Cut Off Strategies Presentation

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    CUTOFF & STRATEGIESPRESENTER: IOANNA ROUSSOU

    Bucharest, 20/10/2010

    Main Topics

    Cut Off Table

    Cut Off Objectives

    Profitability

    Profitability Considerations

    Practical Implications

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    Main Topics

    Cut Off Table

    Cut Off Objectives

    Profitability

    Profitability Considerations

    Practical Implications

    What is the result of a Score Development?

    A Score DistributionA Cut-Off Table

    Initial Step

    Score

    Total TTD -

    Applications

    Booked

    Expected

    Goods

    Expected

    Bads

    Interval

    Bad Rate

    G:B

    Odds TTD Above

    Approval

    Rate

    Bads

    Above

    Portfolio

    Bad Rate

    169 1,161 1,062 99 8.5% 10.8 52,536 67.5% 2,356 4.5%

    170 1,180 1,083 97 8.2% 11.2 51,375 66.0% 2,257 4.4%

    171 1,198 1,103 95 7.9% 11.6 50,195 64.5% 2,160 4.3%

    172 1,214 1,120 94 7.7% 12.0 48,997 62.9% 2,065 4.2%

    173 1,228 1,136 92 7.5% 12.4 47,783 61.3% 1,971 4.1%

    174 1,241 1,151 90 7.3% 12.8 46,555 59.7% 1,879 4.0%

    175 1,251 1,163 88 7.0% 13.2 45,314 58.1% 1,789 3.9%

    176 1,259 1,173 86 6.8% 13.7 44,063 56.5% 1,701 3.9%

    177 1,266 1,183 83 6.6% 14.2 42,804 54.9% 1,615 3.8%

    178 1,270 1,189 81 6.4% 14.7 41,538 53.3% 1,532 3.7%

    179 1,272 1,194 78 6.1% 15.2 40,268 51.6% 1,451 3.6%

    180 1,272 1,197 75 5.9% 16.0 38,996 50.0% 1,373 3.5%

    Expected Bads at

    this score

    Estimated Bad

    Rate at this score

    Estimated Good Bad Odds

    at this scoreNumber of

    Goods for each BadExpected TTD

    Applications at

    this score

    Number of

    Applications

    expected at this

    score and above

    Percent of

    Applications

    expected at this

    score and above

    Number of Bads

    expected at this

    score and above

    Cumulative Bad

    Rate at this

    score and above

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    Key Points

    Interval Bad Rate

    It is the bad rate at that specific score-only if you accept all applications at

    score 175

    Portfolio Bad Rate

    It is the bad rate of the whole portfolio-if you accept all applications from

    score 175 and above

    Interval vs Marginal Bad Rate

    Cumulative vs Portfolio Bad Rate

    Score

    Total TTD -

    Applications

    Booked

    Expected

    Goods

    Expected

    Bads

    Interval

    Bad Rate

    G:B

    OddsTTD Above

    Approval

    Rate

    Bads

    Above

    Portfolio

    Bad Rate

    173 1,228 1,136 92 7.5% 12.4 47,783 61.3% 1,971 4.1%

    174 1,241 1,151 90 7.3% 12.8 46,555 59.7% 1,879 4.0%

    175 1,251 1,163 88 7.0% 13.2 45,314 58.1% 1,789 3.9%

    176 1,259 1,173 86 6.8% 13.7 44,063 56.5% 1,701 3.9%

    177 1,266 1,183 83 6.6% 14.2 42,804 54.9% 1,615 3.8%

    ScoreTTD

    Applications

    Loss From

    Bads

    Revenue

    From Goods

    169 1,161 128,130 107,474

    170 1,180 125,541 109,600

    171 1,198 122,953 111,624

    172 1,214 121,659 113,344

    173 1,228 119,070 114,963174 1,241 116,482 116,481

    Cut Off table types

    Various versions in the industry:Score groups in ranges At Amount Level

    Observed Bad Rate vs. Predicted

    Score BandIncoming

    Applications

    Bad Rate per

    Band

    170 - 179 10% 15%

    180 - 189 10% 7%

    190 - 199 10% 4%

    200 209 10% 3%

    Score TTD Applications

    Interval Bad

    Rate

    (Predicted)

    Interval Bad

    Rate

    (Observed)

    169 1,161 8.50% 10.20%

    170 1,180 8.20% 9.02%

    171 1,198 7.90% 7.11%

    172 1,214 7.70% 6.93%

    173 1,228 7.50% 8.25%

    174 1,241 7.30% 8.76%

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    Key Question

    Bad Definition

    60+ with 18 average outcome period or

    90+ with 24 average outcome period

    What is my Loss Rate?

