D MITH PRESIDENT & COO BENPOSIUM 2012 - Keyera · PDF file»NGL facilities...

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BENPOSIUM 2012 DAVID G. SMITH PRESIDENT & COO

Transcript of D MITH PRESIDENT & COO BENPOSIUM 2012 - Keyera · PDF file»NGL facilities...

Page 1: D MITH PRESIDENT & COO BENPOSIUM 2012 - Keyera · PDF file»NGL facilities –Fractionation, ... Current Yield2: 4.8% 1 Basic shares outstanding at April 30, ... •Unit train capability

BENPOSIUM 2012

DAVID G. SMITH – PRESIDENT & COO

Page 2: D MITH PRESIDENT & COO BENPOSIUM 2012 - Keyera · PDF file»NGL facilities –Fractionation, ... Current Yield2: 4.8% 1 Basic shares outstanding at April 30, ... •Unit train capability

Forward Looking Information

In the interests of providing Keyera Corp. (“Keyera” or the “Company”) shareholders and potential investors with

information regarding Keyera, including Management’s assessment of future plans and operations relating to the

Company, this document contains certain statements and information that are forward-looking statements or

information within the meaning of applicable securities legislation, and which are collectively referred to herein as

“forward-looking statements". Forward-looking statements in this document include, but are not limited to statements

and tables (collectively “statements”) with respect to: capital projects and expenditures; strategic initiatives; anticipated

producer activity and industry trends; and anticipated performance. Readers are cautioned not to place undue

reliance on forward-looking statements, as there can be no assurance that the plans, intentions or expectations upon

which they are based will occur. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve numerous assumptions, as well as

known and unknown risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, that contribute to the possibility that the

predictions, forecasts, projections and other forward-looking statements will not occur and which may cause Keyera’s

actual performance and financial results in future periods to differ materially from any estimates or projections of future

performance or results expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. These assumptions, risks and

uncertainties include, among other things: Keyera’s ability to successfully implement strategic initiatives and whether

such initiatives yield the expected benefits; future operating results; fluctuations in the supply and demand for natural

gas, NGLs, crude oil and iso-octane; assumptions regarding commodity prices; activities of producers, competitors

and others; the weather; assumptions around construction schedules and costs, including the availability and cost of

materials and service providers; fluctuations in currency and interest rates; credit risks; marketing margins; potential

disruption or unexpected technical difficulties in developing new facilities or projects; unexpected cost increases or

technical difficulties in constructing or modifying processing facilities; Keyera’s ability to generate sufficient cash flow

from operations to meet its current and future obligations; its ability to access external sources of debt and equity

capital; changes in laws or regulations or the interpretations of such laws or regulations; political and economic

conditions; and other risks and uncertainties described from time to time in the reports and filings made with securities

regulatory authorities by Keyera. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of important factors is not exhaustive.

The forward-looking statements contained in this document are made as of the date of this document or the dates

specifically referenced herein. For additional information please refer to Keyera’s public filings available on SEDAR at

www.sedar.com. All forward-looking statements contained in this document are expressly qualified by this cautionary

statement.

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Providing Essential Services to Producers

Keyera – One of Canada’s Largest Midstream Operators

» Natural gas gathering and

processing

– Focused in western part of Western

Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB)

» NGL facilities

– Fractionation, storage,

transportation and terminalling

» Marketing

– Propane, butane, condensate,

iso-octane

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Track Record of Stability and Growth

Company Snapshot

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Trading Symbols (TSX): KEY; KEY.DB.A

Common Shares Outstanding1: 76,727,195

Share Price2: $42.40

Market Capitalization2: $3.3B

Enterprise Value2: $3.8B

Trading Volume3: 302,545

Monthly Dividend: $0.17

Current Yield2: 4.8% 1 Basic shares outstanding at April 30, 2012. 2 Based on closing share price at May 9, 2012. 3 First quarter 2012 daily average.

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Creating Value through Business Integration 5

Two Integrated Business Lines

Propane

NGL Infrastructure NGL Marketing

Gathering &

Compression

Sales

Gas

NGL

Mix

Raw Gas

Processing

NGL Storage

Terminalling

Butane

Condensate

End-use

Customers

Wholesalers

Refineries

Petrochemicals

» 52% of 2011 Operating Margin*

» Fee-for-service revenues

» Largely flow-through operating

costs

» Essential service for producers

Ethane

Liquids Business Unit

NGL Fractionation

* Non-GAAP measure. See Keyera’s Year End 2011 MD&A for a definition of Operating Margin.

