Current Status and Future Potential for Polyolefins, Tpos, And Tpes in the Global Automotive Market

8/11/2019 Current Status and Future Potential for Polyolefins, Tpos, And Tpes in the Global Automotive Market

1/38


2/38


3/38

3

G 1975

2.4 3.6%/ . C N . 1, , .


4/38

GLOBAL VEHICLE DEMAND SHIFT BY REGION

4


5/38

REGION PRODUCTION,MM VEHICLES

CAGR%/YR.

NOTE

2000 2015

China 2.5 22 16% - Reduced govt. incentives willslow growth in 2012

- Recent barriers to non-ChineseOEM investment

-

REGIONAL VEHICLE PROD N. GROWTH RATES 2000/2015

India 1.0 5 11%

S. America 2.5 5 5% - Brazil dominates

Europe 19.0 23 1% - Current overcapacity

- Stagnant marketJapan/Korea 12.5 13 0% - Yen strength Japan shift to

non-domestic production

NAFTA 17.0 17 0% - 13.8MM in 2012

SOURCE: ROBERT ELLER ASSOCIATES LLC, 20125


6/38

6


7/38

OEM CURRENT/FUTUREEXAMPLES

GLOBAL PLATFORM STRATEGY NOTE

VW - Passat - Has been in place for 30-40 years(e.g., Golf platform)

- Shifting from global platforms?- U.S. Passat is departure fromglobal platform strategy

- Borrows components andmodules from other models,as appropriate

- Strong VW entry intoEuropean A vehiclesegment

Honda - Civic- Accord

- Shifting from strict adherence tolobal latforms

- Flexible assembly lines allowmulti le models/re ional

GLOBAL PLATFORM STRATEG SHIFTS

- Acura

differentiationGM - Cruze

- Malibu- Reduce number of vehicle

platforms (30 in 2010 14 in2018)

- Increase vehicles per core globalplatform

- Cruze is first global model- Malibu to follow- Core platforms 90% of

production in 2018- Have been slower to global

platformsFord - Fiesta

- Focus- CUVs- C/D platform

(Fusion/Edge)

- One Ford strategy- Single Focus model for

U.S./Europe

- Move to global platforms- Reducing number of global

platforms from 11 9 by2013

SOURCE: ROBERT ELLER ASSOCIATES LLC, 2012 7


8/38

/ / E 2011/C C 064. 1 .

P S : GM C .

2011 C C E

8


9/38

1. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE MARKET:REGIONAL SHIFTS GLOBAL PLATFORMS

T : 3%/ .

BRIC : . W G : :

P : F , GM , VW

P 40% 2015, 34% 2010

G / :

S : , . ., 3 4 TPE A : TPE

9


10/38

2. ASIA PACIFIC ROLE IN THE GLOBAL AUTO MARKET

C E : 8.5% 2011; I : 5% 2011 E : 2011

40MM 2020, ?

GM VW: ( = 27%) C >2012?

XD/S )

A A , W W TPE :

C L I S ( ) R G (I ) S (F ) TSRC D (SBS ) T B (J ) P

M S (I ) P (G )10


11/38

AUTOMOTIVE PP COPOL MER AND TPO INDUSTR STRUCTURE

INDUSTR SECTOR SHARE,%

EXAMPLES COVERAGE

RESIN SUPPLIER/

CAPTIVE COMPOUNDER

70 L B

M /PE MS , S

M , S

GLOBAL

11

INDEPENDENTCOMPOUNDER

30 RF

W P

REGIONAL

INDUSTR STRUCTURE TRENDS

R T 1 (IAC, I ) M / O N. A ( ?) W OEM , T 1 A ( )


12/38


13/38

AUTO POL OLEFIN SHARES: NAFTA

PP FORM SHARE,%

EST. 2011DEMAND,MM LBS.

NOTE

N F /

47 565 I ()

TPO 53 635 TPO (

)

13

T 100 1,200

PP (% / 2000 2011):

2000: 7.6% 2010: 9.6%

U 5 :

S ,

I LGF PP,

: E A C ; C


14/38

SOME AUTO PP COMPOUND/TPO APPLICATIONS ARE MATURE

B ( / ) I ( ?, , )

E ( , , )

S

F

14


15/38

EXAMPLE GROWTH APPLICATIONS FOR AUTO PP COMPOUNDS

APPLICATIONS COMP D. DEMAND TREND

I /O

SGF PPPP

C SGFS VW (B )WIT 3 D

IP LGF PP S U LGF PP C , SGF PP

D LGF PP H

15

E SGF PP S F K (E )V ;

T T PP

B S ( . .