    X Bads Y Losses

    Is it included in the table?

    Relationship between Bad and Loss definition

    6% Bad Rate = 2% Loss Rate

    Cut-Off Objectives

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    Main Topics

    Cut Off Table

    Cut Off Objectives

    Profitability

    Profitability Considerations

    Practical Implications

    Objectives

    Book Better Customers

    What is a better customer?

    Reduce Losses

    Are less credit losses always good for the business?

    Increase Market Share

    Increase the approval ratewhat is optimal?

    Maximise Number of Automated Decisions

    Where is manual verification and assessment worthwhile?

    Increase Profits

    How do I measure profitability?

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    Objectives

    What is your aim in setting a Cut-Off?

    Cut-Off Table

    Score

    Total TTD -

    Applications

    Booked

    Expected

    Goods

    Expected

    Bads

    Interval

    Bad Rate G:B Odds TTD Above

    Approval

    Rate

    Bads

    Above

    Portfolio

    Bad Rate

    169 1,161 1,062 99 8.5% 10.8 52,536 67.5% 2,356 4.5%

    170 1,180 1,083 97 8.2% 11.2 51,375 66.0% 2,257 4.4%

    171 1,198 1,103 95 7.9% 11.6 50,195 64.5% 2,160 4.3%

    172 1,214 1,120 94 7.7% 12.0 48,997 62.9% 2,065 4.2%

    173 1,228 1,136 92 7.5% 12.4 47,783 61.3% 1,971 4.1%

    174 1,241 1,151 90 7.3% 12.8 46,555 59.7% 1,879 4.0%

    175 1,251 1,163 88 7.0% 13.2 45,314 58.1% 1,789 3.9%

    176 1,259 1,173 86 6.8% 13.7 44,063 56.5% 1,701 3.9%

    177 1,266 1,183 83 6.6% 14.2 42,804 54.9% 1,615 3.8%178 1,270 1,189 81 6.4% 14.7 41,538 53.3% 1,532 3.7%

    179 1,272 1,194 78 6.1% 15.2 40,268 51.6% 1,451 3.6%

    180 1,272 1,197 75 5.9% 16.0 38,996 50.0% 1,373 3.5%

    0.0%

    10.0%

    20.0%

    30.0%

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    50.0%

    60.0%

    70.0%

    80.0%

    90.0%

    100.0%

    0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% 2.0% 2.6% 3.4% 4.2% 5.1% 6.0% 6.7% 7.3% 7.6% 7.8%

    Approv

    alRate

    Portfolio Bad Rate

    Strategy Curve

    Strategy CurveCurrent Situation

    Current:

    Approval Rate: 56%

    Bad Rate: 5.2%

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    0.0%

    10.0%

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    0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% 2.0% 2.6% 3.4% 4.2% 5.1% 6.0% 6.7% 7.3% 7.6% 7.8%

    ApprovalRate

    Portfolio Bad Rate

    Strategy Curve

    Strategy CurveCurrent Situation

    Strategy Curve

    New Score

    Current:

    Approval Rate: 56%

    Bad Rate: 5.2%

    Setting Cut-Off-Application Scores

    Can set Cut-Off based on a single criteria - a target

    Approval Rate

    OR

    Portfolio Bad Rate

    A solution which is a compromise between the two

    I want to keep the Approval Rate above 55%

    But I dont want the Portfolio Bad Rate to be more than 5%

    Use Cut-Off Tables

    Simple

    Measurable

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    0.0%

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    50.0%

    60.0%

    70.0%

    80.0%

    90.0%

    100.0%

    0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% 2.0% 2.6% 3.4% 4.2% 5.1% 6.0% 6.7% 7.3% 7.6% 7.8%