AEF

Iso-octane

» 23% of 2011 Operating Margin*

» Fee-for-service revenues

» No frac spread exposure

» 25% of 2011 Operating Margin*

» Margin business

» No frac spread exposure

Gathering &

Processing

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Gathering and Processing – Franchise Facilities West of 5th Meridian

» Large flexible gas processing plants

– Operate 15 of 17 gas plants

– Licensed capacity of 2.6 bcf/d

– NGL extraction

– Sweet and sour gas processing capability

» Extensive gathering systems

– Large capture areas create franchise regions

» Long life assets

» Fee-for-service revenues with no commodity exposure

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NGL Infrastructure – Positioned for Growth

» Providing services to NGL & bitumen

producers at Canada’s energy hub

– Fractionating NGL mix into ethane,

propane, butane and condensate

– Storing NGLs, including diluent

– Transporting NGLs to and from the

Edmonton/Fort Saskatchewan hub

– Rail and truck terminalling to load and

offload NGLs and other liquids

– Manufacturing iso-octane

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Fractionation

(80,000 bbls/d)

Storage

(10.9 million bbls)

Pipelines

(7) Rail Cars

(800+)

Sales Terminals

Rail & Truck Racks

(19)

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Strategic NGL Infrastructure in Edmonton/Fort Saskatchewan

Edmonton Terminal

• Logistics & transportation hub

• Pipeline control centre

• Rail and truck terminal

• Above ground storage

• Multiple pipeline connections

• Oil midstream business

Fort Saskatchewan

• 30,200 bbls/d fractionation capacity

• Pipeline system to & from Edmonton

market hub

• 10.6 million bbls of underground

storage in 11 caverns

• Potential to add 9 additional caverns

• Storage expansion program underway

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Adding Value along the NGL Value Chain

Strategic NGL Infrastructure In Edmonton/Fort Saskatchewan

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Alberta Diluent Terminal

(ADT)

Alberta EnviroFuels

(AEF)

• Condensate & solvent distribution

terminal

• 20 car rail offloading

• 200 car rail yard

• Unit train capability

• Connected to CP and CN railways

• Above ground storage

• Ability to offload up to 50,000 bbls/d

• Truck loading & offloading

• Largest iso-octane plant in North America

• Produces up to 14,000 bbls/d iso-octane

from butane feedstock

• Pipeline connected to Edmonton

Terminal, ADT, Suncor refinery & Kinder

Morgan TransMountain Pipeline

• Rail & truck loading via Edmonton

Terminal (Q4 2012)

• 80 acres of undeveloped land

Page 10: D MITH PRESIDENT & COO BENPOSIUM 2012 - Keyera · PDF file»NGL facilities –Fractionation, ... Current Yield2: 4.8% 1 Basic shares outstanding at April 30, ... •Unit train capability

As U.S. Natural Gas Production has Grown, Canadian Production has Declined

Natural Gas & NGL Outlook – A Canadian Perspective

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Source: Bentek

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… But the Outlook Is Shifting

NGL Production Has Also Declined …

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0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Gas P

rod

. (mm

cfd)

NG

L (B

pd

) Alberta Natural Gas and NGL Production

NGL (Bpd) Gas Prod. (mmcfd)

Source: ERCB

Largest 70 plants in Alberta, including straddle and ethane extraction facilities

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Canada’s Gas Development Is Beginning to Recover

Drilling Activity – Canada vs. U.S.

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Source: Baker Hughes

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112012YTD

Canada 361 215 220 119 148 140 138

U.S. 1372 1466 1491 801 943 887 695

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Average Gas Rig Counts

Canada U.S.

» Drilling activity in Canada

declined earlier than in U.S.

– Decline driven largely by

changes to Alberta royalty

regime in 2007, which have

since been fixed

» Canadian rig count has

stabilized in recent years

» Rig counts mask recent

shift to higher productivity

horizontal wells, focused on

liquids-rich horizons

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Canada’s Liquids-Rich Gas Development

» Renewed focus on liquids-rich

gas resource development in

WCSB

– Multiple well-understood

geological horizons

– High liquids content

– Improved Alberta royalty regime

– Application of technologies

– Access to available processing &

transportation capacity

» Tight gas plays – Cardium,

Glauconite, Montney

» Duvernay – significant potential

from deep shale

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MONTNEY

CARDIUM

DUVERNAY

GLAUCONITE

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Canadian Liquids-Rich Natural Gas – Competitive with U.S. Plays

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

$5.50

$6.00

$6.50

U.S. Shale Plays WCSB Plays

Liquids Content

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Breakeven Gas Price (US$/Mcf) Natural Gas Liquids (Bbl/Mmcf)

* Source: Peters & Co. Limited. Half-cycle break-even price, based on a 10% discount rate and full-year 2012 AECO-C: C$2.16/Mcf and C$95.39/barrel Edmonton par.

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Canada Is (Still) Important to North American Energy Scene!

Canadian Natural Gas & NGL Outlook

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» Canadian gas development will continue

– Substantial natural gas resource potential

– Economically attractive, with available processing & transportation

capacity

– Favourable regulatory environment

– Liquids-rich development focus

– Growing natural gas demand in western Canada, along with LNG

export projects, will compensate for declining exports to U.S.

» NGL production is expected to grow

– Implications for North American NGL markets will vary by product

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Ethane

» Petrochemical feedstock (polymers, chemicals, plastics)

» Canadian pricing typically based on negotiated margin over

gas price under long-term agreements (no spot market)

» Declining volume extracted at border straddle facilities

» Few buyers

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Page 17: D MITH PRESIDENT & COO BENPOSIUM 2012 - Keyera · PDF file»NGL facilities –Fractionation, ... Current Yield2: 4.8% 1 Basic shares outstanding at April 30, ... •Unit train capability

Propane

» Limited Canadian demand, primarily for heating fuel

» Approximately 60 to 70% exported to U.S.

