Current Population Projections and Trends23 M. Covered 4 Variant Projections from the UN’s World...
Transcript of Current Population Projections and Trends23 M. Covered 4 Variant Projections from the UN’s World...
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Overview: Current Population Projections and Trends
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10,000 BC to 2000 AD – Log Scale Population
2014: 7,243,784,0002014 will add 81 Million
• One Day = 221,912• One Hour = 9,246• One Minute = 154
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Instant Replacement: Increments, Total Increase and Total Global Population
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Population Momentum!
A history of high fertility has resulted in a high proportion of women in the reproductive ages, and these ensure high crude birth rates long after the
age-specific rates have dropped.
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UN Variants – High, Median, Instant Replacement & Low
16.6 Billion
10.8 Billion
6.7 Billion
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3 Fertility Assumptions Informing Three Major Population Variants
End of Century High Fertility = 2.47
End of Century Medium Fertility = 1.99
End of Century Low Fertility = 1.51
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High Variant Population: Total, Total Addition and Annual Increments
+ 9.4 Billion
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Median Variant Population: Total, Total Addition and Annual Increments
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6.7 Billion
Low Variant Population: Total, Total Addition and Annual Increments
Peak Addition of 1.2 Billion
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Low Variant TFR with Total Population Curve; First “Reduction” at 2090
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Median Variant Regional Population Curves
5.16 Billion
4.18 Billion
Asia Peak in 2054
4.71 Billion
1.13 Billion
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Low Variant Regional Population Curves
4.63 Billion
2.82 Billion
Asia Peaks in 2036
Africa Peaks in 2097
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Other Regions: Median Vs. Low Population
+/-249 M
+/-309 M
+/-175 M
+/-23 M
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Covered 4 Variant Projections from the UN’s World Population Prospects 2012 Revision
1. Instant Replacement2. High Fertility3. Median Fertility4. Low Fertility
Compared and Contrasted Regional Growth
1. Median vs Low Population Projections
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Top 15 Low Variant Growers
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16 -30 Low Variant Growers Contribution to Global Growth
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“Top 30” Shrinkers to 2049, Low Variant
1 to 15 16 to 30
Represents 90% of Total Global Consolidation
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UN Variants – High, Median, Low & Constant Fertility
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High Variant Annual Increments, TFR Curve and Growth Rate
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Median Variant Annual Increments, TFR Curve and Growth Rate
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Low Variant Annual Increments, TFR Curve and Growth Rate
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Growth stops in 2049, after adding 1.2 billion.
• 146 Countries Add Appx. 1.5 billion.
• 77 Countries Shrinking by a Total of Appx. 300 million.
• (Net Gain of 1.2 Billion)
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“Top 15” Growers to 2049, Low Variant= Contribution to Global
= % In-Country Increase
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Top 30 Absolute Growers by 2049, Low Variant
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Top 30 Absolute Shrinkers by 2049, Low Variant