    ApprovalRate

    Portfolio Bad Rate

    Strategy Curve

    Strategy CurveMaintain Bad Rate

    Current:

    Approval Rate: 56%

    Bad Rate: 5.2%

    0.0%

    10.0%

    20.0%

    30.0%

    40.0%

    50.0%

    60.0%

    70.0%

    80.0%

    90.0%

    100.0%

    0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% 2.0% 2.6% 3.4% 4.2% 5.1% 6.0% 6.7% 7.3% 7.6% 7.8%

    Approv

    alRate

    Portfolio Bad Rate

    Strategy Curve

    New:

    Approval Rate: 78.2%

    Bad Rate: 5.2%

    Strategy CurveMaintain Bad Rate

    Current:

    Approval Rate: 56%

    Bad Rate: 5.2%

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    ObjectivesMaintain Bad Rate

    What is your aim in setting a Cut-Off?

    Cut-Off Table

    Score

    Total TTD -

    Applications

    Booked

    Expected

    Bads

    Expected

    Goods

    Interval

    Bad Rate G:B Odds TTD Above

    Approval

    Rate

    Bads

    Above

    Portfolio

    Bad Rate

    155 773 101 672 13.1% 6.7 66,057 84.7% 3,786 5.7%

    156 804 102 702 12.6% 6.9 65,284 83.7% 3,685 5.6%

    157 835 101 735 12.0% 7.3 64,480 82.7% 3,583 5.6%

    158 866 102 764 11.8% 7.5 63,645 81.6% 3,483 5.5%

    159 897 103 794 11.5% 7.7 62,779 80.5% 3,381 5.4%

    160 927 103 824 11.1% 8.0 61,882 79.3% 3,277 5.3%

    161 957 104 853 10.9% 8.2 60,954 78.2% 3,174 5.2%

    162 986 104 883 10.5% 8.5 59,997 76.9% 3,070 5.1%

    163 1,015 104 911 10.2% 8.8 59,010 75.7% 2,966 5.0%

    164 1,042 103 939 9.9% 9.1 57,996 74.4% 2,863 4.9%

    165 1,068 103 966 9.6% 9.4 56,954 73.0% 2,759 4.8%

    166 1,093 102 992 9.3% 9.7 55,886 71.7% 2,657 4.8%

    0.0%

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    100.0%

    0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% 2.0% 2.6% 3.4% 4.2% 5.1% 6.0% 6.7% 7.3% 7.6% 7.8%

    Approv

    alRate

    Portfolio Bad Rate

    Strategy Curve

    Strategy CurveMaintain Approval Rate

    Current:

    Approval Rate: 56%

    Bad Rate: 5.2%

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    0.0%

    10.0%

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    70.0%

    80.0%

    90.0%

    100.0%

    0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% 2.0% 2.6% 3.4% 4.2% 5.1% 6.0% 6.7% 7.3% 7.6% 7.8%

    ApprovalRate

    Portfolio Bad Rate

    Strategy Curve

    New:

    Approval Rate: 56%

    Bad Rate: 3.9%

    Strategy CurveMaintain Approval Rate

    Current:

    Approval Rate: 56%

    Bad Rate: 5.2%

    Objectives - Maintain Approval Rate

    What is your aim in setting a Cut-Off?