» Significant seasonality of demand

» Strong demand for storage

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Page 18: D MITH PRESIDENT & COO BENPOSIUM 2012 - Keyera · PDF file»NGL facilities –Fractionation, ... Current Yield2: 4.8% 1 Basic shares outstanding at April 30, ... •Unit train capability

Propane Distribution Challenges

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• Midwest & eastern

markets served by

pipelines

• Cochin pipeline to be

“re-purposed” in 2013

• Western markets

reliant on rail supply

Page 19: D MITH PRESIDENT & COO BENPOSIUM 2012 - Keyera · PDF file»NGL facilities –Fractionation, ... Current Yield2: 4.8% 1 Basic shares outstanding at April 30, ... •Unit train capability

Butane

» Mostly consumed in Alberta (refineries, AEF, oil blending)

» Increasingly used as solvent by in situ bitumen producers

» Canadian supply shortfalls met by rail imports from U.S.

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Condensate

»Used as diluent for bitumen production from Canadian oil sands

»Significant & growing demand requires imports from U.S.

»Edmonton/Fort Saskatchewan is condensate logistics hub

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Page 21: D MITH PRESIDENT & COO BENPOSIUM 2012 - Keyera · PDF file»NGL facilities –Fractionation, ... Current Yield2: 4.8% 1 Basic shares outstanding at April 30, ... •Unit train capability

Diluent Required for Pipeline Movement

Bitumen Viscosity

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0

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

Vis

co

sit

y @

Ro

om

Te

mp

era

ture

(cP

)

Water

Olive

Oil

Pancake

Syrup

Honey

Ketchup

Cold Lake

Bitumen

Peanut

Butter

Athabasca

Bitumen

Light

Crude

Oil

Source: BP

Page 22: D MITH PRESIDENT & COO BENPOSIUM 2012 - Keyera · PDF file»NGL facilities –Fractionation, ... Current Yield2: 4.8% 1 Basic shares outstanding at April 30, ... •Unit train capability

Diluent Demand Growth Driving Condensate Imports

Bitumen Production Growth Drives Increasing Diluent Demand

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-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Condensate

Demand Forecast – Risked (MBbl/d)

Bitumen

Production Forecast – Risked (MBbl/d)

Source: Peters&Co.

In-situ

(SAGD, CSS, other thermal)

Mining

(bitumen, upgraded)

In-situ

(SAGD, CSS , other thermal)

Mining

(bitumen)

Page 23: D MITH PRESIDENT & COO BENPOSIUM 2012 - Keyera · PDF file»NGL facilities –Fractionation, ... Current Yield2: 4.8% 1 Basic shares outstanding at April 30, ... •Unit train capability

Edmonton/Fort Saskatchewan is Key Condensate Logistics Hub

Keyera’s Condensate Logistics

» Keyera’s fractionation, storage,

transportation & terminal facilities

provide hub services for bitumen

producers

» Long-term fee-for-service

agreements with Imperial Oil and

Husky for Kearl and Sunrise oil

sands projects

» Condensate imports by:

‒ Rail

‒ Enbridge Southern Lights Pipeline

(2010)

‒ Kinder Morgan Cochin Pipeline

(2013?)

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Page 24: D MITH PRESIDENT & COO BENPOSIUM 2012 - Keyera · PDF file»NGL facilities –Fractionation, ... Current Yield2: 4.8% 1 Basic shares outstanding at April 30, ... •Unit train capability

Meeting the Needs of Canadian Bitumen Producers

Condensate Infrastructure – Investing for the Future

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» Keyera and Enbridge have signed MOU to pursue diluent transportation initiatives

» Soliciting interest from oil sands producers to support construction of:

− South Cheecham Rail and Truck Terminal – enable receipt of diluent or solvents via railcar (Keyera 50%/Enbridge 50%)

− Norlite Pipeline – diluent pipeline from Fort Sask. to Athabasca oil sands region (Enbridge 70%/Keyera 30%)

Page 25: D MITH PRESIDENT & COO BENPOSIUM 2012 - Keyera · PDF file»NGL facilities –Fractionation, ... Current Yield2: 4.8% 1 Basic shares outstanding at April 30, ... •Unit train capability

In Summary …

»Canada continues to be a key

part of shifting North American

gas & NGL supply/demand

fundamentals

»Keyera is well positioned for:

− Growing production of

Canadian liquids-rich gas &

associated NGLs

− Growing diluent & solvent

logistics needs for Canadian

oil sands development

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Page 26: D MITH PRESIDENT & COO BENPOSIUM 2012 - Keyera · PDF file»NGL facilities –Fractionation, ... Current Yield2: 4.8% 1 Basic shares outstanding at April 30, ... •Unit train capability

For Further Information Contact:

John Cobb Director, Investor Relations

888-699-4853 [email protected]

KEYERA

600, 144 – 4TH AVENUE S.W.

CALGARY, ALBERTA

T2P 3N4

WWW.KEYERA.COM