CV Modeling - COVID-19 hospitalizations in New …...COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic Update A...
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic Update A NMDOH, Presbyterian, LANL, and SNL Partnership June 2, 2020
Transcript of CV Modeling - COVID-19 hospitalizations in New …...COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic Update A...
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic Update
A NMDOH, Presbyterian, LANL, and SNL PartnershipJune 2, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Prevalence: COVID-19 cases per 100,000 by U.S. states
As of June 2, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Prevalence Rate: Number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 5.31.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.
1714.3
80.8215.8
57.4182.8
330.3
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Case
s pe
r 100
,000
May 25, 2020
1896.3
89.6237.0
66.2206.4
365.8
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
May 31, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Prevalence: COVID-19 cases per 100,000 by NM county
As of June 1, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
New COVID-19 cases each weekNM-EDSS on 5/28/2020 at 1:58 PM
New cases during this week may not yet be reported
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Projected doubling time
Projected Doubling Time Based on Date of Test Specimen Collection and Cumulative Average Rate of Increase.Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 6.1.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
Metro, 10.0
Northeast, 13.1
Northwest, 7.6
Southeast, 13.9
Southwest, 11.3
New Mexico, 8.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
165/
2/20
205/
3/20
205/
4/20
205/
5/20
205/
6/20
205/
7/20
205/
8/20
205/
9/20
205/
10/2
020
5/11
/202
05/
12/2
020
5/13
/202
05/
14/2
020
5/15
/202
05/
16/2
020
5/17
/202
05/
18/2
020
5/19
/202
05/
20/2
020
5/21
/202
05/
22/2
020
5/23
/202
05/
24/2
020
5/25
/202
05/
26/2
020
5/27
/202
0
Num
ber o
f Day
s fo
r Cas
e Co
unt t
o D
oubl
e
Doubling time (day) on March 25, 2020
Southeast: 13.0
Northeast: 12.3
Southwest: 10.4
Metro: 9.4
New Mexico: 8.0
Northwest: 7.0
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Hospitalization Rate: Number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 6.1.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.
324.2
12.925.2
5.8 16.1
52.2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Hosp
italiz
atio
ns p
er 1
00,0
00 P
opul
atio
n
March 25, 2020
368.4
14.3 26.26.5 18.2
58.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
June 1, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
New COVID-19 hospitalizations each weekNM-EDSS on 5/28/2020 at 1:58 PM
New hospitalizations during this week may not yet be reported
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 hospitalizations and ventilator use
As of May 28, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 age-adjusted hospitalization rate by race/ethnicity per 100,000 population
NM-EDSS on 5/28/2020 at 1:58 PM
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Mortality Rate: Number of COVID-19 deaths per100,000 population
Rates have been age-adjusted to the U.S. 2000 standard population.Source: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 5.31.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.
52.3
0.74.8
0.5 2.1
13.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New Mexico
Dea
ths
per 1
00,0
00 P
opul
atio
n (a
ge-a
djus
ted)
New Mexico Health Region
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Crude death rate: COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 by U.S. states
As of June 2, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Case Fatality Rate: Percentage of COVID-19 cases resulting in death
Rates have been age-adjusted to U.S. COVID-19 cases.Source: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division, reporting through 5.31.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
6.9%
1.5%
6.3%
2.8%3.1%
6.0% 5.9%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New Mexico U.S.
Case
Fat
ality
Rat
e (a
ge-a
djus
ted)
New Mexico Health Region
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Case fatality rate: Percentage of COVID-19 cases resulting in death by U.S. states
As of June 2, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Key points• COVID-19 prevalence continues to increase across all regions in NM
o 23rd highest prevalence in the U.S.o Prevalence rates in age groups 15-44, 45-64, and 65+ are similaro AI/AN have highest burden of disease except in the SE o Percentages of total new cases each week have decreased in the Metro and NW, and increased in the SWo Doubling times for all regions continue to increase
• Hospitalization rates minimally increased across all regions except NW o Highest rates in McKinley, San Juan, Socorro, and Cibola counties (>50 cases/100,000)o NW region has the highest percentage of new hospitalizations each week and continues to increase, while
the Metro region is decreasingo Hospitalization rate is highest in the 85+ age groupo Ventilator use exceeded 30% last week; 32% as of 6/1/2020o AI/AN age-adjusted rate continues to increase, while other racial/ethnic groups have had minimal
increases
• Mortality rates and case-fatality rates (CFRs) are highest in the NW region followed by Metro Regiono 21st highest mortality rate and CFR (not age-adjusted) in the U.S.o NM CFR is similar to U.S. CFR after age-adjustment
CFRs in Metro, NE, and SE regions have decreased since last week, but NW and SW have increased (all minimal changes)
Both mortality rate and CFRs are highest in the age 85+ and AI/AN groups
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 in New Mexico: modeling update
As of June 1, 2020Epidemiology & Response Division
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
The effective rate of transmission for the state has continued to decrease.
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – June 1, 2020.
1.07
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
The Southeast region now has the highest rate of transmission at 1.13.
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – June 1, 2020.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Northeast R_effective1.10 ↑
Central R_effective1.05 ↓
Southeast R_effective 1.13 ↓
SouthwestR_effective 1.09 ↓
NorthwestR_effective 1.08 ↓ Low Level Endemic
1-1.1
Approaching Low Level Endemic1.11-1.15
Requiring further mitigation >1.15
Key
As of May 26, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Northwest percent positive tests continues to decrease.
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services - May 26, 2020.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Slight decrease in hospitalizations and ventilators over the past week.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Supplementary Slides
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Modeling Assumptions
Variable Measured Value Value as of 6.1.20
R_Effective Actual Measured Daily Value by key county
R_eff=1.07
Positive Test Multiplier Calculated by LANL 4.6
Hospitalization and Mortality Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected
Medical 0.3% ICU 0.3%Vent Rate 68.3% of ICUCrude Case Fatality Rate 4.6%
Length of Stay Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected
Medical 5 daysICU 14 days ICU on Vent 14 days