    Cut-Off Table

    Score

    Total TTD -

    Applications

    Booked

    Expected

    Bads

    Expected

    Goods

    Interval

    Bad Rate G:B Odds TTD Above

    Approval

    Rate

    Bads

    Above

    Portfolio

    Bad Rate

    170 1,180 97 1,083 8.2% 11.2 51,375 65.9% 2,256 4.4%

    171 1,198 95 1,103 8.0% 11.6 50,194 64.4% 2,159 4.3%

    172 1,214 94 1,120 7.7% 12.0 48,996 62.8% 2,064 4.2%

    173 1,228 92 1,137 7.5% 12.4 47,782 61.3% 1,970 4.1%

    174 1,241 90 1,151 7.2% 12.8 46,554 59.7% 1,879 4.0%

    175 1,251 88 1,163 7.0% 13.2 45,314 58.1% 1,789 3.9%

    176 1,259 86 1,174 6.8% 13.7 44,063 56.5% 1,701 3.9%

    177 1,266 83 1,182 6.6% 14.2 42,803 54.9% 1,615 3.8%

    178 1,270 81 1,189 6.4% 14.7 41,538 53.3% 1,532 3.7%

    179 1,272 78 1,194 6.2% 15.2 40,268 51.6% 1,451 3.6%

    180 1,272 75 1,197 5.9% 16.0 38,996 50.0% 1,373 3.5%

    181 1,270 73 1,196 5.8% 16.3 37,724 48.4% 1,298 3.4%

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    0.0%

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    90.0%

    100.0%

    0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% 2.0% 2.6% 3.4% 4.2% 5.1% 6.0% 6.7% 7.3% 7.6% 7.8%

    ApprovalRate

    Portfolio Bad Rate

    Strategy Curve

    New:

    Approval Rate: 56%

    Bad Rate: 3.9%

    New:

    Approval Rate: 78.2%

    Bad Rate: 5.2%

    Strategy CurveMaintain Approval Rate

    Current:

    Approval Rate: 56%

    Bad Rate: 5.2%

    Setting the Cut-Off

    As a result of the new scorecard we have many options, amongst them are

    But which is the best option?

    Booking 22% more of the incoming applications but having the same bad rate

    Reducing the bad rate by 1.3 percentage points but still booking 56% of applications

    Or Is it something else?

    Strategy Criteria Approval Rate Bad Rate

    Current 56.0% 5.2%

    Strategy 1 Same Approval Rate 56.0% 3.9%

    Strategy 2 Same Bad Rate 78.2% 5.2%

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    Profitability

    This brings us back to the first question

    What is the target for the cut-off and the overall aim of business?

    In most cases the business target is to maximise profitability

    By balancing Risk and Reward the goal is:

    Reward (revenue) and Risk (losses) BREAK EVEN POINT

    Maximum Profit

    Setting Cut-Off-Application Scores

    Setting the Cut-Off based on maintaining approval or portfolio bad rate is

    straightforward but difficult to optimise:

    Still reject profitable business

    or

    Accept unprofitable business

    The answer is to correctly balance Risk and Reward!But what does this mean?

    Optimise profitability by use of:

    Profitability Analysis

    Modeling

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    Profitability

    Main Topics

    Cut Off Table

    Cut Off Objectives

    Profitability

    Profitability Considerations

    Practical Implications

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    Profitability

    The principles are straightforward:

    In correctly developed scores we have two categories of accounts:

    Goods

    Bads

    Each individual score has an associated probability that an applicant, if

    booked, will become Bad

    Therefore if we know

    The Reward from a Good

    AND The Risk from a Bad

    We can use this information to decide on the cut-off

    Setting The Cut-OffProfitability

    Steps:

    Use Bad Definition to create Profit & Loss Accounts for the two sub-

    portfolios

    Portfolio of Good Accounts

    Portfolio of Bad Accounts

    Find the Profit and Loss for each at the account level

    Use resulting Good/Bad ratio to set score cut-off

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    Setting The Cut-OffProfitability

    Required Information

    Either:

    All variables in Profit & Loss accounts calculated on an account by account

    basis

    Or:

    Portfolio Information for all variables

    and

    Flow Rates and Delinquent Balances

    Profit & Loss StatementGood Bad

    Gross Interest Revenue 27,205,678 490,000

    Cost of Funds 7,773,051 140,000

    Net Interest Revenue 19,432,627 350,000

    Fees 2,880,000 90,000

    Interchange Income 4,760,000 190,000

    Total Card Income 27,072,627 630,000

    Marketing Costs 4,800,000 200,000

    Acquisition Cost 2,400,000 100,000

    Operating Expense

    Premises 1,350,000 18,000Telecomms 220,000 12,000

    Systems etc 420,000 10,000

    Customer Service Costs 5,538,000 95,345

    Credit Collection Expense 300,500 276,000

    Total Expense 15,028,500 711,345

    Credit Losses 4,990,370

    Fraud Losses 2,332,800 97,200

    Total Profits before Tax 9,711,327 -5,168,915

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    Profit & Loss StatementGood Bad

