CW Research Global Cement Volume Forecast 1H2019 · • Covers 57 national cement markets Global...
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CW Group LLC | Connecticut, USA Global Cement Volume Forecast 1H2019 CW Research Webinar presentation Macro update Volume Forecast Closing remarks Metho- dology GCVFR outlook report About CW Group 1
Transcript of CW Research Global Cement Volume Forecast 1H2019 · • Covers 57 national cement markets Global...
CW Group LLC | Connecticut, USA
Global Cement Volume Forecast
1H2019
CW ResearchWebinar presentation
Macro
update
Volume
Forecast
Closing
remarks
Metho-
dology
GCVFR
outlook
report
About CW
Group
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and infrastructure
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Twice-per-year update of projections for cement
volumes at the national, regional and global level
• Informed by primary and secondary
research
• Covers 57 national cement markets
Global five-year forecast for cement market data by
market for core markets and long-term forecast by 2050
Analysis of individual cement markets, key
market-moving events, capacity changes,
drivers and outlook
Global Volume Forecast
Report: 1H2019
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CW qualitative
research
CW qualitative
researchCW qualitative
research
CW iterative
forecast &
revision
Global Cement
Volume Forecast
Report
Statistical
Analysis
Technical
Analysis
Bottom up
manufacturing
capacity
CW country
cement trade
analysis
Consumption Production Utilization
rate
GCVFR
Methodology
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What does it include?Contains the CW Group’s outlook
- National cement consumption
- Per capita cement consumption
- National cement production
- Industry-wide utilization rate
- Cement production capacity
Projections for volumes
- All world, all regions, 5 years and long-term forecast
- Details on 57 individual, key cement markets
Twice-yearly update
- March each year quantitative update
- October each year extended update (with qualitative analysis for key
countries)
For more details visit: https://www.cwgrp.com/research/research-products/product/12-global-cement-volume-forecast-report
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Subsequent revisions downgrade outlook for global economy
World Economic Outlook
(Real GDP, 2018 YoY % growth, IMF 2017, 2018 updates)
3,5%
1,5%
4,4%
1,3%
1,8%
3,3%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
Sub-saharan Africa
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan,and Pakistan
Emerging market and developingeconomies
Euro area
Advanced economies
World
April 2019 January 2019 October 2018
o Trade friction created the new barriers
imposed on the circulation of goods
between China and United States and
tighter financial conditions
o Lower consumer and business
confidence, uncertainty over Brexit and
the Italian debt and financial risks.
o Lower demand for commodities and
depreciation of local currencies
o Downgrade on oil prices and weak oil
output growth, US sanctions on Iran,
and geopolitical tensions
o Impact of lower oil prices in the
Angolan and Nigerian economies
Source: International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook9
CW Group LLC | Connecticut, USA
2018 change in cement demand for main markets (growth YoY%)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Cement demand in 2018
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Change in cement demand from 2013 through 2023(Consumption in million tons; per capita consumption in kg)
550
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F
China Consumption World Ex-China Consumption Global per capita
41864094
China will continue to lose share of global cement demand
4040
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Cement demand growth loses steam in 2019
2019F change in cement demand (growth YoY%)
11%
-6%
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Turkey’s cement market suffered the widest adjustment
2019F change in cement demand, forecast revision (growth YoY%)
-2% 3% 8% 13%
Spain
Poland
Thailand
India
Tunisia
Iran
South Korea
1H2019
2H2018
-12% -2% 8%
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Iraq
Hungary
United Kingdom
Kenya
China
1H2019
2H2018
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Africa and Asia Ex-China lead growth on cement demand
2018-2023 cement demand growth by region
(growth YoY%)
North America
Latin AmericaAfrica
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
Asia Ex-China
China
Middle East
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CW Group LLC | Connecticut, USA
2019 will witness the largest increment in capacity for the next five years2018- 2023F Capacity additions
(million tons, and % change)
-1,0%
1,0%
3,0%
5,0%
7,0%
1 500
2 500
3 500
2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F
Global Ex-China Capacity Net additions
-2,0%
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
5000
5500
6000
6500
2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F
Global Capacity Net additions
Global
Global
ex-
China
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CW Group LLC | Connecticut, USA
How will per capita consumption change by 2050?
China
Global ex-China
- 39%
+ 45%Cement
Demand
Cement
Consumption
per capita (kg)
2018 2050
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Email: [email protected]
• Robert Madeira, CW Managing
Director and Head of Research:
• Carolina Pereira, CW Business
Analyst: [email protected]
Website: www.cwgrp.com
Contact us Downward revisions on the
outlook of the global economy
raise fears of a new recession
Cement demand performed well in Asia ex-
China during 2018. The region is expected
to maintain its global prominence on
consumption growth at the global level
Capacity increase to decline
outside China after 2019, while
China continues to reduce its
output potential
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