & Mark Brady, CLSA
The rise of Clinton,
the fall of Trump,
and the worst
election²
Frank Luntz, Luntz
Global Partners
What the migration crisis
means for the future of the
EU²
John Springford, Centre for
European Reform
Spring chicken: Stay young
forever (or die trying)²
Bill Gifford, Author
Line Corporation
(JP
Internet/e=Commer/SW)
A behavioral
perspective on
decision making
and policy¹²
Eldar Shafir,
Princeton
University
2 Ezion
(SG miscellaneous)
Telekom Malaysia
(MA telecommunication)
Nameson Holdings
(HK consumer)
Reddot.com: Future-proofing
the Singapore economy in
an age of disruption²
Jonathan Galligan, CLSA
Rosneft
(RU chemical/oil/gas)
Recharge²
Joelian Tseng, CLSA
3
Domestic dilemma: migrant
workers in Asia’s world city²
Kay McArdle, PathFinders &
Lenlen Mesina, Enrich
Living with the new normal: Asian
oil and gas opportunities amid a
rebalancing market²
Narongpand Lisahapanya &
Nelson Wang & Ken Shin & Vikash
Kumar Jain, CLSA
HCL Technologies
(IN internet/e-commerce/SW)
Australia - top investment
opportunities²
Scott Ryall, CLSA
Thailand strategy²
Suchart Techaposai, CLSA
Samsonite International
(HK consumer)
4 AirAsia Berhad
(MA airlines)
Airtac International Group
(TW industrials)
Road(s) to prosperity²
Sarina Lesmina, CLSA
Shenzhou International
Group
(CN consumer)
Political developments in
Malaysia leading up the general
election2
Ibrahim Suffian, Merdeka Centre
RGI: the new measurement
of return for gender
inclusion in the work place²
Karen See & Sharn Bedi,
{embrace} worldwide
5 PT Semen Gresik
(ID materials)
Security Bank
(PH banks/financial)
Oil Search
(AU chemicals/oil/gas)
Sanofi S.A
(FR healthcare)
Wharf
(HK conglomerates)
New World Development
(HK property)
6 e-liftoff 2: Indonesia leading
the e-commerce pack²
Paul McKenzie, CLSA
Vietnam: Poised for breakout²
Dominic Scriven & Bill Stoops,
Dragon Capital
Sustainability, power and China²
Charles Yonts, CLSA
All about 5G²
William Rojas, William Benton
& Associates
Hutchison China MediTech
(HK healthcare)
Fuel cells: Growing
shipments and
strengthening supply
chains²
David Hart, E4tech
7 Makalot Industrial
(TW consumer)
Hemas Holdings
(SL conglomerates)
Link REIT
(HK property)
Metro Pacific
(PHI Conglomerates)
Rakuten
(JP internet/e-commerce/SW) ABS-CBN Broadcasting
(PH media/broadcasting)
FRI
TRACK 09.00 - 10.00 10.00 - 11.00 11.00 - 12.00 12.00 - 13.00 13.00 - 14.30
1 Cooks & chefs: What it means to be a true
original²
Tim Urban, Wait But Why
Behavioural fund manager selection²³
Herman Brodie, Prospecta
Behavioural fund manager selection²³
(Continued)
Herman Brodie, Prospecta
Fintech and regtech: Transforming Asian finance and
regulation?23
Douglas Arner, University of Hong Kong
Can blind academics lead the blind public? Will they
not both fall into the abyss¹a²³
Marc Faber, Marc Faber Ltd
¹ Session is open to media. | ¹a Open to media via live feed. Media should proceed to Track 2. | ² Eligible for a certificate of attendance. | ³ CFA Institute has approved this program, 1-1.5 CE credit hours. If you are a CFA Institute member, CE credit for
your participation in this program will be automatically recorded in your CE tracking tool. | Please note that CPT points can only be granted by delegate’s internal compliance department.