    Gross Interest Revenue 27,205,678 490,000

    Cost of Funds 7,773,051 140,000

    Net Interest Revenue 19,432,627 350,000

    Fees 2,880,000 90,000

    Interchange Income 4,760,000 190,000

    Total Card Income 27,072,627 630,000

    Marketing Costs 4,800,000 200,000

    Acquisition Cost 2,400,000 100,000

    Operating Expense

    Premises 1,350,000 18,000

    Telecomms 220,000 12,000

    Systems etc 420,000 10,000

    Customer Service Costs 5,538,000 95,345

    Credit Collection Expense 300,500 276,000

    Total Expense 15,028,500 711,345

    Credit Losses 4,990,370

    Fraud Losses 2,332,800 97,200

    Total Profits before Tax 9,711,327 -5,168,915

    Accountsdesignated asGood in Scoredevelopment

    Profit & Loss StatementGood Bad

    Gross Interest Revenue 27,205,678 490,000

    Cost of Funds 7,773,051 140,000

    Net Interest Revenue 19,432,627 350,000

    Fees 2,880,000 90,000

    Interchange Income 4,760,000 190,000

    Total Card Income 27,072,627 630,000

    Marketing Costs 4,800,000 200,000

    Acquisition Cost 2,400,000 100,000

    Operating Expense

    Premises 1,350,000 18,000Telecomms 220,000 12,000

    Systems etc 420,000 10,000

    Customer Service Costs 5,538,000 95,345

    Credit Collection Expense 300,500 276,000

    Total Expense 15,028,500 711,345

    Credit Losses 4,990,370

    Fraud Losses 2,332,800 97,200

    Total Profits before Tax 9,711,327 -5,168,915

    Accounts

    designated as

    Bad in Score

    development

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    Profit & Loss Statement Account LevelGood Bad

    Gross Interest Revenue 283.4 122.5

    Cost of Funds 81.0 35.0

    Net Interest Revenue 202.4 87.5

    Fees 30.0 22.5

    Interchange Income 49.6 47.5

    Total Card Income 282.0 157.5

    Marketing Costs 50.0 50.0

    Acquisition Cost 25.0 25.0

    Operating Expense

    Premises 14.1 4.5

    Telecomms 2.3 3.0

    Systems etc 4.4 2.5

    Customer Service Costs 57.7 23.8

    Credit Collection Expense 3.1 69.0

    Total Expense 156.5 177.8

    Credit Losses 0.0 1247.6

    Fraud Losses 24.3 24.3

    Total Profits before Tax 101.2 -1,292.20

    Cut-Off Set at Score Yielding

    12.8 Goods:Bad Odds

    1,292.2/101.2 = 12.8

    At the score equivalent to Good:Bad Odds of 12.8:1 it is breakeven

    At Odds below 12.8:1 bookings are unprofitable

    Above Odds of 12.8:1 bookings are profitable

    At Score Range Level

    Score

    Estimated Revenue

    From

    Goods

    Loss From

    Bads

    Net Profit

    At ScoreTotal TTD Goods Bads Bad Rate G:B Odds

    169 1,161 1,062 99 8.5% 10.8 107,474 128,130 -20,655

    170 1,180 1,083 97 8.2% 11.2 109,600 125,541 -15,942

    171 1,198 1,103 95 7.9% 11.6 111,624 122,953 -11,329

    172 1,214 1,120 94 7.7% 12 113,344 121,659 -8,315

    173 1,228 1,136 92 7.5% 12.4 114,963 119,070 -4,107

    174 1,241 1,151 90 7.3% 12.8 116,481 116,482 0

    175 1,251 1,163 88 7.0% 13.2 117,696 113,893 3,802

    176 1,259 1,173 86 6.8% 13.7 118,708 111,305 7,403

    177 1,266 1,183 83 6.6% 14.2 119,720 107,422 12,298

    178 1,270 1,189 81 6.4% 14.7 120,327 104,833 15,493

    179 1,272 1,194 78 6.1% 15.2 120,833 100,951 19,882

    180 1,272 1,197 75 5.9% 16 121,136 97,068 24,068

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    Approving only above Good:Bad Odds of 12.8:1 yields the Maximum Total Profit