B / T PP R . O TPE

N : LGF PP SGF PP SGF ( LGF) SOURCE: ROBERT ELLER ASSOCIATES LLC, 2012


16/38

EXAMPLE OF PP S STEMS COST SAVE VIA INTEGRATION OF FUNCTIONS

16SOURCE: ROBERT ELLER ASSOCIATES LLC, 2012

P :D ( / )M : ( C 03 E A. )F : ( )E :E F P : ( ), F , FN : C C : D , 1.4

(A , )

: , . ,


17/38

5. THE TPE FAMILIES

TPE FAMILIES

OLEFINIC (o-TPEs) STYRENIC (SBCs) SUPER-TPVs PVCTPEsOTHERE-TPEs

NON-TPO TPEs COMPETINGIN THE AUTO TPE SECTOR

o-TPV SEBS(TPE-S)

VULCANIZEDSBC TPVs(TPES-V)

SILICONE

ACRYLATES

OTHER

COPE

COPA

TPUp-TPV(PARTIAL CROSSLINKED)

f-TPV(FULLY CROSSLINKED)


TPO

r/mydox/visio/TPE Fam Challenge to Rubber 2011 12pt.vsd // lg/myfiles/visio/TPE FamChallenge to Rubber 2011 12pt.vsd

OTHERS(a)

SBS

Note:(a) e.g., recently introduced melt processable polyurea-based TPEs


17


18/38

6. AUTOMOTIVE TPE SUBSTITUTION: KE DRIVERS

C . R / ( )

N : /

L ( CUV )

S ( )

F :

E , , (BSR)

R /S E ( . ., PP/K )

S /

C TPE .

D /

18


19/38


20/38

7. AUTOMOTIVE TPE TARGET APPLICATIONS, 2012

TARGETCOMPONENTS

TPE TYPEHIGH

STIFFNESSTPOs

LOWSTIFFNESS

TPOs

SEBS r-TPOs o-TPV COPE s-TPV

Exterior:

Panel XRocker Panel X X

Fascia X X*

Body/Glazing Seals X X X

Interior:Airbag Door X* X* X* X* X* X

Trim X

IP Skins X* X?* X*

Door trim skins X X* X*

Steering Wheel X

HVAC Louvers X*

Under-carpet flooracoustic mat

X

X* = , ,

(C .) 20


21/38

AUTOMOTIVE TPE TARGET APPLICATIONS, 2012(C .)

TARGETCOMPONENTS

TPO or TPE TYPE

HIGHSTIFFNESS

TPOs

LOWSTIFFNESS

TPOs

SEBS r-TPOs o-TPV COPE s-TPV

Under-hood:

Cowl Vent Seal X* X* X*

Ducting X* X?

Hose X*

Wiring X X X X

Oil/Gas Resistant X X

Underbody shields X

X* = , ,

21SOURCE: ROBERT ELLER ASSOCIATES LLC, 2012


22/38

APPROACHES TO 2 SHOT OR OVERMOLDING OF TPEFOR AUTOPLASTIC COMPONENTS

TPE

Substrate

(rigid segment)

TPE Rigid Segment

TYPE STRUCTURE NOTE/EXAMPLE APPLICATION

Overmold,Multi-material

Mold,

2-shot Mold

Side by Side

- Soft touch interiors- Small, tactile parts- Some 2-tone applications

- 2-tone- Door trim, console, IP- Bumper fascia

SOURCE: ROBERT ELLER ASSOCIATES LLC, 2012/ / / E A 2011. // / / / E A 2011.

Edging

Co-blow Mold

- Body/glazing seals (profiles)- Cowl vent seals- Co-extrusion or 2-shot

- Boots/bellows- Under-hood

. .

. .

.

. .

.

.

.

.

.. .

. .

. .

. .

.

.

. .

TPE (flexible) Rigid

Co-extrusionBlow Mold orCo-extrusion

TPE outerETP inner

Under-hood:- Hose- Duct

22


23/38

AUTOMOTIVE TPE TARGET ONES

Oil seals

DuctingAcoustic barrier

role for POEs

Skins: IP, door trim

Glazing seals(static, dynamic)

Body seals

Exterior skins

Lighting seals

SOURCE: ROBERT ELLER ASSOCIATES LLC, 2012r/mydox/Visio/TPE Battle Zones 2012.vsd // lg/myfiles/Visio/TPE Battle Zones 2012.vsd

Cowl ventgasket

Dust covers(bellows)

Glass runchannels

Belt linemolding

Lightingseals

Acousticmats Under-carpet acoustic mats

23


24/38

AUTO TPE TARGET MARKETS: INTERIOR SKINS

T : I , , , M (2 ) :

C . TPV SBC TPE F TPE

C . ( A ) TPE ( / ) C R

L IP 2 TPE / 2 R BSR G

24


25/38

INSTRUMENT PANEL SKIN SUBSTITUTION OBJECTIVES

E E ? I / R VOC/

P S /M ( TPO) S 30 C H ( ) C / & ( ) M L UV ( E)

