Cyclone, Coastal Society and Migration: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh by Bishawit Mallick,...
-
Upload
adbsocialdevelopment -
Category
Documents
-
view
76 -
download
0
description
Transcript of Cyclone, Coastal Society and Migration: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh by Bishawit Mallick,...
KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Institute of Regional Science (IfR), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany
www.ifr.kit.edu
Researchers' Workshop on
Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the PacificAsian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines
Cyclone, Coastal Society and Migration: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh
Bishawjit Mallick
DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its
Board of Governors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any
consequence of their use. The countries listed in this paper do not imply any view on ADB's part as to sovereignty or independent status or necessarily conform to ADB's
terminology.
Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany2
Research Workshop
Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific
14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines
Content
Background context
Knowledge base and Research Question
Cyclone Aila
Empirical Note
Study area
Methods applied
Findings
Basic facts of empirical survey
Who, where and when moves out social clusters analysis
Consequences of moving out – social structural, bondage and relationship
Discussion and Conclusion
Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany3
Research Workshop
Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific
14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines
Knowledge Base & Research Question
More than 26 million people of Bangladesh are likely to migrate to
urban areas due to extreme poverty and displacement due to natural
hazards (Myers, 2002)
2 of each 5 households in rural Bangladesh move from their original
villages due to an economic pull (Afsar 2003)
Address “Social Exclusion or Inclusion”
Changes in SOCIAL STRUCTURE
Disasters and chronic environmental degradation Population
Movement (Hunter 2005, Ponchelet et al. 2010) push and pull
environmental push and economic pull
How a cyclone affect on people„s livelihood and the socio-
economic transformation of coastal Bangladesh?
Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany4
Research Workshop
Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific
14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines
Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany5
Research Workshop
Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific
14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines
Objectives
Overall:
How cyclone Aila affected on people„s livelihood and the socio-
economic transformation of coastal Bangladesh?
Specific:
Who are migrants and why? – analysis of socio-economic conditions of the
respondents
Which social groups are forced to move or displaced?
What are changes found in local social structure?
What can be an approach to mitigate such climatic displacement of the
people of sampled area?
Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany6
Research Workshop
Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific
14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines
Empirical Note
Study Area
12 villages of Shyamnagor
Upazila, Satkhira
134 km²
0.25 to 3.5 m high abobe
mean-sea level
85000 population
Survey
Random sampling
280 households interview
GPS survey
21 in-depth interview
Snow-ball sampling
Group discussion
Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany7
Research Workshop
Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific
14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines
Study area
Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany8
Research Workshop
Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific
14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines
Methods applied & Data Source
Data Type Unit Source
Socio-economic
dataper union
Upazila Statistics Office, Shyamnagor,
Satkhira, Bangladesh
Damages and
Losses due to
Cyclone Aila
per unionUpazila Statistics Office, Shyamnagor,
Satkhira, Bangladesh
Upazila Map per unionLGED, Ministry of Food and Disaster
Management, Bangladesh
Field SurveyHousehold
(HH) level
March – May 2010
- a total of 280 households survey,
- Group Discussion, and
- Geographical Data by using GPS
- Snow-Ball Sampling method
Combination of Quantitative and Qualitative methods of Data Collection
Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany10
Research Workshop
Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific
14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines
Results of Study
Move without family i.e. Male members of 35% (98 HH) of sampled HH moved nearer city within 3 weeks after the event Aila
Only 7% (20 HH) of sampled HH moved with their family
Total migrants families – 42% (118) of the sampled HH (280)
78% of them move to – Khulna, Satkhira and Bagerhat; 12% move to capital city Dhaka and 10% to Chittagong
Move with family (7%) – having links in city (66%) and rest have no link
Move without family (35%) – having links in city (36%) and then rest have no link
Damage cost appear to be positively correlated with HH income
Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany11
Research Workshop
Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific
14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines
Movement status by Religion, Income, Housing Condition,
Land and Social Status of the Male Respondents
A. Variables B. Characteristics
representative for the
respondents (% of all
interviewees)
C. Status of Respondents of
column B
Remarks
Migrated Not Migrated
Religion Muslim (89 %) 32.8 % 66.2 % Religious identity,
income
opportunities,
damages and
losses, land
ownership and
social images have
most influence on
the decision making
of migration or
temporary
movement.