    At Odds below 12.8:1 the portfolio is less profitable

    Above Odds of 12.8:1 the portfolio is less profitable

    At Portfolio Level

    Score T TD AboveApproval

    Rate

    Goods

    Above

    Bads

    Above

    Portfolio

    Bad Rate

    Revenue

    From

    Goods

    Loss From

    BadsTotal Profit

    169 52,536 67.5% 50,180 2,356 4.5% 5,078,216 3,049,229 2,028,987

    170 51,375 66.0% 49,118 2,257 4.4% 4,970,742 2,921,100 2,049,642

    171 50,195 64.5% 48,035 2,160 4.3% 4,861,142 2,795,558 2,065,584

    172 48,997 62.9% 46,932 2,065 4.2% 4,749,518 2,672,606 2,076,913

    173 47,783 61.3% 45,812 1,971 4.1% 4,636,174 2,550,947 2,085,227

    174 46,555 59.7% 44,676 1,879 4.0% 4,521,212 2,431,877 2,089,335

    175 45,314 58.1% 43,525 1,789 3.9% 4,404,730 2,315,396 2,089,334

    176 44,063 56.5% 42,362 1,701 3.9% 4,287,034 2,201,502 2,085,532177 42,804 54.9% 41,189 1,615 3.8% 4,168,327 2,090,198 2,078,129

    178 41,538 53.3% 40,006 1,532 3.7% 4,048,607 1,982,776 2,065,832

    179 40,268 51.6% 38,817 1,451 3.6% 3,928,280 1,877,942 2,050,338

    180 38,996 50.0% 37,623 1,373 3.5% 3,807,448 1,776,992 2,030,456

    -1000000

    -500000

    0

    500000

    1000000

    1500000

    2000000

    2500000

    107 117 127 137 147 157 167 177 187 197 207 217 227 237 247

    Total

    Profit

    Score

    Portfolio Profit

    Score 174

    At Portfolio Level

    So is it possible to set the best cut-off without considering profitability?

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    Cut-Off Table

    Score TTD AboveApproval

    RateG:B Odds Bads Above

    Portfolio

    Bad RateTotal Profit

    161 60,954 78.2% 8.2 3,174 5.2% 1,739,263

    174 46,554 59.7% 12.8 1,879 4.0% 2,089,335

    176 44,063 56.5% 13.7 1,701 3.9% 2,085,532

    Scenarios

    Market ShareIncrease

    Reduce Losses

    Profitability Considerations

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    Main Topics

    Cut Off Table

    Cut Off Objectives

    Profitability

    Profitability Considerations

    Practical Implications

    ProfitabilityIs it Easy?

    Risk is easy...

    0.0%

    5.0%

    10.0%

    15.0%

    20.0%

    25.0%

    Up to 139 140 - 149 150 - 159 160 - 169 170 - 179 180 - 189 183 - 189 190 - 199 200 - 209 210+Application Score

    Ever 90+ Bad Rate

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    ProfitabilityIs it Easy?

    Product TypeBank PoliciesApproval Rate

    Delinquency LevelCollections

    Frauds MarketingTerms &

    Conditions

    Existing

    Customers

    Cross SellNew

    ClientsLimits

    UsageAttrition

    Account Maintenance

    ProfitabilityIs it Easy?

    Profitability is not - reality!

    735

    689

    531491

    530

    427 389366

    342309

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    Up to 139 140 - 149 150 - 159 160 - 169 170 - 179 180 - 189 183 - 189 190 - 199 200 - 209 210+

    Application Score

    Average Total Revenue by Application ScoreCredit Cards

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    ProfitabilityIs it Easy?

    Profitability is not - reality!