H C R IP (2 ; ?) S

25


26/38


27/38

IP SKIN PROCESS SHARES IN N. AMERICA

PROCESS SHARE,%

MATERIAL TYPE NOTE

HARD/SOFT IP BREAKDOWN

SOFT IP MATERIALS SHARES

IP TYPE % NOTE

Hard 60 Primarily PP-based

Soft 40 See process shares below

us casmolding

- om na es a ou- TPU at Japanese OEMs- TPO has not made significant

penetration

- - aseslush seekingentry

- Inteva patent

Thermoform 15 - TPO compact and foam backeddominate

- Still some PVC/ABS

PU spray 10 - Expensive- Primarily on high end models

Leather, other 3 - High end models - Hand wrap



28/38

INTERIOR SOFT TRIM/SOFT TOUCH MATERIALS/PROCESSES

INJECTION

CONV. INJECTION

SOFT TOUCH PAINT

OVERMOLD

-- SEBS-- TPV-- TPU

2-SHOT

SKIN PROCESSES

BACK INJECTION

-- COATED FABRIC-- FOILS-- UNCOATED FABRICS

28

r/mydox/Visio/Interior Soft Tri m n Touch Compet 2012.vsd // l g/myfiles/Visio/Interior Soft Trim n Touch Compet 2012.vsdSOURCE: ROBERT ELLER ASSOCIATES LLC, 2012

-- TPU-- TPU-- BLENDS-- PVC(a)-- TPO-- SEBS (TPE-S)

SLUSH MOLD (CAST)

BACK INJECTION ORLOW PRESSURE

MOLDING

NOTE: (a) Polyurethane dispersion (PUD) coated fabrics gaining share

THERMOFORM

COATED FABRICS(a)VAC FORM FOILS

-- TPO-- PVC-- TPU ALLOY SHEET

HAND WRAP(a)OR VAC FORM

BACKINJECTION


29/38

AUTO INTERIOR: COST/VALUE ADD CURVE MATERIAL/PROCESS COMBINATIONS

T F : T TPO PVC

S M : PVC

S M : TPU TPE S

L PUD/

H W

29

C O S T

S I : T PP , TPO F ( ) PP

2 : I , ( ) I

K , ,

C M : T ( ) ( )

N : ( ) F ( ) D

INCREASING VALUE ( , , )

( ) TPE SOURCE: ROBERT ELLER ASSOCIATES LLC, 2012


30/38

COMPARISON OF SLUSH/SPRA IP SKIN CAPABILITIES

PROPERTY SLUSH TYPE SPRAY PU NOTE

PVC TPE (TPE-S) TPU

Raw material cost,$/lb.

Lowest Moderate Highest -- Inteva patent onTPE-S

Typical skinweight, lbs.

3 3.5 1.6 2.0 2 2.5

Low temp. airbagdeployment(heat aging effect)

Some degrada-tion after heat

aging

No deploymentperformance

loss

-- --

E after UVexposure (2500 kJ,89C)

Highest Very low(< 1)

Very low(< 1)

Moderate OEMs require E = < 3

Shrinkage on heataging

Moderatecurling

Remains flat(no curling)

Minorcurling

-- Shrinkageincreasesvisibility ofairbag tear seam

VOC Medium Lowest High High

Fog Acceptable Acceptable High Acceptable Acceptable =~ 125 g/gram

Process window Narrow Wide -- --



31/38

AUTO TPE TARGET APPLICATIONS: BOD /GLA ING SEALS

I : PVC, EPDM, ( ), PU

TPE : TPV, SEBS ( TPE TPE S), SEBS V (TPES V)

T 1

TPE

H

31


32/38

BOD /GLA ING SEALS MAJOR TPE TARGETS

Trunk seal

Rear light seal

Sun roof seal

Cowl vent seal(TPE seal reduces BSR

between glass/plastic)

Hood seal

Fixed glazingWindshield (difficult target, but TPE substitution starting)

Photo Source: Toyoda Gosei

Mirror gasket

Belt line sealDoor seal

Glass run channel

Lighting sealDoor sill plate

Wheel arch seal

Engine shield (recyclate?)

r/mydox/Visio/Toyoda Gosei NA Seal Syst Pic 2011.vsd // lg/ myfiles/Visio/Toyoda Gosei NA Seal Syst Pic 2011.vsd32

O /G A G S A S A O A G


33/38

BOD /GLA ING SEALS MAJOR TPE TARGET

EPDM S /S T SEPDM D S

P S : REA LLC, 2012 P S : REA LLC, 2012

F TPV . R S A (25 EPDM TPV .



34/38

AUTO INDUSTR CONSOLIDATION EFFECTS


35/38

E ( / ) T 1

I T 1 ,

D ( ) OEM

AUTO INDUSTR CONSOLIDATION EFFECTS

P

S T 1 ( ) ( TPV / )

E : C S S (E ) F P (G , S , F ), P O P P ,

35


36/38

SUMMAR


37/38

SUMMAR

T G 3 3.2%/ .G C , BRI , ( N. AG ( 40% . 2015): G TPE G TPE S /

I ( , T 1 ) W OEM/T 1 C ( ?) C C 2020? I S /

D : S S V S

TPO / 37

SUMMAR (C )


38/38

SUMMAR (C .)

S :R / PP, TPO

I / TPE

B 1

M :H TPE (COPE . TPV)

SEBS TPV

SEBS . TPU ( PVC) ( ?)

B TPE

PP ( );

TPE PP

38

Current Status and Future Potential for Polyolefins, Tpos, And Tpes in the Global Automotive Market

Documents

Transcript of Current Status and Future Potential for Polyolefins, Tpos, And Tpes in the Global Automotive Market