Hindu (11 %) 52 % 48 %
Monthly Income Level
Before Cyclone Aila
< 30 US$ (32 %) 86 % 14 %
30 – 75 US$ (62 %) 58 % 42 %
>75 US$ (6 %) 19 % 81 %
Housing Condition
After Cyclone Aila
Fully Damaged (48.9 %) 44.5 % 55.5 %
Partially Damaged (36 %) 36.6 % 73.4 %
Land Status Land Owner (88 %) 51 % 49 %
Khas-Land Recipient (10 %) 32 % 68 %
Landless (2 %) 66.6 % 33.3 %
Participation in Social
Decision Making
(Social Status)
Yes (11 %) 0 100%
No (89 %) 55 % 45 %
Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany12
Research Workshop
Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific
14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines
Place and Time of Movement, Frequency of Family Visit
by respondents’ Income Status
Monthly
Income
Level (# of
Displaced
Respondent
)
Place of Movement (% of Respondents) Time of
Movement
Frequency of Family
Visits
Nearer Cities
(Khulna,
Satkhira,
Bagerhet) (78
%)
Dhaka
(Capital
City) (12 %)
Chittagong
(Port City)
(10%)
< 30US$
(31)
93.5 % 3.25 % 3.25 % < 4 weeks
after the
event
- 30% had visited at
least once after the
movement
- 60% had never visited
after the movement
- 10% have visited at
least twice or more
30 – 75 US$
(61)
77 % 13 % 10 % Within 4 to 8
weeks
after the
event> 75 US$ (6) 0 50 % 50 %
Income matters again!!!! „Economic Pull‟ Factors of movement???
Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany15
Research Workshop
Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific
14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines
Who were displaced/ migrated?
A) Monthly family income: less than US$ 30, US$ 30-75 and more than US$ 75
B) Land ownership: less than 0.10 Acre, 0.10-0.50 Acre and more than 0.50 Acre
C) Damage cost due to cyclone Aila: less than US$ 145, US$ 145 – 430 and more than US$430
Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany16
Research Workshop
Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific
14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines
Why displaced?
Variables used in PCAComponent Renamed variables/
component 1 2 3
Monthly income after Aila -.065 .005 .948 (3) Locally available
employment
opportunities Monthly expenditure after Aila -.042 .001 .949
Do you think you are better
prepared now to handle a
cyclone alike Aila?
.937 -.036 .014
(1) Individual
knowledge,
capability and
community
supports
What are the reasons that your
coping capability improved?.917 -.040 -.103
Do you have easy access to public
supports – cyclone shelter, relief
and rehabilitation works
.756 .010 -.043
Do you involved with micro-credit
program?-.026 1.000 .003
(2) Involvement with
micro-creditIf yes, precise numbers of your
loans-.026 1.000 .003
Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany18
Research Workshop
Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific
14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines
Consequences of displacement/ migration
Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany19
Research Workshop
Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific
14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines
Coping with problems
Problems they faces? –
insecurity of work and finances,
sub-standard housing,
lack of supports from the community,
traps of local politics i.e. insecurity
How they solve financial problems? –
borrowing from neighbors (25%),
co-workers (57%),
informal money lenders (18%)
seek access to other „micro-credit‟ organization vicious circle of credit
Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany24
Research Workshop
Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific
14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines
Other ways of coping
Pull rickshaw/ Van
Work in dockyard, train station or bus-stoppages as baggage bearers
Mostly started „begging‟
Sleeping on railway station, foot-path or bus-stoppages etc
Borrowing money from local informal money lenders
Avoid communication with their dependents at local
Women and children are more likely to work, etc.
Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany25
Research Workshop
Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific
14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines
Policy and Planning Outlook
Ensure more locally organized income opportunities, immediate after the end of relief-works
Appropriate measures for avoiding “vicious circle of credit” introduction of “Resource based Insurance Option” rather “multiplication of micro-loans” Example of Northern Kenya “Index base Livestock Insurance for Combating Drought (Barrett et al. 2010).
Empowerment of Local community based/ home-based industrial activities – if there is none of such industry, disaster mitigation managers should rethink about this.
Ensure participation of each and every family in rehabilitation activities i.e. earth work for reconstruction of embankments, cyclone shelter constructions, other (re-)construction or development activities etc.
Arrangement of institutional supports for the migrants both from the government and non-government organization during transition periods of displaced people.
Improvement of public supports services and climate change awarenessdevelopment programs
Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany27
Research Workshop
Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific
14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines
Acknowledgement
Research grants and Scholarships
Ph.D. Research Grant from “Catholic Academic Foreign Services
(KAAD), Germany [www.kaad.de]
Field Research Grant from “Karlsruhe House of Young Scientist
(KHYS) [www.khys.kit.edu]
Ph.D. Training Grant from “Graduate School of Climate and
Environment (GRACE)” [www.grace.kit.edu]
Guidance for this research
Dr. Cecilia Tacoli, IIED, London
Dr. Robert Mcleman, University of Ottawa, Canada
Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany28
Research Workshop
Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific
14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines
Thanks for your patience
&
Welcome for Discussion, Ideas and
Suggestions!