    0.0%

    10.0%

    20.0%

    30.0%

    40.0%

    50.0%

    60.0%

    70.0%

    80.0%

    90.0%

    100.0%

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    1000

    Up to 139 140 - 149 150 - 159 160 - 169 170 - 179 180 - 189 183 - 189 190 - 199 200 - 209 210+

    %

    Inactive

    AverageBalance

    Score

    Inactivity Rate and Average BalanceCredit Cards

    Average Balance% Inactive

    ProfitabilityIs it Easy?

    Profitability is not - reality!

    7,164

    3,340

    1,632

    830

    0

    2,000

    4,000

    6,000

    8,000

    10,000

    12,000

    96 48 24 12Tenor

    Instalment Interest Income By TenorLoans Portfolio

    Gross Interest Income

    Net Interest Income

    CoF

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    Key Questions

    Over What Period do you consider Costs and Revenues?

    For Tenor Loans, actual Loan Durations are easy to calculate

    For Revolving Loans how long should be considered?

    Profitability over 3 or 5 years will be very different to 20 years!!

    Many Credit Cards will have active life of 20+ years

    Key Questions

    What is the Real Value of a Customer?

    Should we consider Renewals?

    How should we consider the propensity of a customer to desire further

    products in the future?

    Handling of these questions greatly affects the cut-off decision Profitabilityrenewals, multiple products and greater time period

    Type of Applicants we want to approve

    Young applicants have greatest potential for growth

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    Cut-Off Strategy

    Main Topics

    Cut Off Table

    Cut Off Objectives

    Profitability

    Profitability Considerations

    Practical Implications

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    Single Score Cut-Off Strategy

    0.0%

    0.2%

    0.4%

    0.6%

    0.8%

    1.0%

    1.2%

    1.4%

    1.6%

    1.8%

    107 117 127 137 147 157 167 177 187 197 207 217 227 237 247

    PercentofPopulation

    Application Score

    Score Distribution

    AcceptReject

    Multiple Score Cut-Off Strategy

    0.0%

    0.2%

    0.4%

    0.6%

    0.8%

    1.0%

    1.2%

    1.4%

    1.6%

    1.8%

    107 117 127 137 147 157 167 177 187 197 207 217 227 237 247

    PercentofPopulation

    Application Score

    Score Distribution

    Reject AcceptGrey Area

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    Multiple Score Cut-Off Strategy

    In the Grey Area customers are referred for additional underwriting

    It generally shows a Lack of Confidence in Score

    It can make Sceptics more comfortable

    Can be useful as a temporary measure when the applicant distribution or

    performance is not known for instance:

    Generic scorecard

    - New Products

    - New Sources

    Multiple Score Cut-Off Strategy

    Considerations to be taken into account with this strategy are:

    What additional criteria are being considered?

    Are they already in the scorecard?

    Is it judgmental or can these be converted in to rules?

    Can underwriters make a better decision than the score?

    Can it be appropriately tracked and monitored?

    Are there comprehensive reject and approval codes?

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    0.0%

    5.0%

    10.0%

    15.0%

    20.0%

    25.0%

    Up to 139 140 - 149 150 - 159 160 - 169 170 - 179 180 - 189 183 - 189 190 - 199 200 - 209 210+

    BadR

    ate

    Score Ranges

    Probability of Default

    Cut Off

    Implications

    0.0%

    5.0%

    10.0%

    15.0%

    20.0%

    25.0%

    Up to 139 140 - 149 150 - 159 160 - 169 170 - 179 180 - 189 183 - 189 190 - 199 200 - 209 210+

    BadR

    ate

    Score Ranges

    Probability of Default

    Cut Off

    Implications

    Low Sides PerformanceGrey Area objectives

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    Implications

    Significant Profitability Implications:

    Your cut-off strategy effects your populations of customers

    Depending on the score type

    Attrition

    Risk

    Usage, etc.

    The score cut-off will impact

    Balances

    Delinquency Risk

    Ultimately, each score cut-off will impact your Profitability!!

    Additional Aspects

    1. Complicated Structures of 2 or 3+ Scores

    2. Risk Based Pricing

    3. Limits

    4. Macro Environment

    5. Basel II RequirementsPDE, LGD, EAD

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    Thank you!!